4. A Lieutenant-Colonel's frontline reality
58:46 Share

Hello and welcome to the Battleground Ukraine podcast with me, Saul David, and Patrick Bishop. This week we'll be hearing from a remarkable man. Pavlo Kazan is an environmental scientist from the Dnipro region of eastern Ukraine.

But he's also a reserve officer, a lieutenant colonel who is in the thick of the current conflict, commanding C4 operations. That is command, control, communications and computer activities. Well, that's obviously a very important area of the conflict.

And Pavlov's received multiple declarations for his service. He's in a great position to provide some real insights into what's going on as Ukraine gears up to start clawing back some of the territory it's lost to Russia. So this is what he had to say when Saul and I spoke to him at Dnipro, where he was enjoying a few days leave from the front line.

What were you doing in civilian life before the war broke out in 2014? My civilian life was mostly connected with the environment. Being an environmental engineer, I've been organizing many different projects. I'm also doing some environmental science on renewable energy, sustainable development projects.

and some other environmental projects and also work in science. And I'm an electrical engineer by training with a PhD in statistics. So I also use my time for science. So I didn't expect that I will go to the war.

No. Okay. So in 2014, what was your military role when the war began, or at least when you got involved in it? When the war began, I came to the war in June of 2014. And because I graduated from the university, I had officer's rank. I was lieutenant. And I came to the war

as an expert on communications, as a Signal Corps officer. And my first job there was installing of radio communications. We have been installing radio

cryptic digital radio for Ukrainian army because at the beginning of the war our army was in the very very poor conditions and it was a really very really big problem that we used the old-fashioned analog radio and it caused a lot of problems because our enemies

have been listening to our voices, and that is why we needed to organise this encrypted digital communication. Have you been demobilised at any time? Did you go back to civilian life, Colonel, or have you been in uniform? You did. I was in the war in 2014 until 2015. Then I served from 2017 until 2020.

And I demobilized in 2020 as a commander of C4SR group in anti-terroristic operation and joint forces operation. And I didn't expect that I will come back to army. Yeah. And so then I mobilized in February on the day after the big invasion.

I was in Kiev, I came to Dnipro back home and on the next day I came to a mobilization point and I've been mobilized. We have a reserve major, so it was my duty and it was no any discussion if I need to be mobilized and we communicated with my friends and we mobilized with my very close friend Max and joined the army again.

Okay. And could you tell us a little bit about your role and how it's changed over the last few months, if it has changed? My role is I'm C4 ISR Group Commander.

And I have a unit which is doing a different kind of communication. It's the part of C4, which means command, control, computing communications. And also the different part of intelligence. It's intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. And we're using UAVs for our work.

We're using different tools for electronic warfare and to support, to have this electronic support to our UAV and this kind of intelligence. And we're using also different equipment, high technological equipment for doing investigation and to optimize the

the army management, the different programs who optimize the army management and who give us the clear and online picture on the front line. Yeah. If I understand this correctly, Karel, you're doing two things, really. You're maximizing your own communication security, but you're also breaking in to Russian communications and building up a network

rich intelligence picture of what they're up to. Is that correct? Yes, yes, you're right. And also our role is the correction of artillery fire because we have very good high technological UAVs

and one of my units doing this correction of artillery fire. So you're basically artillery spotting using high-tech devices to actually map the fall of fire, is that it? And if that's so, how do you actually do that? How do you actually monitor where the shells are falling?

We're using UAVs. We have good copters. Can you explain what that is for our listeners? UAVs are drones. They're planes without pilots. Unmanned aerial vehicles. Yes, yes. And we're using them on the front line, going to the territory which is controlled by our enemies. Ukrainian territory, but unfortunately controlled by our enemies.

And we are investigating their equipment and we communicate and we are in close collaboration with artillery units and we're making this correction of artillery fire.

This is very effective for them because we need these eyes in the sky. Even if they have very precise instruments, they need to correct this fire and they need to understand if they touch it.

Yeah, I mean, we've been hearing a lot about the importance of artillery fire in this conflict, obviously, on both sides. We've also been reading and have seen a lot of reports about how the West is providing increasingly sophisticated equipment to Ukraine. How much difference has that made to the war effort?

