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Trump’s 100 days: the end of the West as we know it

2025/4/29
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World in 10

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Jim Townsend: 我认为特朗普上台加速了美国几十年来在国际角色定位上的摇摆,导致了西方世界秩序的终结,这指的是自二战以来,直到大概20世纪90年代的西方世界秩序。冷战结束后,美国一直在纠结于自身在世界上的角色:是继续扮演世界警察的角色?自由世界秩序对我们来说意味着什么?我们的角色是什么?欧洲的角色又是什么?我们的敌人是谁?几十年来,美国一直在努力解决这个问题,并与回归孤立主义的倾向作斗争。特朗普的出现,实际上是几十年来这种趋势的加速。美国试图弄清楚自己想要扮演什么角色,而现在,“让美国再次伟大”的群体已经接管了这一进程,这将使我们与我们自二战以来,甚至自冷战结束以来所建立的一切脱节,即建立一个新的世界秩序,一个自由世界秩序。然后突然间,这种加速剂出现了……特朗普及其支持者有不同的看法,他们认为我们需要改变方向,而不是回到1945年到1990年的状态。他们认为,我们需要一个更符合美国利益的方向,而不是承担所有人的负担。我从未想过会看到这一幕,但事实就是这样。 Jim Townsend: 我认为美国从未被西方盟友掠夺,而是承担了过多的负担。在我从事这个行业期间,从1982年开始,我从未觉得我们被掠夺,或者被占便宜。你可能会和一些“让美国再次伟大”的支持者谈谈,他们可能会这么说,但我个人的经验是,我们领导了西方,并且以一种我们承担了可能应该由其他人承担的负担的方式领导了西方。当然,有一种感觉是,作为一个领导者,我们必须做出一些牺牲,因为我们也从中获得了许多好处。我认为,最终,人们认识到了这种好处,无论我们是否在海外设有基地,或者我们的盟友多少次与我们并肩作战。我们有盟友会在北约或其他地方向我们提供建议和咨询。我们有贸易关系,有文化关系。美国拥有很大的影响力,我们也消耗了世界上大量的资源。但是我们能够解决所有这些问题,并作为一个整体的西方世界一起工作。所以对我来说,并没有一种感觉是我们被掠夺了,或者我们是无助的受害者,被占了便宜。即使在贸易方面,我认为在过去几个月里,我们都了解到贸易关系并非表面那样简单。它们反映的东西不仅仅是某种游戏得分,有赢家和输家。你知道,世界并非如此运作。因此,那些认为我们被占了便宜、我们是欧盟的受害者、欧盟是我们的敌人、他们想方设法地损害我们的人(就像特朗普说的那样),这种说法并不符合实际情况。在我看来,我从未真正见过这种情况发生。 Jim Townsend: 美国盟友为美国利益付出了巨大代价,但美国民众对此知之甚少。我们会要求盟友前往伊拉克或阿富汗等地,他们就会去。即使只是派出一个中队飞机,他们也会去,即使这些盟友觉得很难向他们的人民解释为什么要这样做。我本人会去华盛顿的这些国家大使馆,说,嘿,我们当然可以使用你们的F-16参与利比亚空战或巴尔干时期科索沃空战。有很多次,盟友……为我们流血。这在美国并没有得到很好的理解。但是盟友们,如果你想谈论那些感到受害的人,你知道,在伊拉克战争之后,一些盟友离开了那里,心想,哦,我的上帝,我们为什么要这样做?所以我认为我们从这件事中得到的比美国人民知道的要多得多。我知道,因为我亲眼所见。而我为今天我们不再拥有那种领导能力而感到悲痛。以及与盟友的关系,我可以去说,我们需要F-16执行这项任务。盟友会说,没问题。相反,我们将在这里和那里寻求帮助。盟友会说,好吧,我们得考虑一下。 Jim Townsend: 自二战以来,没有任何个人对世界造成的损害比特朗普更大。这绝对是史无前例的。仅就西方而言,这已经对美国的承诺和可靠性造成了打击,承诺和可靠性是很难触及的,但它们确实存在,并且是关系的基础。你知道,对美国做出承诺后会遵守承诺,或者我们带来的稳定性,你可以依赖这一点,这种想法造成打击。现在可以质疑这一点,这会影响到每一个人,因为许多国家会根据美国多年前做出的承诺来制定路线,无论那是他们的军队、外交政策、国内政策还是贸易。他们根据美国多年来做出的承诺,承诺我们总是会支持他们,因此他们会投资美元或做这些事情。而突然间,不仅要质疑这一点,而且要彻底破坏这一点,这是自二战结束以来发生的最大事件之一。1949年,我们建立了北约。这是美国第一次摆脱孤立主义,对其他国家做出承诺。然后这种情况一直持续到唐纳德·特朗普。突然间,它变成了一个保护性勒索,而不是一代又一代美国人做出的神圣承诺。 Jim Townsend: 特朗普的政策如同炮弹,正在瓦解西方的基础结构。我同意你所描绘的图景。西方的基础和结构,基于你所谈论的个人联系,而且有很多这样的联系,是非常坚实的。但我认为我们所看到的是,你知道,这就像一座城堡。对于一座城堡来说,如果你得到一门火炮,并且向城墙发射足够的炮弹,这些城墙就会开始坍塌。至少它会震动城堡内部的砌体。我们现在看到的是很多炮弹击中这座城堡。但它还没有倒塌。你是绝对正确的。但我认为我们在这里谈论的,与其说是炮弹对抗城堡,不如说是白蚁已经进入城堡的木质结构。这些白蚁正在破坏城堡的结构。因此,这座城堡能够承受一些打击,但我不知道它还能承受多久,考虑到其结构已经被特朗普破坏和吞噬。这就是白蚁的目标。信任,可靠性,承诺,荣誉。这就是白蚁的工作所在。这意味着城墙不像以前那么坚固了。这就是我担心的。

