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cover of episode Can aviation ever be sustainable? Here are some paths to net zero

Can aviation ever be sustainable? Here are some paths to net zero

2025/4/10
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World Economic Forum

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A
Ayesha Choudhury
J
Justin Erbacci
L
Laia Barbarà
P
Paul Griffiths
Topics
Justin Erbacci: 我认为航空业的可持续发展是一个复杂的问题,需要行业内所有参与者的共同努力才能实现。单凭一家公司或一个组织无法独自完成碳中和或可持续发展目标。我们需要行业内所有参与者通力合作,才能真正推动这一领域取得进展。我们正在积极帮助各机场制定可持续发展方案,并推出了碳排放认证计划,以评估机场在可持续发展方面的表现。 机场在可持续发展方面做了很多工作,例如:对地面设备进行电气化改造,建设可持续基础设施,提高供暖和制冷系统的效率等。这些措施主要针对的是第一和第二类碳排放,即机场自身可控的排放。至于第三类碳排放,则需要航空公司做出更多努力。机场也在积极配合航空公司,建设支持使用可持续航空燃料和其他替代燃料的基础设施。 可持续航空燃料的使用本身并不复杂,复杂的是它的生产。这主要是一个经济问题,而不是技术问题。生产商已经准备好生产可持续航空燃料,并且非常渴望这样做,但他们需要航空公司和整个行业的承诺来购买这些燃料,这样他们才能获得投资回报。这有点困难,因为航空公司和其他公司由于未来价格的波动和不确定性,在做出长期承诺方面有所犹豫。 对于其他替代航空燃料,如电动飞机和氢燃料飞机,技术目前还不成熟。因此,在不知道技术最终会是什么样子,甚至不知道它是否会到来,以及何时到来之前,机场很难建设所需的基础设施。这是一个两难的局面。我们正在帮助机场进行规划,以考虑未来使用氢燃料和其他燃料的可能性,但这仍然为时尚早。 机场通常是营利性实体,它们以一定的成本提供服务。那么,为什么它们要走在可持续发展的最前沿呢?原因有很多。首先,机场存在于社区之中。作为机场,我们希望确保自己是社区中优秀的成员,并尽可能减轻航空交通对环境的影响,包括排放和噪音。 另一个方面是,随着航空业的增长和持续增长,我们将看到来自社区和政府的许多环境挑战。因此,机场和航空公司需要解决这些问题,以确保我们看到的增长是可持续的,并且不会造成更糟糕的环境状况。 Laia Barbarà: 航空业是人类最伟大的发明之一,它促进了经济增长、家庭团聚和文化交流。然而,我们目前最重要的任务是实现航空业的脱碳化。从煤炭到石油再到天然气的能源转型历时约60年,而我们无法再用60年的时间来实现航空业的脱碳化。因此,我们需要在开发更长期的解决方案的同时,抓住一些容易实现的目标。 航空业面临的挑战是如何在航空客运量持续增长的同时减少碳排放。预计到2042年,航空客运量将翻一番,今年的预计客运量将超过120亿人次。我们需要解决的问题不是飞行本身,而是二氧化碳排放。我们需要找到方法,在航空客运量持续增长的同时减少碳排放。 目前,我们可以通过使用一定比例的可持续航空燃料(SAF)来减少碳排放。虽然SAF并非完美的解决方案,但它已经可以应用于实际。此外,我们还有其他一些更长期的解决方案,例如电动飞机和氢燃料飞机。电动飞机技术已经成熟,但目前航程有限,载客量也较小。氢燃料飞机则可以实现更长的航程和更大的载客量,但其市场渗透率可能稍晚一些。 我们发布了《全球航空可持续发展展望2025》报告,旨在帮助CEO们做出明智的投资决策,以应对行业脱碳化的挑战和风险。CEO们需要在今天做出投资决策,这些决策将影响他们未来十年的发展,甚至更久。这份报告旨在帮助他们做出明智的决策,并识别出那些无论未来如何发展都能带来益处的举措。 可持续航空燃料(SAF)的生产和市场需求之间存在着“先有鸡还是先有蛋”的问题。航空公司想要购买SAF,但其产量和价格都难以满足需求。而生产商则需要知道市场需求才能进行投资。我们需要整个价值链上的所有利益相关者(包括机场、航空公司、政府等)的共同努力,才能实现航空业的脱碳化。航空业是一个全球性的产业,其脱碳化也需要全球性的解决方案,避免出现政策碎片化。 Paul Griffiths: 航空业每天消耗大量的航空燃料,可持续航空燃料(SAF)的产量目前还远不足以满足需求。整个SAF的产量在一年内仅能满足50小时的飞行需求。我们需要鼓励对可持续航空燃料的投资。全球喷气燃料市场价值约2540亿美元/年,如果我们能够对每桶石油征收1美元的税,这将使燃料成本降低约0.8%。然后我们可以将这笔资金再投资于SAF生产,以试图平衡成本和产量,从而加快SAF的生产。 根据摩尔定律,如果SAF的产量每两年翻一番,那么需要7.7年才能使可持续航空燃料的产量达到喷气燃料总量的10%。这是一个非常大的问题,需要一个大的解决方案和巨大的投资。我认为这笔资金可以从行业中筹集。我认为,这更多的是一个经济或政策问题,而不是技术问题。 要使SAF成为未来可量化的解决方案,我认为有三个要素:首先,行业和政府必须共同努力,创造一个公平的投资环境,不会激励不良行为。例如,如果对航空燃料或机票价格征收税款,例如新加坡征收的每位乘客不到2美元的税款用于SAF生产,那么如果在全球范围内实施这项税款,我们实际上就可以解决这个问题。 其次,我们需要考虑成本转嫁给消费者的问题。我认为,消费者应该承担他们消费的每种商品或服务的完全可持续的供应链成本。最后,机场在向可持续航空燃料过渡中扮演着重要角色,需要提前规划基础设施建设。 Ayesha Choudhury: Infinium公司生产的可持续航空燃料(SAF)是一种合成航空燃料,也称为E-fuels,与传统航空燃料化学成分相同,但碳排放量更低。我们利用可再生能源、水和工业废气中的二氧化碳生产SAF。我们的生产过程类似于其他化工厂或炼油厂,但我们生产的是利用太阳能、空气和水制成的航空燃料。 目前,SAF的成本高于传统航空燃料,这是制约其大规模应用的主要因素之一。我们正在努力降低成本,包括优化生产流程、扩大生产规模等。我们已经建成了世界上第一个运营的E-fuels工厂,并正在建设更大的工厂。 可持续航空燃料的规模化应用需要政策的确定性和稳定的市场需求。我们需要政策的确定性,以便我们的客户能够放心做出长期承诺。我们正在与各监管机构、公司和学术界进行对话,以推动政策制定。我们希望在所有政策制定过程中都能参与其中,让决策者了解生产商的观点。 我们已经证明了我们的技术是可行的,并且有投资者愿意投入资金来建设这些资产,并降低成本。我们需要政策的确定性,以便我们的客户能够放心做出长期承诺。欧盟和英国的政策为可持续航空燃料的市场需求提供了保障。

