Mike Noble on the Future of Arizona Politics
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Welcome to Broken Potholes. I'm your host, Sam Stone. My co-host, Chuck Warren, in the studio with us today. Mike Noble, OH Predictive. Thank you so much for having me. The preeminent pollster in the state of Arizona.

He is a preeminent pollster, and also they do your polling results on ABC 15. Is that correct still? Correct. Yep. Well, ABC 15, I think last week, twice in New York Times, but there's basically the place we haven't published. Let's start with this real quick. How do you like working with a local news station on polling? How is it different than a regular client?

You know, it's interesting. When dealing with local news, I've found is that compared to maybe some of the national outlets, I've seen that, you know, they're very more focused on local news centered, but also they're usually not trying to pick favorites as much. But I have noticed, I think, in the last few years, the trends, you know, like it or not, it's just the way it is, is that I'll put out something that say, you know, the numbers are what they are. However, you know, maybe good for the red team or Republicans, maybe good for the blue team, Democrats. However, you know,

When I put up one that's good for the blue team, you see a lot of the left-leaning outlets like Washington Post, New York Times publish it. And again, it's great content, but then you see the folks on the right not doing it, then vice versa, shoes on the other foot with another release. You see Newsmax and others publish it. And it's an interesting trend that I've seen, at least the difference between local and national.

People really only want the news that backs up their point of view. I mean, from the stations down to the viewers, that's what we're getting more and more of. Well, the election integrity issue is example A of that right now, right? There's some very valid points, but there's a lot of non-valid points. Right. So therefore, we go and have this horrible...

divisive situation that's not really focusing on issues. It's sort of how Democrats are focusing on Liz Cheney, but let's ignore the fact there's a dozen Democrat House members that think Hamas should be able to blow up Israel. It's interesting when you talk about the numbers there is that, especially when you're talking about the election integrity, because there's basically two themes that are going on. One that there was rampant fraud and that the election was stolen from Trump, and the other one was that, hey, there might have been some, I think it was a

100% perfect, but again, a difference between rampant fraud and, again, an accurate election are two different things. And then when you look at the Arizona voters, for example, you'd see only about 5% think the narrative that the election was stolen is the case. And then you only have about 20% of independents. But where it mainly drives from is about 54% of registered Republicans. So overall, and then when talking about this issue as kind of a brand issue,

issue for the GOP because as they're further along this audit that I think we can all agree part, you know, partisan views aside is that it is run very unprofessionally and there's just a lot of red flags. I don't think it's a true audit in a sense in the team that's doing it is probably way over their head. But as that continues as a Republican Party, as a brand,

I have seen in my polling that it's actually increased a little bit among Republicans there. The theme that, you know, the election was stolen and pushing now the independents either farther away. But we see it across the country, whether you're looking in Nebraska, you're looking nationally. It's roughly about half a register. Republicans do believe that narrative, which up until this point, the judges everywhere else haven't seen definitively that again. And deeply.

And deeply, right? There's no fuzzy, I sort of believe this. It's either you're there or you're not. And having that conversation...

With somebody, well, this is no different than having a conversation for the 82% of Democrats in 2000 thought the election was stolen or the 71% of Democrats in 2016 who believe Trump stole the election. Now it's all reversed and trying to talk to either party, whether it was Democrats, Republicans, explain why.

it's not stolen. It's like talking to a wall. 100%. As a matter of fact, the wall is probably more receptive. Correct. Absolutely right. You're 100% spot on there, Chuck, because when you look at, though, I try to liken it and digest it because polling politics can be a little complicated for some folks. So how can you kind of translate it as something they get? Think of it as your favorite team is in the Super Bowl against another team. They're down at halftime. They didn't think they had a chance to win, which was Trump's scenario. Thought it was going to get blown out. And

He came back like Seabiscuit and got much closer than thought. But again, just came fall short. It's like your team, you know, down at halftime. They're down. They start surging back. But guess what? They're down the one yard line and they forget to look at the clock. Game's over and you lose by just that much. Right. And that's essentially what happened in this election. But at the end of the day,

It is what it is. And you have another game or match that's going to be played on. And I think that's pretty much the scenario. But again, they just don't want to accept that. Again, in elections we've had, we've had tons of elections since America has been founded. And think about it. How many has there been two winners? Right. Well, one wins, one loses. I think, Mike, that goes a lot to the point you were talking about earlier about who distributes your polling when it possesses messaging that's strong for the left or strong for the right.

