E149: Hamas terror attacks in Israel: fallout, reaction, next steps
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For everybody welcome to episode one forty nine of the all in podcast with me again David sax and to map poly appetite David freeze er couldn't make IT this week. We going to Carry on without him and it's a difficult week. So just a quick opening statement for me about the episode like all of you were devastate ted by the terrorist attacks that occurred in real on saturday.

And I just want to start the discussion here with two important housekeeping notes first. Uh, this is obviously a very dynamic situation and we're dealing with the fog of work quite literally. So we're going to do our best to make sense of what's happening.

But things will change between when we tape this episode on thursday and you choose to listen to IT in your likelihood, at some point over the weekend, a second. There are going to be some folks out there who claim, quite correctly, that we are not the experts on this topic, and this we shouldn't try in with our opinions. On the other side, the all in community has told me explicitly, they wanna hear us discuss what happened, and they want a sense of MC.

As one loyal listener explained to me last night at a dinner, the fact that the four of you can debate hard topics, listen to each other, and in the end have a deeper understanding. The world gives me hope every week. That's why I listen so well.

What we do here every week, we'll have the hard discussion. Listen to each other deeply, hopefully, and i'll try understand world in each other just a little bit more. And that's worth IT, at least to me and apparently many of you. So with those too quick display as gentlemen, anything you want to say up front for a week, up where we are five days into this senseless brutality?

I think that was a pretty good intro, Jason. I mean, you're right. We're tapping on thursday, late morning, pacific time.

By the time this drops, it'll be friday. And so a lot could have happened IT. Also, it's true that the middle ast in general in this topic in particular is hugely complicated. We will be accused not being experts. At the same time, the audience seems to appreciate our opinions as consumers of information who are trying to make .

sense the world. So that's what we can really do right in conversations, I think, or how we make progress. Any any thoughts before we get started here and no recap. What's ccr to make any any um opening thoughts before we get into the details here.

Don't behalf of somebody who. Worked in israel, have a lot of friends there, spent a lot of time there. It's really just a terrible, devastating situation. I've really tried to stay off of social media just because it's allowed me to kind of think a little bit more logically. It's fast and furious right now.

I think comex, and it's just a lot of people trying to make sure that their version of the truth is amplified over every other version of the truth, which I think is like a is the point in the cycle where you you just have to almost unplug from the matrix a little bit and find a few places that seem to be just telling things in even hundred way, which I also find an ex, and then just kind of reconstruct what happened, why IT happened. What do we do for you? Don't know, I don't know. I have a lot of thoughts on a lot of the preferred issues, but the correction is just i'm just done that this happened. I I don't even know how this is possible that this happen.

Like to math. I'm not trying to get to weight into deeply into the tweet.

but I did notice you. By the way, I have stopped waiting. You've done a couple of retweets, but you you've pause this week a lot of .

your training yeah I mean, I think that process important time to listen and learn and process what's going on. It's not a great time to be having hot takes. I have posted a few things first all days, and you've made the analogy to nine, nine, eleven being in in new york right now.

I think that that is the comparisons been made is that this is israel 3 eleven。 Yeah, I think that's a justifiable comparison in in two respects. One is this is was a terrorist attack IT was an atrocity ity this was a massacre re of of civilians.

Even if you're somebody who believes in the palace inan calls, you should build to recognize that these were war crimes. The videos are coming out. The stories are coming out, in particular the rounding up and and slaughter of two hundred hundred and sixty attendees, that a music festival was really beyond the pale.

They're clearing. Some of these are farming villages and so forth, and finding the bodies your families basically killed. Anyway, we don't need to repeat all of the details here, but but this was, I think, an attack on civilians that is reminisce of nine eleven and and has affected the israeli people in a small, more White.

I think the other analogy tonight, eleven, that's worth discussing is the reaction to this what what israel going to do and what the reaction is by U. S. Political figures. You heard people like nicki hailey basically saying to to the iao who finish them IT wasn't exactly clear whether he was just talking about her moss or the whole gaza strip or maybe iran and then if there was any ambiguity about that, you just had linsey graham come out and say level the place, meaning referring to all of gaza.

Yes, crazy.

I'm very concerned that one of the purposes here of of the terrorists was to provoke an overreaction like the U. S. Uh, engaged in after nine eleven.

Remember, we were viciously attacked. We were wounded. We then lashed out and plunge into two decades of wars in the middle east.

What was the result of that? We lost thousands of lives, our own soldiers. We spent trillions of our treasure. Millions of people on the other side died. yes. And we, at the end of the day, we only changed the geological map of middle east in ways that were ultimately unfavorable for us.

Around became a more powerful country, the region became destabilized and we squander, uh, the sympathy that the united states had in its moral position that we had after nine eleven in the ice of much of the world. So the U. S, I think, fell for the trap that I think but long laid, which was to provoke costs into over reaction.

I think that is one of the goals of terrorists is to create such an outrage, such a provocation, that they will beat the other side into over reaction. I'm quite concerned that could happen here. I think that R U S. Leader should be as friends of israel, should be counselling a cool heads of response, I think, brain for war with iran, or suggesting that the entire gaza strip should be levelled, would be doing exactly the wrong thing. I would ignite the erb street into your point least.

Perhaps that was the goal here. And you we're trying to figure what is the goal of this attack that was planned for years. And perhaps that was the goal is to try to take all the hard for peace and progress that has been made in that a process over the over the last couple years, abram accords stability and then just we don't really create a full scale escalation.

I think that's right. I mean, look, I think israel is within its rights to this man on destroy. Homos is an organization that in its charter has said their committed to the destruction of israel.

Theyve now committed a catrock again. IT was, if they had just limited their attack on formed israeli officers and military, I think that would be one thing. But they went much further than that.

The vast majority of the casualties here are civilians who were murdered in atrocious ways. So I think there are terrorist organization, and israel well within its rice to destroy them. However, the question is how you do that? Yeah, like a lot of terrorist organizations, homos can kind of melt away into the population of gaza.