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Aviation is one of the greatest humankind inventions. However, our most important journey just yet is to decarbonise the sector. Welcome to Radio Davos, the podcast from the World Economic Forum that looks at the biggest challenges and how we might solve them. This week, can air travel ever be environmentally sustainable?

To have aviation become more sustainable is a very complex topic. Nobody in the industry can wave a magic wand or work very hard and accomplish carbon neutrality or sustainability by themselves. We really need to have everybody in the industry working collaboratively.

We hear about the technologies that could decarbonise aviation. One of the ways forward is clearly sustainable aviation fuel. At the moment, however, this only accounts for 0.7% of the total fuel production.

That means that the entire SAF production would be consumed in 50 hours during the course of a whole year. We speak to a company that's making jet fuel using carbon dioxide emitted by industry. You're taking that CO2 from a steel mill, from an ethanol plant, from a pulp and paper, from oil refining. We're capturing that and we're using that as our feedstock.

Follow Radio Davos wherever you get your podcasts or visit wef.ch slash podcasts, where you'll also find our sister programs, Meet the Leader and Agenda Dialogues. I'm Robin Pomeroy at the World Economic Forum. And with this look at how we can make aviation sustainable. We all want to continue flying, but we want to do so in a sustainable manner. This is Radio Davos.

Welcome to Radio Davos and this week we're talking about sustainable aviation and later in the program we'll be hearing from the person who runs one of the world's busiest airports, from a company that makes aviation fuel by using carbon captured from industry and from the head of the global airport organization the Airports Council International and to co-host

This episode on sustainable aviation, joining me is Laia Barbara. Hi, Laia, how are you? Hello, Ramin. Happy to be here with you. Tell us what you do at the World Economic Forum.

So Robin here, I head the climate strategy team which includes the sustainable mobility work that we do, including in particular the aviation, the car portfolio that we're going to be talking about today. And you were telling me before you've got a background in aviation. Yes, I'm not only an aviation geek but also an aerospace engineer by background. Perfect. So, but you cover lots of industries though in your brief. So give us an idea of

Why aviation is important when it comes to global carbon emissions and the energy transition and all that? So aviation is one of the greatest humankind inventions, right? It allows the economy to grow. It allows families to get together, cultures to be exposed to others, and business are being made through meetings of people traveling by air oftentimes.