Yes, indeed. It's really very big support with artillery tools. And it's really changed the scenario of this war. Because first of all, it's 777 long range artillery. Yeah, yeah. Long range artillery. 155 millimeter, I think, is it? Yes, yes, yes, yes. You're right. And this 777 cannons are really very effective.

The only problem with this equipment is that we didn't receive computers for them. So up to now, our colleagues regulate and tune these cannons with the help of hand regulators.

Is that on the way? Is the computer backup on the way now? The software coming for you to make it even more? We do hope, but I don't know exactly. So this is the only problem. But for other tools, it is really very good artillery.

And our artillery units, our officers and soldiers, very quickly trained. And they're using them very, very good. And I very much appreciate it to them because we have very good collaboration. And also these other units like Susanna and some...

units with the same caliber, they're also very good. And this is what we need. We need much more. It sounds to me as if you got that in terms of the actual quality of the soldiers on the Ukrainian side, you got highly skilled, highly trained soldiers.

people to draw on whose expertise can be applied in a military way, whereas the Russians perhaps have not got that degree of competence. Would you say that was a fair assessment?

Yes, yes. We've also heard a fair bit about the multiple rocket systems that have been coming over to Ukraine. HIMARS, ATACMS version of the rocket, which can apparently fire up to 300 kilometers. This sounds to us on the sidelines to be a real big game changer for Ukrainian capability. Talking about HIMARS, it's really a very huge tool. And again, we need many more of HIMARS.

This is only I can say because this is for now, this is the, I think this is the best tool, which artillery tool, what we have in the war. And what we can see, they targeted very precise and very effective. We have as many as HIMARS. I think we will...

very much changed the scenario of the war. Okay. We're reading about a lot of strikes quite deep into Russian territory, or at least Russian-held territory, I should say, Colonel, in particular in the Crimea. There's a lot of speculation in the West as to what is causing those strikes. Is it special forces? Is it partisans? Is it long-range rocket fire? Can you give us any insight into what might be doing that?

We don't know exactly, of course. But of course, our armed forces are working on the very high level of professionalism. And sometimes it's rockets, sometimes it's some special operations on the territories which are now currently controlled by Russians. And of course, these news very much inspire us.

because we would like to release our territories as soon as possible, but we understand that our enemy, Russians, they have a lot of equipment, a lot of weapons.

And that is why we even don't know how much capacity they have. I think that the intelligence of NATO doesn't know how many cannons or tanks or aircrafts Russians have. But I do believe that the high level of technology and our collaboration with NATO

NATO give us this victory as soon as possible. We're reading a lot of reports and it's coming out from the Ukrainian government that there might be a big counter-offensive, possibly in the Kherson area, in the immediate future. Is that the sort of indication you're getting? Okay, we have the three main directions. It's Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv.

And of course, it is very difficult to say what direction is most important for Ukraine because it's all territories of Ukraine and we need to release them.

At the same time, we understand that the territory of Kherson area is the sea territory. And this is an important strategic area for Russians because they plan to invade this territory and up to Odessa, to invade all the territory close to the sea.

Because of that, of course, we need to look on Kherson direction as the very important priority. And at the same time, Russians now increasing their forces on Kherson territory. And what we can see that they increasing electronic warfare forces. And this is very, very bright indicator

that they increase in other forces. Like, for example, on Kharkiv direction is a very difficult direction concerning this electronic warfare.

That is why, of course, yes, I also looked on media and our government says about this Ukrainian activity on this direction. But we will see. I do believe that it's possible. But when and how, I don't know.

I can see from your biography, Colonel, that you have been decorated a number of times. You've been honoured with various awards, including the Order of Merit Third Class, the Joint Forces Cross First Class and the Armed Forces Badge of Honour. Can you tell us what those awards were for?

It was our job, just our job on the war. This is what we have to do. But because and of course, this is the team war. OK, you're being very modest, I can see. But like any good commander, you're sharing the credit around to your whole team. Do you believe, Colonel, that Ukraine will eventually win the war in the sense that it will recover all its lost territory? And if so, when might that happen?

Of course, we do believe that we win war. Otherwise, it is impossible to fight.