We have never had elections before where people did not receive the same news. I mean, that is a really new phenomenon. Could you imagine this happening in 1960 with Kennedy and Nixon? No. And for those of you illiterate on history, look that up sometime. That's that. I mean, literally.

Almost on a bipartisan basis, people believe that Johnson stole that election for Kennedy. Yeah. I mean, and you had in Texas, they're very certain of it and quite proud. As a matter of fact, I wonder and want to redo it. They want to redo. When I was in Austin, the folks at KLBJ radio were very clear that that had absolutely happened. And it was one of the proudest moments in Austin's history.

Mike, thanks for joining us today with Mike Noble, infamous poster here in Phoenix Metro and elsewhere, building his outreach to other Southwest states. How did you get involved in this project?

It's an interesting business. Not only are you providing data, but you sort of become a mini-celebrity in a lot of ways, right? You have to. I have essentially become what I never thought or never aspired to be whatsoever, which was basically like an elected official is probably the best way to liken the type of work and everything else is because I started out my career after graduating from Arizona State University, but I was from Wisconsin originally. But I

I love Arizona, and Arizona State forks up. No pity for the kitty, as we say. My wife, though, is an Arizona native, but also U of A, so she's house divided. Oh, wow. That's tough. Folks, I've got to cut him off because we're going to bear down and throw this guy out of the studio when we go to break here. Sam, I was really starting to like you there for a minute.

No, and so it's interesting. So I came up, worked in politics, and, you know, like everybody, a lot of folks that started working on campaigns, managing races, running Senate races and congressional races. And so you're doing all the groundwork until you can do the job to promote yourself out of it. And I became a full-blown general consultant, which I thought is the top of the mountain in campaign.

campaigns. However, what happened was is that I did it for three, four years and it was fine. It just it wasn't really for me because, again, it takes a special person, I think, a very unique and again, just didn't fit me. And for I saw in the public opinion space,

My issue was with polling was that I felt like a lot of people would hand numbers to them, but they weren't really crossing the divide from, okay, here's this polling for this decision maker, consultant, et cetera. But again, applying that and kind of crossing that bridge from data to reality because, okay, the data says this, but there's also a lot of

context that comes along with it. And so that was really for, you know, tailoring data to decision makers, but also putting data readily out there because Arizona basically doesn't have a, you know, a top notch data

public opinion and full blown research company they basically have to use out of staters and I truly believe Arizona is you know the state's barely 100 years old it's very much the wild west I like to liken it to and it's a great place for opportunity but for us Arizonans I think that we deserve not only a top notch

polling company, but I think a nationally top-notch, you know, if Gallup can come out of New Mexico, guess what? I have a strong suspicion that, you know, we as Arizonans can show folks that, again, how to do things. But Arizona might be the most interesting state in the union for the next decade or more when it comes to politics, because it's entirely possible the next few presidential elections will all be decided right here. It's truly a wildcard state.

And Arizonans like to take on the persona that I'm this maverick. I'm this rebel. I may have a cause. I may not. I mean, for example, go to Scottsdale, one of the wealthiest zip codes in the country.

And they're still selling that cowboy crap all the time. There's no one in Scottsdale except some 20-something women who wear cowboy boots and skirts at the bars on the weekend who is actually a cowboy, right? I mean, that disappeared like 40 years ago, right? But we have a segment of our population like, we're cowboys. There's nothing to cowboy about you. But let me tell you, Chuck, if you can throw your Stetson down, put your boots up on the chair next to you, and drop the keys to the Mercedes on the bar...

You're going to do really well tonight in Scottsdale. Mike, we want to talk more, and we'll get into this next segment, just about what attitudes are changing, how Utah's really not – I mean, not Utah, sorry. Arizona's not as blue as people think, especially on some very fundamental issues. But what – how – as you poll, you're obviously talking to human beings, right? Yeah. I hope so. Have they become angrier? Yeah.

