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cover of episode Israel weighs hostage lives against Hamas destruction

Israel weighs hostage lives against Hamas destruction

2025/1/6
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Alex Dibble
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Gabrielle Weinecker
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Gabrielle Weinecker: 以色列与哈马斯之间的停火谈判进展缓慢且充满不确定性。达成协议的可能性较低,主要障碍在于双方缺乏信任,信息不对称,以及以色列尚未就加沙地带的未来统治提出明确的替代方案。以色列政府内部也存在分歧,右翼派系反对与哈马斯进行任何交易,这使得内塔尼亚胡在人质问题上左右为难。部分人质家属也反对与哈马斯谈判,他们认为继续对哈马斯施加军事压力是找回人质的最佳途径。 尽管如此,以色列也并非完全没有妥协的余地。如果哈马斯能够提供一个合理的协议,例如在停火协议的第一阶段释放所有被俘人质,并给予以色列在加沙地带一定的控制权,那么以色列政府还是有可能接受的。 美国政府也积极推动双方达成协议,但内塔尼亚胡可能更倾向于等待特朗普上任后再做决定,届时美国政府可能会采取更强硬的立场,对哈马斯施加更大的压力。 Alex Dibble: 就人质营救问题,以色列政府面临两难选择:一方面,尽快营救人质是政府的责任;另一方面,如果大部分人质已经遇难,那么继续打击哈马斯而不是进行停火谈判,从长期来看,可能是损害较小的解决方案。这涉及到在战争中领导者必须做出的艰难抉择,即选择哪种方案能够减少更多的人员伤亡。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What is the current status of the hostage negotiations between Israel and Hamas?

Hamas claims to have agreed to release a specific list of 34 Israeli hostages, with talks mediated by Qatar in Doha. However, Israel denies receiving the list. There is significant mistrust between the parties, and previous attempts at negotiations have not resulted in a deal. Israel insists on a three-stage ceasefire, while Hamas demands guarantees that Israel will not restart the war after each stage.

Why is there a lack of trust between Israel and Hamas in the negotiations?

The lack of trust stems from indirect talks mediated by the US, Egypt, and Qatar, with no direct communication between Israel and Hamas. Hamas doubts Israel's commitment to a full ceasefire, as Israel aims to dismantle Hamas and control the Gaza Strip. Israel, on the other hand, fears that releasing high-profile prisoners could lead to future attacks, as seen with Yahya Sinwar, who was released in a 2011 deal and later orchestrated the October 7th massacre.

What are the main obstacles to reaching a ceasefire agreement?

Key obstacles include disagreements over which prisoners will be exchanged, the stages of the ceasefire, and Hamas's demand for guarantees that Israel will not resume hostilities after each stage. Additionally, Israel has not yet received a confirmed list of hostages, and intelligence estimates suggest many of the remaining hostages may already be dead. The absence of a political plan for Gaza's governance post-Hamas further complicates negotiations.

How do Israeli families of hostages feel about the government's handling of the negotiations?

Many families feel the government is providing mere lip service and not prioritizing the safe return of their loved ones. Some, like the father of hostage Liri Albag, who is a former Likud voter, express anger and frustration, accusing the government of failing to protect its citizens. Others, like the father of Eitan Moore, oppose a hostage deal, believing military pressure on Hamas is the best way to secure their release.

What role does the US play in the ceasefire negotiations?

The US, along with Egypt and Qatar, acts as a mediator in the indirect talks between Israel and Hamas. The Biden administration has been pushing for a deal, but there is speculation that Israel may prefer to wait for Donald Trump's inauguration, expecting a more hardline approach. The US also has a vested interest as some of the hostages are joint US-Israeli citizens.

What are Israel's long-term objectives in Gaza?

Israel's primary objective is to dismantle Hamas as a terrorist organization and gain control over the Gaza Strip. However, there is no clear political plan for who will govern Gaza post-Hamas. The Biden administration has suggested the Palestinian Authority, but Israel opposes this, and the Palestinian Authority itself is reluctant, citing its fragility and corruption.

How does the internal political dynamic in Israel affect the hostage negotiations?