However, our most important journey just yet is to decarbonize the sector. And if we look back, we can see that the transition from coal to oil to gas took us around 60 years. And the bad news is that we cannot afford another 60 years to decarbonize the aviation sector now. So we got to look at what are the low hanging fruits while we develop the more permanent solutions. - As we'll hear in those three interviews that I mentioned earlier,

there are actually lots of ways to approach decarbonizing aviation or making aviation sustainable. I mean, what would you say

are the most important or the most interesting ones? So on one side, sustainable aviation just five years ago was an oxymoron pretty much for everyone. And today we already have solutions deployed at scale. So that's already a good start. And then on the other side, if we look at the air traffic growth, we know that it is projected to double by 2042.

And just to give you an indication and how it looks like the forecasted traffic this year, it's expected to exceed the 12 billion passengers. So that's what we're talking about. And then you were asking me, what are the solutions? Well, now that we know the challenge, I think that the solutions, first of all, starts by understanding that the problem is not flying. The problem is CO2.

So how can we tackle the CO2? How can we decouple it from this growth that is projected while we continue flying and exploring this beautiful world? So we have short-term solutions and long-term ones. And we got to do a bit of a choreography to balance them and change from one to the other. What is available today? Today, you can fly on certain percentages of sustainable aviation fuels. You may have heard of SAFs.

That's how we refer them. Yeah. And in fact, we're going to hear quite a few acronyms from these. SAF is the one that keeps coming up. Sustainable Aviation Fuel. You'll probably mention a couple of others now. Exactly. So SAF today, it's not the perfect solution just yet because we need more SAF and better quality SAF. But it's available today. And that's something very important to have to

have to flag, then we have what we call destination technologies, the true zero technologies. And those are basically categorized in two big brackets. One, electric aviation. We know that it is possible. We know that hopefully within the next decade, we'll have some examples in place. But short-term range, less autonomy, less passengers probably. So not fit for purpose for every single type of travel. Like battery-operated planes. Exactly.

And then on the other side, the hydrogen sees the solution. And this is twofold. Hydrogen for ourselves or hydrogen for world aircrafts. And then those may allow to have greater autonomies, bigger distances, greater ranges, but probably will penetrate the market just a bit later on. Now, the reason we're making this episode right now is because you produced this paper called the Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook. Tell us what that is.

So we just launched during Aviation Day in our headquarters here in Geneva in this 2025, our flagship sustainable aviation report that basically tells CEOs how to go about it. So the issue is as follows. There are many solutions. None of them are

Not all of them are available now. However, CEOs and big decision makers need to make investments today that will lock them up into a particular solution for the next decade, if not longer, right? Depending on the type of assets they're investing in. So we want to help them. We want to shed some light into what are no regrets moves, while we also give a snapshot of where is the sector today when it comes to decarbonizing and B, what are the main risks that CEOs perceive?

So after having interviewed more than 40 CEOs from the industry, we know I can reveal to you, and please, I encourage you to go read the paper as well, that one of the biggest top of mind problems, risks that CEOs see is the lack of feedstock availability and the cost of this feedstock to create the so-called SAFs, the Sustainable Aviation Forward. There's this kind of chicken and egg problem, isn't there, that an airline might want to buy

this fuel, sustainable aviation fuel, but it's not being produced in enough quantities and at a cost that is really affordable. But then the companies making that need to know there's a market there. I suppose that's maybe where the World Economic Forum comes in because it brings together famously the stakeholders of one end and the other, as well as regulators and governments. Exactly.

trying to break the X and make a tortilla, if that makes sense, right? And how do we do that? So we basically get together, as you were saying, everyone along the value chain, and that includes stakeholders from airports, from airlines, from freight forwarders,

as well as financiers, the food producers, but also the suppliers, literally everyone, policymakers, international organizations, industry associations. We got to do a joint choreography in order to achieve the decarbonization of this sector. Because if there's one certainty, Robin, it is that in 2025, politics may have changed, but science has not. Let's talk a little bit about the politics.

but particularly in the US, climate action is certainly kind of off the agenda to say the very least.

But aviation is a global thing and US firms are involved globally. And as well here, the company, the one particular company we talked to that makes sustainable aviation fuel is making it as well here in Texas, oil country. This is a long-term thing. Climate change is a long-term problem. Aviation, if you're in it, is a long-term investment. You buy planes that will last 20, 30 years. Airports, you're building them decades, decades in advance. So

Is that why people are not turning away from climate action, even if right now as we speak, it's not the most fashionable thing, let's say?

a very unique thing from aviation is that it is a global business by nature. Because let's say that country A does not supply these sustainable fuels, but then the plane will land elsewhere. And if this other country does supply the fuel, they will refuel there, right? So yeah, then the emissions happen in the atmosphere, which technically do not necessarily belong to a given country. So I think that just by definition, it is

a very global business. It's a global problem and we should try to avoid it. And that's something that the World Economic Forum, through our Airports of Tomorrow initiative, we're trying to contribute to and advance the agenda, is to avoid having a patchwork of policies whereby every single country imposes sometimes even contradictory policies when it comes to the decarbonization of the sector. So trying to bring everyone under this level playing field where we can just accelerate the decarb of the

of the sector. Because there's one thing you may want to take into consideration, which is we're not only trying to solve the problem of today, but we were saying at the beginning of this interview that air traffic growth is projected to double by 2042. There's regions very hungry of flying, and flying is a huge economic growth vector and catalyzer, right? So think about the biggest economies of

in Africa, think about Southeast Asia and Eastern Asia, the air traffic growth that's going to happen there, it's just impressive. And they do have the means to actually produce this fuel, so it also comes as an economic opportunity in order to diversify their economy and reduce the dependency of kerosene imports, for instance.

