How Bleak is the Future? We Are Not Doomed! | Yaron Brook Show
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All right, everybody. Welcome to your own book show on this. What is it?

It's Sunday, May 4th. I hope everybody's having a fantastic weekend. I am getting sick. So just to let you know, I'm a little... Maybe I'll be a little slow today and who knows what's going to happen during the week. But it seems like every time I go travel somewhere, I come back with some virus, some kind of bug. And Michigan did not spare me. It seems like on the flight back, I got something. Anyway, it just hit me yesterday. Um...

God, you know, you think you develop immunity from these things. Like I've had, I thought, every virus that existed this season. And no, I got another one. So it's still at the beginning. So, you know, I get a scratchy sore throat and then it becomes a congestion. So I expect congestion to be what happens the rest of the week.

But I will do as many shows as I can and drink my hot tea while I'm speaking. All right. I thought today we'd take a break. Well, not really. But from all the horrible news and all the bad stuff happening and the idiocy that basically is visit a doctor. You don't visit a doctor for a cold. It's not what you do.

So I thought we'd take a break from the idiocy. All morning or afternoon, I've been watching the latest interview that Trump gave to, I don't know what network it was, but it's all over the place, where he basically says, he's asked about due process and the Constitution, following the Constitution, and his response to all of that is,

Yeah, I don't know. I don't know. I have good lawyers. They take care of this. I don't know. Am I supposed to follow the Constitution? I don't know. DuPont says Fifth Amendment. I don't know. And he says, you know, get used to only having $2 instead of $30. A good question to come back to President Trump would be, what about the kid who has $2 now because they can't afford $30 and now goes to $0? Is that acceptable? I mean, the whole thing. Anyway, yeah.

Yeah, there's a ton of depressing stuff going on. And I see a lot of people out there and on the chat here and in the super chat periodically kind of, in a sense, giving up or accepting that this is the end. And if you're young, I'm not going to have a job and I'm not going to have a life and I'm not going to have a house. I never afford a house. Never afford this, never afford that. And overall...

you know, America's finished and America's going to be poor and generally, you know, life is going to suck and that the future is overwhelming bleak. And so I want to talk about that. I mean, let's be clear, we're facing unbelievable problems and there's going to be a real economic price to pay for what is going on right now.

If your horizon is a little bit more than two, three, four years, if it's closer to five to 10, then I just want to encourage everybody to calm down. And even in the short run, we're not looking at Armageddon. So that is the case I want to make today. And that's the case I will articulate. I encourage you to ask questions. There's a lot to ask about. There's a lot going on in the world.

There's a lot going on in people's lives. So ask me about anything, anything that is interesting to you, anything you'd like an answer for. And I'd be happy to try to answer your questions. That is the super chat. That's a way for you to value for value. You can also do stickers, which is another way. Sticker is a super chat without a question. It's another way to support the show, support you on book show. So.

There is a lot going wrong right now, and I'm not going to list it because you all know it. And if you listen to you on book show, you know that. But let me let me say a few things about the U.S. economy. This economy is incredibly robust. It has a huge amount of flexibility within it. And in spite of the fact that people generally don't seem to be very smart, particularly when it comes to abstract political concepts or philosophical concepts, it's

The American businessman is incredibly productive, incredibly innovative, and incredibly flexible and forward-looking.

It is, you know, everything that's happening right now, as I've talked about in the past, is a direct attack on businessmen. You know, we are destroying their supply chains, disrupting their businesses. We're forcing them to work much longer hours, I guess, all in the name of bringing back a 50s economy, much longer hours in order not to be more productive, in order not to

increase economic output in order not to enhance the economy or their economy or their companies, but just to survive. And that is going to happen. And if you run a small to medium size or you are a senior executive in a large company, you are scrambling right now and you're working much longer hours than we would like and all for goal of just surviving.

getting around the regulations and controls that the government is imposing on you because that's what these tariffs are, the regulations and controls, the taxes. But they have the impact of regulations and controls. So that is all happening, and that is true. But I have a huge amount of respect for those businessmen, and I actually think that they will find solutions. Now, the solutions will be costly. The solutions will involve, you know, dramatic costs.

shifts and some pain and stagnation because these are, again, changes that are not targeted and oriented towards growth. These are changes that are targeted and oriented towards just keeping things the way they are. So this is very much going to be, you know, going to be, we're looking at stagnation, but I don't think we're looking at collapse. And there are some things that

To give credit where credit is due, there are some things that the Trump administration, I don't think Trump, but the Trump administration is doing that will mitigate some of this. We'll talk about that. So first realize that while some industries, some businesses, small and medium size particularly, are going to go bust in the next few months because they can't source the materials they need from any way other than China, many businesses will somehow survive.

They will survive by shifting their supply chains, by finding new sources, by paying more, but they will survive. Some products that we're used to buying easily and cheaply will disappear. But most of what we need, most of what we're used to will continue to be available if at higher prices. And what we're going to experience is a restructuring of the American economy to some extent, particularly in certain industries.

In a direction of less efficiency, less productivity, less efficiency, less productivity. Now, most of the economic growth that we get today, most of the real productivity gains, most of the progress that we see comes from, you know, broadly speaking, the tech sector. That sector has gotten a pass from Trump on everything.

many of the tariffs. So a lot of the electronics the tech sector needs in order to continue to build its products have been free of tariffs or tariffs at a much lower rate. And therefore, many of those jobs will be saved. And the rest of the economy will have to adjust, will have to

Again, reconfigure the supply chains. We're going to see massive increases in importation for Vietnam, from South America, from other countries. Prices will go up. The 10% tariff, at least for now, cannot be avoided. But supply chains will readjust to the fact that we will not be buying stuff from China. In addition, you will see, you know, a

Stuff coming in kind of illegally, you will see smuggling go up, particularly for those products that are essential. But again, those involve prices going up. Now, smuggling will probably be relatively small, although I do see a profit opportunity here for the cartels. You know, why not smuggling some spare parts here?

into your shipment of fentanyl across the U.S. border. You've got the smuggling routes already figured out for the drugs and for so-called illegal immigrants, and why not add some Chinese products on top of that? But, you know, that's not going to be a major factor. But here's what I do expect will happen. I do expect Trump to change his mind. I do expect as we enter or the threat of recession gets more significant,

If the stock market has another tumble, remember it had that big tumble after Liberation Day. It's recovered most of that. Most of that has been recovered. Most of that has come back because the market expects Trump to change. The market expects Trump to cut some kind of deal that lowers tariffs on China. They expect him to cut some kind of deal with other countries so at worst the 10% stays.

And the market doesn't believe the Latinx of the world and the Navarros of the world that there's a lot more still to come. The market seems to think that this is about it. And from now on, it's only going to get better because Trump has learned his lesson. They have taught it. Maybe they're right. Maybe he is going to learn his lesson. I think he's going to get a lot of backlash from this fewer dolls. Today, he said,

Kids will have like instead of 250 pencils, five pencils or something. So it's not just dollars. It's just a pencils. And maybe those little cars for boys. No, I shouldn't be sexist here. But so I think Trump is going to reduce tariffs. I think he's going to pretend to cut deals. I wouldn't be surprised if in the next month we have frameworks for future deals that are kind of empty of content, but at least give the market confidence that tariffs are not going up by more than 10%.

And America will adjust. It is not about to fall off a cliff. Trump could push it off a cliff, but I don't think he wants to. I don't think of something he's a nihilist. I mean, there's elements of nihilism in it. He he likes to see everybody groveling before him. He likes to see everybody frantic, but he doesn't like to see everybody angry with him. He doesn't like that, particularly not CEOs of big companies. So I think he will adjust.

And he'll still do damage. An economy will grow a lot less than it could have. And a lot of wealth will be destroyed. But we won't fall off a cliff. Now, if you add to that the fact, and this is where the Trump administration is indeed doing good things. I mean, the story I read today or yesterday, that the EPA, the Environmental Protection Agency, is basically shuttering whole departments. It's asking Congress for a lot less money.

It's backing off dramatically from regulating U.S. business and U.S. production and U.S. building. Now, this is huge. Now, while a lot of businessmen's energy and focus and effort is going to have to go to getting around the tariffs or finding substitutes to China,

There's a chance they will be liberated from trying to get around the environmentalist tariffs, which is very hard to do because they've been around for a long time and they've been solidified. And in addition to that, there are going to be other deregulations. Other departments will deregulate. There will be other parts of the economy that become a little bit at the margin freer, which I think we will all benefit from.

I'll also say just from an economic perspective, the Saudis are coming to our protection defense. Not so much if you're in the energy industry, Saudis are not helping you. But the rest of us, Saudi Arabia, today, I think another OPEC meeting where they're announcing another increase in supply. So the Saudis are pumping oil out. They're happy to see it below 60 bucks a barrel, partially because Saudi

The cost of production is very, very low. So they make money no matter what. They are basically preventing the U.S. from engaging in a massive increase in production in the U.S. because at under $60 a barrel, it's just not economic for the United States to engage in a massive drill baby drill. And they're keeping oil prices low so that all of you can drive this summer and

And that oil, which is a fact in production for a lot of things, will be cheap and companies can sustain reasonable profit margins in spite of everything going on because oil prices, that is a vital input, will be lower. So, again, there's some offsetting factors in the world out there that make Trump's, you know, irrational decisions

economic decisions less impactful and less destructive than they otherwise would be. Than they otherwise would be. I wouldn't drive to Canada if I were you. Yeah, don't drive to Canada. First of all, the Canadians don't want you and they won't be nice to you. Canadians are typically nice. They're not going to be nice to you if you come from the US. And second, you know, it's spending time in animal territory. I'm not sure they'd allow you back in. You might be accused of treason or something. I'm kidding. So...

