We're sunsetting PodQuest on 2025-07-28. Thank you for your support!
Export Podcast Subscriptions
cover of episode Is the Future of Flight Supersonic?

Is the Future of Flight Supersonic?

2025/4/17
logo of podcast What's Your Problem?

What's Your Problem?

AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
B
Blake Scholl
J
Jacob Goldstein
Topics
Jacob Goldstein: 我认为超音速飞行在经济上是可行的,并且存在巨大的市场需求。协和飞机的失败以及阿波罗计划的终止,并非意味着超音速飞行和太空探索本身不可行,而是因为其背后的动机和模式存在问题。协和飞机的失败是因为其票价过高,导致客座率低,经济上不可行。人们普遍认为超音速飞行成本高昂且不经济,但这是一种基于定性而非定量的错误判断。超音速飞行的经济性问题是一个定量问题,需要进行数学计算来确定其可行性。协和飞机和阿波罗计划都是冷战时期的产物,其经济效益低下,是政府为了争夺声望而进行的“命令与控制”项目。 Blake Scholl: 超音速飞行的经济性取决于能否以乘客可承受的价格和航空公司可盈利的价格生产。从理论上讲,利用现有技术,建造一架经济实惠且对航空公司有利的超音速飞机是可行的。国际商务舱市场巨大,为超音速飞行提供了可观的潜在市场。如果能提高协和飞机的燃油效率不到10%,就能使其经济效益达到商务舱水平。超音速飞机的音爆问题并非不可克服,可以通过技术手段和航线规划来解决。在XB1测试飞机的研发过程中,我们学习到了务实的重要性,并认识到不必追求过高的速度。追求过高的速度会增加燃油消耗和成本,而飞行时间的缩短却有限。我们应该从一个务实的起点出发,逐步迭代和创新,而不是一开始就追求极致目标。超音速飞机的速度优势不仅体现在缩短飞行时间,还体现在降低运营成本上(速度红利)。我们已经完成了超音速飞机“协奏曲”的设计工作。在飞机设计中,需要在不断优化和按时交付之间取得平衡。获得商业飞行许可需要通过严格的安全测试和认证程序。我们已经筹集了约6亿美元资金,并已设计完成飞机和发动机。我们还需要不到10亿美元的资金来完成项目。我们将通过多种融资方式来降低对投资者资金的依赖。我们通过高效的团队和先进的软件工具来降低成本。我们获得了来自北卡罗来纳州政府的资金支持。我确信在未来还会遇到意想不到的挑战。我致力于超音速飞行是因为它能够改变人们的生活,缩短距离,增进联系。超音速飞机的下一步是扩大规模,包括发动机和飞机本身,并通过安全测试。与大型公司合作开发发动机并非总是最佳选择,自主研发可能更有效。对于初创公司来说,自主研发发动机比与大型公司合作更可靠。垂直整合与否取决于技术成熟度和最终产品的重要性。托运行李应该更加便捷高效。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter analyzes the Concorde, the only supersonic commercial passenger jet, exploring its technological achievements and economic failures. It highlights the Concorde's origins as a Cold War-era project driven by national prestige rather than economic viability, contrasting it with the Apollo program and attributing their shared downfall to unsustainable cost structures and a lack of commercial focus.
  • Concorde's failure is attributed to its Cold War origins and lack of economic sense.
  • Both Concorde and Apollo were command and control projects with no economic sense.
  • Concorde was technologically impressive but uneconomical due to high ticket prices and low passenger capacity.

Shownotes Transcript

Translations:
中文

Pushkin. In golf, precision is everything. On and off the course, PGA of America chose advanced 5G solutions from T-Mobile for Business for smooth operations and seamless transactions. Together, they enhance ticketing and concessions for better fan experiences from gate to green.

This is pro-level efficiency. This is PGA of America with T-Mobile for Business. Take your business further at T-Mobile.com slash now.

I was joking with my producer Jacob the other day, who's one of Pushkin's most valuable employees. I hired him to be my assistant years ago in the most random manner possible. I think he saw a message board posting somewhere and I interviewed him for basically 10 minutes and said, go for it. I made a wild gamble on someone and got incredibly lucky.

But let's be honest, you can't rely on getting lucky when it comes to hiring people. Lightning's not going to strike more than once. You need a system and you need tools. And that's why LinkedIn is so important. LinkedIn is more than just a job board. They help connect you with professionals you can't find anywhere else. Even people who aren't actively looking for a new job.

In a given month, over 70% of LinkedIn users don't visit other leading job sites. So if you're not looking on LinkedIn, you're looking in the wrong place. Hire professionals like a professional and post your job for free at linkedin.com slash gladwell. That's linkedin.com slash gladwell to post your job for free. Terms and conditions apply.

Do you know who wrote "All of Me" by John Legend? Or "If I Were a Boy" by Beyonce? Or "Big Girl's Song Cry" by Fergie? That's me, Toby Gadd. I'm a songwriter and have a brand new podcast called "Songs You Know" with Grammy-winning guests like "Hosier" producer Jeff Giddey, "Charlie XCX" producer John Shafe, Rihanna and Coldplay producer Stargate, and artists like Jessie J, Josh Groban, and Victoria Justice. We're talking about their lives, their songs, their advice, their tips and tricks, and their most embarrassing moments.