And I believe that this is the only way for us, and this is the only way for us as a civilized society. Because this war is not just a war between Russia and Ukraine. And I don't like to say that Russian-Ukrainian war, because this is Russian war on Ukrainian territory. And this Russian war against all countries.

all European countries, all civilized world. And that is why it is really pivotal moment of the democracy as at all, because it is very good test for democracy. It is very good indicator

which countries, which politicians, what people and how people doing as a response on this invasion, as a response on invasion of Ukraine, but in fact is an invasion of the human lives, the world system, which was organized since Second World War.

and destroying territories, destroying everything, killing people. And that is why I believe that this is the only way to win and to win in close collaboration with our partners from other countries. And when we win, it's a very good question. I think this active phase of the war will be during the year, I guess.

When we have this point of very fast changing scenario, I think when Russia and Russian government will understand

that we will win and we'll try to go to some negotiations. But I think it's no negotiations with terrorists and Russia now is a terroristic country. And it's also important to say that this is not only the responsibility of Putin or Russian government, this is also the responsibility of the Russian wider public, of Russian citizens. And that is why it is important

to send messages to citizens, like some countries say that Russian citizens will not come or they proposed to close the European Union for them.

And of course, it's very important to send messages to Russian people because they are responsible for this war. On that subject, Colonel, you're Jewish. What does it feel like to be told that you are part of a Nazi regime? It must be very, very strange to have this propaganda directed at you personally.

Of course, you know, I'm from Jewish family and my grandfather Boris was officer on the Second World War and another grandfather Gregory was officer during Second World War. So and for my family, it's absolutely normal that myself came to the war. I have all the son who also now in the army.

And talking about this propaganda, of course, the Russian propaganda is really huge. And they have a very huge and very long tradition of propaganda in Russia and Soviet Union.

They're very professional. They're very high level in this brutal and black propaganda. And that is why this propaganda could be about everything. And also this part of propaganda about nationalism or Nazism or fascism or something else, I think this is because they make this propaganda

as stupid as possible, as unbelievable as possible. And because of these tools, they try to manage and to influence on the brains of people. And unfortunately, this propaganda works. And not only in Ukraine,

in different countries, because Russia has very big resources, very huge media resources, and not only media, but also networks, peoples, politicians, organizations. And that is why it's also very important

for our Western society to respond to this propaganda and to respond professionally, to respond on different levels, not only on political level, but this propaganda also they're using in different sphere of life, in music.

in literature, in non-governmental, in public activity. And that is why it is important to define what propaganda is and if it is propaganda against Ukrainians or other nations.

and to stop this propaganda, to filter it. You're a scientist. Can you tell us what are the environmental consequences of the ongoing war, but particularly with regard to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station? This is a very important question, especially for me, because I am an organizer and creator of environmental monitoring system for my region.

And we investigated a lot on the consequences of the war. And especially now, after the big invasion to Ukraine, we already have very bad consequences

on landscapes, and we have also a lot of chemicals, the chemical influence on our lands. But the most dangerous, what could be, is the NPP, Zaporizhzhia NPP, nuclear power plant. And

This is a really hot spot of Ukrainian war. And it is very important to defend it, to keep it, because otherwise it will be the hugest and even impossible consequences, not only for Ukraine, but for Europe as well. And I think

We will need a lot of resources and a lot of support to clean our territory and even to analyze these consequences, to monitor these consequences.

because we hadn't such a huge war for a very long time on our territories. And we need to optimize a lot of scientific resources to analyze it. But Ukraine, before the war, Ukraine has many environmental challenges.

And having this heavy industry, metallurgical, cacao and chemical industries and machinery, we have a lot of pollution, the air pollution, water pollution. And this is what we have been investigating during a very long time. And after the war, it will be a lot of investigation, I guess.

You've spoken very eloquently, Colonel, about the consequences of the war for Europe and

as a whole and not just Ukraine. Do you have a message for those listeners in the West who might argue, as some we suspect will as winter approaches and the high gas and electricity prices mean that everyone is feeling a bit of pain, nothing, of course, compared to what's going on in Ukraine. Do you have any message for those people who would suggest that it's better to end this war sooner rather than later by a negotiated peace that would not be

results in our estimation and in yours in a victory for Ukraine.