So we've, you know, so there is, there is, it's not all bad news out there. I'll add to that, that they're now at least five or maybe six. And next week, we're going to be interviewing Larry Salzman, who is a party to one of these lawsuits, at least five or six lawsuits with regard to the tariffs. So there are a lot of organizations, a lot of entities that believe that they have a good case to put in front of the Supreme Court to

to basically void the basis on which Trump declared these tariffs. And that would basically void the tariffs. And he would have to either go to Congress or be much more selective in his tariffs in order to make the case that there's a national security issue. He can't just use this law that he's using that doesn't mention tariffs to, you know, have these global tariffs passed.

on on every country in the world. So there's a chance that this part of Trump's agenda, indeed, there's a chance that much of Trump's agenda is going to be blocked in the courts. And this is where, you know, I'm still positive about the Supreme Court. I still think they care about the Constitution. I don't think they're in Trump's pocket. And I think that they will want to rein in at least to some extent, not completely, but rein in at least to some extent,

You know, some of Trump's abuses. And now this, I think, is true culturally as well. So this is true of other topics. We've already seen a court, a federal court, Trump appointee declare the use of the Aliens Enemies Act as unconstitutional and and and banned it from use.

This is going to go to Supreme Court. There's a chance that the use of this act, so the incarceration of illegal immigrants in jails in El Salvador will be ruled unconstitutional and that will stop. So I think the courts are going to step in here and at least slow down, if not completely stop this administration from pursuing the path that they're on. You also have to think about these things a little longer term.

What Trump is doing is going to have negative consequences. It's going to have negative consequences, among others, in the communities that he's supposedly trying to help. Right now, people are losing their jobs in manufacturing, in the manufacturing sector, because companies can't build stuff because they can't get the parts, or companies are so uncertain about the future that they're shrinking in order to wait and see what happens. And it is quite possible that

You know, his economic agenda becomes incredibly unpopular in America. It already is. He already has the lowest favorability ratings in the polls of any president, including himself in his first term to any modern president. So right now, Trump is less popular than Biden was. He's less popular than he was because of all this nonsense. American people don't buy it. And

As it starts sinking in that the president of the United States is telling you, you can't have as many dolls or as many cars or as many, you know, anything that you want, that you would like. The government is basically, that's all going to shrink. I think Americans are going to rebel against that. They don't like to be told how many dolls they can buy. Economic nationalism, there's a limit. Central planning, there's a limit. I've always said America would not become socialist again.

And there's way too much of what the Trump administration is trying to do or the way they're expressing themselves, which smacks of socialism. So there's going to be a real backlash and there's a real chance that in 2026 and in 2026, we're likely to be really suffering from all these crazy economic policies. Then in 2026, the Americans vote overwhelmingly for Democrats. And not that I'm a fan of the Democratic Party, but I am a fan of Democrats.

divided government. I'm a fan of, you know, stalemate, of not getting anything done in Washington, D.C. And I'm certainly a fan of sending a message to Republicans that the people are none of their side. So gridlock, I've always been a fan of gridlock. Gridlock is good. The best combination of gridlock is a Democratic president, Republican House and Senate,

I told you that before this election, the House and Senate were pretty sure to stay Republican. We just got the presidency wrong. So there's a good chance that J.D. Vance will not be president in four years. There's a good chance the Republicans lose the presidency in four years. Or if there is a Republican president, that there's somebody more sane, less nationalist, less MAGA, because MAGA will be discredited. Now, maybe...

because MAGA dominates Republican politics, maybe they'll still be the nominee, but then they'll lose. Then they'll lose. And some of the better things that are happening right now, for example, the shrinking of the EPA, it will be very difficult for Democrats to ramp that back up. I think about it, you know, a lot of these people, generally, the people fired from government, that's all good that they're firing people from government. Because at the end of the day, it doesn't solve our budgetary problem. But in the long run,

it's going to be hard to hire them back. People will leave government and they'll find real jobs in the real sector, in the private sector, and they won't want to go back to a government job. So there really is a chance. There really is a chance that the shrinkage that is happening haphazardly today will actually be rationalized and actually in the long run represent a shrinkage in the number of

employees in the government. And yes, some of that is bad in the sense that some of the stuff that the government is going to do anyway, it's going to do less effectively. Maybe, you know, others, other places, they'll just have less people to harass us and to take our stuff and to regulate us and control us. And yes, it does look like the EPA is indeed shrinking. Now we'll see what happens in the budget when the budget process ends. But it does seem like the EPA is going to Congress and kind of asking,

for shrinkage and in the meantime, firing people so that Congress faces, in a sense, some kind of fait accompli. From an economic and political perspective, I don't think all is lost. We are doomed. We're going into a spiral and we're going to lose all our savings and we're going to face a... We're not going into Great Depression. Part of the reason we're not going into Great Depression is that the Great Depression was to a large extent caused by Federal Reserve that didn't know what it was doing.

A Federal Reserve that was young, that had no experience, didn't know what was happening. Now, I think generally the Federal Reserve doesn't know what it's doing. There's a scope, right? The Federal Reserve is unlikely to make the kind of mistake that leads to a Great Depression. It's more likely to cause inflation. It's more likely to cause stagflation, but it's unlikely to cause a Great Depression. And a Great Depression of the 30s was very much a monetary phenomenon, very much a phenomenon

of just unbelievable restricting of credit and money and distorting of prices and a collapse of the banking system. We're just more sophisticated today and more equipped and more flexible to deal with a situation like the Great Depression. Not in a healthy way, right? Well, we're giving up

is we're giving up economic growth. What we got is, I mean, we have an economy geared towards stagnation, geared towards low growth. That's what kind of, those are the kind of institutions we've established in America, really in the global economy. Capitalism is geared towards high growth. And by the way, it's very flexible and can deal with crises in a private context. What we had in the 1920s and 30s

is an economy that still thought it was free, capitalist, but it had given a massive amount of power to a new entity with no knowledge, no experience, a Federal Reserve. And it made, you know, massive mistakes, both in the 20s and the 30s, that were incredibly destructive. And the economy did not have the means to deal with them. I don't think that happens again.

So we're not heading towards a Great Depression. We're more likely heading towards ongoing stagnation. And the risk is that we are heading towards more authoritarianism down the road. Trump will not be it. He is not smart enough. He is not ideological enough. Trump has no ideology. He hates trade. That's about it. That's the only thing. And he hates immigrants. I don't even know he hates immigrants because half the time I think he just he's appeasing pressure groups.

The anti-immigration pressure group is very, very strong in the Republican Party, in America generally. He's appeasing them. The only thing he really, I think he really believes in is he hates, what do you call it? He hates imports. He hates trade deficits. That's the only thing he really has been consistent about hating.

Does he care about regulation? No. That's why deregulation is happening, not because of Trump. Trump's not pushing it. Trump's not encouraging it. He doesn't talk about it in interviews. He doesn't give speeches about it. It's happening because he appointed some good people, some good people. Most of the people are not good, but a few good people in departments where it matters, like the EPA, like the Energy Department, like Interior, maybe a few others.

You know, that's where the deregulation is happening, not because of Trump, but because of the people he appointed. Like in the first term, the best stuff happened in the places where Trump wasn't paying attention. He let his people do their thing. Now, that's where the best stuff happened. It's just the fewer good people. And there's a lot, oh God, a lot of really, really bad people. So I think an economic fund, you know, the auto industry, they're going to figure this out.

They have the resources. They've got the brainpower. They're going to find ways to figure out how not to collapse. And if not, if they can't completely figure it out, they will go lobby Trump and he will give them some favor. He will give them a loophole. The you know, I think the real danger here is for the medium and small businesses to

who will try to figure it out, will scramble, will try to innovate. But for many of them, they just won't find it. I do not, let's just be clear, just in case there's any misunderstanding, I do not support the Federal Reserve. I think it should be abolished and it should be replaced by private banking, not by the Treasury, but by real private banking. What I said was, in...

The Federal Reserve in the 1920s and 30s was much worse than the Federal Reserve is today. It just has more experience. It's still bad. It still should be shut down. It should still be eliminated. Everybody there should be fired. So just so there's no, because somebody here is spreading lies, as people will do, they'll probably cut out a clip of me sounding like I'm pro-Federal Reserve and send it to, you know, all around.

