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cover of episode GOP Lessons From the Christmas Shutdown Brinkmanship

GOP Lessons From the Christmas Shutdown Brinkmanship

2024/12/24
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WSJ Opinion: Potomac Watch

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迈克·约翰逊 (Mike Johnson)
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Kyle Peterson: 本期节目讨论了国会避免政府停摆的事件,以及由此引发的关于共和党未来策略和内部团结的讨论。其中,特朗普和马斯克对最初法案的反对,以及拜登政府在事件中的缺位,都成为了讨论的焦点。 Kim Strassel: 最终通过的法案比最初提案精简,删除了一些条款,但仍包含巨额支出,且未延长债务上限,这引发了保守派的不满。特朗普和马斯克的干预加剧了共和党内部的分歧,阻碍了党内团结和有效立法。 Mene Ukwebarua: 部分共和党人出于原则反对任何拨款立法,迫使众议院议长约翰逊与民主党人妥协,导致最终结果可能并不符合大多数共和党人的意愿。此外,国会未能有效处理灾难援助和农业补贴等问题,将这些问题与拨款法案捆绑在一起导致了混乱和不满。马斯克对国会运作机制的理解不足,其干预方式并不可取。共和党内部应团结一致,才能最大限度地发挥其影响力。 Kim Strassel: 拜登总统在政府停摆危机期间的缺位令人担忧,这不仅影响了国会内部的运作,也给美国在国际上的形象带来了负面影响。 Mene Ukwebarua: 马斯克认为他的干预是成功的,因为他促使最终法案删除了一些冗余条款,但他对国会运作机制的理解不足。马斯克和拉马斯瓦米应该专注于限制行政部门的规章制度,而不是试图影响国会的立法进程。 Kyle Peterson: 众议院议长约翰逊在1月3日面临再次投票选举,他的连任存在不确定性,特朗普的态度对约翰逊的连任至关重要。约翰逊在平衡保守原则和获得足够票数之间面临困境,而一些共和党议员的行为加剧了这种困境。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What were the key components of the bill passed to avoid a government shutdown?

The bill extended government funding into March, included $100 billion in disaster aid, $10 billion in assistance to farmers, and maintained current government funding levels. It did not include an increase in the debt ceiling, which President Trump had wanted.

Why did Donald Trump and Elon Musk oppose the initial spending bill?

Donald Trump and Elon Musk opposed the initial spending bill because it lacked a provision to suspend the debt ceiling for a longer period. They also criticized the bill for containing significant spending, including $100 billion in disaster aid and $10 billion for farmers.

What changes were made to the bill after Trump and Musk's intervention?

The bill was reduced from about 1,500 pages to 118 pages. Provisions removed included tackling junk fees, a congressional pay raise, changes affecting pharmacy benefit managers, federal reimbursement for food stamp fraud, and criminalizing deep fake images.

What challenges does Speaker Mike Johnson face in maintaining his position?

Speaker Mike Johnson faces challenges in maintaining his position due to a narrow Republican majority and opposition from some House Freedom Caucus members. He must navigate internal party divisions and potential threats to his speakership, especially with Donald Trump's influence looming.

What role did Elon Musk play in the government funding debate?

Elon Musk played a significant role by publicly opposing the initial spending bill and encouraging Donald Trump to intervene. His actions led to the removal of several provisions from the bill, though the core spending levels remained unchanged.

Why was President Biden criticized during the government funding debate?

President Biden was criticized for being largely absent during the government funding debate, with reports indicating he had not engaged with House Democratic lawmakers as Congress worked to avoid a shutdown. This lack of involvement was seen as unusual for a sitting president during such a critical moment.

What is the significance of the disaster aid and farm assistance in the bill?

The disaster aid and farm assistance in the bill, totaling $100 billion and $10 billion respectively, were significant because they addressed urgent needs for recovery and economic support. However, these provisions were contentious among some Republicans who opposed the high levels of spending.

What lessons can be learned from the government shutdown brinkmanship?

The government shutdown brinkmanship highlighted the challenges of negotiating in a divided government, the influence of external figures like Donald Trump and Elon Musk, and the difficulty of maintaining party unity. It also underscored the inefficiency of last-minute, large-scale funding bills and the need for more transparent legislative processes.

Shownotes Transcript

Congress passes a bill to fund the government, narrowly averting a shutdown over the holidays, but what did Donald Trump and Elon Musk accomplish by going nuclear on the initial legislation? Is this a bad omen for 2025, when Republicans will take control of Washington and begin negotiations on their priorities? And can Speaker Mike Johnson muster the votes to keep his gavel?

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