Yes, sure. I have a message. And first of all, we need to understand that this war is not just against Ukrainians. And this war is not just a war on East Ukraine. This is very important to understand for European people that we are the one society. And the people

price of this war and the price of this fuel or electricity human lives and how many children women people

soldiers been killed by Russia in Ukraine and how many homes been destroyed. Some cities like Mariupol completely destroyed by Russia. We have partly destroyed Kharkiv and other cities.

And this is important that it's, of course, I believe it's difficult to understand maybe for people living somewhere in Western Europe, but it's necessary to look on these pictures, to look on video and to understand that

we will pay very high price and the price will be much more higher if they will not win and if we will go on some peaceful negotiations. Because the enemy, Russia, is the enemy of the world. Russia is the enemy of civilized world, of civilized system, what we have now.

And of course, Western society has enough resources, and it is very important to cover these resources, to use these resources.

for the victory, because this is a milestone of democracy. And now we will test if we can protect democracy, if we can protect human lives, rule of law, social justice, but otherwise we don't need our constitutions and international law and all rules which we developed since the Second World War.

Well, that was an incredibly moving and revealing interview. We'll be back in a few minutes after the break to unpick some of the Colonel's many fascinating points. Talk to you then. Welcome back. Well, we promised when we launched this podcast to bring voices and expertise from the front line, and Colonel Kazan has certainly provided us with that. What struck me immediately, Saul, was his confidence. Despite what a lot of commentators are saying, including our guest last week, Professor Orlando Figes,

who's quite pessimistic about the outcome. He believes that war, the war can and will be won in the sense of driving, uh,

all Russian forces from occupied territory, but provided that Ukraine gets the help it needs from the West. Yes, he did say that. He made the point that what would be the reason, what would be the motivation for Ukrainians like him fighting, for civilians turned soldiers like him fighting, if they didn't believe in ultimate victory. And he made it clear, I thought, particularly towards the end,

in the most eloquent way, just what is at stake here. Not just a war between Russia and Ukraine, but a war between Russia and the civilized world that is being fought on Ukrainian territory. Almost a proxy war that we all should have an interest in. Yeah, I think that was very, he put that very succinctly and well. And, you know, that underpins everything.

the view that he expressed that there can't be a negotiated settlement. Any negotiation would be effectively a victory for Putin and for Russia. And then we've got a kind of parallel with the Second World War, where it was decided at the summit at Casablanca that the

the outcome had to be absolute. The terms were unconditional surrender, no negotiating with Hitler and his regime, no compromises, no trade-offs, nothing. It had to end in utter defeat. Now, clearly, that's not the view among the NATO powers. So, you know, that's a huge kind of mismatch between Western war aims, Allied war aims,

and Ukrainian war aims. Yeah, he made the point very strongly, I thought, that, of course, if you don't show Russia the error of his ways, in other words, it has to lose this war, it has to feel the pain of this type of aggression, then, of course, it can be repeated. He feels that Ukraine's ultimate victory is vital. And at least the indications we're getting, not just from him, but, of course, from the statements from Ukraine,

right up to the top of government, President Zelensky, is that there aren't any signs of internal dissent from this, that the Ukrainian people, or at least the pro-government Ukrainians, are absolutely in line and determined to keep going until they've got back what they say is rightfully theirs. And that's all the territory that was Ukrainian before 2014. Yeah, I think that sort of really holds President Zelensky and his government to that pledge. I think...

having convinced the people that that is what they should be aiming at, I think it'd be very, very hard for him and his government to deviate from that line now. So they're set on a course which is, you know, despite the optimism, more less engaged people like Faij's last week are pointing out all the difficulties in actually achieving that end.

Something else that struck me in what he said was, again, another parallel with World War II. He was pretty explicit about holding the whole Russian people responsible for what's going on, not just the Putin regime, just as the Germans at large were held responsible for Nazism. And that enabled the British war leadership to sell Russia.

the bombing of German cities, the strategic bombing campaign as morally defensible. I mean, the fiction was created that they were aiming at military targets, at German war industry, etc. But I think pretty soon everyone could guess what the reality was. But I was struck, you know, what we're really struggling to do, Saul, is...

everyone that is, is to find out what's going on in the mind of your ordinary Russian. But I did see something, a fascinating clip of an old woman. We know a bit about what the intelligentsia and Petersburg and Moscow might be thinking or not thinking. But what we don't know is what the great mass of the population are thinking. We got a little insight of that in a clip that was aired last week of an old woman in an unnamed village somewhere in Russia who

in sort of deep rural Russia that could have come straight out of a Turgenev novel, wooden houses with these sort of wonderful, simple ornamentation, chickens running around. Now, she spoke simply but eloquently again about what was going on. She didn't blame Putin for the war, but the West, not the Ukrainians, but the West, who she said were always grinding us under their heels.