Let's get to these interviews. I did these a few weeks ago at the thing that you mentioned. You had an event here at the World Economic Forum called Aviation Day. And this is your Spanish omelette where you brought together all the ingredients from the industry. So what was that?

Aviation Day here in Geneva 2025, it was the second edition that we were doing this gathering here where we get CEOs, top executives from across the aviation sector. They are all members of our Airports of Tomorrow initiative, so more than 80 stakeholders across the value chain. And what do we do? Well, we try to discuss

the speed and skill that we need to move forward and agree on concrete steps forward. So it's less of a ceremonial meeting where somebody tells you the answer and the great things they've done, but it's more of a collective brainpower exercise that these executives conduct in a closed-door setting. So we left

very excited and hopeful. So let's get to these interviews. And the first one is Paul Griffiths. He's the CEO of Dubai Airports. Dubai is a pretty significant airport, I think, right? Exactly. So actually, Dubai is the world's busiest international hub. I think this year they had a record 9%.

number of passengers with over 90 million passengers passing through the airport. Quite impressive. And they also have plans to increase even this capacity further up to 200 million passengers per year at Dubai International, a different airport in the city. Yeah, he mentions that new airport that they're building. This is Paul Griffiths. The key to making aviation sustainable is first to understand the scale of the problem.

The first point is that the aviation industry consumes about 1.08 million tonnes of aviation fuel every day. And in 2024, that grew by 68,000 tonnes per day. So it's a very, very big concern. One of the ways forward is clearly sustainable aviation fuel. At the moment, however, this only accounts for 0.7% of the total fuel production.

That means that the entire SAF production would be consumed in 50 hours during the course of a whole year. So you can see the scale of the problem. What we're trying to do is encourage investment in sustainable aviation fuel. The global jet fuel market's worth about $254 billion per year.

If we were able to put, say, one dollar on every barrel of oil, that would make a difference of about 0.8% in the cost of fuel. Then we could reinvest in SAF production to try and equalize both the cost and the volume production to accelerate it. Using Moore's law,

doubling the production of SAF every two years, it would take 7.7 years to get to 10% of total jet fuel being from sustainable sources. So it's a very big problem. It needs a big solution and it needs huge investment, which I believe could be raised somehow from the industry. Would you say that

It's more an economic or a policy question rather than a technical question at this point. I think there are three elements in making SAF a quantifiable problem solver for the future. I think first of all, the industry and governments have got to work together to create a level playing field of investment

that doesn't incentivize poor behavior. In other words, if there is a levy on aviation fuel or on ticket prices, such as applied in Singapore, just under two US dollars per passenger towards SAF production,

then we could actually solve the problem if that was applied on a global basis. There are precedents for this. There's the Chicago Agreement which agreed many decades ago that there would be no global tax on aviation fuel. If we could have a simple agreement to say there's a levy on jet fuel, then we could fund

scale of SAF production, that I think is the way forward. However, this would result in costs having to be passed on to the consumer. But I think it's only possible and justifiable to say that really the consumer should meet the fully sustainable supply chain costs of every good or service that we consume.

Now you represent an airport rather than an airline, so different priorities, different challenges. What are the challenges for an airport looking to become more sustainable?

Clearly, sustainability in airport terms is limited to the emissions that we produce on the ground, about 10% of the total emissions in the industry. There are many ways of actually achieving a sustainable ground operation. The first is to use electric vehicles throughout the airport environment, which is something at Dubai Airports we're embracing.

The second is to concentrate on alternative energy sources. We've installed 62,000 solar panels across all the rooftops at Dubai International Airport. Those are producing 60 megawatts of solar power.

We are controlling all of our production and cooling infrastructure so that we can consume significantly less electricity. We're engaging in predictive maintenance. We're aiming to send zero waste to landfill within two years. We've eliminated single-use plastics. We are looking at all sorts of new nascent technologies to make the airport as sustainable as we possibly can.

My philosophy is rather than setting a target, let us do a whole range of incremental movements so I can look month by month and see that we've actually made positive progress by not emitting as much CO2 as we did in the previous month. It has to be practical, there's no silver bullet and it needs a myriad of different solutions.

And where do airports come in when it comes to this transition to sustainable aviation fuels? What role do you play in that? The transition to sustainable aviation fuel is a complex one and as airports plan decades ahead it's going to be very difficult to understand exactly what's needed in 10 years time.