God, how anybody could think I was pro-Federal Reserve is borderlines on dishonesty to even argue that. No, Federal Reserve should be dismantled. It's just less dangerous, less destructive than it was in the 1930s because they've learned something. They've learned from their mistakes. And they learned from their mistakes in the 70s. So the likelihood we have really high inflation, you know,

to the extent that the Fed has say, impacts it, is less likely. All right, so I want to calm everybody down, I guess, from the perspective of the economy. It's going to be, it could get bad. There's probably going to be a recession. I don't know what the odds are. They're probably a little greater than 50%. It's probably going to be a recession, but it's not going to be depression. And it's not going to be, you know, we're not falling off a cliff.

falling off a cliff. But there's some, there's a point beyond this that I want to remind you all, I do this periodically, and it's good to do it periodically. And that is that your life is not the economy. Your life is not American foreign policy. I mean, let's just say something about American foreign policy quickly. I mean, even there, Trump is awful and terrible, and he's flirted with being pro-Putin and anti-Zelensky. And yet, Putin is so thuggish and so

bad that he is now pissed off Trump. And it seems like foreign policy vis-a-vis Ukraine is going to be much better. Israel seems like at least not with, you know, maybe, I don't know, every day I read about new explosions in Iran, like the ports went out and our power plants are being exploded and different factories are going up in smoke. I don't know if that's Israel. I

But there's a significant positive probability it is. Israel's not just sitting on its hands while the Trump administration negotiates a deal with Iran. It is doing stuff. I have no inside information about what it's doing and how effective it is, but it's doing stuff. The United States is incompetent. So the Houthis just, you know, myself and the Houthis just landed in Israel right next to the airport. So planes, you know, the airport was shut down for a little bit and a lot of foreign aircraft

Foreign airlines are stopping flying into Israel. You know, Israel is going to get into that fight and it'll cause the Houthis more damage in a day that the United States has probably in three weeks. You know, the other day, Israel did an extensive series of bombings in Syria, basically to tell the Syrian regime to lay off the Druze population.

So Israel's taking things in its own hands. It's just calling up reserves. It's reservists now in order to expand its incursion into Gaza. I mean, it's a whole long story we'll get into one of these days. But so far on those funds, United States farm policy is not done. It's undamaged. But again, like the economy, it's not damage that causes us to fall off a cliff, mainly because, as Luke says, evil is so incompetent that...

Even our incompetence doesn't cause things to get as bad as they – I mean the biggest worry is at the end of the day that Trump's incompetence leads to war with China. That is the biggest threat I think we face right now. That's the one thing we need to really watch, and I'm really worried about that. I wasn't worried about that in the past. I didn't think China was going to do anything. But I do worry that Trump's attitude and incompetence –

will lead to that. We will see. But I still think the Chinese are afraid because I don't think they think they can win if they invade Taiwan. So even if our policy, while things are bad, we'll survive. We will survive. The Ukrainians will survive. I mean, it could shift. I mean, Trump tomorrow could again become Putin's best friend. So anything could change. But

You know, I think so far the West is surviving and certain things that Trump has done that are really, really bad are going to have positive outcomes. I think the best thing to come out of his foreign policy is a resurgent Europe focused on its own self-defense, focused on the need to grow economically, which might lead to some deregulations and to some economic growth problems.

We'll see. Maybe I'm being overly optimistic about Europe. But certainly a greater investment in defense is going to be a positive thing. And an independent Europe that can stand up to the Russians free of shackles placed on them by various American administrations is a good thing, not a bad thing. So there's another positive that might come from all of this. Trying to think anything else we want to cover today.

Yeah, I mean, this is where I'm going to pivot away from Trump to remind you that only a portion of your life is dictated by the politics in Washington, D.C. Yes, a recession could really hurt you. And you should be thinking about it. And you should be planning for it. And you should be thinking about what to do if you lose your job, what to do if, I don't know, you don't get the bonus this year, what to do if prices go up.

You should be thinking about your budget, how much you spend, maybe thinking about curtailing it a little bit. I mean, again, depending on your circumstances, maybe not if you're in tech and a good job and the industry seems to be going, if you're in AI and so on. So plan. Your life is at the end of the day, you know, you have the tools, right?

We live in an amazing world. We live in a relatively wealthy world. We're all relatively wealthy in spite of all the negativity that is out there. We're pretty rich. Now, not all of us. And therefore, you have to plan and you have to think about your particular circumstances and think it through. I also think we're about to experience a real revolution. I mean, it strikes me as amazing. All these idiots...

I think I still call them idiots, idiots who are calling to reindustrialize the United States. And you see what AI is capable of. And you see what these robots have just been watching videos of robots. And I mean, these robots are amazing. They can they can do martial arts. They have real dexterity. They have real capabilities now.

humanoid capabilities. Now, I don't know if that's particularly useful for production, but if they can now get robots to do the kind of sophisticated movements that human beings can do, and they're really cool, then forget about industrial jobs. Those are all going to be taken by robots. And that is going to boost productivity dramatically and can involve a real dramatic shift in the kind of jobs that make sense. And again, that's true of, that's also true of AI.

So AI and robots are going to change the world, maybe within the next two to three to five years, maybe it's 10 years, but they're going to change the world. And unless Trump bans them, which I guess is possible, but very unlikely, he has no control over that. He has no control over that. So, you know, the focus should be, given that that's going to happen, how do you take advantage of it? How do you position yourself to benefit?

From a world that's going to be changing in the next 10 to 20 years, the world will change in big, dramatic ways. Obsessing about doom and gloom will not help you make that adjustment, will not help you reorient towards where the opportunities are. And again, a lot of people's jobs are going to be destroyed. A lot of people's lives are going to be destroyed. There's a lot of bad that's going to happen.

That doesn't have to be you. The more prepared you are, the more thoughtful you are, the more you plan and think and consider, the better off you're going to be. And the more you're going to be able to thrive, no matter what, you know, Trump throws at you. Again, Trump is not, he's not a socialist. He's not a fascist in the sense that he doesn't have a driving ideology. And those who do, I don't think the Americans will embrace it. Not as a whole. I think they're going to lose. And yes,

We constantly inch towards authoritarianism. Yes, at some point, we won't be able to stop it. We're not there yet. This administration is not going to be it. Now, I hope this is one prediction I'm right about. It could be the one I'm wrong about is no. You know, Vance overthrows Trump and becomes dictator of America. I don't think that's happening. Even in America today, I don't think we'd allow that to happen. I'm encouraged by how many people are critical of Trump.

How many people have woken up, people who voted for Trump and are now super critical and have come to realize much more the extent to which MAGA as a movement is thoroughly corrupt. I think Richard Hanania is a good example of this. He was critical of Trump before, but he said, like many people, look, at least Trump will sustain the market economy. He's really bad and MAGA is really bad. He's better than Kamala. And now...

He's like, I was wrong. I was wrong. I should have never voted for him. He's really, really, really destructive and really, really bad. I mean, the more people wake up to that, the less chance you have that the Republicans can sustain power enough to become authoritarian. So that is my positive outlook. But again, I'll end with this reminder. So much of your life is under your control. So much of your life...

does not depend on anything Trump or anybody else does. Your life is also in your control in a sense of how much attention, how much energy, how much focus you put on what's going on politically. Do you really need to? Does it really enhance your life to be on Twitter nonstop or to be watching the news or to be on Fox or to listen to Ben Shapiro every day for hours? Not that I'm against listening to Ben Shapiro. He's one of the, you know, moderately better ones.

But generally, how important is politics to your life, to the day-to-day stuff, to how well you're doing at work, to how productive you are, to how much thinking you put into it, to how ambitious you choose to be? How relevant is what is happening in Washington to the way you spend your time? Are you putting the kind of energy and effort into production, into being productive? Are you putting enough energy and effort into making your life the best that it can be?

Are you devoting real thinking into how to improve your life given the political situation? Finding a romantic partner if you don't have one. I know a lot of you, a lot of the people who listen to my show are men. According to YouTube, it's above 90%. I don't know if that's true, but according to YouTube, it's well over 90%, right? Men, how much energy focus are you putting into finding a romantic partner, into dating? How much energy are any of you putting into...

What I've talked about often, right? Making the world, the part of the world that you control, your home, your office, your environment beautiful. One that makes you put a smile on you when you walk into your home. How many of you are focused on improving your skills? You know, learning how AI works. Now this is one I'm guilty of, right? I should be spending huge amounts of time right now. I feel I'm figuring AI out.

And I'm catching up on all the reviews, including Ali's book review, on the reviews that I owe you guys. So I need to catch up, and I will. But particularly AI. I need to improve my skills in AI. I'm going to be, you know, overtaken if I don't. And I think this summer, that is my number one project once I get clear of all the other stuff that I'm committed to doing. That is what I'm going to focus on. Luke says, did you on figure out that you're on AI bot? Yeah.

supposedly it's still happening, right? I signed a contract with this company that's working on it. We did the video session where they filmed some video of me so they can use the video and move my lips to say the things that they are. So I don't know where it is.

Um, yet, uh, you know, I, I, I, hopefully this company survives. Hopefully they put it out at some point. Hopefully it works. I haven't really been following it, but it's part of me not paying enough attention to AI. I should be paying a lot more attention to it. You know, are you, you know, there are all these memes out there right now about, oh, weren't the fifties great where parents spent a lot of time with their children and, and their families were families and all you can, you can recreate that.

How much time are you spending with your children? And by the way, I think parents spend maybe too much time with their children these days. You don't want to be a helicopter parent that is involved in every aspect of your child's life. One of the most important things to do in raising children is to let them be. Encourage independence. But if you want to have that 50s lifestyle, you can do it.