So please tune in at Songs You Know podcast with Toby Gadd. The first airline ever, the first airline in the history of the world, started in 1914. It flew passengers just a short hop across the bay from St. Petersburg to Tampa, and its maximum speed was about 60 miles an hour. By the 1960s, just 50 years later, passenger jets were flying 10 times as fast as that. And that increase in speed transformed the meaning of travel. But then, after the 60s,

Air travel just stopped getting faster. A flight today takes about as long as a flight took 60 years ago. We've gone from a 10x improvement to no improvement at all. What happened? I'm Jacob Goldstein, and this is What's Your Problem? The show where I talk to people who are trying to make technological progress. My guest today is Blake Scholl, the founder and CEO of Boom Supersonic.

Blake's problem is this. Can you build a commercial airplane that flies faster than the speed of sound and that can turn a profit? Blake started the company in 2014. Since then, he's secured pre-orders from Japan Airlines, United, and American Airlines. And he and his team built a test plane that flew faster than the speed of sound.

Now they're working on a full-size commercial jet that Blake hopes will fly at Mach 1.7, 1.7 times the speed of sound, or roughly twice as fast as commercial jets fly today.

To start, I asked Blake about the Concorde. The Concorde, of course, is the only supersonic commercial passenger jet ever built, ever flown with passengers on it. But the Concorde stopped flying more than 20 years ago. And today it's widely viewed as a failure. I think Concorde killed supersonic flight and Apollo killed space exploration.

And yet at 1969, we had that first moon landing and we had that first flight of Concorde. And at the time, it looked like both of these were harbingers of huge technological progress for humanity. And I think if you stop somebody in the street in 1969 and said in 2025 –

what do you think space exploration will be like? What do you think flight will be like? No one would have predicted that supersonic would be gone and moon landings would be gone. Right. But that was the peak. It wasn't going to get any better. And in fact, in terms of commercial air travel, it was going to get worse. Yeah. Everything got worse. Everything got worse. And I think Concorde and Apollo are actually brethren. Both

were technologically extremely impressive. Like what we did in the 1960s with rockets and airplanes, with slide rules, drafting paper, wind tunnels,

is extremely technologically impressive. Yet the motivation is what was killer. And both Concord and Apollo were Cold War era glory projects led by governments who are competing for prestige. Basically to show up the Soviet Union, right? To show the superiority of Western capitalism over Soviet communism. Yeah.

Yes, except the deep irony is we did it the communist way. Right. They were command and control projects that made no economic sense. They were command and control projects with no economic sense. And it turns out when the West copied effectively the communist approach, for a little while we had technological superiority because of the momentum that we had. But then we destroyed ourselves.

Uh, and so, you know, Apollo didn't even pretend to have anything commercial, right? Like it was operating on like a percentage of GDP. Right. Which is to say an incredibly large amount of money relative to the overall economy went into getting a very small number of people to the moon a few times. That's, that's, that's right. Yeah. And, you know, and what, and the knock-on effect of that, you know, for the entire aerospace supply chain, it was basically, you know, land on the moon at all costs, uh, or at any cost, uh,

And the result was the entire space out of the supply chain got drunk on these incredibly lucrative contracts where cost was no object. And then after the Cold War, it only got worse. And we put all of the defense industrial base and corporate welfare, and they got fat and dumb. And then on the Concord side, it at least looked better because...

On paper, this was a commercial airplane where people could buy tickets and airlines would buy the airplanes and the airlines would make money. But in reality, it wasn't that. Here's a 100-seat airplane. By the way, 100 actually pretty uncomfortable seats. And what ejected for inflation was a $20,000 ticket. And you just can't find 100 people that want to pay $20,000 to go somewhere really fast. I mean, this is for royalty and rock stars.

And especially with like 80s and 90s kind of travel demand, the thing flew half empty on the best route in the world, which is New York to London. You know, if you want to find people who want to pay a lot of money to go fast, New York, London's the best city pair you could pick. And it doesn't work at all economically beyond that.

Uh, and so, and then the world draw drew all the wrong conclusions. You know, they concluded like supersonic flight had to be expensive. It had to be cramped and uncomfortable. It had to be noisy. It had to be uneconomic. And it's like, imagine, imagine if we built like the Univac, you know, like one of the first mainframe computers, it would just like the size of the room and you have to be like a bank to afford it. And, and then we stopped.

And then 50 years later, people would swear up and down that you could never possibly have a pocket computer that everyday people could afford. But yet, you know, Concorde is like the UNIVAC. It's a design from the 1960s, basically. That's right. And I say this with, like, deep admiration for the incredible technical work that went into it.

A lot of people worked really hard and did amazing things. You know, now that we are, you know, now that at Boom we've like built and flown a supersonic jet, what we can see is they did really, really well given the tech that was available in the 1960s. It's extremely impressive. You know, like in Britain and France, people are incredibly proud of Concorde. And from a technological level, like they deserve to be.