You know, it's interesting. So there's a couple of things that happen. One is that typically when you have, you know, trying to sample your population, typically, let's say you have a list of, you're trying to sample, for example, registered voters, right? Okay, I want to go get this population. Well, best way to start, you get the voter rolls from the state of Arizona. Because, again, are you a voter or not? Because there can be, hey, are you a voter? Yes. And actually, they've never registered. They thought.

they did and they don't want to admit they're not a voter right correct correct so you have those nuances so what are ways around it make sure you have the right audience so okay i have my target universe and then you go and take that list and you randomize it which is key because by randomizing again you give everyone an equal chance to participate in the survey and so when you go and do that and then you double verify but when calling them is that hey

are you registered to vote? Are you, or you say you are, and that's the case, you're able to double verify like, yes, I have my person. And if you do that correctly, you're great. But also I would say that the issues is that you have some people losing trust, whether they're in some of the institutions. And so they're opting out of not taking it. So you have, we're having to do more innovative net,

methods of more archaic methods actually of like direct mail and other type of things even door-to-door canvassing to be able to get to those hard to reach populations because if you're not able to get to a certain segment that maybe has a big distrust in public opinion polling ultimately you can see issues and right now like Pew Research public opinion like response rates of polling are at an all-time low it's like four or five percent yes of folks that hey you want to take a survey to have your input where many of these major decisions are made and they're like

nope, nope, don't have time or not answering. And so, again, there are some challenges there. But have you found those of the Democrat persuasion or liberal are more apt to respond than conservatives because conservatives are just so distressful now of media? 100%. So essentially what we've seen is that

So when you look at, you know, especially this year, we had a hundred year pandemic. I don't know about you. I wasn't around a hundred years ago. So new for me. And so with this hundred year pandemic and then all of us working remotely. So you have all these folks now working from home. They also have a lot of time, but also not getting that social interaction they usually had. So.

Again, you're sitting there, oh my gosh, a person, you may talk to them a lot more than you would have. And we saw response rates really increase among folks on the left who were really, I guess, seeing red, for lack of a better term, when Trump. So, hey, do you want to take a survey? Heck yeah, I do. And then on the other side, the conservatives, they would say, you know, it's BS. Mike, we got to cut you off real quick. We're going to break. When we come right back, Broken Potholes, Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights in the studio.

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Welcome back to Broken Potholes with your hosts Sam Stone and Chuck Warren in the studio with us today. Mike Noble, OH Predictive, and of course coming up the sunshine moment with the irrepressible Kylie Kipper. She always grimaces when I call her that, but I'm going to keep doing it. Does she know what the word means? But we can talk about that later. All right, let's go. You know, Mike, one of the things we're hearing a lot out there is that people are not being honest with pollsters anymore.

I've heard you say that's not actually the case, that it's just becoming more and more difficult to get a representative sampling. But I do think there's a lot of Republicans in particular, a lot of conservatives who are really afraid to tell anybody the truth about what they believe in. I mean, their best friends.

They're afraid to tell their best friends, much less a stranger who's calling them on the phone. That's a good point. And we saw that, you know, and like you said, the data didn't really say the lying aspect. I think what it was is, again, non-response rate. Again, people opting out of taking the poll. So it just...

It makes it more difficult on our end. But also, we just have to adapt to-- again, we just have to maybe call through more, but also be able to cut off once we have so many of, let's say, liberal Democrats that have answered, being able to cut that off a little bit to, again, get more to balance out the sample.

But when basically we're looking at the polling right now is that, you know, I can't speak for others. But this past election, I was five for five. Perfect record. Can't speak for folks in like Florida, for example. However, you know, us here in Arizona, we absolutely crush it. And again, it's a different there's a lot of proliferation. I think there's a lot of polling that was put out there that basically probably wasn't

up to standard. However, it made for a really good headline. And so media ran with it and ultimately put a little bit of a black eye on the industry as a whole. However, I think it comes down to trust into it. And again, you know, we don't share anyone that responds to the survey. It's completely confidential. I have no idea. The folks, I never even bothered to look or anything like that. Again, they're essentially numbers on a spreadsheet. Again, we're looking at demographic and other information. So it's just, again, I think it's more the

Again, their reputation, I think you don't let a few bad apples. You just got to control yourself and let your record prove it and build that trust. You've had a really good record the last couple elections here in Arizona. There are other firms that have really good records, but they tend to be focused, I think, more on their local areas.

it's tough because you're right because when you're going and pulling uh different states and we see it with out-of-state pollsters they'll come in and let's say a big outfit like nbc news and whoever they partner with come in and pull arizona and the thing is for the vast majority there's just a lot of nuances to a given state of you know whether you know the size of your how you're breaking out your demographic regions to your size and your sampling and turnout trends everything else there's just a lot of context because when you're looking at previous elections

Where the numbers are moving and why. What's driving higher turnout? Was it the candidate on the ballot or why did someone underperform? Was it actually because of lower vote turnout or did the candidate really mess up a month before Election Day and ultimately tanked his vote? So there's just a lot of context that goes into it. I think the better you know, not just the data itself, but also, you know, just ask Nate Silver. If it was just based off the data, he would have been perfect each time. But I think his track record hasn't been too great. No. Let's talk about COVID.

