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cover of episode Why China could be the winner on ‘Liberation Day’

Why China could be the winner on ‘Liberation Day’

2025/4/2
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World in 10

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Jonathan Hillman
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Jonathan Hillman: 我认为特朗普总统使用关税作为首要手段来施加全球影响,以及为普通美国人争取国际平等的做法存在诸多问题。关税政策实施速度过快,缺乏可预测性,这使得与贸易伙伴进行谈判变得困难。这种缺乏透明度和稳定性的做法,增加了国际关系紧张的风险,并可能导致报复性措施。此外,关税政策缺乏清晰的目标和时间表,进一步加剧了不确定性。许多公司因为这种不确定性而处于停滞状态,无法进行长期规划,这反过来又对经济增长和投资造成了负面影响。关税政策还会带来一系列其他经济风险,例如通货膨胀上升,损害美国出口商的利益,并加剧国际贸易紧张局势。在外交层面,关税政策也可能损害美国与其盟友的关系,因为这些盟友可能会为了自身利益而寻求与中国的合作。虽然可能会有谈判,但我对这些谈判能否成功并得到有效执行表示怀疑。总的来说,我认为特朗普的关税政策存在很大的风险,可能导致意外的升级和不确定性,最终损害美国的经济和外交利益。 Toby Gillis: 我们讨论了特朗普总统在所谓的‘解放日’宣布的全面关税措施,以及这些措施对全球可能产生的连锁反应。我们探讨了这些关税措施是否是经过深思熟虑的谈判策略,或者仅仅是一场大胆的公关策略,以及是否存在可能增强特朗普最大对手——中国——实力的意外后果。 Alex Dibble: 我们关注到关税政策可能带来的意外后果,这些后果可能会削弱美国作为经济和安全领导者的地位,甚至会给中国带来优势。我们还探讨了关税政策可能导致的报复性措施,以及这些措施可能对全球经济和地缘政治格局产生的影响。我们特别关注了美国与盟友关系可能恶化,以及其他国家可能转向与中国合作的可能性。

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This chapter analyzes Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs announced on "Liberation Day." Experts discuss whether this is a strategic negotiation tactic, a PR maneuver, or a combination of both. The potential for unintended consequences, including the strengthening of China's position, is explored. Concerns about economic risks, diplomatic fallout, and the uncertainty created by these tariffs are highlighted.
  • Trump's tariffs announced on "Liberation Day", causing global reaction
  • Debate on whether it's a negotiation tactic or PR stunt
  • Concerns about unintended consequences and strengthening China's position
  • Risks of economic uncertainty, diplomatic tensions, and retaliation

Shownotes Transcript

As the world reacts to Donald Trump’s tariff announcement on ‘Liberation Day,’ we explore its potential ripple effects and the ways it could reshape the world. Is this a calculated negotiation tactic or a bold PR manoeuvre, and could there be unintended consequences that strengthen Trump's great adversary, China? Jonathan Hillman, Senior Fellow for geoeconomics at the Council on Foreign Relations, explains why he believes that is likely to be the case.

The World in 10 is the Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Expert analysis of war, diplomatic relations and cyber security from The Times' foreign correspondents and military specialists. 

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