So how much time are you spending with the people you love, with your friends, with your children, with your family, with people you care for and care about? How much energy, focus, thinking time are you spending on making your life the best life that it can be, in other words, rather than worrying and obsessing about the latest thing in the news, about the latest phenomena? I told you, listen to your own book show for highlights of the news, get depressed for an hour and a half,

Two hours, three hours, but feed off of my energy and drop it as soon as the show is over. Focus your life on you, on your life. We live here for a finite period of time. We have control over a finite part of our lives. No control over what happens in Washington for the most part. So stop obsessing about that. Obsess about your life. Obsess about how to be happy. Obsess about the things that are in your control, your job, your family, your environment, everything.

Place in which you live. That's where you should be devoting your energies to. So it's easy to be depressed right now. I'm tempted. But I'm too busy. There's too much to do. There are too many things to think about, to learn about. There's too much work to be done. There's too many improvements I still want to make in my own life. To spend obsessed by...

The nonsense, a moron like Donald Trump is engaged in. I guess today's not a new show, so I can call him a moron. Anyway, so I return to my theme of Iran's rules for life. And those of you not familiar with Iran's rules for life, check them out. There is a whole playlist online of my rules for life. I think there are about 20 shows that are dedicated to that. And that is...

Live your life. And uncertainty, yes, there's a lot of uncertainty out there. Okay. Deal with it. Uncertainty should not cause you to crumble. Uncertainty is part of living. And again, figure out what you can control. Figure out what you can do. Even if you're in business right now and you don't know what it's going to be like. Well, what can I control? How can I diversify my supply chains from China? How can I find new suppliers? How can I shift my production so I get affected less by the craziness in Washington, D.C.?

It's hard work. It's not easy. And in some cases, figure out how do I shut this down? Maybe permanently, maybe for a while. But how do I continue to survive in spite of that? Raw Ghost in the Quarry, in the Fountainhead, he faces a lot of uncertainty. He has no idea if he's ever going to be an architect again. I mean, I think he's pretty confident he is going to be. He is going to design buildings. But he has no idea when it's going to come from, where it's going to come from, how it's going to come from.

And he manages to thrive in spite of that. And that's your challenge. Your challenge is to thrive in spite of what the irrational morons in Washington, D.C. do. See, I said moron twice, and the number of people watching live goes down. All right. I don't think that's correlated. I think I got into the stuff about making your life, making your environment beautiful and living your life for yourself earlier.

focusing on that and it's too positive for people way too positive for people rock knew he would win you should too you should too um and and again you will win doesn't mean america wins doesn't mean the economy wins doesn't mean the you know i don't know whatever wins it means you win and most of what your life is is under your control again we're not we're not throwing people in jail for being objectivist we're not throwing people in jail for having the wrong ideas yet

You can still express yourself. You can still, you know, do what you want. You can still change professions. I mean, if you heard Ludwig today, he was saying, well, we need American manufacturing jobs where the father and the son and the grandson all work in the same job for life and for the same company for life. He wants to bring feudalism and the guild system back. We don't have it back yet.

We're not living under that yet. Ludwig can fantasize. Of course, he doesn't want that for his children. He doesn't want that for himself. He has never been in a manufacturing facility in his life, probably. But let these idiots blather on and make the most of what you have. And yes, there's uncertainty. You take that into account and you keep living.

And you keep, you know, that's what we have a rational faculty for. The rational faculty is there to make it possible to deal with uncertainty. Now, again, I'm not saying it's not hard. I'm not saying it's not challenging. I'm not saying there won't be negatives that happen. I'm not saying you won't have setbacks. You will. And you will have a lot of setbacks that are unjust. Unjust. The bastards somewhere else are going to inflict on you. Don't let that get you down because life is too short for

to be down. Get yourself back on your knees. The injustice has happened. It sucks. It's horrible. And yet you need to still live and you need to be able to achieve whatever happiness you can. Focus everything on the positive. Focus everything on that. Hopefully that helps out a little bit in terms of reorient some of you away from the overly pessimistic, overly narrowly political focus and

hopefully a little bit of inspiration for the weekend. A good Sunday sermon is always good. Life's too short, guys. Way too short. Way, way, way, way too short. All right, let's see. What do we have? I want to remind you a few things. You can ask questions. Anything you want. Anything you want.

We've covered the first hour. That's phenomenal. Thank you, guys. That's great. We're going to be into the second hour here soon. We're well into the second hour in terms of contributions, so in terms of Super Chat. But let's get to the number soon. I will go for as long as you ask questions. So keep them coming, particularly if you have $20 or $50 or big dollar questions that is particularly valuable right now.

So particularly if you have those, bring them on. I want to thank all the people who did stickers. Really, really appreciate that. It's a way to support the show without asking a question. I know not everybody has a question. So feel free to do stickers. Vadim, Catherine, let's see, Catherine Dawson, different Catherine, Jonathan Honing, thank you guys for the stickers.

and keep it coming. Maribenz, who's fantastic, I think she'll be an amazing employee, is looking for a job. She is way too qualified for the jobs you guys might offer her, but she's smart and hardworking, so I would offer a job in a heartbeat if I had one available. So if you do have anything available,

Talk to Mary Benz. She is looking for something. She has abandoned her quest for a job in the sciences, sadly, tragically, horrifically. I will answer your email, Mary Benz. I apologize. I haven't yet. I'm behind on everything. So just

All right. Let's see. What do we want to do? I want to remind you of Alex Epstein is a sponsor of the show. AlexEpstein.substantial.com. Best commentary you will find on all things related to energy, including what's going on in Trump administration regarding energy. Best stuff you will find on climate change and on fossil fuels and drilling, but importantly on electricity.

I'm waiting for Alex to come out with like the definitive explanation for what happened in Spain and Portugal. Uh, I think I have a, uh, now an idea of what happened. I might talk about it tomorrow on the show. Oh, I also want to remind you, I will be on, I think I haven't got the, uh, the zoom link yet, but I'll probably get it in the morning. Hopefully I'll fill up to it, but I will be on destiny show tomorrow. If I'm not, it's because I'm, I'm too sick, but I will be sure up on destiny show tomorrow from, um,

I think 10.30 a.m. So if you have access to it, join us and ask questions. And the Iron Range Institute is a sponsor and they are...

They still have available scholarships for Ocon. I think only a couple of days left, maybe tomorrow at midnight is the deadline. So if you want to apply for a scholarship for attending Ocon, Ocon July 1st through 5th in Boston, phenomenal conference, fun. It's going to be interesting and fun. There are going to be a lot of talks, a lot of socializing, poker, and –

Yeah, so join us at Ocon. And if you can't afford it, apply for a scholarship. They're available at einran.org. Destiny the streamer. Yes, the streamer. So hopefully you have access to his stream. All right, let's jump in. Rational IP was 60 euro. Thank you, Rational IP. Some argue that consumer protection laws are essential to balance the power asymmetry between consumers and business.

especially in the context of standard form contracts. What is your view on this? Well, I'm obviously against it. I'm against any kind of government regulations of business that is not related to a real objective, objectively identifiable risk. This idea that there's a power asymmetry is completely nonsense. You could argue that the consumer has more power than the producer. They can stop buying the goods.

The consumer can choose a competitor. The consumer can just stay at home. So this idea that producers have more power than consumers is nonsense. It's not an issue of power. The producer is offering a product and the consumer can choose to buy it or not. Now, there is a, you could argue there's an asymmetrical information because the producer has a lot more information about the quality of the product, its usability, the risks involved than the consumer.

Now, there are a number of ways in which this can be solved. The consumer can demand that the producer reveal that information, disclose that information before they buy. And otherwise, they won't buy. So consumer can say, you know, I'm not buying this box of cereal until you list how many grams of sugar are in it. I'm just going to buy something else. I'm just not going to buy cereal anymore.

You know, that's one way to get the producer to provide the information the consumer wants that is not being made available and the consumer cannot find easily by themselves. That's one solution. The consumer not consume until they get what they want. And the consumers can band together to do that. They can do all kinds of campaigns to do that. There are lots of means by which they can do it. The other is that third parties enter the field.

Third parties whose whole profit business model is to provide information. Think consumer reports on steroids. You're worried about the toy not being safe. Well, don't buy the toy unless it has a consumer report seal of approval on it. Just don't buy things that don't have that seal of approval. Or you go to a website and find out exactly how much sugar that cereal has, even if they don't list it.

So no, there is no there was no need for consumer protection laws. Indeed, what I think consumer protection laws do is they turn consumers into they turn consumers lazy. That is, they disincentivize consumers from actually engaging the kind of activity that is in their own self-interest because they assume consumers assume that the consumer protection laws protect them.

And therefore, they don't engage in the kind of activity that would protect themselves. And what the consumer protection laws also do is they create a disincentive for third parties, rating entities, review entities, from engaging in the process, in actual review. So I'll give you an example. Imagine if food inspectors stopped inspecting restaurants. But we want...

A restaurant to be hygienic and clean. Imagine if Yelp, as a business, chose to do it themselves. And they would go to restaurants and say, look, we'll inspect and we'll give you a rating. And if you don't want us to, that's fine. We'll just let our reviewers know, the people who use our service, that you didn't let us inspect. Imagine it's part of Yelp. The services Yelp provide, they also provided a rating.

on how clean the kitchen was and how sanitary or whatever the behavior was. I think restaurants pay a lot more attention, would pay a lot more attention to Yelp ratings than they would to food inspectors from the FDA. Imagine if, I mean, if just, you know, Yelp people who do Yelp reviews went into the kitchen and said, hey, I'm writing a review. I'd like to also look at the kitchen.