Every state's been highly affected by it. Sam and I have talked about this on the show. The partisan divide has really showed up on COVID. I can tell you what someone 999 times out of 1,000, where they are politically based on their response to COVID. And you have one side, we will call them the left, and they are simply, I have to have 100% guarantee. We're all going to die.

And then you had the Republicans, they're all SOBs, I don't trust any of them, this is the flu, right? And then I think you have, probably you and I and Sam is,

No, this is not the worst pandemic that's hit the world. Yes, this is a little worse than the flu. Be precaution, but we should keep things open and get moving on with life. If you see someone driving— And we're a unique minority. Right. I mean, we're a unique minority, right? And that's what's weird about it. So has that come across the point? Is that a fair description of what I've given the landscape of the partisan divide on COVID? Yeah.

100%, yeah, because it was actually one of the key insights from the last election. And we actually, one of the few that, right when COVID made landfall here in April, and we actually started tracking it then, and one of the questions was, hey, do you think things are going to get better or worse when it comes to the spread of COVID? Because the uniqueness about COVID was not so much the deadliness of it, it was really about how...

rampantly it spreads. Transmissibility. Yeah, the transmissibility. And so it was interesting when doing it is that when we're seeing it on TV in Italy with the opera guy going and in New York is that levels are really low. Concern levels all across the board. However, once it made landfall in Arizona, you saw it skyrocket up on all ends. The thing is, though, as we tracked it month over month is that

What you saw is that COVID absolutely turned into a political football. You had eight out of 10 Democrats saying extremely or moderately concerned about it compared to Republicans. Only about 25 percent of them compared to independents right about near the middle between the two, about 60 percent. And it's through the time because you saw COVID, there would be spikes of it and then it come down. With Republicans, their concern would go up when we're

hitting the big wave like oh i don't like this ride and they'd come over the hill and they'd be like oh we're good and they'd revert back to where they were but democrats through the entirety stayed at 80 percent no matter what happened or changed an independence call in the middle but we saw for the first time actually in our most recent polling democrats actually dropped to the low 60s for the first time but the thing is what's unique is for an issue covet is like the honey badger it does not care about your political party your your ethnicity income whatever uh

COVID don't care. But however, when you look at the parties, it's clear as day, it absolutely got turned into a political football. And that's what we're seeing in this hyper-partisan politics is that ultimately it's affecting economic numbers. It's affecting, again, opinions on something that all of us should be on the same board on. So again, it's some of the interesting things. It is. I mean, a perfect example of the division is

especially how it's represented in national media. Think about what's happening with the colonial pipeline. Right. And...

If Donald Trump had been on TV yesterday and said it came from Russia, but we know it's not the Russian government. He would have been lit on fire and burned to the ground. It would have been horrible. And I'm not even dismissing that they know it came from there. You know, let's give the benefit of the doubt. But I don't think any of us believe that the Russian government didn't know this was happening.

But if Donald Trump had done that, they would lit things up. So now you have Republicans yelling about it. Democrats are like, no, no, no, no. But if it had been reversed, Republicans have been defending Trump for saying it. And Democrats are saying, I told you they bought him. He's a puppet. And so how do we go – and we'll go into this in the next segment because we're going to take a quick commercial break here, Mike. But –

When you come back, let's discuss what is there we can bridge on? What is there a bridge we can go and communicate with each other on? You know, I think, Chuck, real quick, I think one of the things that we touched on, the difference in the news people see. And I really think one of the reasons that Republicans spiked and dipped with the spikes and dipped in COVID is Democrats live in –

frankly, live in more of a bubble than Republicans. If you're a conservative, you can't help but get hit with the left-leaning news because it's your local newspaper. It's your local TV stations. It's not just whether you're watching Fox or CNN. So you can't help but learn what they're seeing on the left. But if you're on the left and you're not tuning into explicitly conservative media, you never hear that counterpoint. Wow.

Well, I think, and we'll dive deeper into it, I think basically what ultimately I think the issue is, think of these companies. They're all for-profit companies. They have stakeholders. They're not supposed to make money. Correct. And so we're seeing a stronger and stronger correlation now. It's something I've been focusing more of my research efforts on is asking people where they get their

news sources from. So we see a huge disparity like Senator Sinema and Kelly, both Democrats. However, you see that with Mark Kelly, based on that minimum wage vote they did recently, that there was an issue that, again, Fox News folks had less of an opinion compared to MSNBC, CNN. And this message to stay home, sponsored by Amazon.com and our multiple delivery services for everything you need. Broken potholes will be coming right back in a moment.

