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cover of episode 309 - They Thought We Were Ridiculous - Andy Luttrell (rebroadcast)

309 - They Thought We Were Ridiculous - Andy Luttrell (rebroadcast)

2025/3/17
logo of podcast You Are Not So Smart

You Are Not So Smart
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
A
Amos Tversky
A
Andy Luttrell
C
Colin Camerer
行为经济学和神经经济学领域的先驱，通过实验和科学方法研究决策行为和经济行为。
D
Daniel Kahneman
R
Richard Thaler
Topics
Daniel Kahneman: 我和阿莫斯·特沃斯基的研究改变了人们对思维方式的理解，我们发现人类的决策并非完全理性，而是受到各种认知偏差的影响。我们通过‘单一问题心理学’的方法，设计出一些简单的问题，揭示出人们在判断和决策中会犯的系统性错误，例如可得性启发式、锚定启发式和代表性启发式。这些发现不仅对心理学领域产生了深远的影响，也彻底改变了经济学，催生了行为经济学这个新的领域。 Amos Tversky: 我和丹尼尔·卡尼曼合作，发现了人类认知中存在的几种重要的启发式和偏差，例如可得性启发式、锚定启发式和代表性启发式。这些启发式虽然在大多数情况下能够帮助我们快速做出判断，但在某些情况下会导致系统性的错误。我们的研究成果对心理学和经济学等多个领域产生了深远的影响，改变了人们对自身认知和决策过程的理解。 Andy Luttrell: 卡尼曼和特沃斯基的研究，特别是他们提出的‘单一问题心理学’方法，非常巧妙地揭示了人类认知偏差。通过精心设计的问题，他们能够精准地捕捉到人们在判断和决策中所犯的错误，并以此来深入理解人类的认知机制。他们的研究成果对行为经济学的发展起到了至关重要的作用。 Richard Thaler: 我最初的研究发现，人们的实际行为与经济学模型中的理性假设存在偏差。后来，我接触到卡尼曼和特沃斯基的研究，他们的发现解释了这种偏差的系统性，即人们并非随机地犯错，而是存在一些可预测的认知偏差。这促使我将心理学与经济学结合起来，发展行为经济学。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter explores the groundbreaking work of Kahneman and Tversky, who challenged the prevailing belief in human rationality. It introduces the concept of "the psychology of single questions" and the Linda problem as a prime example of how intuitive thinking can lead to errors in judgment.
  • Kahneman and Tversky challenged the assumption of human rationality in decision-making.
  • The "Linda problem" demonstrates how intuitive thinking can lead to statistically incorrect conclusions.
  • The concept of "heuristics" as mental shortcuts is introduced.
  • The psychology of single questions is highlighted as a powerful research method.

Shownotes Transcript

In 1974, two psychologists, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, as the New Yorker once put it, "changed the way we think about the way we think." The prevailing wisdom, before their landmark research went viral (in the way things went viral in the 1970s), was that human beings were, for the most part, rational optimizers always making the kinds of judgments and decisions that best maximized the potential of the outcomes under their control. This was especially true in economics at the time. The story of how they generated a paradigm shift so powerful that it reached far outside economics and psychology to change the way all of us see ourselves is a fascinating tale, one that required the invention of something this episode is all about: The Psychology of Single Questions.

They Thought We Were Ridiculous)

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