Trump's minerals deal - Ukraine's security left uncertain
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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Alex Stibble and Toby Gillis. A framework of an agreement between the US and Ukraine, giving America access to Ukraine's huge horde of terrorists.

of rare earth minerals, which Donald Trump says will be worth trillions of dollars, is in place. But it does not include specific security guarantees for Ukraine after the war with Russia concludes. Vladimir Zelensky says he has, though, secured a sentence on security guarantees in the agreement, which he hopes will lead to further deals between the two nations in the future.

Our guest today is The Times' assistant US editor, David Charter. David, what do we know about the agreement at this moment in time?

Well, we haven't seen the final draft that the Ukrainians have agreed to. They rejected earlier drafts because the conditions were rather onerous for them. And also there was no reference at all to security guarantees. It appears that when we do see the final draft, there will be not an explicit reference to specific security guarantees by America, but it's going to be implicit, I think,

in the fact that America will want to exploit and safeguard its economic interests in Ukraine. And therein lies the form of wording, I think, that we'll get on security guarantees, because all along, Trump has been pretty clear that the actual security for perhaps a demilitarized zone between Ukraine and Russia will be the responsibility of the Europeans.

So it's either going to be implicit in this document or it's going to be relying upon striking a security guarantee that is enforced by the Europeans.

Volodymyr Zelensky is going to have to put a lot of trust in Donald Trump here, isn't he? If the security guarantees are only, as you put it, implied, or even if they simply rely on Europe, because he has always said true security involves a US backstop.

I'm not surprised because Zelensky himself originated the idea of an economic agreement with America, seeing it as the best way to bind in U.S. interests and implicit security as well for Ukraine, because America would be heavily invested in the country.

but also with the provision that there will be some kind of security arrangement that the Russians have to agree to as part of the final peace deal. There will have to be

some kind of physical presence in some way by the Europeans to safeguard Ukraine. And that's all we know at the moment because we haven't seen the final draft of this. But the Ukrainians wanted to use it to get Zelensky into the White House to have a face-to-face meeting to try and redress

What they saw as a dramatically worrying imbalance that was developing with all of the Trump attacks on Zelensky personally and the absence of any demands on Russia at this stage, whilst U.S. and Russia talks continue and are continuing later this week.

David, a lot that I've read around this deal has suggested that these rare earths will be almost prohibitively expensive to mine. Do you think Trump truly intends to access them? Or is this deal purely for the optics of procuring the right to something so valuable? Yeah, I think Trump is a dealmaker, but at his level, it is rather broad brush and

And I don't think he's necessarily engaged with the intricacies of how you get it refined. Plus, as well as the mining difficulties, there's the fact that a lot of it appears to be in the east of Ukraine, much of it in occupied territory. So they'd have to be

an agreement with Russia as well, if some of the mining has to take place in those parts of Ukraine. And we don't know the status of that land yet. So there are a lot of unknowns.

But Trump wanted, as ever, to prove his mettle as a dealmaker and to make the point that the Biden administration had opened the American taxpayers' checkbook for Ukraine and he wanted payback. And this is a tangible, Trump is always interested in a tangible sign of

redressing the balance, if you like, for the American taxpayer. And this is it really is a far reaching deal. I'm told when you see it, you're going to be amazed to see just how much the Americans have got their hands on in Ukraine. It is not just rare earth metals, but it's going to be oil and gas. And they wanted control over Ukrainian port business as well. We'll see if they get that.

Now, David, I realise this is existential for Ukraine, but if that is the case, Zelensky is giving a lot away for seemingly very little. If when he then goes to the White House this week, he asks for more support, will Trump just say no? Because, I mean, he's already got everything he wants. Well, we'll see is one answer to that. But I think

This is regarded as a necessary deal by Ukraine to bind in America to its future. I mean, they're looking way beyond Trump here. As you suggested earlier,

getting these minerals out of the ground and making a go of mining in Ukraine is not something that's going to be done tomorrow. It's going to take years and years. So this is a very long-term horizon that Zelensky is looking at, not just the next couple of years. But most importantly as well, he wanted to get himself back at the table. Trump was beginning to suggest that it wasn't important to have Zelensky back

even in the peace talks that are already underway with Russia, between Russia and America. And so he needed to find a way back into the room to make sure that the Ukrainian point of view is heard when the carve-up of, to put it bluntly, of Ukraine is happening on the table. And

It's a bit of a hackneyed phrase, but if you're not at the restaurant table, you're on the menu. David, linked to this, particularly if there is to be a European security guarantee written into this rare earth minerals deal, is the fact that yesterday the British government announced it would increase spending on defence to 2.5% of GDP by 2027. That is a 0.2% increase.

How has this been seen by Donald Trump and his administration? Yes, it's barely registered on the radar screen here so far. So Keir Starmer is going to have to sell that over here for all he's worth and really impress upon the Americans that it is a big deal and that he's also serious about getting to 3%, which is

really the minimum, I think, that Trump is anticipating for NATO members. I'm afraid that there's so much going on in America at the moment with the domestic agenda. Focus has been elsewhere in the last 24 hours. Of course, Starmer follows in the footsteps of President Macron of France and

who did a good job of communicating the European demands, but fundamentally left empty-handed. And finally, David, I'm interested to hear your thoughts on Starmer's likely tactics with Trump this week. You mentioned how Macron got nothing. I wonder how robust you think these European leaders can be with the American president behind closed doors. Is it just as delicate as how they treat him in front of the press?

I think you've got to be robust. I think Macron has a long history with Trump of at least arguing his corner. And so Trump in the moment may pull a face, say something contrary. But fundamentally, Trump does respect people who stick to their guns. Now, Starmer has to use all his diplomatic powers to stick to his guns.

Even if the awkward questions come in public, he has to find a way to deliver his arguments without being overly critical, but without ceding points that are simply wrong.

OK, David Charter, The Times' assistant US editor, thank you for joining us. We'll be looking at the changing UK-US relationship over the coming days with Sakhir Starmer's talks with Donald Trump on Thursday, seen by many as Europe's, potentially now, most likely route to swaying the president to a more sympathetic attitude towards Ukraine. If you'd like to hear why, have a listen to Monday's episode where we discussed Europe's plans for cajoling Donald Trump into their way of thinking.

That's it for today, though. Thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. See you tomorrow.