It's the new year and time for the new you. You've thought about running for political office but don't know where to start. Before you start any planning, you need to secure your name online with a yourname.vote web domain. This means your constituents will know they are learning about the real you when they surf the web. Secure your domain from godaddy.com today. The other night, dear, as I lay sleeping

Well, folks, it's been a while, but the sunshine moment is back. Bringing some good news. Never hear that on talk radio. Not too often. Pretty much don't get that anywhere on the internet these days. No.

And here we have Kylie Kipper with the sunshine moment. Well, luckily for everyone that's listening, Rob Kenny is on the internet. He has his own YouTube channel. And who he is, is he is a man that has a YouTube channel called Dad, How Do I? And he basically teaches, his dad left him when he was 14 years old, him and his seven siblings. And he teaches everyone how to do basic life skills. So how to change a tire, how to tie your tie, how to do everything that he wishes his dad would have taught him.

And so he started this in April of 2020. So I'm assuming from COVID, he found some free time and decided that he was just going to see what happens. Now he has millions of YouTube followers and 5 million views on each video. He's writing a book. I believe it's released May 18th. And I just love this message because, you know, you teach a man to fish and you feed him for life. Oh.

Oh, my goodness. She just throws it out there, doesn't she? Everybody's feeling zen in the studio today. Wait a minute, though. I thought the answer to that was call AAA and get a clip on it. Well, you know, I've been on a lot of shows, and I'll be honest, I think that was probably one of the coolest things I've heard in some time. So this Kylie Kipper, she's okay in my book. By the way, you need to get him on the show.

So I'm giving you that assignment now so we can do a more long range interview with him. But how have you when you went through and looked at this, what are people saying about this? Obviously, he has a lot of viewers, but are people just saying thanks and this is helpful or. Yeah. So a lot of people are actually tweeting about it when it first came out because he gained probably a million of his followers within the first month of this being released. And it's from people who also don't have fathers that had taught them or parents.

That they just resonate with his story. And so they're very thankful that he has videos on anything, how to unclog your toilet, you know, like just things that everyone needs to know. So yeah.

I could have used them last night trying to hang up a new painting I got. That was like dumb and dumber trying to get that done. Mike, what percentage of Arizonans are from single-parent households? Percentage-wise? I'd have to have my census numbers in front of me. I look at a lot of data all the time. What's your guess, though? Single-parent? I can't even...

I don't, I can't, I don't have an environment. I can get you the answer. I'm not sure, but if I remember right, the numbers in the thirties, it's in the mid high thirties. Yeah. I've again, I haven't looked at it lately. We do a lot of research. Look, there's, there's a lot of great single parents out there doing a fantastic job, but that is, that's just a brutal start to life. Not having that dual combination being involved and active. And, um, well,

Well, I can relate because my mom, that's actually what brought me to Arizona. I actually would have been in Wisconsin. Typically, the trajectory is you get born, you have family, then you go away in Wisconsin. But the reason my brother and I found ourselves out here is my mom brought us out here but raised us through a divorce and basically raised my brother and I by herself. And when you're younger, you don't really understand that. But now I'm a parent of twin boys.

It keeps me busy. But anyways, the appreciation I have, the sacrifice of how hard that is for single parents. So again, a lot of respect for those. They give it their all. They have no time for themselves. It's the ultimate sacrifice of time. So Mike, you're a new father. You're old twins, correct? Yeah. Yep. Tommy and Teddy. What has surprised you about fatherhood?

Oh, it's one of the things that you're – best way to sum it up is that it's brutally awesome.

Brutal in a sense that all your personal stuff, because again, you're watching out for them, so not only for providing, but spending time with them. But it's interesting. Your world gets a lot smaller and stuff, but again, the moments where you can get a little frustrated, but also then they throw a little smile, a giggle, and it just all washes away. And again, it's been a game changer, and I've been able to, you know, I only work four days a week now. I spend Wednesdays there and just try to spend time. How has it changed you?

What changed me? I am full blown adulting now is probably the best way to describe it. Hashtag adulting. Correct. I feel I've gotten very boring in a sense. Because again, if I'm not working, if I have choices like doing a social hour, again, I'd much rather hang out with my wife and my kiddos and hanging out with them. And so again, it was an interesting experience, but I absolutely wouldn't trade it for the world. Fantastic.