They've apparently have these elaborate tunnel networks. You've got bonkers. So it's not clear that you can destroy them from the sky through bombing. The those kinds of bombs would lead to a lot of civilian casualties, which will inflame the situation in turn, world opinion against israel at the same time, if they go in with ground forces, that seems like a really tough situation as well.

Because homos is waiting for them, and they they will have to fight a gilla war in a very tightly pack dense urban area where homos likely has antitank weapons, weapons that we've seen that have been so effective against armored vehicles in ukraine. Again, if the fighting gets too hot, they can disappear to these channel networks. Going to be as everywhere, it's going to be a very, very tough fight for the israeli.

So I think they're in an incredible tough spot. I'm not quite sure what the right reaction is for them, but I do think that if the reaction is this ah this called the Linda gram level, the place reaction, I think that could set off a much wider regional war or even a world war and that is not something that also to making to help israel. And I hope that our leaders are wise enough to be canceling against that.

I get the sense that they are not going to uh, go that hard. And if you look at the american response to nine eleven, you know, going into afghanistan and dismantling alaka, a nobel mission, and we didn't have any more terrorist attacks on or very we ordered most a terrorist attacks. There were attempts actually, and our intelligence was very strong over the last couple of decades, and we haven't had another one of those. But you're right, going into iraq. And then you know what, what was the last decade about being in afghanistan?

We went on to iraq, went into syria, went into libya. We stayed in afghanistan for twenty years. IT should have been a quick surgical strike to take out alcade and .

the taliban host. And then we should. And revulsion here, you know, homos can just fade away into the guys, a strip into into palestine. And you know, who knows? cheap. I guess where we're at right now is trying to make sense of why this happened and what the next couple of weeks might look like, right? And so your thoughts.

I think israel has every right to defend itself and they should eradicate ate him us. This is not like we woke up and found out that they were a terrorist organization yesterday or on sunday. We've known this for years.

They've been labelled as such. People have been monitoring their money flows for years. We know where they were funded.

But the thing to keep in mind is that those thirty thousand hours terrorists have also been keeping two point two palestinian hostage for the last twenty years. And of the two point two million palestinian gaza, half or kids. And so David, right, the thing to keep in mind.

As barbera is, what happened to israelis were israel, in its actions, could cause tremendous civilian casualties, which will just further inflame the ability to find a long term peace in the middle east. That's really tragic. And that's probably part of hooses kind of statistic calculus, which is they they probably expected this kind of a reaction and they probably don't care at the end of the day.

So it's important to separate palestinians from a MaaS. But I understand and I know where israel coming from because we face the same reaction after nine eleven. The question that I have is israel is the most sophisticated military and intelligence organization in the world. And the reason is because when everybody talks about priorities, israel only really has one priority, which is to save card.

Israeli people survive.

and they've been essentially in a conflict zone with this sort of since the founding of israeli. So there are three organizations that we really have to figure out what happened here, right? There's mosad, which is the foreign intelligence service of israel.

There's shin bet, which is the domestic security Operators. And there's amon, which is the military intelligence group, and it's how did this happen because this should have been priority one, two, three and four, right? That and IT has always been for them.

Other other countries, the safeguarding of their people is not necessarily always number one, right? And then things happen. And then you reprise tize in in many ways. That's what happened in nine eleven. I guess it's some level in america.

I mean, we had all the signal before that. And when we did the nine eleven commission and we found out they were going to flight school here, no, IT was pretty clear .

that I was an intelligence failure for america.

And those are the two big thoughts that I have.

which is there's just going to be so many civilian casualties, what will that do to actually, I think that, that has a huge negative impact on the long term chance of piece, because then radical will use that information to further or to attempt to radicalize the next generation of palestinians, rather arabs or whatever. And so I worry that the progress that was made in the April ham accords, all the Normalization goes off the rails.

And that's tragic because most of these people be overwhelmed. Majority of all, people everywhere. They just want peace. They just want to live people and life, care their family, raise their kids. So that's really tragic. But then the other the other part of my mind is like, how could disappear into the cracks and and why were the most ophrys cation intelligence organza flat foot to you?

Yeah this is going to be A A lot of uh, information that will come out over time and lessons.

And by the way, the reason why that second piece is important, it's not the point the finger at anybody, but it's the deescalate because of what sucks at earlier, which is that when people who can articulately guard for war, or given the bully pulpit, and you see american politicians now braying and garden for war, I don't think they fully recognized the consequences of that.

They are not doing a full accounting of what amErica has lived through in the last quarter century. And now to induce other countries to try to do the same, I think, is so dangerous. And so if we can understand where these cracks are, at least we can to escalate those specific individuals attempts to escalate.

And if we don't do that, we're going to find themselves in a really complicated war. And I don't think anybody wants that. Nobody wins.

Nobody wins. And I mean that at this point, really the returning of the hostages seems to be the most important, you know, highwater mission and has to occur after that, clearly dismantling hamson and this terror apparatus. But you know, having started to spend some time, you know, in the region and talking to people over there, and again, i'm no expert, but I have been talking to people who been working on this.

You get people been working on trying to create peace in the region for their entire lives. And this is definitely a setback. But i'm an optimist, and I actually think that in some ways this is going to create a climate where people are gonna really fight to try to a resolve the situation, or at least contain the situation to state's solution, the abram cords.

And I think there, this is going to renew peoples commitment to peace in the region. And I I know many, many of the countries over there are really a gas that what happened and they've been working really hard to try to Normalize relations that in create peace and prosperity and commerce and you know between uh the different countries in the region. So this is just heartbreaking um for the loss of human life and how that occurred.

And then it's also heartbreaking for the peace process and all progress that's been made recently. And so I think it's you know the there's no server lining here, but I do think this will uh maybe the good people of the world will recommend to trying to resolve this issue and create piece and region. That's my hope.