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces pressure from hard-right factions in his coalition, such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, who oppose releasing high-profile prisoners in exchange for hostages. These factions threaten to leave the government if a deal is made, which could cost Netanyahu his position. This internal tension limits Netanyahu's ability to negotiate effectively.

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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Alex Dibble and Toby Gillis. A potentially significant development in the push for a ceasefire in Gaza in the final fortnight of Joe Biden's presidency.

Hamas says it has agreed to release a specific list of 34 of the remaining Israeli hostages, with talks mediated by Qatar ongoing in Doha. Israel denies having received the list. It comes shortly after Hamas released a video showing a 19-year-old hostage, Liri Albag, crying and referencing New Year, although it's not clear if it was actually filmed recently or not.

It's led to more pressure by protesters in Israel who want the government to agree to a deal. The Times' Israel correspondent Gabrielle Weinecker is our guest today. Gabrielle, let's start with the potential end of these talks, shall we? How confident are you that this round will result in a ceasefire?

I am very cautious to give false hope to the families of the hostages. There are 100 hostages held in Gaza right now. And I don't want to be the person to say it's going to happen this time. The last time we saw a hostage deal was over a year ago. And since then, there have been messages from all sides saying there's been progress, this is happening now.

An Israeli delegation is heading to Doha. An Israeli delegation is heading to Egypt. Hamas have agreed to this. They're more flexible. And in the end, we haven't seen any results from all of these

And I think it would be unwise to say that this time is going to be different. There are still many, many gaps in their efforts to come to a deal, including which prisoners are going to be exchanged for the 100 hostages, the stages of the ceasefire. Israel is saying this is going to be done in three stages. Hamas wants guarantees that these stages are going to happen and Israel isn't just going to...

restart the war as soon as one of the stages is up and they've got back their hostages. Israel said that they haven't yet received a list of the hostages they're going to get back. We know out of the hundred that many of them, intelligence estimates are saying, are unfortunately dead. We don't know who they are. The families don't know who they are. There's just so much unknown. And I think it would be really unwise to say this time it's going to happen. In fact, I would err on the side of caution and say it's probably not going to happen.

That mistrust that you speak about there, I assume that is a major barrier here. I mean, Hamas has always said no permanent ceasefire, no hostages, haven't they? You're not getting a sense that they're prepared to back down from that.

I don't think so. I think you hit the nail on the head there when you say lack of trust. These are indirect talks. Hamas and Israel are in no way having any conversation whatsoever. All done through mediators, through the US, through Egypt and through Qatar. There is no trust on Hamas's side that Israel will...

make a full and complete ceasefire because Hamas knows that Israel wants control of the Gaza Strip and there is no alternative at the moment. There's no political plan for who's going to rule the Gaza Strip once Hamas are dismantled. And Israel has stated again and again, and this is the military objective as well for their campaign in Gaza, that they will completely dismantle Hamas's terror organization and Hamas as a whole. Hamas is still quite active in the Gaza Strip and Israel is continuing to fight. So until...

that bridge has been crossed. I don't see how there can be any solution whatsoever until Israel comes up with a way of saying, we are confident that so-and-so is going to rule the Gaza Strip and haven't put in any alternative here. The Biden administration has been pushing for the Palestinian Authority to rule the Gaza Strip. The Palestinian Authority has

haven't said that that's something they want to do. The Palestinian people in the West Bank, where the Palestinian Authority rules, largely, not completely, say that this authority is very corrupt and fragile and incapable of ruling the Gaza Strip. And

Not only that, but Israel's point blank said that they don't want the Palestinian Authority to rule the Gaza Strip, but again, haven't offered any alternatives. So this status quo, a checkmate in a way, is going to continue until there is a plan on the table.

Now, Gabrielle, your piece about this focuses on one specific hostage, Lirri Albag. I must say, as I read it, I sort of got this sense that maybe there's a feeling among the families that their government's involvement in negotiations is, I don't know, mere lip service, that maybe there's less desire within government, almost unsaid, to get the hostages out than there would be within the general population. Is that fair? Yeah.