What are, what's a trend you see in Arizona that's occurring that people are not paying attention to? Well, I think the trend is that there's a, this misconception that Arizona's turned blue, uh, or it's a purple state, right? Purple meaning that, you know, it's a toss up, et cetera. I would actually classify it as magenta, which is the lightest shade of red is that we're center, right? Is that very much this election was a referendum on Trump. And we see it in the elections. Cause you look at the Maricopa County, uh, elections, uh,

but then also state Senate races that Trump very much underperformed down ballot Republicans. So the voters are still centered right here. However, Trump ultimately pushed away those folks in the middle, but they delineated between that when they went to vote. When we come back from our break, let's talk about some of the issues that shows Utah, I mean, not Utah again, I keep going to Utah. Arizona is red. Go Utah. I am proud that Governor Spencer Cox in Utah is the one that told Biden, if you don't tell people, start getting...

their mask off, then why do we have to tell them to get vaccinated? It doesn't make any sense. That was the biggest change in Biden's talking point that I've come to appreciate. So finally being honest about, okay, go get vaccinated, then take your darn mask off. Broken potholes coming right back. The political field is all about reputation. So don't let someone squash yours online. Secure your name and political future with a yourname.vote web address from godaddy.com. Your political career depends on it.

Welcome back to Broken Potholes with your hosts Sam Stone and Chuck Warren. Again in the studio with us and thank you very much for joining us today. Mike Noble, OH Predictive. Got some very good points and when we went to break we were talking about how red or blue is Arizona. Magenta. We're magenta. Magenta. Correct. Let us sink in people. I've been saying light red to everybody and they kind of

go berserk. They think we're light blue. They think we're leaning that way. And it's still not true. No. And so you look at down ballot, like you look at Kate Brophy McGee who ran in the district. That was interesting because it's, you know, half affluent, half not. So it's very much a switch.

probably the most swing district of the legislative districts. There's really only five of the 30 are really competitive. The other ones are pretty red or blue. And so I was looking at that district, and for example, the margin there, you see Trump lost that district by about 12 points, but he ran, obviously, more to the right.

She ran definitely more moderate. She ended up losing that race, but only by half a percentage point. But there was about an 11-point difference between the two. And I guess basically the takeaway is, for me at least, I've seen is that Goldwater conservatism at that level

was very successful and gave Republicans dominance. However, moving more to the right or the fringes, you're kind of alienating those key folks in the middle, which independents always organically have been center-right. They haven't even moved left. They've moved significantly left, and that is where I think is the issue right now in the electorate. But overall, Arizona is still center-right. It's just, again, depending on where they...

Well, it's interesting here in Magenta, Arizona. I talked to a Washington Post reporter and he was asking if the state's truly going blue. And I said, no, I go, let me example. Is your poll on 60 percent still believe we should be doing the Pledge of Allegiance? That is not a blue state. Right. I mean, that's not. And then what are some besides the Pledge of Allegiance? What are some other.

survey questions policies like that that you show that just say under underneath it all this is a conservative right of center audience it's not when it comes to like let's say public safety when it comes to police officers right let's say you know back the blue for example you have a lot of talks of you know again the police systemic issues everything else I mean police went from you know our guardians right up there with firefighters to now again being vilified and be honest if you do a ride along with a cop

that's your day in the job. We got our jobs that are a lot easier than those ones. And again, they really risk a lot to be out there being protectors of the community. And so issues like that are still very much rule of law. But again, I think these narratives that get set up, you hear a lot about it. Ultimately, though, in the data, it's just not true. But again, perception is reality. Well, you bring up a good point. For example, if most people did a ride-along

we would see less anti-law enforcement messages. I remember when I worked in D.C. in a congressional office in the 90s.

It was at that time the Sierra Club was pushing everybody to say, look, we just need to make all of the Intermountain West a state park. Basically was their conversation, right? And then they would go and show pictures of Lake Tahoe on their brochures. We all live out here. There's not Lake Tahoe in Arizona. And not to offend anybody in Flagstaff, but you're not Lake Tahoe, right? And so what I started doing in this office, and it worked, we started flying.

Democrat in North at that time there were Northeastern Republicans out to the West and they're just like

I mean, it changed their opinion of it. They didn't realize what was out here. And we know from work we do in Florida and so forth, they come out here and they're just like, I've never seen anything like this. I mean, you take a Democrat who has open borders, open borders, open borders. You actually take them down to the border. You show them what goes on. All of a sudden they get more nuanced, right? And I would actually add something else, Mike, that doesn't necessarily get reflected in your polling, but I think reflects in the results is.