I know it's simply list c uh, again, no expert, but that's my hope. And i've ve been spending time with their and learning a lot more about the region. These these are multi generational issues that are going to a take generations to figure out and it's it's two steps forward, one step back, obviously.

Uh, but men for the politicians and the people negotiating this piece, and they works so tired, sly on this for their whole lives you know, keep at IT. That's all we can do, right? I means nothing .

disrupting the process that was happening towards Normalization of relations between the israel and erb states, specifically the gulf monarchies, I think, was one of the objectives here yeah. So I mean, israel's contention for a long time is that they wanted negotiate peace. They they wanted to negotiate, but they don't have a partner to negotiate with, whether you believe that or not.

That was, that was their position. And with Abraham accords, we saw that they started to be able to negotiate the Normalization with three gulf erb states without involving the palace. Inigo and IT looked like that issue was being put to one side, and that they were kind of going around IT.

And the idea of being lucky, if you won't negotiate with us, then will figure out a way to without you. The big news that it's been going on the last few months is that supposedly israel and saudi aba were close to working out some certain Normalization. And I think that process input on hold until I think this has been doubt with.

And so I think one of the takeaway here is the idea that you're going going to get to middle peace without resolving this palestinian question. I think this is basically a return to to the reality that that issues to be onna have be dealt with. I don't think we get to a larger deal in the middle east where not going to resolve all these problems until this long festering problem of the treatment of the persanes is dealt with.

I think you're write that the two state solution is the only possible solution that makes sense. I mean, what's the alternative? Uh, one state solution means that either it's run by the israelis but presiding over hostel pal and minority that may eventually one day be the majority and you're forced into some sort of apartheid state or the palestinians are running that one party stated that means that the use of been pushed to the sea.

So neither one of those solutions looks very good. So that leaves you with a two state solution, however hard, however impossible. Seems to negotiate that it's the only option.

Yes, it's the only option and it's the real opportunity. I think the my hope is that instead of pushing sauty away, this actually pulls saudi close stances. okay? This is a chance to really Normalize the global perception of the middle st, because if there can be away for israel and saudi to build a bridge here, I have a lot of hope that there can be a lot of stability and a lot of the good work. Mean, again, like man.

As a democrat who has been left homeless, who is now definitely in the centre, but probably leaning increasingly right, i'm left yet again with appreciation despite the messenger of the message of the trump administration, because what those guys did was pretty incredible in high insight. These Abraham accords accords with israel in the gcc, the almost accord between israel and saute. To really be able to like find a long lasting peace. But just a real example for the world. And those guys still want a really good work.

And IT is a miracle actually, when you when you look at IT, what they did, you know, despite the fact, listen, no fan of trump and I am too home ject look at what they did.

they had work and you have to and in fact, this is a moment where you have to start to reunite.

Ite, like, is your not you, Jason, but i'm just collectively is once trump ed to arrangement syndrome causing more damage than anything that trump could have actually done and I think the answer is yes because like it's now causing us to not see that good work and then embrace and extended so much of the work that happened in that administration turns out to have been right. And that's what's so frustrating for me. The work on the border wall, we didn't like the messenger.

So we killed the message. Turned out IT was right, issuing long term debt to refinance when rates were a zero. We didn't like the messenger, so we killed the message. A structural piece in the middle st. We didn't like the messenger, so we killed the message.

When are we going to to stop shooting ourselves in the foot? And when are you going to actually see and take the time to look past who is saying things and actually listen to them word for word? I'll give you an example. I started to tweet three links a day over the past three days.

And the only reason and I did that was that I thought things were so hyper contentious and hyper partisan that I just wanted to show a few sides, right? And one day I found a couple links, two of which one was from john athan Green blood of the idea, who I thought had a very powerful message, and one was from mike fine. And his message was also actually pretty powerful, if you just read IT, and if you took the names of all the content was so valuable, both points of you.

But the minute they goes into the world, people immediately judge, and they kill the messenger because of the messenger. And that is exactly a moment where you have an opportunity to just stop doing that because mistakes are so high. It's infuriating actually, quite honestly, it's infuriating to see IT.

We had this last week on the show when we were talking about reducing spending. The markets is not the perfect messenger, but his message was the message we've been talking about in which is, hey, we have to control spending. So you I can understand people not like not gates. There's a lot of things to not like about. I understand people not liking trumping, get over IT well and then know it's bizarre that um his son in law went to do all this work but yet he did IT and IT .

had success that's another example.

It's weird if you to do IT but I listen to the last post you .

it's not wear because at the end, if you listen to this podcast, the most important thing that is resoundingly obvious about geert cushioning is that he is incredibly thoughts and incredibly competent. And right? Why did we have to spend years being fed all of these stupid lies? Because one can judge for oneself.

But geert questioner is thoughtful. He smart. And I thought to myself, I was fat. All these lies for years about how this guy was, like mopping around in the shadows of this, that and was all not true.

Well, no, woman, I say it's non traditional if you send you know any presidents, son in law, daughter in law, whatever child to go to the middle is on its surface. This seems insane. But in fact, he, they did good work. And so it's not traditional. It's not which you would expect.

Thought ful incompetent.

That's what I thought after I, that's what I got out of IT as well. Thought for incompetent?

yes. Yeah, he broke some fresh. So the clear were talking about, is he just an interview with like free? And the first hour was on what's happening with this role to us?

Must watch. I think I thought .

IT .

was excEllent cell ent.

IT was Ellen. He did this in terms of having fresh eyes. He did things like focus groups, like OK does what does the airport think about various topics? And he actually to focus groups in various countries to find out.

So I mean, I think cash, I made a number of really interesting pots showing how difficult going to be to get to a two state solution. But first you have to set up what is the the palestinian side say. And what they say is, look, gaza is effectively an open area prison.

You've got over two million people packed into this very tight area. There's something like fifty percent unemployment. It's impoverish.