We are due to open our new airport, Dubai World Central, Amaktoum International, within the next seven years. And the idea is to have a fuel infrastructure that will cater for whatever alternative aviation fuels, be it hydrogen, be it methane, be it sustainable aviation fuel grown from heifer or from power to liquid. The myriad of nascent technologies clearly have got to mature.

We've got to look at encouraging innovation and development at scale in this area and be ready to accommodate whichever solution emerges as the chosen one. Do you think there will be a solution that emerges as a chosen one? Because there are, you just listed a lot of them there. They're almost competing, I suppose, at the moment.

Do you imagine there'll be in 10 years time, it will seem obvious, we should all put all our bets on solution A, or do you think in 10 years time, there'll still be a whole range of ways of powering aircraft?

I think what is going to happen with energy transition is we'll go through a number of phases and clearly there is from the present day to the future where we've got to use a drop in fuel to work with existing aviation technology and existing aero engines.

Clearly, SAF is the one that looks as though it's going to be in the near term the best way of achieving that. However, in the longer term, methane and hydrogen look as though they could be better alternatives, either in hydrogen fuel cells powering electric engines.

and there are now already some very powerful self-sustaining engines powered by hydrogen that could perhaps power a 50 to 80 seat aircraft. So that technology is very interesting. So I think the thing is, there'll be a solution that takes us incrementally from where we are today, but in the longer term, there's likely to be an emergent energy source that will be the front runner. In any engineering solution, there's usually one long-term winner.

And if I was asked to say where we're going to go, I think probably hydrogen has the greatest promise. Do you think consumers will notice this change? And do you think consumers are asking for this change? I think it's inevitability that consumers will have to respond and understand

that aviation may not be quite as cost effective because today we are clearly not absorbing all the costs necessary to make aviation completely sustainable. It has to be met from a source and clearly if it's spread across the whole world, consumers shouldn't notice too much difference if the cost of sustainability is embedded into the aviation supply chain.

That was Paul Griffiths, the CEO of Dubai Airports. Let's skip straight to the second one. We are moving continents from the Middle East. We're going over to North America. And this is Ayesha Chowdhury. She is the chief commercial officer at a company called Infinium.

What does Infiniium do? So Infiniium is an innovator, a company that is producing sustainable aviation fuels, what we call E-fuels, which is basically synthetic aviation fuels, the type of high quality stuff that exists today, less mature technology pathways. So it comes with higher risk, higher technology demands, but also higher sustainability criteria. So very exciting to see them growing and taking off.

This is Ayesha Chowdhury of Infinium. So sustainable aviation fuel, what actually is it? I'm imagining it's a lot of different things potentially. You're absolutely right. It is a lot of different things potentially, but at its core, however you make it, it's a drop-in fuel. It's chemically identical to its fossil fuel counterpart, jet fuel, but it comes with a much lower carbon footprint.

There's a lot of ways that you can make it. Some are more technologically advanced than others. Today, we have very little of this stuff. And what little of it there is, is made from used cooking oils, fats, and greases. That's kind of like the first generation of SAF.

There's new and emerging pathways, one of which is power to liquids or e-fuels, E being electricity. That's what the E stands for in e-fuels. What we do is we make SAF, the same product chemically identical to the fossil fuel. So you can use it in the same planes. You can distribute it in the same exact way as regular jet fuel. But we make it with a more than 90 percent greenhouse gas savings.

We do that because we're making it from renewable power, water, and waste CO2 that otherwise would have been in the atmosphere. Could you kind of talk us through, in non-expert's terms, how the stuff is made? Yeah, absolutely. So basically, jet fuel is a chain or set of molecules that are made from hydrogen and carbon. The vast majority of the jet fuel that gets made today, that hydrogen and carbon comes from petroleum that we drill from under the ground. But

We don't actually have to get that carbon and hydrogen from the ground. We can find other sources for it. So the source that we use is the carbon that's in CO2 and then the hydrogen that's in water. And we have a process, you know, fancy sausage machine, a lot of very important technology and technological innovation that went into it. But very simply, you put those two ingredients in, there's a way to break up those molecules and put Humpty Dumpty back together in the exact formation of jet fuel.

