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cover of episode Bloomberg Surveillance TV: May 30, 2025

Bloomberg Surveillance TV: May 30, 2025

2025/5/30
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Bloomberg Surveillance
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
A
Andrew Nocella
D
Dana Peterson
L
Lindsey Piegza
N
Neil Dutta
领导宏观经济研究，专注于分析美国经济和全球趋势的经济学家。
Topics
Neil Dutta: 我认为特朗普总统希望降低利率，这已经不是什么新闻了。数据显示个人支出和收入增长乏力，核心PCE显示通货紧缩的趋势。即使有关税问题，美联储也应该更积极地降息，因为美联储的职责是在信息不完善的情况下做出决策。公司正在承担关税带来的大部分通胀影响，利润率可能受到挤压，需求冲击更为重要，经济状况正在恶化。持续失业救济申请人数达到新高，职位寻找率低，导致失业人数持续增长，永久失业者数量可能会增加。我预计失业率可能会上升0.2个百分点，持续失业救济申请人数表明失业率正在上升。全球因素导致长期利率上升，市场尚未真正理解经济可能放缓。消费者信心数据仅仅反映了股票价格的上涨，劳动力市场状况持续恶化。住房市场数据是值得关注的重要指标，目前的房屋销售数据显示出一些最低水平。 Lindsey Piegza: 我认为美联储已经开始考虑降息，但行动的机会之窗非常有限。鉴于第一季度经济负增长和物价压力放缓，美联储可能会采取行动，在年中降息两次，每次25个基点。但下半年，贸易政策和关税可能会对物价造成更大的上行压力，从而消除降息的机会，并可能在年底前将讨论重新转向加息。美联储面临增长和就业的下行风险，但下半年通胀的上行风险将更加突出。美联储必须专注于控制通胀，核心通胀率仍然顽固地保持在2.5%，而且存在上行风险。如果住房成本没有进一步缓解，美联储将很难实现可持续的2%通胀目标。消费者和企业仍在支出和投资，这有助于抵消通胀的影响，并使我们面临通胀上行风险。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Neil Dutta of RenMac discusses whether economic data justifies more rate cuts. He points to rising unemployment claims and low job-finding rates as signs of a slowing economy. He also analyzes consumer confidence data, noting that it may not accurately reflect the state of the economy.
  • Rising unemployment claims and low job-finding rates
  • Consumer confidence data may not reflect the state of the economy
  • Housing market data is an important indicator to watch

Shownotes Transcript

  • Lindsey Piegza, Chief Economist at Stifel- Neil Dutta, Head: US Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research- Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board- Andrew Nocella, Chief Commercial Officer at United AirlinesLindsey Piegza, Chief Economist at Stifel, reacts to PCE and discusses her outlook for markets and the US economy. Neil Dutta, Head: US Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research, discusses the potential for more rate cuts than are currently being priced into the market. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, talks about recent findings on the outlook of CEOs for business in the US and overall sentiment about the economy. Andrew Nocella, Chief Commercial Officer at United Airlines, talks about his outlook for the company and industry this year.

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