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Will Israel and Iran’s Cease-Fire Hold?
2025/6/24
WSJ What’s News
D
Dan Michaels
J
Jacob Passi
S
Shayndi Raice
Shayndi Raice: 作为《华尔街日报》的中东分社副社长，我认为虽然以色列和伊朗达成了停火协议，但停火后伊朗向以色列北部发射了导弹，这使得局势仍然非常不明朗。目前的关键在于，我们能否将冲突控制在快速的以牙还牙的范围内，否则停火协议可能会在开始之前就瓦解。我认为双方都非常希望达成停火协议，但问题在于如何保全面子。伊朗没有在美国袭击其核设施后与美国发生重大冲突，这表明伊朗也准备结束冲突。目前最大的问题不是短期内是否会继续发生袭击，而是长期影响，特别是以色列和美国对伊朗核能力的破坏程度。伊朗的未来走向，以及它是否会采取秘密行动并退出对其核计划进行监督的协议，将决定未来是否会与以色列再次发生冲突。如果以色列只让伊朗倒退几个月，并且很快看到伊朗试图重建，这可能会迫使以色列再次进行军事干预，导致局势重回原点。
Deep Dive
Despite a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, the situation remains tense. Recent missile attacks raise concerns about the deal's longevity. Experts analyze the factors influencing the success or failure of the ceasefire, including the potential for further escalation and the long-term implications for regional stability.
- Ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran.
- Subsequent Iranian missile attacks.
- Uncertainty about the deal's durability.
- Analysis of motivations and willingness of both sides to maintain the ceasefire.
- Concerns about long-term repercussions and potential for future conflict.
Shownotes Transcript