But nonetheless, she wasn't happy about the war. And she kept shaking her head as she sort of talked about all the young men, the husbands and sons of the village and surrounding villages who were disappearing to go off and fight this war. Yes. And of course, so powerful is Russian propaganda, particularly control of state television, that even people in these far-flung villages are getting fed a line that they will probably only begin to

roll back from, Patrick, when they see the actual evidence of the war, the effect it's going to have, these young men either not coming back or coming back in body bags. So we'll have to wait and see the extent to which Russian public opinion will gradually change as the effect's

begin to be felt by the whole population. Um, I was fascinated one particular area where we, we both felt the Colonel was less forthcoming was on the progress of the much heralded big push, the counter offensive. And of course it was quite understandable when he spoke to us, uh,

that he didn't want to give the game away. It took me back to some of our Falklands podcast, Patrick, where, of course, the press were giving out information that was actually of British attacks. It was very useful to the Argentinians. So he was very careful not to do that. And yet he must have known, given his position of responsibility, that actually what's now happened this week was literally about to begin within a few hours.

actually, of us speaking to him. And that, of course, is the push, particularly around the city of Curzon area. Yeah. On that, going back to the Falklands thing, of course,

When the Argentinians heard on the BBC that the paras were about to attack Goose Green, they automatically assumed it was disinformation. So maybe it is that it cuts both ways. But there we are. One thing he did sort of say was that, you know, clearly the focus is on Kherson for the reason that it has immense strategic value to the Russian war aim of occupying the entire Black Sea coast area.

down to Odessa. Now, something clearly, you know, something has started. And there was a bit of a kind of, you know, announcement that, that, okay, what we've been predicting for so long is now underway. A spokesman in the Kherson area, Ukrainian government spokesman called Sergei Klann,

said that what he called the de-occupation of the Kherson area had begun, starting with full-scale artillery barrages of the entire Kherson area. And he mentioned that troops were falling back, not Russian army troops per se, but Ukrainian separatist units that had been

fighting alongside them. Yeah, it's a very fast moving situation. I mean, we know that the preparation was quite long and methodical for this using their new long range artillery. The Ukrainians were destroying bridges at the back of these Russian and Russian separatist

that is the Dnipro River. And of course, this means in effect they're cut off from supplies, from resupply, in particular in the city of Kherson. So if for any reason there is a major breakthrough there, and we'll talk a little bit about the early advances of the Ukrainians in a second, it's going to mean that these Russian troops have got two options, as is being pointed out to them, by the way, by Zelensky and others, that is to surrender or try and swim the...

river. And that is not a, a happy circumstance in any, uh,

Interesting enough, we've talked a bit about Stalingrad before. It reminds me very much of the situation in Stalingrad where the then Russians, who, of course, were defending Stalingrad, were using the river as a, you know, a NERPLU ultra line. We cannot withdraw back from this. And so in some senses, that is a Russian tactic, isn't it? You allow your troops to realize there is no retreat from here.

Yeah, it'd be a very Russian way of doing things. One does wonder about the effects on morale. We reported previously that the command and control centers had retreated east of the eastern bank of the Dnipro. So that's

That can't actually boost morale if you're the troops left behind. OK, it might stiffen your resolve, but it doesn't actually make you feel very fondly about the people who are issuing the orders. And of course, you know, the situation is getting worse and worse. The three bridges, three key bridges across the Dnipro have already been damaged to the point where they couldn't carry heavy traffic. Pontoon bridges were thrown across the river. They come under artillery fire immediately.

And even the actual kit, the ammunition and everything that's getting to them is depleted because apparently there's been a very effective artillery strikes on, we hear, 10 ammunition dumps in the area, major ammunition dumps have been struck.

