Has the US really given Ukraine more aid than Europe?
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Hello and welcome to the More or Less podcast. We're the programme that looks at the numbers in the news and in life. I'm Nathan Gower, and due to an HR error that I'm not going to question, I am your presenter today. This week has been dominated again by the war in Ukraine and the role that the United States might play in bringing it to an end.

But discussions about the future of the war threaten to be overshadowed by a row about its past. Specifically, an argument about who has given more aid to Ukraine to support its war effort. The US or Europe? This was an argument started by the US President Donald Trump. He made some big claims, even for him. Let's start with the biggest. As you know, Europe has given $100 billion to Ukraine.

The United States has given $350 billion. As you know, we're in for probably $350 billion. Europe is in for $100 billion. And that's a big difference. So we're in for probably three times as much. We gave them, I believe, $350 billion. But let's say it's something less than that, but it's a lot. And we have to equalize with Europe because Europe is given a very much smaller percentage than that.

Is this $350bn figure anywhere near true? To find out, I spoke to Taro Nishikawa. He leads the Ukraine Support Tracker at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a respected German economic think tank. They've been keeping track of the billions of dollars of aid pledged to Ukraine since the start of the war. As you might expect, this can get very complex very quickly, especially when every country has a different definition of aid.

The Kiel Institute tries to cut through this. Our primary objective is to maintain a dataset comparable across 42 donor countries, and typically they have different definitions, so we really need to set the standard. Everyone's got a different way of counting, but you're providing a consistent metric. Yes. Donald Trump recently has been talking about one number a lot.

He said that the US has given Ukraine $350 billion. You track aid to Ukraine for your living. Is there any way in which that number can be true? What do you make of it? Based on our data, the $350 billion figure mentioned by President Trump does not align with the number we track.

So our dataset calculates total USA to Ukraine primarily based on the amount appropriated under the Ukraine Supplemental Appropriation Act since 2022, and the total is significantly lower than the $350 billion President Trump mentioned.

Even when checking figures from official US sources, the number remains much lower than his claim. So in summary, while the $350 billion figure is widely discussed everywhere, there's no available information to confirm its accuracy as far as we know. So it's not $350 billion. What's the actual figure? Let's look at the aid allocated for a specific purpose.

This means it's either already been delivered or has been specified for delivery, not just announced as a vague commitment with no actual timeline for when it might materialise. The US's contribution isn't anywhere near $350bn. It's $122bn, nearly a third of the amount Trump's claiming. What about Europe?

The Kiel Institute defines Europe as the European Union nations plus other countries like the UK and Norway. So according to our data set, Europe has contributed over $142 billion to Ukraine. $142 billion, slightly more than the US on $122 billion. Donald Trump's claim that the US has contributed three times as much as Europe, it's just not what the data says.

And it's not just us fact-checking the US president. Emmanuel Macron, the French president, got in on the act too. He interrupted his counterpart during their meeting in the Oval Office earlier this week. No, in fact, to be frank, we paid. We paid 60% of the total effort. 60% of the total effort. Is that correct? We're going to hold Macron to high standards here.

If we're talking about the total amount of aid that's been given to Ukraine from all countries, so including the US and Europe, but also other donors like Japan and Canada, then according to the Kiel Institute, Europe has actually contributed more like 50%. But what do all these aid figures actually refer to?

If we talk about $100 billion, well, $100 billion of what? Are we talking weapons? Cash? We can break the aid down into three categories. Financial, humanitarian, and military. The US has provided a total of $122 billion in aid to Ukraine, so including $50 billion in financial aid.

$3.7 billion in humanitarian aid and $69 billion in military aid. Meanwhile, European countries have collectively allocated over $142 billion with $61 billion for financial aid, $14 billion for humanitarian aid, and $67 billion for military aid.

So, in summary, Europe has contributed significantly more in financial and humanitarian aid and is approaching the level of the US in terms of military assistance. So, Europe gives substantially more humanitarian and financial aid than the US.

America does give more military aid than Europe, but it's marginal, only $2 billion more. However, this does not mean that European aid could fully replace U.S. support. The U.S. remains the largest contributor of military aid, accounting for 48% of its total military assistance provided to Ukraine by the end of 2024. Donald Trump's claim that the U.S. has provided many times more aid than Europe is demonstrably false.

But there's another complaint he's been making recently. "But here's worse: Europe gave it in the form of a loan. They get their money back. We gave it in the form of nothing, so I want them to give us something for all of the money that we put up."

Donald Trump repeated this claim during Emmanuel Macron's Oval Office visit. Just so you understand, Europe is loaning the money to Ukraine. They get their money back. And again, the French president was keen to fact-check his American counterpart. And it was through, like the US, loans, guarantees, grants, and we provided real money, to be clear. So what's the true picture?

Is all of Europe's aid to Ukraine alone and all of the US's a free gift? Taro Nishikawa again. So in fact, Europe provided more aid in the form of loans compared to the US. So by the end of 2024, Europe has provided $47 billion in financial aid as loans, while the US provided approximately $20 billion as loans.

For Europe, that loan component makes up approximately 33% of its total aid, whereas for the US, it represents approximately 16% of its total aid. So about 33% of Europe's total aid to Ukraine is in the form of loans.

The US has also provided loans, and that's about 16% of its total aid. Of course, it is true that the component of loans in European aid is higher than the US, but it doesn't mean that all of the aid provided from Europe is provided as loans. Essentially, Donald Trump is wrong. Europe will only be getting about a third of their money back, definitely not the majority of it.

and it's worth pointing out that these loans tend to have very long repayment terms, typically around 35 years. Our thanks to Taro Nishikawa from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Remember, we are a program that runs on suggestions from our loyal listeners. If you have a question or a statistic you want us to look at, whether it's from the world of politics, economics, science, anything really, we are all ears.

please send an email to moreorless at bbc.co.uk so we can start scurrying down those numerical rabbit holes. We enjoy it. Honest. Until next time, goodbye.