For Democrats to win down ballot, whether it was issues or candidates, in this last cycle, they outspent our candidates massively to do it. Not even close. Which has never historically been the case, which is also an interesting development. So Kate Brophy McGee, for instance, had she been able to spend an equivalent amount of money to her opponent who outspent her, I think it was like three to one or four to one, especially including IE's, I think she would have won still, right? Yeah.

those gains that they've made down ballot here were basically made on a sea of cash coming in from the coasts. Oh, look at just the last Senate race in 18, the midterms. That was actually the first record-spending race with $20 million spent by Sinema, $60 million by McSally. This recent Senate race, Kelly spent $90 million, 9-0, and McSally spent $57 million. I mean, McSally...

got outspent, who's been a longtime congresswoman here, from basically a new entrant of Mark Kelly into the race. And again, so it's interesting, not only the money-wise that Republicans used to always win that battle, but currently they have a bit of a spending advantage. Mike, what do we need to do? I think one sector of our public policy that's ripe for change is public schools. Unions and teachers did themselves no favors with law. Even

Before what I call the PTA mobs, they're fairly disgusted with it. But this – what people don't understand, this does not mean they're going to flee their public schools. The National Education Association, American Federation of Teachers have no idea what a bad 15 months they've just had yet. Well, besides the fact those organizations are just plain evil people. The point is here, Mike –

What can Republicans do and what are policies they should promote to show Arizona moms, look, we care about your kids' education. We care about your public school. This is the craziest thing is that education, it's an issue that you've got to address. I do not know why Republicans are afraid to face it because you should face it but then do it in a conservative way.

Because here's the thing of the public. They want that change education. But also the problem is you can't just keep throwing money at it because it's not about the dollars spent. It's how effectively dollars are spent. Right. And so I think from that approach, I think they could actually dominate and win on that issue. But for whatever reason, they don't want to touch it with a 10 foot pole. And it just really surprises me.

You're right. Well, we've become so enamored of school choice. And I'm a big school choice proponent. And I think not one size fits all for everybody in education. But we have ignored it. We just said school choice or nothing. Well, we've also – I mean I think that's been the movement. But I think there's another problem with that is that we're afraid to fight that battle on the ground that we need to fight it on.

because you look at school choice around the country they do not get all the monies public schools get they have fewer dollars per student and they do a better job and and even in places where they're doing lottery draws and things like that where it's totally representative of the same population that public school has to take in that charter is still doing better with less money and we're afraid to take that on and say why the heck can these public schools not compete with

when they have more cash? - Well, I think it's really very much comes down to the value argument because I think of parents in general, whether it's private or public, I think frankly at the end of the day they're agnostic 'cause they care what is the best for their kids, but also what is the most cost effective way to go about it. I feel like that's something

Any parent can agree upon. And again, let the one win. If a public great. Here are the numbers. Here's numbers. Here's numbers there. Again, ultimately, which one's better for the kids? So instead of treating it like a political football, again, what's best for the kids? If we do that, I think we'll get to a better solution far quicker. And I'd love to see something along those lines. But unfortunately, again, I'm surprised they don't really engage on that.

What are some other issues out there that you see that show that Arizona is not blue, not purple? Well, so last cycle was very interesting. Think of the top issues in the state of kind of like the top three issues as a three-legged stool. The top two issues were education and health care, which you look at that very much benefit

democrats as those issues grow in prevalence hence my suspicion because the covet exacerbation and uh anyway so when you look at uh and then immigration actually wasn't even a top three issue because before the pandemic it was actually uh one-third of arizona voters it was hands down the number one issue covet hit social issues took a back seat jobs and economy shot up because we shot down shut down the economy but since the elections ended

COVID, education have really dropped off. But right now, the issues in environments turning to be far better or better for Republicans because immigration actually is the number one issue. I think it's about 34% now. So back to the high times we had prior. And that very much benefits Republicans. So right now, jobs and economy and immigration are the top two with health care, I think, and third, near education. So basically, the environment shaping up for the midterms.

are looking much better. It's just the thing is, the question is, a party divided is not going to do as well. And so with this audit going on and things of that nature, I think that could have some residual effects. So it would be interesting to see. We're still 15 months out. Are you surprised--