I mean, there's so many ways in which proactively existing businesses and existing consumers can fill in whatever gaps exist to make it clear that we just don't need consumer protection laws and never have needed them, never have needed them. So, no, I definitely don't think that. I think, if anything, consumer protection laws make it worse because they disincentivize both consumers to pay attention and

and alternatives like private alternatives, which would be better than government alternatives to arise. Thank you, Rational IP. Mike, thank you for the sticker. Really appreciate that. Okay, Molten Splenda has a $50 question. Thank you, Molten. I don't understand why Stossel, Alvarez, Javier Millet are considered bad by objective standards because they refer to themselves as libertarians. I don't hear them advocating anarchism, which is the biggest pushback on libertarianism, right?

I don't think anybody considers Starcell, Alvarez, and Millet bad. I think we consider the fact that they call themselves libertarians, and I don't think Alvarez does, because I think Alvarez understands this, that by calling themselves libertarians, they are in a sense, not in a sense, they are, they're sanctioning and enabling the worst elements within the so-called libertarian movement.

They are sanctioning and enabling the anarchists, even though they are not anarchists. So by not qualifying the use of the word libertarian and embracing the libertarian big tent, which doesn't just include the libertarians, but which is populated by many, many libertarians and many of them in leadership, intellectual, particularly intellectual leadership positions, they are linking liberty,

freedom, free markets, capitalism with anarchy. So they need to be able to differentiate themselves from the anarchists, either by using a different term or by making it very, very clear that they are not anarchists. Now, Javier Millet is an anarchist. He claims he is. He advocates for it. That's the one, I mean, probably two or three things I really dislike about Millet. That's one of them.

So Stossel is not an anarchist and Gloria Alvarez is not an anarchist. But I think Gloria is also very good at not self-identifying as a libertarian because she realizes that when she does, she is sanctioning and embracing, consciously or not, embracing the anarchists. So she distances herself from it. And I think that's what they should all do. Stop using the word libertarian. Call yourself a free marketer. Call yourself a classical liberal. Now, that doesn't mean...

you know, you shun people. It means you don't self-identify as the same as them. So, you know, I've had at least one person on the show who's an anarchist. We didn't discuss that. But I don't consider myself in the same team as him, even though on the issues we discussed, we agree we're not on the same team because of his anarchy. And indeed, I have debated him on anarchy. So my view is very, very clear. So,

Thanks, Molten Splendor. Hopefully that gives you a sense of why. Why, why, why? Right. Andrew, OnCost states that Ezra Klein's new book evades the difference between voluntary action and government force. Do people generally feel shame over initiating force? Does that factor into their willingness to evade force? I think at some level people understand that force is bad.

They choose to present their views as not being forced. Now, again, I don't think Ezra Klein, and I don't think, let me rephrase that. I think a lot of people, while they know that force is bad, they also think it is essential for achieving what you'd call the common good. So they think that it's, yeah, it's not good to force people to do what they don't want, but sometimes it's necessary because alternative is worse.

So we have to force them. If we didn't force them, they'd be poor. If we didn't force them, they'd commit suicide. If we didn't force them, they'd do horrible things. So we have to engage in force in order to make their lives better or in order to make them, you know, to make them moral, ethical. They won't do it by themselves from their own initiative. So we have to force them. And I think there's a lot of that, sadly.

There's, you know, and I think a lot of that is kind of embedded in an altruistic morality. Altruistic morality is not a morality that negates force. It's a morality that says if force is used to achieve a good end, i.e. the well-being of other people, then it's okay. It's our Christians justified slaughtering people in the name of Christianity or forced conversion, right?

And it's how altruists, how communists explained why it was okay to kill tens of millions of people. As Lenin said, to make an omelet, you have to break some eggs. In order to achieve the goal, common good, the public interest, something, something, something collectivistic, we need a use force. And that's how they rationalize it and justify it. But one of the reasons they rationalize and justify it is because there is a general understanding among human beings that in general, force is not good.

Adam, I kept track and in L.A. County and cities with high East Asian percentage cultures where masks are customary for travel or if one has a sniffle, had half the COVID cases relative to the whole country, considering a mask for travel. I think what a mask helps is not so much in preventing you from getting sick because that can be from touching things.

It can be from, you know, lots of ways in which you can get sick. But I think it helps primarily if you are sick, not infecting others. So I think the mask is primarily a tool to prevent infecting other people rather than as a tool to prevent infecting yourself. And the Asians are very good at that. If the Asians have, in Asian cultures, if you have the sniffles, you wear a mask. So, you know, I...

I don't know that wearing a mask will help. And there's a real inconvenience to it. So there's a question of would I rather get sick once in a while? I mean, if masks really helped, if they completely stopped it, then yeah, it would be worth it. But some of what I tend to get is clearly not an airborne stuff. And I am skeptical about how useful a mask is, particularly if it's not a, what, N95 or whatever they're called mask.

And then wearing them is a real hassle. It's a real hassle. But again, I think the courtesy of wearing one, if you feel bad, that would be something that would be well worth adopting. All right. There are also other reasons why the Asian population might have gotten less COVID. You know, they were better protecting the elderly. But look, I didn't get COVID-19.

And this is the thing, and this is why I'm suspicious about my own immune system, because I didn't get COVID for the first, what, two years of COVID? I traveled throughout COVID. I went to a restaurant. I didn't wear a mask much. I mean, I wear a mask where I had to wear a mask. I didn't wear a mask much. Again, I traveled. I flew.

I was going back and forth from California to Puerto Rico. I went to, you know, as soon as countries opened up, I flew to Israel. You know, I know that I traveled because I used to go and have to get a COVID test every time before I got on a plane, right? You had to get a COVID test. I remember getting COVID tested in California.

all over the country, like in Colorado and California and other places. I figured out which labs to use and which labs not to use, what is good and what is not. I did all that, and I never got COVID. My wife got COVID. I spent 10 days with her while she had COVID, right? We didn't know she had COVID. Never got infected, slept in the same bed. She didn't wear a mask, you know, in the house because she didn't know she had COVID. She only knew she had COVID after the fact. So...

We still don't really understand how COVID was transmitted and all of that. And a lot of it just has to be with your own immune system. And that's why, well, why is me is not the travel. I've traveled, what, last 25 years, 30 years. It's why I'm getting as often sick as off as I am. Maybe I'm not sleeping as well. Maybe my immune system is weaker.

uh, that would be not good. So I need to figure out what's going on with my immune system. So I stopped getting as sick as often as I am. Um, I tested all the time with COVID. So I, I, I probably didn't have it because I was testing constantly, right? Cause every time I traveled, I had to test and I never had a positive test until two years later where I got it. Um,

Yeah, and I've been traveling, and I, yeah, I would get sick pretty much every season once or twice. But this is like the fifth time, I think. It's getting ridiculous. All right, Ian, I'm less positive than you. Right now, companies like mine are holding off on new investment. Yep, due to uncertainty, and that is not going away under Trump. And this is before Trump replaces Jerome Powell with Navarro or Miriam. So that's right. That's why there's no economic growth, really. We're going to stagnate.

On the other hand, in tech, there will be growth. AI will result in growth. Deregulation of the EPA will result in growth. In energy, some sectors in energy, there will be growth. So you've got stagnation. You've got literally some companies going out of business. And then you've got some areas where there will be growth. I mean, tech will grow, partially because they're going to get the exclusion from tariffs.

And partially because AI is going to make just everything more productive. Apple is not trimming its plans for new products going into the future. And there's a lot of money still flowing in Silicon Valley. There's a lot of venture capital money still flowing. So, yeah, I mean, this is not going to be a robust economy.

We're not going to grow. We could be in a recession. We could have slow economic growth. We could have negative economic growth. I just don't think we're heading to the Great Depression. I'm not trying to be Pollyannish or positive. I don't think this economy will grow. I just think it is not going to collapse. It's not going to fall off a cliff. And yeah, the tariffs are going to cost Apple. They're going to cost everybody.

And it's just a waste. It's just destructive destruction with no upside. All of that is absolutely true. Get angry and then get over it because you got a life to live. Got a life to live. And a lot of people lose their jobs and they're going to lose their jobs because of Trump. And then they're going to lose their jobs because of AI. And the people who lose their jobs because of AI won't be able to find new jobs because of Trump. All of that is true. All of that is going to happen. All of that sucks.

Get angry and move on. Protect your own life. Figure out how to do the best that you can with what we have, because Trump's not going away. And the bad policies are for a while not going away. I think Trump is going to cave. He's got, you know, things in that sense. It'll be better. But I thought criminal will Trump cave in into China wholesale. I think he will.

He'll pretend he's won. He'll get some concessions from China. China will say, OK, we won't send fentanyl to Mexico anymore. We promise Trump will declare victory and do all kinds of other stuff. Look, I'm not making economic predictions because I don't know. What I'm saying is there's likely to be a recession. I think generally we're in for long term stagnation.