I don't know how unsaid it even is. You have members of the government in the hard right side of the coalition. I'm talking about Itamar Bengvir, I'm talking about Bezalel Smotrich and the defence ministry and the finance ministry openly saying that they don't want a deal with Hamas. Now their line is that they don't want to release high profile prisoners in exchange for these hostages, essentially banning

bringing a new leader to the Gaza Strip. Yahya Sinwa, we have to remember, was released in a 2011 hostage deal and he went on to commit this massacre against the Israeli people on October 7th. He was the mastermind for that and he was a released prisoner. So their argument is if there is a deal, they will leave the government and therefore Netanyahu will lose his position as Prime Minister.

So he's being pulled along by, or he's in a way being held hostage by his right-wing factions in his government. And you mentioned Louis Albag. Her father is a former Likud voter. That means that he voted for the ruling party that Netanyahu is part of. Even he, or especially he, with his daughter being in captivity for over a year now, is saying that, I voted for Netanyahu and you're doing nothing to bring back my child. I think there is a lot of anger among the families that

what you call lip service, they would agree with that. They're saying that there has been no progress. Why have citizens who have been kidnapped from their beds not been safely returned home? What is the point of having a state who's going to protect its citizens, who are going to vote for this kind of government, not have them protect their own people?

This is a tough question to ask because we are dealing with people's lives. But in war, leaders have to make decisions all the time that effectively answer the question, what kills fewer people? Is there not a case to say that those on the rise of the cabinet you mentioned, that they are correct? That if many of the remaining hostages are already dead...

then the less damaging solution long term is just to keep damaging Hamas rather than to negotiate a ceasefire.

There are some parents of hostages, and we have written about that before, the hostage Etan Moore, who was a security guard at the Nova Festival where over 300 revelers were killed in that massacre. His father is staunchly against a hostage deal, and he's not one of the families who goes down to Tel Aviv to Democracy Square and protests to bring the hostages home. He says quite strongly that we need to

Israel needs to keep fighting in Gaza. And that is the way to get the hostages back. And again, that is also the military line for what they are doing in the Gaza Strip. They're saying military pressure on Hamas will make them cave and bring back the hostages. I think we have to define what we expect from a state to keep its citizens safe.

And the majority of people who are not staunchly right wing and they're not advocates of war, because most people want to live in peacetime, would want to see their government act for their people. And we've heard incoming president, U.S. President Donald Trump saying he will now do anything to get

hostages back. Anyone who is being held outside of America under duress will be returned home and that's going to be a big policy of his. That might also change the dealings of the ceasefire as well because there are joint US-Israeli citizens being held currently in Gaza. So I

I think it depends on what your expectations are for a state to protect its citizens. But again, yeah, you're right. It's important to remember that these people, and Eitan Moore's father is from Hebron, which is in the West Bank. And Eitan Mar-Ben-Gur, for example, is from the same settlement that this father is from. This is a kind of, I want to say, a kind of sect of people, class of people who believe in fighting for peace.

And Gabrielle, you mentioned Donald Trump there. Clearly, Joe Biden's team are looking to have this done before Trump is inaugurated. Is this a political move then or one, as you put it, that is simply an administration doing its best for its people?

I think Joe Biden would love to see hostages returned home under his term. It's been very important for him and he has been pushing for Netanyahu to agree to a deal. But I think that Netanyahu would rather wait for Donald Trump and for a more hardline effort to bring the hostages back and put more pressure on Hamas. At the moment, there isn't so much pressure on Netanyahu. There's no carrot and stick. That being said, you ask if it's political. I think Israel...

is open to agreeing to a good deal, which would mean low profile prisoners, hostages all back in the first stage of the ceasefire agreement, control over the Philadelphia corridor, which is between Egypt and Israel and the Netzerine corridor, which is in the middle of the Gaza Strip, which kind of splits the north and the south and gives the Israeli military kind of full control over the north and south. So

Israel would agree to a good deal. But as it stands, Hamas still have these trump cards. They still have the hostages. OK, Gabrielle Weinecker, Times Israel correspondent. Thank you very much for joining us. And thank you for spending 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. We'll see you tomorrow.

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