How much guff Governor Ducey has taken. I think he's done a fairly decent job. I think he has gotten some horribly bad rap on things. You and I have talked about it, and I think the best way to describe Doug Ducey's tenure is blandly competent. And that's not a knock. It's been. We need more of it. Right. That's effective. I think it's tempered.

strong and and again the moves and it's funny when watching that i would probably agree with that assessment that i think he gets a bad rap for the items i mean he's just stuck between a rock and a hard place he's signing the election to certify it which legally the constitutionality gave he had to do and i get trump didn't like that result of the election i get it no one likes losing i completely understand however he had to do his job but he gets thrown under the bus essentially just for not

towing the line. But again, if you're in that position, do you follow the law? He has legal counsel, the AG, you have to certify this. But the COVID thing, I mean, I just think COVID, he has gotten such a bad rap. And

It's been amazing to me. And like you said, he has temperate leadership. If Doug Ducey were in Idaho or Utah, he'd probably be about 82 percent approval and not changing anything he's done. Well, I mean, part of the difference is that you had a senator who was terrified that the governor, who was pretty popular and seemed to be doing the right things, was going to jump up and run for that Senate seat.

and politicized it to a fairly well and scared the heck out of a lot of Arizonans. Yeah. Particularly a lot on the left. I think Governor Ducey, frankly, I think he was stuck in a rock and a hard place. He had half the population saying, hey, close down, no one go out, very hesitant. The other one's like, hey, we've got to make money. They have staff, they have family feeds, et cetera. And again, between the two, you move a little left, you make one mad, move a little right. But he had to make a decision as a leader. Right.

I mean, no one knew what was going to happen when this first started. I don't know when it first started, sat down, made a decision. I want to make sure everybody who worked for me has a moment. So my house is paid off when it took a mortgage out on it.

just so we had money. But you didn't know. I mean, we were at the point like, I'll probably just be sitting on the couch for a year. I wasn't sure what was going to happen. As many weren't. And so I think sometimes, too, we expect these leaders who have no special skills in a lot of ways to be...

omnipresent on everything and know what they're supposed to do. I mean, was it, I forget if it was Johns Hopkins or one of the others that did a IQ study on Congress and the Senate about a decade ago, and no one has ever been given permission to do anything like that since because the average IQ in the Senate was like 98.

The thing about this is that, you know, again, knowing a lot of 100 year pandemic, I don't think anyone going into 2020 is like, oh, yes, I'm going to do X, Y, Z. And oh, yeah, 100 year pandemic right about April. Perfect timing. And so, again, when going getting hit with that, again, learning with that information, adapting again to be critical in a sense is just you've got to give some slack because, again, until you're in that seat.

Again, and I think from an outsider's perspective, I think he handled as well as he could comparatively to a lot of other states. I think us as Arizonans are very grateful to have that steady, pragmatic leadership. I mean, between all of all of the governors, I I look at Ron DeSantis as interestingly indifferent to the media narrative. He stuck to the actual science and what the CDC guidelines were.

That's not the narrative a lot of people have gotten about his actions. I think he did the best job, but if you had to add everyone else up, Ducey's in the top three or four for navigating this, maintaining an economy, and protecting people from the virus.

I 100% agree. And that's the thing, just watching this. And that's why I think data is so prevalent. I think that's why starting this five years ago was a big thing because, again, there's a lot of opinions. But at the end of the day, unbiased data, which, again, can prove it time and time again, that, again, where the numbers are moving and why, and try to take that emotion or that self-interest out of it. And, again, just look at the numbers and, again, call a spade a spade. Folks, if you're not following Mike Noble and OH Predictive,

on Twitter, on social media? How do they follow you? Yeah, so mainly it's social media for like press and things like that at OHPredictive.com or at OHPredictive, the Twitter handle. And then we have LinkedIn page. But also I'd say check out the website, OHPredictive.com because we actually put all the press releases we put out. Also, we do a lot of blog posts. And again, our thing is try to make

data digestible for people and how can we explain that for again i think it's really great and but again how to educate folks and not make it scary but show them the value you do a great job at that and i really encourage people to go to your website oh predictive dot com at oh predictive go there see the numbers read the data look at it for yourself

Skip the media spin. Yeah, that's correct. We're trying to bring back sanity. I appreciate the opportunity. It's always a privilege to be on the show. Thank you for joining us today. For your hosts, Sam Stone and Chuck Warren, Mike Noble, Kylie Kipper, the irrepressible Kylie Kipper, Broken Potholes. We'll be back next week. She has opinions. You'll hear them one day. Thank you.