The conditions are deplorable and they don't have their own state. They don't have rights. And it's been like this for a long time.

So that sort of the the basic pro palestinian argument cursor response that was, well, yeah, but you know israel left in two thousand, six at left time, as in control, gave them the keys effectively. The reason why there such a unemployment is because her mos is corrupt and doesn't enforce property rights. And they scare away all the investment.

Nobody wants to invest there now. And israel did give work permit so people could leave goin to go to work. And look what happened.

I mean, when they try to open up the walls, you have a massacre. So these are the points that he mate. Look, I think both sides of this have legitimate arguments and points to make.

I think that the conditions of the palace inie in gaza is deplorable. And you have to feel for the civilians who live there, of course. But then, you know, israelis have a right to live without fear, the fear that their security in jeopardy and that this territory can be the launching pad for terrors attacks on their soil.

So it's gonna be an extremely difficult, I think, to to reconcile this. But you know, Christianity of other and points said, listen, the gas apart. This is not that hard because the boundaries, the territory lines are not in dispute.

There's no religious areas that are in dispute. For example, you don't have the status of the temple mount, you know, estero salem, and there's an economic plan to revitalize gaza strip. So you really just need and negotiating partner for the israeli is to figure that out.

And of course, now the problem is who do you negotiate with? I mean, homeless is a terrorist organza that is dedicated, the destruction of israel. So it's a really A A tragic situation you look at and you're like, this should be easy to work out, but it's not it's a relatively .

small area, is a relatively small number of people. It's, it's it's two million people. We we should be able to figure out the rest of the free world how to at least have a path for just the first step is getting rid homos, right? There's no choice.

but they have to go. And of Jason, I mean, I look if if there was a trying if there was a button that israel could pushed to eliminate every member of our mouse, yeah sure they're be within the rights to push that. The problem is that her moss is now to be bedded in, embedded in a civilian population over two million that's densely packed. How do you root them out?

Gona take decades.

It's onna take decks. And they basically supported by that population as far as we can tell yeah and you know again, if you if you take measures that are perceived is too drastic c by the rest of the world, then you all inflame the opinion of other countries will turn against israel. So again, it's a really tough situation, but I think that the U.

S. Should not only affirm its support for israel's ally, denounced the atrocities that happened on ten seven, but I think he needs to reiterate that by administration does its support for a two state solution. I think that the U.

S. Has been on the record that what's in everybody's long term interest, including israel, is ultimate to state the solution. And at the past, things are eventually gonna to have their own state. They're simply no way around that.

right? Yeah I and the free world, I think is in the process of getting engaged in making this up because it's in everybody's interests. I can't keep going on um and so hopefully this again, I don't want to say silver lining but I hope that this the good that comes out of this is that the world focuses on resolving this conflict .

or containing surprise that all Jason, by the amount of people that seem to be almost justifying that wish .

him I mean, I I I the fact that people can make any kind of equivalence between terrorist activity and the the level of a brutally I, I, I can't even describe IT because it'll trigger my P, T, S, D, which I had after nine, eleven and IT still affects me. I'm sitting here enough far from grounds, zero. And you know, for people.

We are educated people, oncologist campuses, or just otherwise, to blame the israeli is for the murder of children, for people being and then justifying rape and torture, kidnapping. I mean, there is no justification, and there is no equivalency. There is no equivalency here. And and this is one of the big problems. And you know, these dobe kids on harvard campus, whatever they have never explained evil, start, suffer, literally just dismiss these idiots, because these are kids who have navia.

I don't. I think you can. I think one of the things that was shocking to me was the level of basically either subtle or late anti semitism.

conscious of ever that .

IT don't locked. And I was also shocked to just success. Users work before, but it's true bad. Our leading educational institutions have really become woke madras. They are inculcating kids with just some very ent polices.

I think the reaction is always to go after to support the underdog. I think in this group of people is IT.

That is an idiotic simplification that the smarter schools in the world educating the smartest kids in the .

world should be that how think that that's how they think that I can be. I can't. It's half Anthony emetics, it's half.

They just think who's the underdog? I'm taking that side. I did IT is that simple? Not in the work mindset and well, luck.

I think IT was discussing a disturbing to see these organization, these are lead institutions being unable to denounce hamster terror attack in the atrocities that took place, or turning out in the streets to celebrate what happened. And we saw a lot of that too.

Look, even if you support the palace, ian, cause, even if you believe that they've mistreated, even if you think that their land has been occupied, they deserve their own state, even if you believe that war against the state of israel is justified on that basis, these were still war crimes. These were beyond the pale of war. Again, how much did not just attack some military installations on the border? And kill soldiers or captured soldiers.

The vast majority of the people who were killed were civilians, and there was no conceivable military purpose in, for example, paragliding, ding into a music festival, festival for peace, by the way, and then rounding up the slaughter, the concert goers. There is no conceivable military justification for going into these kepis of farming communities. Three families, no killing ranged. It's range.

So it's it's terrorism. And the fact that they can't frame IT as terrorism isn't sane. But think about what happened OK.

I just wanted frame the order of events. Okay, ten, seven happens. And I think within thirty six hours or less, take harvard as an example. okay? Ah the pinna of the work medas they are all these student organizations immediately come out trying to justify this thing without any information, right? Because in the first thirty six hours, obviously not nearly as much information was available as to exactly what happened then has been available.

Now as an example, I should read the statement just so people have clarity. Please join joint statement by harvard palace palace in solidarity groups on the situation in we the understand student organizations hold island the israeli regime into rely responsible for all unfolding violence. Today's events did not occur a vacuum.

For last two decades, millions of palms, ini, ans and gaza have been forced to live in open our prison. Israeli officials promised to quote, open the gates of hell. And the massacres in gaza already commenced.

palin. Palestinians in gaza have no shelters or for refuge and nowhere to escape. In the coming days, palest palestinians will be forced to bear the full brunt of israel's violence. This is the right sociopathic.