Yeah, and there are fascinating reports of actual fighting in the city of Kherson. Now, you can probably assume that's not regular Ukrainian troops, but it is almost certainly either special forces and or partisans who are operating behind the lines, as we talked about last week. There's been increased evidence of this and they are attacking Kherson.

the Russians effectively, you know, from the rear. I mean, it's one of the nightmare scenarios you've got in any military conflict where you've got the enemy effectively on your doorstep, which is what they seem to have in Kherson at the moment. At the same time, four villages on the outskirts

At the same time, four villages on the outskirts of Kherson seem to have been taken by Ukrainian forces. And President Zelensky, in particularly ominous tones, has warned Russians in the region to either flee or surrender if they want to live. The actual quote was, go home. And if you are afraid to go home to Russia, then such occupiers should give themselves up. And it's interesting that point about being afraid, because, unfortunately,

of course the consequences of fighting an authoritarian uh army uh such as the russian army is at the moment uh not doing your job uh surrendering giving yourself up uh retreating are probably quite severe they certainly were in the second world war and you suspect they will be still today yeah yeah that's very it's good messaging as always from zelensky um

He sows these seeds, which kind of paint the picture much more effectively of what life is like in Russia and what is the nature of the regime they're fighting.

than, you know, sort of more kind of obvious and sort of bombastic rhetoric. So, as always, he's playing a blinder. But we still, you know, it's interesting that given that media are still in Russia, there are still lots of Western media operations there. We still, you know, we come back to this thing, we don't really know what's going on.

we're hearing reports that there are difficulties. You always have to kind of take them with a bit of a pinch of salt. But, you know, I think a lot of it is credible because of the, it's just sort of common sense. And we're getting reports of difficulties raising fresh troops. They're now having to offer bonuses to people to sign on. There's even stories of prisoners, even murderers being offered parole if they go off.

to the front lines and uh again in this rather kind of you know haphazard straw clutching way any images of Putin are subjected to uh close scrutiny and there was another one the other day uh you know looking for signs of his health or ill health there was a weird one the other day of Putin talking to the commander of the Russian National Guard the Ross roskvardia

That's the internal security force set up by Putin to ensure the safety of the regime from its internal enemies, i.e. its own people, potentially. And it's meant to be separate from the army, but some of the men, there are about 340,000 in the whole unit. Some of them have been sent off to Ukraine where they're fighting and dying. Incidentally, they're the ones who are occupying the Zoryzhin.

nuclear power plant, which we'll be talking about a bit later. Anyway, in this clip, you've got the commander who's called Viktor Solotov, who bears an uncanny resemblance. I couldn't help noticing to Paul Whitehouse.

And he's seen sitting there talking to Putin and explaining to him the duties of the Roskladia, which is strange given that Putin actually set the thing up himself. And he's telling, he's reassuring the president that the Ukrainians have welcomed his men with open arms and Putin seen gripping the side of the desk. According to, I think, the rather optimistic analysis that he's trying to control shaking, uncontrollable shaking resulting from Russia.

Parkinson's disease. I don't know what to make of that wishful thinking, I think. Yeah, a wishful thinking. But it is absolutely remarkable, the Russian propaganda. I mean, it's almost as if they've said, you know this is white and we're going to tell you it's black. And it's this sort of attempt to cast doubt on almost any information you're getting. Therefore, nothing's entirely believable. I thought it was very interesting, Colonel Kazan's observation, that Russian propaganda is deliberately stupid.

and as unbelievable as possible. It's not intended to convince, but to undermine, as I've suggested, the notion of objective truth. Well, that's the whole point of a podcast like this. It's our job to try and correct that balance.

Okay, well, roger that. Now, let's talk about something very much in the news, Zaporizhia. This nuclear watchdog team is on its way to inspect the plant. It might even get here today on the day that we're making our podcast.

It's not there yet as of this morning and the reports that it's being deliberately held up by the Russians were shelling its route. They've kind of apparently trying to force the team to travel through Russian controlled territory in Crimea and the Donbass region. Now, when they get there, they're going to make the first independent move.

assessment of how dangerous the situation really is and perhaps start the, well, it does seem, you know, all the information we're getting, the satellite imagery and all the rest of it, does suggest it's a very, very perilous

The situation there at the moment, the fires are raging from brush fires that have been caused by the shelling. There's clear signs of damage to the plant itself from the shelling. So what happens next will be a very nail-biting passage, I think.