So, okay, you were a software developer, right? You weren't a plane guy. You weren't an aerospace engineer. But like, whatever, 12 years ago or something, you got interested in this idea of supersonic air travel, of why aren't there supersonic jets? So you have this question in your mind. You go try and figure it out. What do you find? The internet was full of all this conventional wisdom about why flights aren't faster. You can still find some of these YouTube videos, and they say things like,

supersonic flight is inherently more expensive. Passengers always buy the cheapest ticket. So supersonic flight will never be commercially viable. And like, hang on. Well, first off, that's a qualitative claim about a quantitative question. And it doesn't even really completely make sense, right? Like, like the whole reason we have jet flights is because people wanted to go faster than propeller flights. Uh, the reason people pay more for, uh, uh, direct flights than connecting is they want to save time and hassle. Um,

time is the one resource that's not ever renewable. So the idea that people wouldn't pay for time savings didn't completely make sense. Sure. Plainly, at some margin, some people will pay some amount more to go some amount faster, right? Exactly. The question is, what are all the margins? Exactly. You're totally right. It's a quantitative question, not a qualitative one. And I think one of the lessons of, I think, the boom story is never accept a qualitative answer to a quantitative question. Go run the math. Okay, what is the actual cost of supersonic flight?

And what is people's actual willingness to pay to go faster? So it turned out it took two weeks to find the key idea, which is, I mean, today there is a huge market for international business class. It's roughly 20% of passengers and 80% of international airline profits on business class, which is flying beds for people who so hate that flights are long that they want to try and sleep through them on the airplane.

Um, and so that the original boom idea was, well, what if we could make a supersonic seat with the economics of a flying bed in business class, but on an airplane sufficiently fast that you wouldn't need to sleep on it. You could sleep at home instead. And, uh, and so the first question I asked is, well, how much would you have to beat Concord by on just basic airplane efficiency in order to create a seat with the economics of a flying bed? And the answer was less than 10%.

So like Concorde was almost there by your reckoning. Yeah, that's right. If you could improve the gas mileage, basically, of Concorde by less than 10%,

Um, that you would tip over to this happy point where you could have a supersonic seat with the economics of a flatbed and business class. And instead of being this like stratospheric airplane that like flies mostly empty, uh, a whole bunch of modern demand would be there. The seats would fill at a high rate and the market would be gigantic. Um, and, uh, and so that, that took two weeks and I was like, well, I don't know anything about airplanes. Like all I had at that point was my pilot's license. Um,

But 10% versus 1960s technology didn't seem crazy. So at that point, I was like, okay, if I'm going to go do this, I need to know a heck of a lot more. And it sort of kicked off what was really a 12-month journey for me getting educated in aerospace. So when you say 10%, I mean, is that sort of a marginal cost calculation? Is that basically setting aside the fixed cost of...

Building the first plane and then building, well, building the first plane. Like that seems like the big unknown in the math there is how much is it going to cost to make plane number one? Yeah. I mean, so there are a few things that matter, right? The first thing is if we could manage to produce the airplane, would it be affordable for passengers and profitable for airlines?

Yeah, that's kind of the first principles version is like, let's just look at the physics and like think what we know. Is it theoretically possible to build an airplane that can fly enough people from New York to London if they pay business class, but sit upright?

Yeah. At supersonic speeds. Does the first principles math pencil out? That's the math you're doing there. That's right. With technology that's available, is it possible to build an airplane that is affordable for passengers and profitable for airlines? And it turned out the answer was yes. Oh.

Uh-huh. And what is business class New York, London? What is that? Five grand? Something like that? Yeah. Yeah. About that. I mean, actually, people routinely pay more than five grand. The economics of our airplane, it turns out 3,500 is break-even. So at five grand, it's very profitable for airlines and people pay five grand. By the way, round trip, routinely. Yeah. Okay. So you've got the kind of first principles back of the envelope math that looks promising. So you started the company. Yes. Yes.

And, and that was, uh, what, about 10 years ago, right? That was. Yeah, it was, um, about 11 years ago now that I was making that spreadsheet. Um, and, uh, you know, we'll, we'll turn, we'll turn 11 on paper in September. Cause that was when I got to the point where, okay, I'm, I'm actually really committed. It's time to go. Um, yeah.

I love that you called it boom, leaning in, embracing the haters in some fashion. Tell me about the boom. Let's talk about supersonic booms. Yeah. So my belief from day one was that the boom would not be the blocker. And that spreadsheet basically said there is a gigantic market for supersonic flight, even if the boom is entirely unsolved. And you have to fly subsonic over land.

and supersonic over water and focus initially on routes that were primarily trans-oceanic. Just to be clear, in the U.S. right now, commercial flights are not allowed to fly supersonic, even if there were a plane that could do it by regulation, right? Because of the boom. Is that the starting point?

Yeah. So that's where we started because the premise was, hey, it's pretty ambitious to start a brand new company from scratch where your goal is to build a supersonic airliner. Let's let's so let's not let's not push anything too far. Let's operate only with existing technology and only with existing regulations.

And that would have some hope of making it tractable for a startup to go do. So I want to talk a little bit about the last 10 years and building XB1, your test plane. And I'm curious in particular, sort of unsurprisingly...

It has taken longer than you thought, which it would be shocking if it didn't, right? Given the nature of the project. But I'm curious, like, what were some of the things you thought at the, at the jump that turned out to be wrong? You know, things where you went down the wrong path and had to do something different. Yeah. So, so when we started out with XB1, we gave it some really, really aggressive, uh, goals. Uh, so we wanted to go 10% faster than Concorde. We wanted to do it with a passenger on board. Um,

We wanted to not need an afterburner. We gave it all these fairly aggressive goals that were actually well beyond what was really necessary. But we thought we didn't appreciate all of the challenges that would come with that. And so we actually made the job a lot harder than it needed to be. And the biggest thing that we learned on XB1 in this context is pragmatism.