My point is you thought you have like fifteen or twenty of these student organizations of all ilk. okay. So it's not just propelled inan groups.

IT was like the harvard six association. okay? Like seeks in south asia are the most peaced loving people in the world.

They're not a war of any kind, what soever or proteron orison. So all these people write this thing which blames is, well, okay, then the school is totally silent. The school isn't.

They neither. They neither completely disavow that statement, nor do they come out with a more reasonable statement. All these x faculty and x individuals, Larry summers sort of leading, say, this is outrageous.

Have an opinion. They come out with something that's milk toasts in middle of the road. Then they get soundly rejected by everybody yet again. Then the administration comes out and gives a clean dub version that tries to relay everybody's anger because that the first statement, I think, basically, essentially pissed off everybody on both sides. Then a bunch of alarms who ve already graduated or who given money, say these student organizations are outrageous. We will not hire anybody who's part of this because their views are so immoral that we would never want these people part of our organization.

And here is the people have, yes, bill ackman said, I have been asked by a number of c OS if harvard would release a list of the members of each of the harvard organizations that have issued the letter assigning so response for a mosses hinz ax to israel, so as to ensure that none of us inadvertently hire any of their members. In other words.

you must own your words, which what happens? Individual students actually have to come out who are part of these associations that were signatory to the first release, had to disavow the statement and said, actually, i'm just an indian student at harvard law school. There's a nick.

Maybe you can find this tweet of the site, indian woman from colorado or indian heritage and she's like, you just get auto recruit into these organizations when you join harvard. So all i'm like, well, wait a minute. This is a place that supposed to be for, like modern free speech, progressive thinking.

And instead, what happens is based on your skin colour. You get auto drafted into some association, then you auto sign any press release written by some person that you don't even see your approve. What is going on at these places? And these are the places that parents and kids are tripping over themselves trying to get into.

Kids will kill themselves if they don't get into. And these are the worst institutions in america. Because back to Jason, what we talked about earlier, which is we need people who can think from first principles. Those kids are not IT, and those institutions are not making them.

And so if we want to have a point in time where when things like this happen, we can really figure out what happened in the past that was right, and what can we do in the future. It's not this and it's not this kind of thinking. And if you are going to a school, harvard, cornell, u pen, stanford, that are spitting out these kids, I think it's a real shame.

You spotted on, I mean, how sax could there any be any question about the difference between military terrorists, you know, with machine guns gunning down people, dancing peaceful at a music festival at sunrise, and then make some equivalency there is, and you cannot actually ascertained for yourself that is a terrorist act if you can't, from very basically opening your eyes and seeing what occurred.

And you thank god in some ways for for x not being censored, because you can actually see these things. And I know it's very difficult for people to watch. I don't have any judged on people who don't want to watch IT, but I think when the world sees these videos and and you're going to write this letter, you should very quickly be able to concern military terrorist fighters from hippo kids dancing at a music festival.

It's plane as day. There still nothing. There's nothing to confuse you here.

This is the most easy test. You you have to be brainwashed to see something other than that. These schools are woke maus.

yeah. So a couple points on that. So if you look their statement, I think it's it's a appropriate and fine to express concern about the people, the civilians living in gaza and what the israelis might entail. I think IT is fine and and good to do that both for humAnitarian reasons and for self interested reasons. If you're a supporter visual, because this could all spiral out of control. However, these people completely lit their credibility on fire from the first paragraph by saying that israel was entirely responsible for what happened, and not having one word of condemnation for the atrocities that had just been committed. They cannot even see the war crimes that have occurred.

So they don't even mention how much. They don't even mention the actual people that perpetrated the crime, right?

So the question is, what is IT about their ideology that blinds them to this catrock ous massacre? And and I think IT is this, I do think IT has to do with this. The spoke mindset, the the woke ideology is a form of cultural marxism in which people are divided up into oppressor and a press group.

So in mark is original teaching. You had the politi an and the booz z, basically the oppressed and the oppressor. This kind of went through this cultural identity filter with woke, where, again, people are divided up into identity props.

And so you've got men versus women, White verses, black and Brown. You've got straight VS, gay and so on down the line. And the the idea is that there's a power structure. And if you are in one of these groups and you are, by definition, a press, and if you are in one of the oppressive groups, and by definition, you are guilty in a collective way, you, you are suffering from.

yes, right? The people who are oppressed are the righteous ones.

yes, right? But I think that what you see is that when you divide up the world this way, first, all this is not a very accurate way of looking at the world. I mean, there are a lots of minority groups in the united states that have done great.

So, for example, there is a book written recently about asian americans in the united states called the inconvenient minority. Why is IT inconvenient? Because asian americans have done spectacle. Well, they get into alec colleges and institutions at a higher rates, then then White do, which is why there the primary group has discriminated against by a formative action before was overturned by the same court.

But the reason why the author called them the inconvenient minority is because their success in amErica refutes a lot of this sort of simmon lisc woke deLinda between, if your minority group eua press, and if you are, you know, in this whie group or the oppressor. I think jews have fAllen into a similar type of categorization, which is there an inconvenient minority? Theyve been historically very successful in amErica despite there being existence of of anti semitism.

And I think that the woke ideology has reacted to this by saying, no, you know, juice are not really an ethnic group. They're White. And so that's been the response, right as well.

Thus, to put them in the oppressor group that so we don't need to explain away their success, one of the problems with that is that you have to ignore the existence of antisense sm, and so they do. They just pretend like IT doesn't exist. So here you have a situation where all of these things are in play. They've already predefined the palestinians as being an oppressed people and and look, and I think in many ways they are.

but they are not but .

theyve to find if racial terms really, and they've to find the israelis and and jews really more generally as being part of an impressor group. And so everything fits in that larger narrative. And so when members of one of these woke a press groups commits in a justice, they just can see that. I mean, there a version of social justice is always defined in terms of collective guilt. And if you are a member of the press group, by definition ing, you're not capable of coming and justice because you don't have the power.