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I'm Lucy Andrews from the Times and Sunday Times Feel Better About Money podcast. And this week, we're sponsored by Halifax in partnership with the Sunday Times Best Places to Live. Each week, myself and Holly Mead talk about a single subject such as mortgages and home buying to give you the insights and information you can use to make your money work better for you. Listen to Feel Better About Money wherever you get your podcasts.

Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Alex Dibble and Toby Gillis. Donald Trump's first 100 days back in the White House have been nothing if not wave-making across the entire globe. In one recent interview, the leader of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, declared...

the West as we know it no longer exists. We're exploring that today and looking at it from a historical perspective with our guest Jim Townsend, the former Pentagon official who served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence for European and NATO policy. Jim, I know that you agree that it is the end of the West as we knew it. What does that mean exactly and is it necessarily a negative thing?

Well, you know, that's an important question, and I guess I should really try to clarify what I meant by that. You know, it's the end of the West as we knew it from the Second World War,

probably up until maybe the 1990s, when certainly in the United States, you could detect a split, not as pronounced as today, but a split of the United States trying to figure out what does it want to do now that the Cold War is over? Are we still the policemen of the world? How much does this liberal world order mean to us? What's our role in this? What's the role of Europe in this?

Who's the enemy that we are linked up against? And so as you go through the various decades since that time, you began to see the U.S. struggle with this and fight with this tendency to go back to the isolationist days where we were all inwardly focused.

And so what we see with Trump today is really an acceleration of a trend line that goes back a couple of decades where the United States tries to figure out what role does it want to have. And right now, the MAGA crowd has taken over in terms of plotting that course and

where we would be so divorced in a lot of ways from what we've all been building, certainly not just since World War II, but since the end of the Cold War, building out this new world order, you know, the liberal world order. Then suddenly with this accelerant where...

There are other views about that with the Trump people, and they've decided, look, we think we need to go in another direction, not where we were 1945 through 1990, a direction that has more of U.S. interests in mind. We were not bearing everybody's burden. And I never thought I would see that, but we are. Jim, Donald Trump has spoken a fair bit about how he's trying to redress the balance after years of being effectively used by the rest of the West.

Is there any period since the Second World War where that has been the case, where the U.S. has been essentially pillaged by its allies? Well, you know, it depends on your definition of pillage. I mean, I would say in my time working in this industry, beginning on a professional basis in 1982,

I have never felt that we were being pillaged in the sense that we were being taken advantage of. You might talk to some MAGA people who might say that, but my experience has been that we have led the West and led it in such a way that we took on burdens that maybe should have been more properly taken on by others. There certainly is a feeling that as a leader, we have to make some sacrifices because we gain a lot of benefit from that too.

And I think there was in the end of the day, there was a recognition of that kind of benefit in terms of whether we had bases overseas or we had allies that went with us into battle so many times. We had allies that would advise and counsel us at NATO or other places. We had trade relationships. We had cultural relationships. And the U.S. had a lot of influence. And we consumed a lot of the world's resources, too.