I don't expect falling off a cliff. I don't expect great depression. I don't expect, you know, a financial crisis could happen. We'll see what triggers it. If a lot of companies start going bankrupt, if we start seeing a financial crisis, even financial crisis, sadly, our central government knows how to handle so it doesn't become a depression. Sadly, I say, because maybe we need a depression to wake ourselves up.

We will limp along. We will limp along, which means stagnation, stagflation, maybe negative growth or very, very, very low positive growth. That's my prediction. It's been my prediction for the last 20 years that we will have slow growth. Now I think there's a possibility of negative growth, but it's not going to be negative 5%, although there might be a quarter of negative 5%. I think over the long run, it's close to zero growth.

whether negative or positive. Michael, do you think Trump is feeling the pressure that many people in his own party are turning on him? Many people in the business world who he wants to respect him are putting pressure on him to change course. Yes, I do think he's feeling the pressure, less so from the political side of it, because I don't think the politicians have the guts to tell him what they think.

But I do think he feels it from businessmen coming to him and saying, look, we're heading to recession. We're going to have to lay people off. What you're doing, you know, might, you know, they're sucking up to him and pretending that there's some good in it. But they're basically telling him that this is bad and you need to change course. And I think that he feels, you know, when Walmart and Target and Home Depot, I think, came to him, the CEO's,

You know, I think that's when he did a pause on his so-called reciprocal tariffs. And I think you'll see more of that in the weeks to come. There's more backtracking as he gets more feedback from the business community about how damaging what he's doing is. Rational IP. In today's emotional follower-driven culture, what practical steps can we take to restore reason, individualism, and leadership? And how can someone strategically contribute to that long-term shift? Look, there's only really one way to do it.

And that is, I mean, two ways, if you will. One way is to speak up, is not to hide your views. It's to talk, talk, talk, right, right, right. Use every venue available to you within your scope to speak up against what's going on and to present a rational alternative in whatever context you can. That's how cultures change. And at the same time, support the intellectuals.

who have bigger audiences, who can leverage their audiences to get your message out to more people. There's nothing else that can be done. Stay away from politics right now. I don't think it's helpful right now. But embrace speaking. Embrace better intellectuals. Embrace whoever you find online. And then use whatever means you have, social media, to amplify people.

Amplify the message from the intellectuals you follow. So take somebody like Phil Magnus that we had on the show on Thursday. Somebody, again, who calls himself a libertarian related to the question before. But take Phil Magnus and he writes really, really good stuff on social media on trade and tariffs. Start actively sharing his stuff, liking and sharing it. And find some others who you support and actively share and like his

And even if you think, oh, my audience already knows all this stuff, it doesn't matter. Every time you share, the algorithm pays attention to that and amplifies his reach. That's how you game the algorithm. You game the algorithm by participating, by engaging. What the algorithm cares about is engagement. So, you know, I encourage you to just engage. Don't stay on the sidelines. Don't sweat quite. You can't afford to be on the sidelines. You can't afford to stay quiet.

A country is being taken away from us by both political parties. And right now, biggest threat is Trump. OK, you have to not present just an anti-Trump position. You have to present a positive position and you have to do it in your own realm, in your own world, and then amplify the message of those intellectuals who support the kind of world you would want. I think those are the only two things you can do.

For one who views himself as an individual, politics is important, but it doesn't define his essential view of the universe as auspicious to values. For a collectivist, everything is political. Do you agree? Why is that? Well, because what is politics? Politics is how we deal with other people when it comes to force. For a collectivist who believes in force subjugating the individual to the collective, you know...

This matters because it's all about the collective. And it was about my collective versus their collective. It's all about my tribe versus their tribe.

And that means constant politics. It means his life is not important. So he's not going to devote time to thinking, figuring out how to live the best life he can live. But instead, he devotes time to how to manipulate the game so that he wins, his tribe wins, and the other tribe loses. It's all win-lose. And he's constantly engaged in political battles as a consequence. All right, Jennifer, Neil Putt from the Song Marathon. This is a quote from Neil Putt.

You can do a lot in a lifetime if you don't burn out too fast. You can make the most of the distance. First, you need endurance. First, you've got to last. Yeah. I mean, yes, you've got to build endurance. But to do that, you've got to really push. You've got to really try. You've got to really...

Focus your mind on your life, on living, on doing the best that you can, having the best life possible. Perda has amazing lyrics, amazing lyrics. You can see the strong influence of Ayn Rand. I mean, life is not a marathon. It's not a marathon. It's because you're constantly engaged in sprinting. So it's a sprint with maybe some rest and maybe a marathon and maybe then two sprints after one after the other.

and then a medium jog, and then a marathon, and then lots of little sprints. I mean, often life is more like high-intensity interval training, right? Sprint, on, off, on. I mean, you can't view it, oh, it's a marathon. I'm just going to cruise. I'm just going to cruise. That's not the way it is. It's not life. Yeah, but it's not a good metaphor. It's not a good metaphor. In life, you've got to be willing to sprint. And

As you get better at spending, your long-term prospects improve as well. It requires continuous effort and effort at various levels of intensity, depending on what's going on. All right, Christos, Turkey seems to be as aggressive an expansionist as Russia's China. They invaded Syria, oppressed the Kurds, and constantly threatened Israel and Greece. Why does the West treat them as an ally? Thanks, Christos.

I mean, because they're still under the illusion that Turkey is a westernizing country. It is, because of history, still a member of NATO and they treat it as such. I don't think it's quite as aggressive as Russia and China. And I don't have it has the military capabilities. But yeah, it's threatening Israel. It's threatening Greece. It's not doing anything, but it is threatening. And it's definitely oppressing the Kurds. But it's been doing that for 50 years and nobody seems to care.

The invasion of Syria, to a large extent, nobody cares because they got rid of a horrible dictatorship or their proxies got rid of a horrible dictatorship. So, you know, people focus on the positive, I guess, which is getting rid of Assad rather than negative, which has increased Turkish power. We're still under the illusion that Turkey is...

what it was in, in, in, in the past, which was a, a, a westernizing country. And it's not, it's turned its back against the West and Western values. More importantly, uh, what did I just do? Oh, I just may, I just gifted some memberships. All right, Andrew, uh, reality doesn't require infallibility. In fact, consciousness efficaciousness depends on knowing one's mistakes to correct for the next similar circumstances one encounters. Yes, absolutely. I mean, uh,

Failure is part of life. It just is. You're not going to succeed in everything. You're going to fail. And the ability to succeed in the future is going to depend on how well you handle failures today, how well you deal with them. And the better you deal with the failures, the more you learn from them, the better the positive in your life is going to be.

And says, you said that many people have been saying you're not objective about Trump. Did you mean lately or rather since Trump came on the scene? Well, lately, one person told me that, but he happens to be a fairly large supporter of the show. But, you know, I've been told that for 10 years, in spite of the fact that I've been right about Trump for 10 years. So I think I am objective about Trump. I think my constant negativity about Trump is

is a hundred percent justified. If anything, I might be a little soft on him. I think Trump own or everything Trump does only seemingly, particularly the second term as, as, as confirmed everything I've thought about him, everything I I've said about him. Uh, so which suggested maybe I've been objective. So people have told me that over the last 10 years, um,

You know, nobody, again, and recently, it's obvious that my negativity around Trump has cost me in terms of subscribers. That is because people don't want to hear it. That's fine. But I think I've been extraordinarily objective about Trump. I think I continue to be extraordinarily objective about Trump. And I think that reality keeps confirming that I'm right and have been right about Trump. And, you know, you ignore reality at your own peril.

I choose not to. I choose not to. And yeah, and hopefully more and more people are coming to the conclusion that they were overly positive about Trump because I think that conclusion is demanded by his actions over the last 100 days, 100 or so days. But I'm okay with losing subscribers. These are not subscribers. I'm not losing contributors on a monthly basis. Patreon is growing.

um, um, you know, uh, um, PayPal is stable. Um, so, you know, super chat has been really good. So I'm not losing, uh, the subscribers who support the show. I'm losing people who don't want to subscribe to somebody who is anti-Trump and that's fine. And, uh, Ben Shapiro, who,

criticizes Trump, but does it more moderately and says good things about Trump, I think is the one being non-objective because he's too positive about Trump. He's being non-objective in that his criticism is too value-free, value-neutral. I am not value-neutral. What Trump does affects my life, and I will reflect that fact in my commentary. I'm not value-neutral about anything. Values are what everything is about. Being objective is

means being objective about my life. It doesn't mean not knowing what's a threat to my values. So, you know, Ben Shapiro is very careful not to alienate too much of his audience. I'm not because I'm going to tell you the truth. I'm going to tell you what I think. I'm going to tell you what my values are. I'm going to judge. And then you judge me. And some of you judge me to be not interesting or not objective or not balanced or whatever you want to call it.

You're right. Andrew, don't let others determine your metaphysical attitude. Yes. That's what I just said. Thank you, Andrew. Michael, what are the aspects of due process for illegal immigrants? Well, you know, so, okay, you're illegal. Due process requires that we discover whether you really are illegal, right? So first is, are you illegal?