Do you guys think that bill ackman was out of line by saying I don't want to a hire kids from these organizations in these schools because it's just like these kids and these schools will bring basically, I think what he's implicity saying is distraction and IT will lower the probability that I achieve by corporations. So these are not good workers.

Based on your comment about thinking from first principles and and you know being able to assess the situation, I think that's probably what happens at a hedged fun. You have to place bets and you have to be able to think from first principles and be intellectually rigorous. This is the most intellectually lazy approach.

I'm just going to sign a piece of paper without even thinking. So no, I don't think, is that a and I think it's an important lesson for people, just like freedom of speech. I was owning your words.

You must own your words in position. And it's important that Young people learn this. Now you have to own your words, whether it's on social media or signing some stupid petition that you didn't read. And and there's a lot of backtracking in going on right now.

By the way, I can't believe that if I had got into harvard, I would get auto drafted into the Brown man's association just because of the color of my skin that could be in the factory i've ver factory group.

I mean, let's put out the double standard here that these elite harvard students want to be, except from their their words, their statements, they don't want to be cancelled for that. However, you know that when some happy lish smog basic post some tweet or posted a tweet ten years ago, that is really surface. There are the first ones claiming for their cancellation.

right? They would like .

for their firing.

They would like amnesty for their idiotic opinions.

And what good? Good for the goods for the gander? If there they're gonna ate a cancel culture where people get cancelled for their decade old tweet and so forth, and they should be prepared to live by that standard.

Look, personally, I would have some degree of forgiveness for a college student being part of an organization that puts out a statement they're claiming they didn't know. Okay, but then why did you resign? Look, I don't think there's a good excuse for this other than youthful stupidity. So I I wouldn't cancel them forever but luck I do think that it's fine for inappropriate for someone like black and one hire people yeah I think .

I would just be careful for you to add the word youthful because I think it's just get out of jail free card. It's definitely stupidity. The question is, is the cake baked? And if the cake is baked, then there is a big argument to never hiring these people. I mean, look, now I just say your frontal .

lobes are still developing into your twenty five years old. So I I would give college kids a bit of a pass if they do stupid after you're there to learn, you're there to make mistake. That's not what this is a huge mistake. You're saying the banks fully bake. You mean like their their opinions and who they are?

Thing is, you learn a lot from actions. You drink too much, don't drink, don't exercise enough. You get a little slug ish, maybe little overweight. I get all of that. I'm not convinced that when you have this fundamentally specific wave thinking that you can unwind that so easily, don.

So i'm not convinced OK sure that this mind virus gets fixed because you, all of us that need a job, I actually think like maybe it's the struggle of realizing that there are deep consequences to this gain, of thinking that this oppressed verses oppressor. Or the other way that he was framed in our group chat is that voguish and the embracements of socialism is basically running away from excEllence. It's this idea that everybody has to be the same, what communism says, we all are the same.

Nobody is special. We're all gone to work together, do the same things are gonna dress in the same ways. It's the collective. We there aren't going to be exceptional outliers. But the problem is that not how the world works.

And so the other part of why these world medals are so terrible is that IT teaches, I think, to work away from excEllence, and instead of striving for accidents, to strive to be part of a collective. And I think that that it's fundamentally corrosive to america. It's corrosive to our god is here.

It's closer to all the great countries in the world. And so then again, it's like, why would you hire kids who fundamentally don't want to be excEllent, who are afraid that if they were excEllent, they would be guilty of something? That's ultimately the question. why? Why would any of these kids go to sectional school to basically be thought that is wrong, to excel?

Well, I say, I think perhaps a good.

And then as a result, not think for yourself. And then as a result, sign something like this, which is just stupid.

We will continue to discuss this topic, I guess, in the weeks ahead. Again, howler, this conversation was productive for the community, the all in community. I understand that you know, people might have very strong feelings about on us discussing IT, but we're here to discuss difficult topics.

One other aspects that we talk about, which is the larger geopolitical situation right now, things seem very ten. U S. I didn't event with palmer lucky .

actually from the 不 I M fight at loss。

Yeah we we actually had a nice uh debate slash discussion on on ukraine. But the thing that I think we agree with is that the U S. Better bring more innovation in the military military industrial complex and and figure out like procurement because article cost pass system right now is so broken.

There's article recently in the new york times where IT said that the cost united states are producing an artillery ells six thousand dollars for russia at six hundred dollars. So in other words, IT cost the U. S. Ten times what I cost russia preordination shell, even though russia consider to be the super corrupt photography, whether one steals everything. And yet upper criminal system is ten times more time than they don't have competition.

And all the politicians are captured, correct?

We have this cosplay conic system where every year the .

opportunities explain that.

yeah. So in every other part of technology, Price goes down over time, right? You can produce more of something for less.

We've seen this with tesla. We seen IT with PC. We've seen IT with television sets. Whatever IT is, the Price has come over time. Yeah or if the Price is of its because you've develop some family new capability.

new version, more powerful .

exactly faster, you know we're still making the same artillery shells, the same stinger missiles, the same jewels so forth. I don't think the capabilities have changed that much, but the Price goes up every year because is cost plus.

And so explain cost plus .

people be well, most companies sell something a profit. The way that government works is the profit margin is controlled. They're only allowed to market up a certain amount above their cost.

But the thing that happened in the defense industry is there been consolidation over the past couple of decades were now you ve got a handful of defense companies and it's an oligopoly. And many of these key arguments are single source. So there's only one producer and they just keep raising the Price over year. Now one of the kind of crazy things about this is an palmer at this point is is all like anyone is getting rich because I cost plus it's not like the money is basically making these companies .

internally to to lower the Price. If you lower the Price and you're ten percent and you got your six thousand dollars down to four thousand, ten percent of four thousands of less than ten percent of six thousand.

what's happening is not a google like margins. What's happening is that these companies keep building their bureaucracies bigger and bigger. So they hire a lots of staff.