But we were able to work all of this out and work together as the West. And so there was not to me a feeling that we were being pillaged or helpless victims being taken advantage of.

Even in the terms of trade, I think we've all learned over the past couple of months how trading relationships are not what they seem. They reflect other things than some type of game score where there's winners and losers. And, you know, that's not how the world works. And so people who feel that we've been taken advantage of, that we are victims of the EU, the EU is out to, they're our enemy, they're out to screw us, as Trump said, that that's not how

things worked. And in my experience, I never really saw a period where that happened. Jim, you mentioned allies going into battle with the US over the years. Can you expand a bit on that? How has the US utilized those relationships for its own ends? We would ask allies to go to Iraq or Afghanistan or other things and they would go.

They would go even if it was just with a squadron of planes and they would take casualties, even though those allies felt it was hard to explain to their people why they were doing this. I personally would go to these countries at their embassies in Washington and say, hey, we could sure use your F-16s to participate in the Libya air campaign or Kosovo air campaign during the Balkan days. I mean, there are so many times when the allies...

shed blood for us. And that was not well understood in the United States. But allies, if you want to talk about people feeling victimized, you know, after Iraq, there's some allies that came away from that going, oh my God, why did we do that? So I think we got a lot more from this than American people know. I know because I saw it. And I mourn the time today where we don't have that kind of leadership ability anymore.

And relationship with allies where I can go and say, we need F-16s to go on this mission. And the allies would say, not a problem. And instead, we're going to ask for help here and there. And allies are going to say, well, we'll have to think about it.

You're pretty clear that the US then has benefited more from its role of world leader than it has lost. So in your mind, can you think of a single individual who has set the world back further since the Second World War than Donald Trump? It is absolutely unprecedented.

And just sticking to the West, it's been body blows as the idea of the U.S. commitment, the reliability of the United States, commitment, reliability, two things that is hard to touch, but is there and is an underpinning of a relationship. You know, having body blows to the idea that when the U.S. makes a commitment, we stand by it or the stability that we bring, you can rely on.

The idea that that can be now questioned, it's something that impacts everyone because a lot of nations set off on a course, whether it's their military forces or it's their foreign policy or domestically or trade. They set off on a course based on a commitment made by the United States years ago.

that we always would stand behind. And therefore you invest in dollars or you do these things. And to have that all of a sudden, not just questioned, but absolutely undermined is one of the biggest things to happen since the end of World War II. 1949, we set up NATO. And that was the first time where the United States came out of its isolationist shell, if you will, and made commitments to other nations.

Then that held up until Donald Trump. And suddenly it became a protection racket instead of a, you know, holy commitment made by generations of Americans.

Over the last 80 odd years, Jim, dozens of international diplomatic institutions have been born. I get that those bodies are being forced by Trump to adapt, but within them are interpersonal relationships where politics is almost secondary, isn't it? Isn't it those relationships rather than a temporary leader that ensures the West endures? I agree with that picture that you're drawing.

The foundation and the structure of the West, based on those personal contacts that you're talking about, and there's an array of them, is very solid. But I think what we've seen is, you know, it's like a castle. With a castle, if you get a piece of artillery and you fire enough cannonballs into those walls, those walls start to crumble. At least it shakes up the masonry inside of that castle.

What we're seeing right now is a lot of cannonballs smacking into that castle. But it hasn't tumbled. You're absolutely right. But I think what we're talking about here are not necessarily cannonballs going up against the castle as much as termites that have gotten into the wooden superstructure of that castle.

And these termites are undermining those structures of that castle. So that castle is being able to sustain some of these body blows, but I just don't know how long it's going to be able to sustain it given the superstructure that has been undermined and eaten away by Trump. That's what the termites go after. Trust, it's reliability, it's commitment, honor.

And that's where the termites have done their work. And that means that wall is not as strong as it used to be. And that's what I worry about.

OK, Jim Townsend, thank you very much. And Jim will be back with us tomorrow when we'll take a look at how the last 100 days is likely actually to impact the future. Who might lead this new world order? And can the US ever regain its position as the country all others fear, respect and follow in equal measure? For now, though, thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. We'll see you tomorrow.

I'm Lucy Andrews from the Times and Sunday Times Feel Better About Money podcast. And this week, we're sponsored by Halifax in partnership with the Sunday Times Best Places to Live. Each week, myself and Holly Mead talk about a single subject such as mortgages and home buying to give you the insights and information you can use to make your money work better for you. Listen to Feel Better About Money wherever you get your podcasts.

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