It doesn't need to go Mach 2.2. Mach 1.7 is totally fine, minimum viable supersonic jet, and it's dramatically easier. So part of what we learned from XB-1 is how to make the Overture airliner a lot easier to do. And it was things like, if you want to go Mach 2.2, the wings have to be really skinny. And if the wings are really skinny, it's very hard to fly takeoff and landing. And so we ended up spending two years on...

low speed aerodynamics for takeoff and landing with a wing that was really designed to go super, super fast. And then with a long skinny airplane to go Mach 2.2, it's really hard to fit the landing gear in. And so we ended up, I remember in like 2019 when we're like finishing the design of this thing and kind of in the process of building it, I was like, wait a minute, how did we end up in a corner of the universe where we have to design the most efficient shock absorber ever made?

Like that was a bizarre, like literally we had to design the most efficient shock absorber ever made for a landing gear. Why? Well, we'd given ourselves this like unnecessarily challenging top speed goal, which made the airplane log in skinny, which made the landing gear need to fit in a very tight space, which meant the shock absorbers had to be really, really good. Well, why had you, I mean, it's easy from this point of view to say like, why it was foolish to try and go so fast, which is sort of what you're saying. But presumably when you picked that,

Yeah. Well, we there was sort of a scientific reason. And then there was probably an emotional reason. And the scientific reason was we thought we were on the happy side of a lot of market opportunity and on the happy side of the step changes and technological challenge. Right.

based on what we knew from textbooks. The market opportunity means the faster you go, the bigger the market? I mean, is that the market opportunity? That's right. You know, if you speed a flight up, I'll pick an extreme example. Let's say you speed up New York-London by like half an hour. Yeah. You actually make the flight worse. It's still going to be scheduled as a red-eye. Right, but you don't get as much sleep. That's right.

That's right. So it's actually worse. And then presumably if you can go fast enough, you can like fly the same crew to London and back without having to change the crew and your economics get better or something. Bingo. That's one of the ways the economics in this work. When you go faster...

lots of things actually get cheaper. You need less crews. You don't spend money putting people up in Marriott. We call that the speed dividend. There's a lot of cost that comes down with speed. Basically, the cost, the benefits of going 2.2 are the same, but the marginal cost of going that much faster was higher than you thought. That's right. In FuelBurn, once we committed to meeting...

the same most stringent noise rules that apply to subsonic airplanes that, that actually puts a big penalty on high speed. Uh, and we found that at Mach 2.2, we'd be burning 40% more fuel than at 1.7. And yet the, and what that meant in flight times was actually just a 15 minute difference. Uh huh. So it made no sense. And we got more pragmatic.

Um, and the, and the other thing that, you know, it was the kind of the emotional piece of this was, you know, I sort of booted up, you know, pounding my fist on the table and saying 50 years later, we should do better than Concord. So we should be faster and dah, dah, dah, dah, dah, dah, and all these other things. Yeah. And the, the reality was that wasn't actually necessary. What we needed was a pragmatic starting point.

that we could then continue to iterate and innovate, you know, and overture is not the be all end all of supersonic airplanes. It's the version one. Yeah. And we can do a version 1.1 and we can do a version two. And the thing that matters is, um, uh, ensure ensuring that version one is sufficiently pragmatic that we can, we can birth it. Yeah. So how fast did Concorde go?

Uh, 2.0, actually 2.0, 2.02 actually is the precise number. And you've, you've made your peace with building a first plane that goes slower than the Concorde. Uh, I don't know. I guess officially we've made our peace with it. Not in your heart on the spreadsheet. Not in my heart. Like, cause you know, Mach 1.7 just doesn't roll off the tongue like Mach 2. Mach 2 sounds way cooler. Mach 2 sounds way cooler. You know, and for a while my license tag said Mach 2.2.

And I learned that I should really never put a technical design parameter on a vanity plate. That was a bad decision because it made it harder for me to admit the difficult truth. Every day when you went out and saw your car, you were getting mocked by your...

failure in relative terms. Yeah, M-A-C-H-E-D. Yes. Oh, very good. Very good. That should be your new vanity plate to keep you humble. No, now it just says supersonic because so long as I bust Mach 1, I'm good. Still to come on the show, how much more time and money will it take to build a supersonic plane that can carry paying passengers? Also, what might go wrong?

Are you a trailblazer? A risk taker? Someone with countless tales of epic adventure? Well, I'm not quite there yet, but I'm working on it. Even the boldest among us started off small, daring themselves to reach greater goals each day.

If you're looking to take on a challenge like that, the Defender is too. It's a vehicle built for drivers capable of great things, whether they're headed towards uncharted territory or just a weekend getaway. And this may meet other adventure seekers at Destination Defender. This incredible weekend festival in Port Jervis, New York, was created for those who embrace the impossible. It includes outdoor activities, live music, chef tastings, and more. The Defender is a vehicle that, like you, is capable of great things.