They make a lot of campaign contributions. They fund think tanks. And so their cost structure is keeps going more and more bloated.

Right there is devised to do that. The more they charge, the more they make right now.

Why am I bringing this up? Well, we're in a situation now where israel might be on the precipice of, well, that they declare work in gaza and this thing could spiral to control in the a regional war.

They may be asking for weapons.

So they may be asking for weapons. We've donated some. However, earlier this year, we used to have an ammunition stockpile in israel, the night says, did IT belongs to us, but IT was their potential in case for problem in the region.

And that utility stockpile was easily taken and given to ukraine. And remember, we ran out of the key type of ammunition in the ukraine war, which is one hundred and fifty five million meter, our jewellery shells. That's why we gave them cluster bombs.

So the U. S. Is already dangerously low on ammunition. And that's before we get potentially another war or another front in this larger lobby.

Confidence that happening another countries, more clear. But we have been asked to donate weapons to ukraine and have been asked to donate web. I think israel have asked for weapons. I don't know if they formally asked, but um we are obviously .

think the bill making its way through right now to give some eight military assistance to israel, by the way we had .

israel also was in the builder of of weapons to him. Their drone technology is incredibly we're finding and they sell weapons to russia .

no ah usuals nowhere near at the ukraine situation. Ukraine is one hundred percent dependent on the united states for its military and forth economy. Israel has a viBrant military and economy without the united states, but the united states does make long term security guarantees to israel not to fight its wars.

There's no neutral defense treaty. However, we do agree to provide them with weapons in the event of a war. So we do have obligations like long standing obligations to them.

This is an we have for twenty five years. However, our stockpiles are dangerous ly depleted now because the ukraine war. And on top of that, our procurement system is hopefully broken.

So in a world of rising multipolarity where there are other great powers now in the system where there are going to be more, more global threatens, I don't think we have a uh, a chance of maintaining our global position and supporting our allies unless we fix this. I mean, making our chery shows at ten times more than what a cost. Russia, that's ridiculous.

And so can valley. We have now the funding of military startups and there's a whole new classic warfare. Supersonics drones are the .

only advantage is the one of a .

i'm huge fan of the work he's doing and other entrepreneurs doing to make new weapons to keep us competitive because you can be sure china is making them. And so I think it's absolutely fantastic. I thought I always very weird that google spin of work medals, like google works for google employees, were refusing to provide services like even basic cloud hosting services to the military, that that to benefit from democracy and living in america, while then not supporting the military, just seemed like the ultimate luxury. Believe to use a rob turn from the all in sandwich matthei adults.

what is IT take guys to for this fever to break for, for all of these people to realize that that level of corruption is not sustainable, that these ways of thinking are not sustainable, that is not a have to peace and prosperity, that we actually want excEllence in society. We want people to be outliers. We want the whole of humanity to move forward.

And that's not gonna happen when we move necessarily as one blob. But a few people need to sort of clear the brush and lead the way in. The rest of us will come in and show IT in behind them.

I think the vega is the manifestation of IT. I'll be totally honest, like I think the reason he is going up in the polls and the reason people are drawn to him. Is because he's smart and he's exceptional and he represents one of the great things about americans that there's people who want to win the is t he I I think that's why people are drawn to him.

And I think people are tired of and we are show a complex. They are tired of corruption. They are tired of geriatric, you know, eighty year old politicians. We need Young, successful people to take leadership position.

By the way, I I really agree with what you're saying. I think that there is like excEllence can show itself in different forms. I think why obama was so profound and joe rogan said this was he was such a statesman he was the best of us but he demonstrated excEllence in being composed and measured and boatful and strategic.

He was just so excEllent um the value as well, clinton as well. Clinton was incredibly steped in policy. He was excEllent.

He was intellectual, a massive outlier. Obama is an intellectual outlier. Viva is an intellectual outlier. Let's get these people to change and run our system of government, please. I think we're soaking in IT.

Yeah we need some or more capable people. I mean, you look at bite. And when he gave that speech um in support of israel, I mean a lot of the words are right but he was like slowing ing his way through .

I did IT is his best speech and IT was concerning the fact that he's clearly in cognitive the plan you can see IT in his ability to air IT and you know IT his best speech and he was also troubling for me as somebody who voted for him to watch him slow as words or just not use clear. He wasn't all there. And you like cheese.

What are we showing to the world if this is the guy who's running the country? And if we reelect now we're saying we we want to have an eighty four year old running the country who's not all there and is encoding clastic. I retire. Let them to spend time at the time.

I think it's more people who are willing to vote for not for what they want, but to prevent something else. And I think that that's that's what's so tragic about how we're thinking is a country right now.

Yeah I just just a dished out equally I may I saw trump give A A recent speech where lucky is nowhere near the cognitive decline of by then I think he's still complimented, but he saw not a sharpest he used to be either. I mean, listen, I think america's basic situation, and this has really been reaffirmed over the past week, is that we're no longer you you a polarity anymore.

We are no longer the sole superpower yeah now for some time, china is now a superpower. They're probably the low cost manufactured the words. So when we talk about being about to make things like arms, artillery shells and weapons, they have the ability to produce us.

That is very scary. There are other great powers in the system. Now russia has proven over the last five months through his Victory and discounter enerve, that IT is a power to be reckoned with.

We cannot disregard their concerns anymore. And not only does amErica need, I think, top flight leaders like intellectually who are at the top of their game, but we also need new thinking. We need to go to side step chAllenges in, and conflicts are supposed to walking into every single trap, the way that lds to gram ones to. Again, i'll go back on the ukraine war, I think is really clear that we could have avoided that war if we had taken nato expansion of the table. And whether you believe that or not, IT was criminal not to try.

If IT was a five percent chance, I was worth trying.

So I know in the situation, were already mired in the ukraine proxy war. Now israel on the brink. We need smarter people, smarter thinking.