We hear a lot about hydrogen as a fuel as well, which is different from this. So you could probably the first step that you were talking about there, splitting hydrogen out of water. But the problem there, I suppose, is that

You can't just put that into a jet engine right now. Not yet. I mean, that's something that people are working on and hopefully there's a path for that and there's a long future. But you're absolutely right that hydrogen is where the power is, if you will, and what

And what we're doing is we're synthetically creating that hydrogen from the water and the CO2. We're able, because we're making a molecule that looks and feels exactly like jet fuel or almost like it, it can go into the same plane. So the big difference here is that there is no changeover for the fleet that's required. There's no changeover in the infrastructure. You can

You can essentially increase a lot of asset life of existing infrastructure where lots and lots of people put investment into this by using this method of decarbonizing. It's a circular solution. So if you're asked, how does it work? When you use the fuel, you combust it in an airplane engine, just like you would do the fossil fuel stuff. And so it'll emit CO2. Because it's chemically identical, it's going to work the same way. The difference is that the

the CO2 that it emits, one way to think about it, was going to be in the atmosphere anyway. So what you're doing as a part of our process, you're taking that CO2 from a steel mill, from an ethanol plant, from a pulp and paper, from oil refining. There's lots and lots of sources of CO2 emissions. We're capturing that and we're using that as our feedstock. So you're not adding more CO2 to the environment that there wouldn't have already been.

And I think you use the expression a drop-in fuel. Is that right? That's right. What does that mean exactly? Drop-in fuel, really what it means is that it's the same thing as the other stuff. So you don't have to have any changes to the engines. You don't have to change the planes. You don't have to change over your fleet. Planes are expensive and we use them for decades before we swap them out or retire them. So the idea that you can have a fuel that works exactly the same way, handles the same way, but

It's not made the same way, so you can get it with a lower carbon footprint. It sounds amazing. Why are we not all flying using this fuel right now? What are the problems? One day, I hope we will be. That's for sure. That's a vision for the future. What

This particular type of SAF, this power-to-liquid SAF, offers is the ability to scale that the other pathways don't have. We should make everything that we can. Let's be honest. Decarbonization of aviation is a massive challenge. There's a lot of stakeholders involved. There's a lot that we have to do. It requires a lot of scaling. Why aren't we all doing it now?

Today, it's more expensive than fossil fuel. Now, fossil fuel, it has its own set of subsidies. So there's a lot of debate as to like what's parity and what's not. But again,

Leaving that aside, today, all of the SAFs, all the ways that you can make it are more expensive than today's fossil jet fuel. One of the things that we work on at Infineon is to bring down the cost. We look at every aspect of how we can do that. We continue to invest in R&D to see if we can have a cheaper process. We run the world's first

operating facility making e-fuels today in Corpus Christi. So we have on the ground experience learning how to do this, how to optimize processes, how to make this again as cheaply as we can. And we're building more facilities that are larger in scale where you can get some economies of scale. We're doing everything we can to bring the cost down, but certainly it's not something that's happening overnight. If the money was there to invest in this, it could be scaled up now.

Yeah, actually, you know, I don't think the bottleneck is money. There is lots of money for good deals. We have capital commitments from a number of our investors who are there to fund the next plants and the next plant after that. They're all very interested in deploying capital to do this because there is, you know, people talk about the cost of energy transition. It's also an opportunity to invest, right? I would say the large bottleneck to scaling is more about regulatory certainty and the types of bankable off-takes.

that capital partners need in order to actually finance these facilities. They're not cheap to build. They cost hundreds of millions of dollars, billions of dollars even. So having revenue certainty, in addition to de-risking the technology, demonstrating that, yes, it's new, but it works. And we have this plant in Corpus Christi, which is showing that it is very real, that it's integrated with other parts, other technologies, and it all works from soup to nuts. And that at the end, you get

fuel that you can put straight into a vehicle. You also need long-term predictable revenue, and that's partially coming from your off-takers, but that's enabled by policy, policy certainty, saying that, you know, like for example, there's a mandate to use PTL SAF in the UK and the EU. That type of policy certainty is really important for off-takers to be able to commit to the long-term agreements that are necessary to get these plans built.

Tell us about your operations. What would I see if I came to your plant? If you went to go look at our plant, you would look at it and you'd say, oh, this looks just like any other chemical plant or oil refinery. There's lots of big metal vessels. There's lots of tubes. It kind of looks like any other petrochemical refinery. Our plant in Corpus Christi is a full 24-7 operating facility. We have the full process safety management system.

You wouldn't know to look at it, oh, these guys are turning sun, air, and water into jet fuel. So our first plant that's been operating for more than a year now, and our second plant is even bigger than that. And it's also in Texas. It's in West Texas. It's called Project Roadrunner. If our project in Corpus Christi was the world's first, this Project Roadrunner

is going to be the world's second e-fuels facility. We have capital commitments from Brookfield Asset Management, who's committed $1.1 billion to our platform overall. They're funding this project, and they made a commitment to the next one even after that. Breakthrough Energy Catalyst, Bill Gates' Climate Infra Fund, has also made a commitment to invest in this project. And of course, Infineon has a number of

investors who are also indirectly in this project. And so we have an anchor offtake from American Airlines and I

IAG, the owner of British Airways and Iberia, a few more that aren't yet public. But basically, what we've been able to do is to start to scale up this industry, to bring the cost down. And we've been able to do it with a commercial structure, long-term feedstock agreements, long-term bankable offtake agreements that attract the type of very large check riders that are required to finance these types of very large infrastructure projects.