It was engineered to meet challenges head-on so you can explore with confidence. Created with durable, lightweight monocoque architecture for extra strength. Explore the full Defender lineup at LandRoverUSA.com. Have you ever gotten sick on a very expensive, very non-refundable family trip? Amazon One Medical has 24-7 virtual care, so you can get help no matter where you are. And with Amazon Pharmacy, your meds can get delivered right to your hotel, fast.

It's kind of like the room service of medical care. Thanks to Amazon, health care just got less painful.

Together, T-Mobile for Business and industry leaders are innovating with our advanced 5G solutions. For Walt Disney Studios, we transformed movie making by syncing teams in California with a remote production hub in Hawaii, enabling picture-perfect collaboration to help bring Lilo & Stitch to theaters this summer. For PGA of America, we deliver pro-level efficiency with connected security and ticketless entry for smoother operations, seamless transactions,

and better fan experiences from gate to green. And for tractor supply, we put 5G business internet to work across 2,200 stores, cultivating AI-driven customer experiences to keep things running seamlessly inside, curbside, and countryside. We're helping industries redefine what's possible because with a partner that's as committed to your business as you are, there are no limits.

Discover how our advanced 5G solutions can take your business further at T-Mobile.com slash now. So you're building the airliner. You're also sort of building the jets, right? I know you were working with Rolls-Royce and then, which makes a lot of jets for airplanes now, and then you stopped working with Rolls-Royce. Tell me about that.

What you've got to do, like what's the next big step in terms of the airplane, the jets? Like what do you got to do next and when do you? Yeah, so step one, scale up those jet engines. Step two, scale up the airplanes. Step three, put it all together, prove to ourselves and to our regulator and the public that it's safe and then go carry passengers. And so you mentioned the whole jet engine thing. Yeah, we actually, when I started, our plan was

to go build our own jet engines, just the same way SpaceX builds their own engines. And then we got distracted. I let us get distracted by this sort of sexy notion that we'd be able to take a Rolls-Royce engine and just modify it, working with Rolls-Royce. And that turned out to be just a terrible idea. Huh.

Most companies that build airplanes don't build their own jets, right? It's not a crazy idea to say we're going to build airplanes and we're going to let people who are really good at building jets build the jets. Yeah. So if you look back far enough in time, it turned out Boeing, United Airlines, and Pratt & Whitney, the jet engine company, were actually all the same company. Oh, did they?

They were vertically integrated from the airline through to the jet engine. Or I guess back then it wasn't jet engines, it was piston engines. But I think that was actually the natural state of the industry. And they got broken apart, not because they wanted to, but there was an airmail scandal in the early 1930s, the outcome of which was the government split them up. Oh.

Oh, interesting. An airmail scandal. You don't hear about so many airmail scandals anymore. There was the airmail scandal of 1932, where what was going on was basically the U.S. government was subsidizing airmail because they wanted to get off the ground. Yeah, so to speak.

Yeah. And, uh, it's, it's so the, the retail price of airmail was less than the airlines were getting paid. Yeah. Uh, and so the airlines found they could make more money by going to the post office and mailing bricks. Oh, I love that. That's, um, and so the, you know, and the, the postmaster general was corrupt. Like everybody was on the take, it was nasty. And then, and then the, the industry, you know, everybody was kind of at fault here and the industry took the blame. Yeah. Yeah.

And you're telling us why companies that make jets are different than the companies that make the airplanes they go on? It's a bold claim. Yeah.

vertical integration is smart versus working with suppliers. What was it? Jim Barksdale's line in the nineties, there's two businesses bundling and unbundling. It's like that. I hadn't heard that, but I think it's kind of true and it's contextual. Yeah. And the long story short, when the current state of the art technology is good enough for the end purpose,

the unbundling and not vertical integration tends to make sense. When the components need to advance and the integration and the final product is important, then vertical integration really matters. And so I think there are kind of two threads to the story. One is,

it's probably not a good idea for a brand new startup to put all of its eggs in the basket of a like hundred year old company that like is risk averse, doesn't want to make changes, isn't fast moving. Maybe, you know, isn't sure what it really wants to be. Right. So you're putting all of your eggs in your own basket, which is strong, certainly. So, so what, like what's the next step?

mile post you got to hit? Like what's the big, big next hurdle? We'll find, we'll find out around the end of this year, whether our jet engines working, uh, we're building the first one right now and we'll see if it works. And so this, this will be a very, very large, uh, jet engine core, you know, like it'll be roughly four feet in diameter. Uh, this is not a small piece of hardware, you know, away well over 10,000 pounds. This is a very complex piece of turbo machinery. Uh,

And we'll, we'll, we'll fire it up and we'll, we'll see what's, we'll see what's working. And then next, next year. So that's the core of the engine. And a year later, our goal is to have a, you know, a full up engine, not just the core, but the, the fan and the, what's called the low pressure system as well. Okay.