In washington, we are no longer the only superpower. We're going to a really tough time in a multiple lar world. If we do not look for ways to the estate conflict when we can.

or in putting a side conflict, why are we not building deep ties with as many countries as possible, deep cultural ties, deep economic ties, deep diplomatic ties? Every time we are in dialogue with the country and we're building a relationship with that country, that means free people of the world are winning you in. Every time we isolate a country that does .

not go the that's another big part problem yeah and so you .

know it's the Normalization of relationships and the deepening of relationships that is the higher bit and you need somebody in office who can do that. And you know if you look at how the beat the hawks in the G O P. Or the hawks in the democratic party think, they think that we have to be at war with everybody.

They think we have to isolate everybody. You know, the fact trump went and that famous moment where he walked over the in the dmz in north korea and was talking to kim jung, that moment you see on kim jung land's face, we can put IT in here. He is so happy to be recognized and he has a shock .

look on his face like, I can't believe this is happening right the same way he didn't finish was like a fan meeting Taylor swift. If you look at these ideas and you compare to this is the same. And in culture is our export.

And I know this about jamal. I can all be hard power because other countries have IT too now. So we have to work in our soft power, but you not can enhance american soft power with all this belga ant retorting, really this omi directional bligny that's coming out of washington.

And this is why I think the smart thing for blinkin to do, or the by administration, is, yes, you reform that. You stand with israel in the face of this and speaking able atossa at the same time. And you have to do this right now because is a little bit tough to do right now. But I was hundred .

two .

ah you have to reaffirm your support for the two state solution order.

By the way, I think I think tony is done a really good job. But again, at the end of the day, tony works for president biden. It's like biden hasn't been nearly as definitive tive as he could have been and tony had to clean them up.

So one example of this is like in the wall street journal, they immediately on sunday, I went to blaming iran, right? And then both the israeli military intelligence and american intelligence, they had to do an entire press circuit to try to disarm this in the way that was not seen in a long time. And you have to ask yourself, why? Why is that even happening? And it's like, well, whatever a special interest wanted to get that on the front page of the walls journal was able to do IT.

But IT has dangerous implications. And then what you need is a really strong leader that can supplement to say, this is false. This is not happening.

This is what we need. You needed an obama in that situation. And I think that this is a or clinton.

reagan and and I think .

that this is an opportunity for us to ask ourselves, okay, who is the most dynamic, excEllent candidate that can give us this and be open minded and not make this line about republican versus democrat right now. Because the world is getting super complicated. We need someone hyper, hyper excEllent and intellectual competent.

Well, I will say this for for trump is that um he is only president in recent memory who didn't give us some new wars.

I think he .

has A T despite all of his issues. I think he has a unique ability to project strength to the american public while not being one of the super hawks. She's actually, I say, relatively dovish.

He he actually walked through his secret plan. He he said, I can't member word this lip but he said, whenever he melt with these folks, he basically left to ten percent chance that he would knew him. That's what he said. And he turned out that five, ten percent was just enough for the, for everybody, everybody just in time. I see.

I think the U. S. Already has enough deterrence. I think we've still detour. I think the thing that was smart about trump was that he was going to do business, yes, he was going to negotiate, and he didn't feel the need to make the moral condemnations all the time. He was willing to meet with kim jong on.

He was willing to meet with putin in and season paying, and he avoided a criticizing them personally. He didn't call them dictators. He talked about how smart they are. Yeah, it's the art of the deal, right? I mean, at the end of the day, he's looking to do business and we need a little bit more of that. And I think this is why your crucial is successful, is he went in there with the minds of a businessman yeah, how do we find something that's beneficial to both sides totally?

I think that when trump was elected, I was told that I was the end of the world, and that's what I thought. And i'd already underwritten him as an f okay. And then four years into the presidency, he was probably like a see in my mind.

And then as I get a little bit of distance where realized, no, hold on a second, this guy was like, A B, B plus, like he was pretty good. And unfortunately, the few things that if he, if he could have just pushed ed through would have really saved america. The biggest one being these hundred year bonds IT IT.

Would have kept amErica from getting to the prospers of fiscal ruin. And we'd been a highly different situation. And i'm not sure we could have ever given him credit for IT. But the further and further I get away from him and the less emotional I am, he did a pretty good job. He was a pretty good president.

Don't forget that he tried to overturn the and steal .

the early clinton. I voted for jobim, but this is the honest assessment, the guy he did for the things that he was supposed to do a good job, and for where every other president found a way to, Frankly, make our situation a little bit worse, specifically around wars. He did not do that. And that is a, he is accomplishment that I think needs .

to be acknowledge. And he would have ripped up the constitution and taken presidents and stolen IT. So just give that .

in mind as well. Less we get him. That's why he's, why he's not a name is A B, B plus j.

You have to met. If I went for the black sound of coffee, he would have been reelected. In a land side.

It's quite possible he would have been reelected. I mean, I and also.

yeah the way great the way things are going in this country right now, both economically and internationally. He's gonna watch in the White house, he said to spend all his time in the next year and in the courthouse ses. Battling all these lawsuits, the lawfare against him, he's, I can build campaign, and I want to have a matter because you are gonna so done with this.

Nobody wants him as president again. So I think that nobody wants that. Everybody wants new choices. Everybody, if you do not want to hear us talk about complex issues in the world, you can unscrew from the we're going to be here every week having hard discussions, listening to each other and learning together. Uh, you don't have to agree with any one of us, uh, but we are um we are happy to have the difficult conversations and learn every week here and yeah our thoughts and prayers go out to the families and the friends of those impacted by this heinous terrorist attack and I I don't know anybody hesitation they are closing reMarks here but obviously we're heartbroken and and we hope that peace prevails and that the hostages are released as quickly as possible.

said, all right.

everybody, this is episode one forty nine of the all in pocket next week. Well, we'll talk about all the different topics but for this week.

we're onna.

Let IT sit where IT is right now. See next time. bye.