Yeah, incredibly concerning. And again, Colonel Kazan talked about the potential environmental catastrophe of the war, not just a potential nuclear catastrophe, but just the sheer effect this war is having on Ukraine, the enormous amount of money and, of course, time it's going to take to clear the whole thing up. And that's if it stopped today. And of course, you know, we suspect it will drag on for a fair bit longer. We'll have to wait and see how this counteroffensive goes. But it's

It's absolutely heartbreaking to see the situation there, to see the amount of ordnance that's being dropped over the country of Ukraine, to see the destruction of property and, of course, lives. You know, let's not forget, Patrick, at least 5,000 Ukrainian civilians have lost their lives and up to 1,000 children. Just think about that for a moment.

And Colonel Kazan made the point, very moving and powerful point, I felt, that what we're paying in increased energy prices in the West, they're paying with blood. And just imagine your own family, your own children being caught up in that.

Yeah, it does. It really is. It's heartbreaking. And I think the longer it goes on, the further we move away from that central truth. And I think it's very important that we always bear that in mind. He said it's killing. It's about killing, essentially. And OK, the environment's getting...

and entire cities, like you said, like Mariupol has kind of been wiped from the face of the earth, practically, apart from a pile of smoke and rubble. But at the end of the day, it's those human lives and those innocent lives that really break your heart. Now, on another subject, Saul, these partisan operations that we've been going on about, they seem to have been

carrying on with a lot of success, taking various collaborators are now being targeted and taken out. What do you make of that? Yeah, it's absolutely fascinating, isn't it? You know, I mentioned the danger, of course, to regular forces that partisans represent. Germans had a lot of trouble with the partisans in the Second World War, and they

dealt with them, or at least attempted to deal with them in an utterly ruthless fashion. But what we're seeing in Ukraine is a series of spectacular hits, as you've suggested, the taking out of collaborators. I mean, it's interesting, it was a big reaction in France at the end of the Second World War against collaborators, but not generally speaking, while the war was underway. And it's an incredibly brave thing to do, to come out of

hiding as a civilian and actually tackle one of the people that you think are shoring up the occupying regime. And what we've had in recent times are a number of successes. And the latest is Oleksii Kovalov, who sounds to me like an ethnic Russian, who was a senior agricultural official in the Kherson area, who was shot dead with a pump-action shotgun at his home on Sunday. And his wife or girlfriend, the reports conflict,

was also killed. She was stabbed and later died of her wounds. I mean, we're not celebrating in any way these murders, but you do have to applaud the effectiveness of these partisans in carrying out these sort of behind the lines actions. Yeah, there's another, you know, from their point of view, a big success the other day, I think it was 11th of August, when Asghar Laishaev, who's

An intelligence chief, I mean, he's formerly with the Ukrainian Security Service, the SBU, but he defected to the Russians some time ago. And he was caught in a car bomb, which exploded while he was driving along the street. It was all...

captured on CCTV footage. You can look it up on YouTube. It is quite amazing. It's just driving along, then wham, the thing goes up in a fireball. You can see people scattering, people just strolling along the pavement suddenly realising what's going on, scattering.

And amazingly, he actually survived that attack and died in hospital a little later on. But it's impressive, you know, not just for the fact that it's happening, that they've got the will to carry out these attacks, but it's also these people, one would imagine, have very high levels of security, people, you know, detailed to protect them, and yet they're still getting killed. Now, you mentioned France. And, you know, if you think about it, the French were...

Under the jackboot, but it took them a long long time before they actually started turning on their own people Who were collaborating with the occupiers? And it wasn't really until the war was almost over the war in France was almost over until they started seeking to extract any sort of revenge and even then a lot of the collaborators made it into peacetime and had flourishing careers thereafter and

Yeah, but what we're beginning to see, particularly in Kherson itself, is the consequence of this partisan activity. I mean, there's a lovely bit on social media recently of Kirill Stremesov, who's the Russian-installed deputy leader of Kherson, actually broadcasting from Verona,

In Russia, that's 120 miles from the Ukrainian border. Now, he didn't admit he was broadcasting from there, doing his little pep talk videos, but social media followers noticed that in the background, there was definitely the very distinctive cathedral in Veronese.