Give you an opportunity to show that you're not, that you're illegal, that you got asylum papers, that you've applied for legal status. Whatever. Our immigration system is complex enough that the distinction between illegal and legal is not that clear. And you need due process in order to discover that. Second,

Given that some of these illegal immigrants are being sent to prisons, not just deported, but sent to prisons, are you a criminal? If you're not a criminal, by what right does the government send you to a prison? Being an illegal immigrant means deportation, doesn't mean incarceration in an El Salvadorian jail. So you need due process to establish whether somebody is really a criminal and deserves to be incarcerated. So those are two aspects.

I mean, it's not an accident because we don't have due process. People who are not illegal immigrants have been deported and people who are not criminals have been sent to El Salvador in jail. Michael, it seems the best way to implement socialist policies is by running on a platform that you hate the left. It does, doesn't it? The best way to impose socialist policies is by pretending you're not a socialist.

But remember, the Nazi party was the National Socialist Party. Everybody was a socialist. I mean, everybody on the right and the left was socialist in those days. And maybe everybody on the far right and the far left are still socialist. Lucinda started reading Starship Troopers. Any thoughts on Henlein or science fiction in general? I mean, I'm a fan of Henlein's. At least I was. Last time I read Henlein, I was probably in my 30s.

So I haven't read his book in a long time, but I really enjoyed them in my 20s and 30s. Starship Trooper is one where he's flirting with fascism. So you just have to be aware of that. And I think you'll see it. But it's still interesting. And it still causes you to think and think about what citizenship means. White people go to army, voting, the rule of voting, who should vote. So there's a lot of things to think about.

And that's the virtue of Han Lai's novel. Books always causes you to think. You know, Strange In the Strange Land will cause you to think a lot about sex, relationships, how we treat the unknown. Moon is Our Mistress is very political. There's a Randian character, one of the heroes is a Randian, influenced by Rand. There's a Han Lai Red Rand, there's no question about.

My favorite is Time Enough for Love. Time Enough for Love was my favorite headline book. It was the most benevolent. It was the most fun, interesting. Also, it causes you to challenge a lot of preconceptions. So I'm a big fan. Generally, I like science fiction. I don't read enough of it. But because it provides you with an opportunity to play around with science

You know, different political schemes, different types of characters, different type of challenges, different types of values. So I think there's a lot that can be done with science fiction. I think there are a lot of very talented science fiction writers. I think a lot of the more romantic writers and the better writers turn to science fiction and away from call it serious fiction, which is in the hands of the more morbid writers.

less interesting, naturalistic writers. Michael, first they take the mind, then they take the body. Yeah, it's much, much easier to take the body once they take the mind. Much, much easier. But it's also harder to take the mind. But in the mind, they often take without knowing, right? So by spreading ideology, but they don't really realize the impact of it. Jacob, what would laws, acts would be needed to make American cities be truly great?

eliminate railroad regulations, zoning, interstate highway funding, labor controls and construction, anything else. Yeah, I'm sure there's a lot of related to zoning land use restrictions that would need to be lifted. A lot of the city planning would have to be eliminated. And then the other thing that cities and counties could do is privatize a lot of their services and

figure out how to create business models that allow trash collection and utility provisioning and all that to be for-profit, you know, competitive in the private sector. But, you know, if they got rid of railroad regulations, zoning, interstate highway funding, labor controls and construction, but also all the other things about construction. There are a million different regulations regarding construction. For example, how many bathrooms...

Per bedroom are you allowed to build in an apartment or a house? Minimal square footage. You can't build apartments that are smaller than X. It exists in New York City, I think. What else? All kinds of other things that make housing really, really expensive. So a lot of the construction regulations, not with regard to safety, but with regard to what they consider...

living, minimal living, needs to be eliminated. So a lot of regulations regarding housing and construction need to be eliminated. Michael, if one single person does not have the right to due process in your country, neither do you. Yeah. I mean, you can't. Everybody has a right to due process, so nobody has it. And this is why first they come for the illegal immigrants, then they come for the

you know, legal immigrants, and then they come from the American born. So, you know, there's no limit. You know, they'll come for the journalists. They'll come for the people who criticize them. Now, once you eliminate due process, yeah, it's a slippy slope. Slippy slopes exist. Wes, thank you for the $50. Really, really appreciate that $50 sticker. That is fantastic. Michael, I don't like J.D. Vance. I don't think J.D. Vance could win.

He's not charismatic, bad at lying and rather unlikable. I think that's probably true. He didn't win a Senate campaign in spite of that. He was elected vice president in spite of that. So never say never. But particularly given the bad performance of Trump, I think, you know, economic performance and other. I don't think I think J.D. Vance is probably not going to be able to win, which is really good news. There is Josh Hawley there out there to be afraid of, though.

Here on, since you've been into art for so long, did you ever come across the term shape language? I find it weird how it's being introduced to me as something people have evolved to respond to. No, I never have. And it sounds like BS to me. It sounds like, yeah, just something that people make up to justify the non-objective art that they want to hoist upon us and pretend that it has meaning.

Lucinda, got to go to a call with a friend. We'll watch the rest of the show later. Everyone remember to reach the Super Chat goal. And remember, you can send stickers. Thank you, Lucinda. Really appreciate it. Lucinda doing a little bit of marketing for me. I appreciate that. We're about $150 short of the stretch goal, the three-hour goal. There's a chance we'll reach past the two hours. We'll see. Still got a few questions left.

When you feel like stopping, think about why you started. That's from Michael. Yes, find motivation in the motivation you had to start. Why did you ever start? Now, sometimes stopping is the right thing to do, right? Not everything you start is worthwhile. Continue. Regain that motivation to really objectively assess whether you should stop or start. Michael, how do these tariffs affect boom airlines today?

it could be the case that the disruptive and transformative nature of Boom saves the stock market and boosts economic growth despite statism. Well, I don't think any one company can do that. I don't think Boom's market share even potentially is that big. I also think Boom's real productive contribution to the world is still five years away at least, probably a decade away in terms of real impact. So I wouldn't

I wouldn't put too much onto the boom shoulders. How much could it affect it? I don't know. My guess is that some parts that go into the boom engine or go into the boom fuselage or whatever are probably made in China. There's probably some effect from China onto that.

At this point, they're not mass producing. So right now it doesn't matter. Probably doesn't affect the next few years as they build a prototype. My assumption is that they can build a prototype without any problem. So but if it remains long term, they will have a problem in scaling up and producing hundreds of jets. Michael says, hang in there, it gets worse. Well, if it gets worse, why should I hang in there?

Thank you, Robert, for the sticker. Thank you, Lucinda. Thank you, Jeff. Really, really appreciate that. I think they're getting on a $1.99 sticker. Maybe everybody who's on the show right now, do a $1.99 sticker. Like, that's less than a cappuccino. And, yeah, that would be fun to see a bunch of $1.99 stickers. Of course, you can also do Jeff's three Canadian dollars sticker.

But Lucinda did a euro 99 and Robert did a buck 99. So keep it coming. Andrew, Rand reacted to Mike Wallace asking if she was a pessimist with incredulity. Not at all, she said. She viewed trying to spread a philosophy as evidence of optimism. And she was no Pollyanna. Yeah, it was also, what is it, 50 years ago? It was also a long time ago. So...

A lot of bad things have happened since then. But I agree. I'm not a pessimist. I am. And I'm positive. I think things can change. They can get better. I don't think we're doomed. I don't think we're falling off a cliff. And I expect I expect the world will be a better place in 100 years than it is now. I don't know about 20, but in 100 years, I do. Frank, Musk said patents are for the weak.

For those who innovate slowly, there should be no patents required.

Most inhibit innovation, not help it. Please comment. I mean, I don't have time to get into this. It's a huge topic. But I obviously disagree with Musk. I think patents are essential for economic growth. The patent system was very robust in the United States during the 19th century and early 20th century when economic growth was very fast and very innovative. And there's a lot of innovation and big innovation and innovation in atoms, not just in electrons.

and big and good stuff happened. So empirically, it's just not true. America was, you know, the people who used patents were not the weak, and you saw massive and successful economic growth during that period. So just historically, it's not true. And theoretically, it's not true. Patents are formed protecting property rights. And property rights are an essential building block of...

The capitalism of markets. And I've had Adam Moss off on several times to talk about patents over the years. I'm sure I'll have him on again. But if you're interested in digging deeper into patents, check out Adam Moss off online. RDF.

Thank you for the sticker, Paul. Thank you for the sticker, Stephen Harper. Thank you. No one, thank you. So we got a bunch of 199 going. We got a two. We got a four euros. So yeah, a buck 99 from everybody. Let's do it. We got 150 people watching. This Bonnie just did another buck 99. This is good. I love it. Just chipping away like that and getting all of you involved. It's a blast and value for value. You're watching. You're getting something out of this show.

Show the value in return. Luke, thought I'd send something because how often you respond to my chats today. First super chat. First super chat. Excellent. Thank you, Luke. Did it tell me it was your first super chat? I didn't notice that. So congratulations. Thank you very much. It didn't say it was the first super chat. Interesting. Thank you. That is amazing. I like numbers.

Haven't you predicted stagnation for a few years? Yeah. And we've had pretty low predicted stagnation for 20 years since the great financial crisis. I said the bailout, the great financial crisis, the result would be slow economic growth. Now, we haven't had we've had slightly higher economic growth than I would have expected. So it's been two to three percent closer to two under Obama, under Trump, under Biden, etc.