But the core is actually the really hard part. So we're starting with the hardest part. And then in parallel, you're building the plane or designing the plane? Yeah, we're actually done designing the plane. Okay. So we froze the design of the overture plane

I think a week after XB1's final flight. Okay. And so that means, you know, I proverbially broke the engineer's pencils. So just now, just in the last several weeks, you froze the design of the plane. You said, this is it. This is the plane we're going to build. This is it, right? You know, it's very easy for ambitious engineers to want to optimize forever. Sure. And we said, this is good enough for version one. It's time to stop tweaking the design and start doing the detailed engineering and

Um, so we can start building this thing. Tell me about what it's going to look like. So, uh, supersonic jets, um,

fit or in some ways sculpted by physics, they're going to be long and skinny. They're going to have a triangular kind of Delta wing. Um, so in a certain sense, overture is going to need to look Concord like, because physics says it needs to look Concord like, uh, but the details are the details that come so far forward. Uh, one of the, one of the big aerodynamic advances versus Concord is something called area ruling, which basically says the fuselage needs to be big in the front and small in the back. Um,

And, uh, and so Overture looks, it looks a little bit like a Concord and a 747 had a love child. Okay. Uh, so it's, it's, it's not literally double deck in the front, but it's bigger in the front and skinnier in the back. And, um, this leads for a very interesting canvas. Um, and I, I can't tell you yet what exactly it's like at the front of the airplane. Cause we've got, we've got something we invented that I'm incredibly excited about that we haven't revealed yet. Um,

Uh, but I think it's going to be, I think it's gonna be a big wow factor. Uh, people will look at them and say, wait a minute, you, you got that to fit in a skinny supersonic chat? An elephant. What is it? Um, uh, it is some, it is something that will be delightful for passengers. A waterfall. Um, uh, I'll stop guessing, uh, but I'm curious. So, um, it's, I'll tell you right now, it's not a hot tub. Okay. Um,

Cold plunge. Cold plunge is the new hot tub. That's right. There's a cold plunge in the front of the airplane and the hot tub in the back of the airplane. You can actually have both. So what do you got to do to get through the very non-trivial regulatory hurdles to get from drawing up a plane to a plane that the FAA and analogous regulators say, yes, this can fly with commercial passengers? Well, we just have to prove it's safe.

I mean, there's a lot in that just, right? There's a lot in that just. I mean, this will be one of the most complex safety-critical machines ever built. But all of the rules are published. So we know exactly what we have to go do. And the certification is just proving that we did it. And so that will involve about 5,000 hours of flight testing and many more hours of ground testing. And so just to give you a concrete sense of what this is like,

Uh, on the ground, you know, we will, we will build a, um, kind of a flightless bird, you know, a copy of the airplane that will never fly. Yeah. And we'll load up the wings with hydraulic presses and we'll bend them until they break and we'll make sure that they don't break before they're supposed to. Yeah. Basically you have to prove, uh,

that they can take 1.5 times the load they will ever see under the most extreme case before failing. That's one example you do on the ground. And then the air, you fly it through all the most extreme flight conditions. You make sure it can handle bad weather. You can make sure that it flies through a snowstorm. The de-icing can keep up with the icing. You shoot a chicken at the jet engines.

Uh, like, and make sure that when you, you know, if you get a bird strike that either the engine doesn't fail or it fails in a non-catastrophic way. Yeah. Uh, that, that's actually one of the most difficult tests. Uh, so, okay. So you got to do all these things. What is your current target date for when I can buy a ticket? About four years. Uh, so our, our goal is to be ready for passengers by the end of 2029. So about four, four and a half to five years from where we are today. Like,

Flying XB-1 took longer than you thought, but you're still assuming Overture is not going to take longer than you thought.

Setting them in parallel. I mean, it's totally possible Overture will be late. Yeah. I mean, the way these things go, it seems likely. Again, this is from ignorance, just looking at the nature of projects in many different companies in many different settings. Like, plainly, what you're trying to do is very hard. And plainly, you're only doing it because you have some amount of optimism, which is required to do the job, right? And so just from that very small amount of data, I infer, like, yeah, I mean, you're probably not going to overestimate how long it will take.

Yes. Yeah. It is highly unlikely we will get done sooner than we're targeting. You're not going to be done early. Right. Yes. But one of the lessons I've learned along the way is kind of how to think about schedules. And I think schedules are actually misnamed.

Because nothing ever goes according to plan. And it's not a schedule. It's actually a work plan. And the point of the work plan is to allow the team to respond intelligently the moment something doesn't go according to plan, which is basically every day. And so what we do is we build what's called a success-based team.

Okay.

Yeah. And when we find, oops, there's something we didn't know about or this was harder than we expected, then we react to it in the most efficient way possible. And that...

That's what actually results in the fastest possible delivery because nothing ever gets done faster than the amount of time you give it. Right. But we'll just take all the time they're allowed because they want to do the best job possible. Exactly. And the kind of people who come join a supersonic jet startup are incredibly ambitious and have very, very high standards.

So, you know, if I didn't say the design is frozen... It's a hard trade-off, right? It's a hard trade-off because, like, there's a million hard optimization problems that people are working on. And there's the kind of meta-optimization problem of how long do you spend on each thing? That's right. That's right. And there's, like, you know, when do you declare good enough? Yeah. Right? And that was... I mean, there are so many stories of...

Really, I think part of my role is help the team decide when's good enough and what things have to be in 1.0 versus what things we can save for 1.1. Right. And having good judgment about that makes it much easier to actually ship 1.0. Right. You don't need to build the most perfect supersonic jet ever. You just need to build one that is safe and reliable. That's right. So...

So let's talk about money. How much have you raised and how much do you need to get the first 1.0?

overture flying with passengers. So a thing I've come to believe is that one of the most important things in pulling this off is being incredibly efficient with capital. We've raised about $600 million. We've spent less than $500 million. And with that, we built and flew a supersonic jet with a human on board. We designed an airliner. We designed an engine. And we did all the other things a startup has to do over a decade.