And what conclusion can you draw from that? Well, he's in fear of his own life. So while on the one hand, he's telling the Russian news agency TASS that everything is under control, he clearly doesn't believe that. Otherwise, why would he have left Kherson? Yeah, again, it falls into that category of, you know, telling you black is white.

Now, the Russian response to the counteroffensive, you know, it's a bit very hard to read. They've been launching missile strikes on Kharkiv, which have killed at least nine people. One of the missiles hit an empty nursery school. So clearly, this is not really a serious military operation. It's a terror operation. It's meant to just kill.

make people feel insecure, disrupt the life of the city, etc. So far, this hasn't worked anywhere. It's been tried in terms of firing back into Ukrainian territory proper in a way that's not part of a sort of attempt to actually capture that territory. So it seems to be more a kind of act of frustration rather than a serious operation of war.

We also know, Patrick, don't we, from the Second World War, that an attempt to terrorise a civilian population with the use of ordnance in the case of the Second World War, that's bomber command, doesn't actually work. It was most effective when it was targeting military installations and industrial complexes. And as soon as it went into the area bombing idea that you can break German morale, that clearly didn't happen. So

Not only is it lashing out in a kind of blind and brutal way, it's also ineffective. But clearly the lessons of history don't seem to have been learned. No, absolutely. So I don't think that will stop the Russians. I think we'll see this from time to time.

Now, let's get back into something we haven't gone into too much, but I've mentioned from time to time, that sanctions what effect they are having on Russia. There's been completely contradictory interpretations. I think one is a kind of rather pessimistic view that

the sanctions are doing nothing at all and that Russia is actually making more money from its oil and gas sales than it was before the war because of the price hike and it's found new customers in China and India, et cetera. But then you get a completely opposite view, which I think is probably on the balance a bit more credible, um,

Well, sure, they may be making this money, but it's not the whole picture by any means. And a recent World Bank report noted that the Russian economy is going to shrink by over 11% this year as trade declines and inflation soars. It's on its way to 22% at the moment. And of course, down the road, looking ahead a year or two, there are lots of questions about how the energy and manufacturing sectors will survive. So,

The picture seems to be sanctions may be taking their time, but they are working. Yes, and we like to end on a slightly happier note if we can. So just it's worth pointing out that the first grain convoy, we spoke about them in previous episodes, but the first grain convoy from Ukraine was

on board the MV Brave Commander which is carrying 23,000 tons of wheat has finally reached Djibouti in East Africa and it's going to continue on to Ethiopia where famine is looming and where of course that grain is desperately needed so that's a

a nice bit of good news to give you at the end of this episode. - Yeah, and a bit of sad news, which is of course the death of Mikhail Gorbachev, whose reforms led to the fall of the Soviet Union. We'll both remember very clearly, Saul, he was seen in the West as a sort of savior, this man who kind of, you know, he'd been brought up in the communist system, he'd worked his way up the party,

etc. And he didn't seem a very likely person to usher Russia or the former Soviet Union into the realm of democracy and freedom. But there he was and he did it. And, uh,

He was greatly revered in the West, but of course, a prophet without honor in his own country. Yeah, I think opinions divided, even in Putin's Russia. I heard one commentator who was a former prime minister of Russia is now a critic of the Putin regime saying that,

he considers Gorbachev to be a great hero. He changed things for the better, not just for, for the Soviet Union or all the countries, but then part of the Soviet Union and its greater empire. That is of course, Eastern Europe, but also the Western world as well. And so why,

when he was asked well of course that's probably a minority opinion he said it might be a minority opinion but we're still talking about at least 30 to 40 percent of Russians revering Gorbachev rather than reviling him so yes there are people like Putin who say that the end of the Soviet Union and and that is the whole point of what's going on now was the biggest catastrophe to ever hit mankind I'm not sure many people outside the old sort of communist cadres entirely believe that but of

Of course, the propaganda in Russia now has convinced a sizable chunk of the population, particularly the older guard, that they have a right to take back some of the territory that they've lost. You know, this return to empire, we discussed it last week. It's utterly ludicrous to think that you can throw your weight around in that way. And that is why the course and a result of this war is so vital.

Great. OK, well, that's all we've got time for this week. So please do join us next week when we'll be talking to another key analyst or participant in the war and discussing the latest news. Goodbye.