Now I expect lower, so I wouldn't be surprised if stagnation manifests itself 1% now. Remember that I believe the economy could go at 5%, 6%. So 2% growth is stagnation from my perspective. But yeah, I've been predicting stagnation for a long time. Mirko, thank you. Hey, Yaron. Thanks. Value for value. I appreciate that.

I'm still waiting to hear from you about Italy this summer, if we're doing something, if we're meeting up and if we're doing an event in Moderna and if we're doing something. Let me know. Thank you, Mirko. Let's see. I got that. Gail, thank you for the sticker. Alan, thank you for the sticker.

All doing $1.99, $2.99, $3. Yeah, this is great. This is great. We're already only 81 short from the stretch goal. This is fantastic. Frank, what's your take on the banner as a tool of free speech? Wouldn't it often be reckless? Also, is dollar weak or strong if I pay $18 for 15 British pounds? The banner, I mean, there is no such thing as a tool of free speech.

There's no such thing as a tool of free speech. The banner has free speech. It's free speech needs to be protected and it's protected through the government needs to protect it by not using force against it, by not allowing other people to use force against it. But it's not a tool of free speech. And was it often reckless? Yeah, it was often reckless and wrong, but there's not, you have a right to be reckless up to a point unless you're endangering people physically.

Is the dollar weak or strong? It's still strong historically, weaker than it was three months ago, six months ago. I haven't got the chart in front of me, but still relatively strong. There have been periods in history where it's been weaker. It's all relative, right? It's still pretty strong from a historical perspective, which is all we really have to go on. Rafael, hi, Iran. Can you explain what happened to Hypatia, who killed...

Who killed her in the historical context just finished a Gora movie and really enjoyed it. Yeah, the Gora movie is excellent. You know, I don't know the details of the history. I know the Gora movie is not historically correct. That is, it takes a lot of liberties with history, which is fine because it's a movie. And you should be able to do that in a movie in order to dramatize. It's not clear that that's when the library was burnt and those were the circumstances and probably weren't.

And I don't remember how she died or who killed her. But she was a female philosopher, one of the last, you know, one of the last who before the kind of the beginning of the Dark Ages and the end of Rome. So she's still at the edge of the Roman Empire. This is in Alexandria, right?

She's still a pagan. She has not. But the Christians are slowly taking over, destroying the libraries, destroying the learning and destroying the whole idea of philosophy, core philosophy. And, you know, this is this is Hypatia's death is part of that decline of Western civilization into a Christian dark ages.

Andrew, there are no people in the world who could compete with us in any area of production, including manufacturing, if American ingenuity was combined with laissez-faire, rational, or American bravado. I'd say American bravado. I mean, is that really true, right? I mean, and what are you comparing to? Are you comparing to other countries having laissez-faire as well? The Germans are pretty damn good at...

at manufacturing certain things that America's never been particularly good at. Americans have never been particularly good at. So textiles in mass and cheaply, Chinese are probably better than America, even if America was laissez-faire, and we wouldn't want to produce it is part of the issue, right? So it's not clear what that even means. It's a very collectivistic view of the world. We are better at manufacturing. Who's we?

What does it mean? How do you measure that? Would we make everything ourselves? Obviously not. So how do we even know? It's just a meaningless, in the end, sorry, Andrew, but it's just a meaningless statement driven by collectivism, a collectivistic view of economics, which is all around us. So it's easy to get captured by it. David, thank you for your first super chat as a sticker.

But really, really appreciate it. Linda, thank you for the super chat. Timmy Cochran, thank you for the super chat. You guys are great. Really, really appreciate it. We're only $51 away from the stretch goal. Lucinda, thanks to YBS and AOI, I can focus less on politics and most of my time on studying, reading, and my other hobbies and values. And thank you. And thank you for supporting the Iran Book Show.

I really appreciate that. All right. Andrew, do you interpret that when someone tries to sum up what you're saying in a pithy generalization in Super Chat, the essential mode of it work is to help him integrate the essence of what you're saying? Yes. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, pithy, short,

I mean, that's really good ways to summarize it. And sometimes I critique it because it's not fully understood. Maybe I didn't express myself well first time. But yeah, I think I do interpret it that way. Richard, thank you. $20. I'm studying AI after 40 years in tech and find it's like working on a move with continuous script rewrites.

On a movie with continuous script rewrites, I suggest that you project how you will use AI, for example, enriching your knowledge. Yeah, I have an idea how I want to use AI for marketing help primarily, summarizing, like I'd love to be able to, and I know this is possible, basically feed the AI my show and have it summarize it for me and then include the summary in the description of the show.

And in the marketing material, like on Twitter and stuff, when I market the show. So that is step one that I would like to do. But there's things like that that I would like to do. And then there's also stuff about just enriching my knowledge. That is a lot easier. And I still am not quite ready to replace book reading with AI.

Kabuta, why do we believe financial markets are efficient when institutional investors is mostly run by Keynesians or other variations of pseudo economics? Well, because I don't think it is run by Keynesian. I think that most that the investors that matter, the investors that matter are the marginal investors, the investors that are willing to buy or sell as price changes. The long term holders of stocks don't matter for prices.

Most institutional investors are just by hold investors. Really, the people who make a difference are the hedge funds and the Warren Buffetts of the world. And I can tell you none of those are Keynesian, certainly not the hedge funds. And because they are the ones that are constantly price searching, price seeking, looking at prices and trying to evaluate sell or buy, buy or sell. They can do both. They can short, they can long.

They're the ones who actually determine prices. And to the extent that they're successful over time, they grow and therefore they have more market power. To the extent that their failures over time, they shrink, they disappear and they have less market power. So the market reinforces the good within it. All right, last two questions with $31 away from the target.

From the stretch target. Fred Harper. Speaking of science fiction, just finished Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy. I found it hilarious, but I've learned to laugh at cynicism. It's absurd cynical. Ha ha. Have you read it? I have not. I have not read it. Never appealed to me the kind of absurd cynicism that it embraces. But I know a lot of people who love it. All right. Last question from Rational IP.

Thanks for your insights today. They are very inspiring. I'm really enjoying my journey into objectivism to end on a light note. What's one tech company you admire and why does it stand out to you? I mean, the obvious one is Apple. As I think everybody knows, I admire Apple. Steve Jobs is one of my all time business heroes. He is a, he, I think he, he was a real giant. Um, and, uh,

I like the way he carried himself. I like the way he presented. I like his strategic thinking. I like his long-term thinking. The guy had vision and he understood what was important and he changed the world. And Apple still has some of that DNA in it. It's not quite as innovative and exciting as it was when Jobs was alive, but it's still damn good. And Tim Cook,

is more of an operator, more an executioner, more supply chain guy and a manufacturing guy, but you have to admire that as well. Um, and, and, uh, probably more political than diplomatic than Steve jobs would have been. So I, I, I, you know, I love that company and I respect that company. Um, I, you know, I'm, I'm a little detached. What other tech companies that I admire? Um, yeah, I'm not a big social media person. Um,

You know, I love Amazon. I love Amazon. Amazon has changed our lives in dramatic fashion. And yet everybody takes it for granted and loves to hate it. And yet they're real heroes at Amazon. And they've made the world a better place for all of us. They've changed the way we think about shopping, the way we think about storage, you know, think cloud computing.

Yeah, I mean, Amazon's another great, great company. Its hardware is a mixed bag. But again, it's, you know, it's just changed the way you do things. I mean, think about how much you get if you buy one of those Amazon fire sticks, how simple, easy, small and cheap that is and how much value it contains on it. I mean, to be able to stream Netflix and all those things. It's just, yeah, it's amazing how much value Amazon provides.

Friend Harper, thank you for the sticker. And we're dollar short of our goal. Maybe somebody can do a dollar sticker. Okay, we've got two additional questions. Hey, Ron, Destiny has some serious sexual allegations against him, in case you didn't know. Never heard that. Mentioning, so it's not a surprise if it comes up in any capacity. Thanks, Nick. I did not know that. And I have no idea how serious they are. I assume if they're serious, you'll be prosecuted around them.

But thanks for giving me the heads up. Michael, what will Trump do if the Supreme Court throws out his tariffs this fall? I think he'll have to retrench and he'll have to come back with something different. I don't think that Trump wants to negate the Supreme Court. He will sideline and he will hesitate and he will evade it as much as he can for as long as he can. But in the end, I think he will...

accept the rulings of the Supreme Court and live by them. I hope I'm right. I'm not sure I'm right, but I hope I'm right. All right, Andrew just did a sticker to get us past the goal. Really, really appreciate that. Thank you, guys. Thank you, everybody, for being so generous. All right, show tomorrow at...

2 or 3 p.m. Eastern Time. Partially depends on how the Destiny thing goes. Or maybe it'll be in the evening because I don't think I have an interview guest for tomorrow evening. So maybe I'll move the news show to the evening. If my voice is going after tomorrow, we'll see. But for now, thank you. I'm going to try to get some rest so I can keep going tomorrow.

I will thank you, Duffy Sutton, for the sticker. Appreciate it. Thank you all. And yeah, see you tomorrow. Thanks to the Super Chatters. Have a great rest of your Sunday. Bye.