It's almost ironic, isn't it, that this is happening in Texas, you know, big oil country. And also in the US, climate action is not really on the agenda of the current administration. But this is going ahead. What gives you the confidence that it can survive the variations in the political attitudes towards climate change and the energy transition?

Sure. That's a really fair question. There's one thing to keep in mind when we think about Texas or we think about doing these types of projects wherever they are in the United States and specifically in a very red state like Texas. Yes, we are a sustainable fuel. Yes, we are a part of energy transition. But we're also bringing jobs to the area. We're generating economic prosperity in the communities that we operate in. We're creating resilient supply chains. Where you make e-fuels, they're

is a production pathway where you don't have to be in Texas. You make your own in a lot of places. So, you know, the U.S. is already energy independent because of our oil and gas reserves, but there's plenty of other places in the world where we can deploy this type of technology that don't have that. So energy independence and resilience are also an important part of it. But certainly in Texas, we're bringing jobs and we think, you know, that that's part of it too. Do you think this will expand in other parts of the world?

Absolutely. We have a project portfolio beyond this Plants 1 and 2. We have more than a dozen projects in our portfolio. Some are in the public domain already. Our project pipeline is roughly 50% US, 50% rest of world. We have some projects that we're developing in Europe in particular. But certainly the technology is absolutely fungible. It can be done in a number of locations. And you also need customers or off-takers. What's in it for them?

to buy this fuel, which I'm not going to be crass enough to ask you how much more expensive per litre or gallon it is. Feel free to tell me. But what is in it for them?

to buy this? And how do we know that demand is going to increase? Let's talk about our agreement with IAG, the owner of British Airways, Iberia Aer Lingus. There's a mandate to use SAF, sustainable aviation fuel, in the EU and the UK. There's actually a power to liquid sub-mandate as well. So in addition to just buying any old SAF, you have to specifically use power to liquid SAF, or you face a major penalty. And so it's the policy certainty of the EU and the UK that

gave IAG and the other offtakers that we're talking to

the confidence to enter into a long-term agreement because they know they have to buy this stuff. It may cost them more than the fossil fuel price, but if it costs them less than what the penalty might be for not doing it, there's a strong business case on their end. You say how important is the regulatory environment, that it's predictable and also that it is supporting the development of sustainable aviation fuel. Are you confident, given the current international climate,

that will continue to support your business? Well, it's a fair question. We live in a more uncertain and

undynamic world than we did before, certainly. It's obviously hard to make very long, large investment decisions in the backdrop of more policy uncertainty. So you're absolutely right that uncertainty makes it not just hard for us, but broadly for the entire industry to do stuff. It's about scaling, whether it's our technology or whether it's others. We need as much of this stuff as we can get.

We are going to need policy certainty to be able to scale up this industry. The good news is that with the scale, in certain areas, cost will come down. We're talking at the World Economic Forum, discussions between the regulators, companies, academics even.

And then you've got discussions at international levels all the time, thinking of the climate cops, but also very importantly for the aviation industry, the chaos. And there are talks going to be happening there. Are there things that you're expecting or hoping might happen in any of those fora which would be important?

We want to sit at the table at all of these where policy is getting shaped and people understand the perspective of the producer. We're in a unique position at Infineon. We have de-risked technology. We've proven that it works. We have investors who are waiting in the wings, ready to deploy serious capital to get these assets built and bend the cost curve. One big missing ingredient that we need, whichever the policy body is, is continued policy certainty so that our

our customers can feel comfortable making some of these long-term commitments. Ayesha Chowdhury, the Chief Commercial Officer of Infinium. Let's go straight to our last, my third and last interview from your aviation day. This is the Director General of Airports Council International World, ACI World. Justine Erbachi, what is ACI World? So,

So ACI World basically represents more than 2000 airports across the world and they have very strong work being done on the sustainability side of things. Actually, ACI and Justin in particular have been instrumental in the conceptualization and launch of our Airports of Tomorrow initiative. They are our strategic partner and have been a great thought leader in getting it off the ground. Let's hear from Justin Erbacci. To have

Aviation become more sustainable is a very complex topic that requires close collaboration from everyone in the industry. Nobody in the industry can wave a magic wand or work very hard and accomplish carbon neutrality or sustainability by themselves. They really need to have everybody in the industry working collaboratively to really move the needle in this area.

We are doing a lot with our airports to help them to figure out how they can become sustainable. And we have a carbon accreditation program that determines the levels of how well they're doing as far as becoming sustainable. And we work with them to help them figure out how to do that. Can you give us some examples of what airports are doing that's working to make them more sustainable?

So airports are doing a lot. Airports were one of the first to commit to the 2050 carbon neutrality goal. We have the ACI Airport Carbon Accreditation Program, and there are five levels there. And we have about 600 or so airports that are already accredited, the highest level being level five. We have 19 airports who have already achieved level five.