So what does that mean going forward? We need less than a billion dollars of investor funding from where we are now to, to finish. Um, when you say investor funding, like, are you assuming more pre-orders or you think for less than a billion dollars, you can actually, or less than a billion dollars more, you can actually build a, build a plane that's going to take passengers across the ocean. Yeah. Part of it has been very smart with capital leverage, you know, you know, so for example, uh,

Uh, you know, we will be able to go use debt to buy capital equipment. Right. So, so like a lot of production equipment will be financed, um, without requiring, you know, equity investment from investors. Um, and, and we've, we've already been able to do some of that. So there's a lot smart financial engineering as part of the solution.

The other part of the solution is being incredibly efficient in execution. You know, I still tell that, by the way, this is in some ways the most difficult thing. Spending the money intelligently, basically. Yeah. Well, the way I frame it for our team internally, and we're just very open about this. I say our single biggest risk as a company is we don't get done for an obtainable amount of money. Yeah. Well, because the physics, we've known the physics for whatever, 50 years or more, right? Like,

Plainly, one can build a supersonic jet, but building it cheaply enough, in your case, to survive, right? And then in the long run to have it be commercially viable is the hard part, right? Yeah. So one half of this is how do we execute really efficiently? How do we have a small team of world-class engineers with incredibly good software tools? And we're using a lot of software and we're using some AI such that one engineer can do the work of 10.

And that allows us to be really efficient with our money. And we are just absolutely miserly about money on one hand. On the other hand, we need to have a capital structure that's very good for investors and that leverages non-dilutive financing sources, be it customer prepayments or plant and equipment debt or public support to kind of lever up those investor dollars to make the whole thing economically viable. What's public support mean? So we had a fantastic...

uh, package that we got from the state of North Carolina that funded the, the super factory, um, in Greensboro, uh, where the state of North Carolina so wanted boom to come and build the airplane there that just, just as they welcomed the Wright brothers a hundred years ago, they, they welcomed us. And, uh, and that, that basically paid for the entire, uh, site prep and build out of the, the super factory. Um, so that way, and we were incredibly grateful for that. And I, you know, I want to make sure we pay it forward, uh,

In North Carolina. I've I've heard you say on an interview you did in the last year or so that you underestimated how hard it was going to be to build the company, to build a supersonic jet. And I'm curious if you look forward now to going from here to, you know, having passengers on on a jet. Do you think you're underestimating how hard that's going to be?

I am sure there are problems that we will have that I don't know about today. Yeah. That's a different, I mean, it's a weird question because if you're underestimating it, then you would revise your estimation. It's like, why is the stock market wrong? But like, I don't know. I mean, maybe you have to underestimate it. Like, I don't know. You know, people always say, if I knew how hard it was going to be, I wouldn't have done it. And I don't know if they really mean that, but. I think some people mean it and it's real. And I find that really sad.

And I don't mean that in a sarcastic way. I mean, like actually, like, boy, like this startup stuff is so hard and it just kills me that someone would put in all of the effort required to birth a new company and a new product from scratch. And it is really hard. It's like chewing on glass. And then to do it for somebody, they're like, wow, I wish I hadn't. Like, that is really sad. And by the way, I have my chewing on glass days for sure. And I'm sure I'll have more. And the worst of it

The worst of it is when I look in the mirror and I'm not sure whether I'm up for the job. Yeah. I mean, I think like, boy, someone better than me could have done this, but I don't know if I can, you know, or I look at a problem we have and it's not, you know, and it's, it's very much my responsibility and my error. Like those are the hardest days. Um, and, and yet I care so darn much about this, that, that it's, it's worth that personal hell. Yeah.

To give it everything I've got. And I don't, I don't regret it. Even the days where I'm like, boy, I don't know whether we're going to get through this. Uh, and we, we've had a bunch of those days and I think I'd be foolish to think that we won't have them again. Why, why is supersonic flight your thing? Like, why is that what you have devoted your professional life to? One of the principles I have for myself now is I only want to work on things that

That might not happen if I didn't work on them. And if the world followed that, we'd have a lot less photo sharing apps and fewer AI companies, but maybe things like traffic would be solved. And for me specifically with supersonic flight, my kids had a grandfather who lived in Hong Kong, 18 hours from us in Denver, that they got to meet maybe three or four times their entire life. And so they never got to know him.

And I grew up with my grandfather 90 minutes away and I got to spend every weekend with him and I'm a different person because of that. And so I've had a lot of personal experiences that basically say, hey, speed's not about saving time or being really cool. Although it is about saving time and being really cool. Speed is about what you choose to do or not do. And there are all kinds of things in the world that don't happen because flights are too long. We'll be back in a minute with the lightning.

Are you a trailblazer? A risk taker? Someone with countless tales of epic adventure? Well, I'm not quite there yet, but I'm working on it. Even the boldest among us started off small, daring themselves to reach greater goals each day.

If you're looking to take on a challenge like that, the Defender is too. It's a vehicle built for drivers capable of great things, whether they're headed towards uncharted territory or just a weekend getaway. And this may meet other adventure seekers at Destination Defender. This incredible weekend festival in Port Jervis, New York, was created for those who embrace the impossible. It includes outdoor activities, live music, chef tastings, and more. The Defender is a vehicle that, like you, is capable of great things.