So, airports are mainly focused in scope one and two areas of carbon neutrality, and that's where they can control what they do at the airport by electrifying their ground equipment, by building sustainable solutions, by making it more efficient heating and cooling systems. So, there are a number of things that airports can do to address scope one and two carbon

carbon goals. Now, when it comes to scope three, that's where really you need the airlines to do a lot of work there. But airports are doing a lot to help to put in infrastructure that allows the use of SAF and other alternative fuels and working very closely with the airline counterparts to try to put things in place to make the airport as sustainable as possible. So SAF being a sustainable aviation fuel,

How much of a challenge is it that some of those technologies are still fairly much in their infancy? Is it complex like that for airports? The use of sustainable aviation fuel of itself is not complex. It is the production of sustainable aviation fuel that is the problem. It's not so much of a technology problem as it is a financial problem. The manufacturers

are ready to make sustainable aviation fuel and are eager to do so, but they need the commitment of the airlines and the industry to purchase that so that they know that they can get a return on their investment. And that's a little bit challenging because airlines and others are somewhat hesitant because of the fluctuation of the pricing and the uncertainty of pricing in the future to make long-term commitments. The other alternative aviation fuels

electric aircraft, hydrogen aircraft, the technology is not there yet. And so it's very difficult for airports

to put in the infrastructure that's required for hydrogen or for electric aircraft when they don't know exactly what the technology is going to be or even if it's going to come or when. So that's another catch-22 that we help and put some papers in place to help our airports when they're doing their planning to take into consideration

the possibility of hydrogen and other fuels down the path, but it's still early as far as knowing when to implement that infrastructure. An airport is usually a

profit-driven entity, it's providing services at a certain cost. What does it get from saying, actually, we are at the forefront of sustainability? Why would they do that? Well, there's many reasons why. One is that airports exist in a community. And as airports, we want to make sure that we are being good members of the community and trying to mitigate the impacts of air traffic as much as possible in the way of emissions and the way of noise.

The other aspect is as the industry grows and continues to grow, we will see that there will be a lot of environmental challenges from communities, from governments. And so the airports and the airlines need to address these in order to make sure that the growth that we're going to see is going to be sustainable and we're not creating worse situations for the environment.

The Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook. What are we trying to achieve, the World Economic Forum and the partners who are involved in writing that report? The reason that we all get together at the World Economic Forum is for us to really move the needle in this area, we all need to work collaboratively together.

Groups like the World Economic Forum helps us to get together, to have the dialogue, to understand where there's commonality, what are the issues that we need to push, and to gauge where we are in the pursuit of the carbon neutrality. Without these dialogues or these discussions with all of the stakeholders, we're not able to be able to make good paths forward.

Can you give us any examples of those financial or regulatory things that would move the needle? We've seen that countries that have incented the production of SAF have much higher production than those that don't.

pushing governments to provide incentives for that is very important. At some point, we have to figure out how we're going to pay for this. There are different potential ways that that can be done, but they will need regulatory change to either have some type of a tax or user fee if that's the path that we want to go. There is a lot of things that regulators and governments can do to help us achieve our objectives.

Are you confident that kind of with that time horizon of 2030, 2050, which are often the years set out in carbon neutral plans, that there will be enough around the world kind of support for these measures? So I think that these recent times we've seen that it's very uncertain as far as what type of support we're going to be getting from governments and the geopolitical situation is

very dynamic and changing a lot. So I think that it's really important that all of us as a group of stakeholders continually remind governments and regulators what it is that we believe is necessary for them to do and just keep driving home that message to them to try to get them to take appropriate action. And our commitment has to be unwavering. We have to make sure that even despite some of the

geopolitical pushbacks that exist today and the uncertainty that we don't veer from our goals and we remain committed to our goals. Justin Erbaci is Director General of Airports Council International World.

Laia, where can people find out more about the work you're doing? The World Economic Forum. We're moving the agenda forward, trying to decarbonize the aviation sector. We all want to continue flying, but we want to do so in a sustainable manner. So tune into what we're doing at airports of tomorrow. You'll find our website. I'll put the link in the show notes. Laia Barbarà, Head of Climate Strategy, Net Zero at the World Economic Forum. Thanks for joining us on Radio Dallas. Thanks, Robin.

And thanks to all our guests today, Paul Griffith, CEO of Dubai Airports, Ayesha Chowdhury, Chief Commercial Officer at Infinium, and Justin Erbaci, Director General of Airports Council International World. You can find out all about the Airports of Tomorrow initiative on the World Economic Forum website. Links in the show notes.

This episode was written and presented by me, Robin Pomeroy, with editing by Gerry Johansson and studio production by Tess Kelleher. Please follow Radio Davos wherever you get your podcasts. And please, if you get a moment, leave us a rating or a review and join the conversation about podcasts on the World Economic Forum Podcast Club on Facebook. We'll be back next week. But for now, thanks to you for listening and goodbye.