It was engineered to meet challenges head-on so you can explore with confidence. Created with durable, lightweight monocoque architecture for extra strength. Explore the full Defender lineup at LandRoverUSA.com. The last thing you want to do when you're sick is go to the pharmacy to pick up a prescription. Because then you're standing in a long line with a whole bunch of sick people. And everyone is sick of being sick around other people who are sick.

Amazon Pharmacy will deliver right to you, fast, so you can get meds without congregating among the contagious. Healthcare just got less painful. Amazon Pharmacy.

Together, T-Mobile for Business and industry leaders are innovating with our advanced 5G solutions. For Walt Disney Studios, we transformed movie making by syncing teams in California with a remote production hub in Hawaii, enabling picture-perfect collaboration to help bring Lilo & Stitch to theaters this summer. For PGA of America, we deliver pro-level efficiency with connected security and ticketless entry for smoother operations, seamless transactions,

and better fan experiences from gate to green. And for tractor supply, we put 5G business internet to work across 2,200 stores, cultivating AI-driven customer experiences to keep things running seamlessly inside, curbside, and countryside.

We're helping industries redefine what's possible because with a partner that's as committed to your business as you are, there are no limits. Discover how our advanced 5G solutions can take your business further at T-Mobile.com slash now. Okay, let's finish with the lightning round. And then before you started the company, you made a list of things you wanted to work on and you sort of rank ordered them and how happy it would make you to work on them. Obviously, Supersonic Jet was one, but what was two?

It fell off really quickly. But what was the distant second? Like I had a rental car company idea. Huh? Um, that would be like a, like your rental car picks you up like an Uber, then you get in and drive it. Like it's not like, I would love that product. I don't think it's a great business idea. Uh, what was the scariest part of getting your pilot's license? Uh,

Oh, I remember that very first moment of takeoff and what turned out to be Larry Ellison's old airplane. And there was this moment of like, holy crap, I'm scared because I got my life in my own hands. Yeah. It's like when you learn to drive a car. I remember that when I learned to drive a car. It's like, I could just swerve into the oncoming lane right now. Right. It felt really fragile. Like I've got my life in my own hands. But then there was the other side of that same coin, which is,

This is really cool. I've got my life in my own hands. Uh-huh. What was the scariest part of working with Jeff Bezos? Uh, Jeff was great to work with and I was incredibly privileged in my early twenties. I got to work on something he cared about. Uh-huh. Uh, and Jeff, um, one of, one of the, one of the best things about Jeff is he very fairly calls the balls from the strikes. Yeah. And he, um, and he rewards, uh,

honesty and accountability. So I remember at one point, um, this was actually my very first time presenting to him. And if the presentation is overall going well, um, this is before he banned PowerPoint and I get to some slide and he says, well, why didn't you do X? And, uh, X was actually a pretty good idea. Yeah. And I said, well, we didn't think of that.

And he starts laughing that like famous big Jeff Bezos laugh. And he says, that's a great answer. It's true all the time, but no one will ever say it. He understands that anybody sufficiently ambitious is going to make mistakes. And what matters is to own them and learn from them. And he always rewarded that. And that's something I try to emulate myself as a leader. Okay. Briefly, let's do a few overrated or underrated questions for Jet Travel. Checking luggage, overrated or underrated?

Underrated. The way this should work is you take your Uber to the airport. Someone grabs your bag from the trunk. You go through the airport only with what you actually want with you on the airplane. When you arrive on the other side, you go to your Uber and your check bag is already in your trunk. That's a compelling dream. Overrated or underrated, the window seat? I think it's highly rated and underrated. Like I am glued to that window.

I love highly rated but still underrated things, so I feel about Bob Dylan. Neck pillows, overrated or underrated? It's not for me. Overrated. Same. Blake Scholl is the founder and CEO of Boom Supersonic. Today's show was produced by Gabriel Hunter-Chang. It was edited by Lydia Jean Cott and engineered by Sarah Brugier. You can email us at problem at pushkin.fm. I'm Jacob Goldstein, and we'll be back next week with another episode of What's Your Problem?

Do you know who wrote "All of Me" by John Legend? Or "If I Were a Boy" by Beyonce? Or "Big Girl's Song Cry" by Fergie? That's me, Toby Gadd. I'm a songwriter and I have a brand new podcast called "Songs You Know" with Grammy-winning guests like Hosea producer Jeff Giddey, Charli XCX producer John Schaaf, Rihanna and Coldplay producer Stargate, and artists like Jessie J, Josh Groban, and Victoria Justice. We're talking about their lives, their songs, their advice, their tips and tricks, and their most embarrassing moments.

So please tune in at Songs You Know podcast with Toby Gadd. Elon Musk, Doge and Donald Trump are weaving a web of technological corruption. Suddenly the eyes of the industry are open to things that had been obvious to lots of other people for months. Isn't it a conflict of interest that the president of the United States who regulates crypto has his own coin? I'm Lizzie O'Leary, the host of What Next TBD, Slate's podcast about tech, power and the future.

What Next TBD covers the latest on how Silicon Valley is changing our government and our lives. Listen wherever you get your podcasts.