Bloomberg Surveillance TV: May 30, 2025
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This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Farrow, along with Lisa Abramowitz and Anne-Marie Hordern. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6 to 9 a.m. Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App.

There is a real question about whether the economic data actually justifies it. And someone who's been making that argument for quite a long time has been Neil Dutta of RenMac, who does join us now. Neil, what did you make yesterday of the rhetoric coming out of the White House in the first in-person meeting between Jay Powell and President Trump 2.0?

President Trump wants lower rates. I mean, that's not exactly breaking news in my opinion. There is a feeling, though, that there has been a number of data points, in particular yesterday's revision to GDP that shows personal spending, personal income isn't necessarily keeping pace. We're expected to get core PCE today. That does show that

ongoing disinflationary trajectory, do you think even with some of the on-again, off-again tariffs in the sense that companies have adapted and adjusted, there is a legitimate argument for the Fed to be cutting more aggressively? I do. You know, I think the Fed's job is to make decisions with imperfect information. So just using uncertainty as a crutch to just wait everything out is sort of besides the point.

You know, I do think that companies are probably, you know, for the time being, I mean, I think they're eating...

much of the a sort inflationary impact of the of the tariffs they're eating the tariffs they're the ones that are bearing the cost margins are probably being squeezed so it's not like it's a good thing but I think the demand shock is more important to be focusing on and this was going into a situation where the economy was already getting worse and so you know I look at the data I mean to me the most important thing that happened this week is that

extended unemployment claims hit a fresh high. That's important. Job finding rates are low. And even though initial layoffs are low too, the fact that those newly laid off people can't find any work is basically why the sort of ranks of the unemployed continue to grow. So I wouldn't be surprised to see the level of permanent job losers tick up a bit more

when the next unemployment, sorry, employment report comes out. So you can rule out ongoing increases in the unemployment rate. The economy is growing below potential and that's making it very difficult for laid off people to find work. And as a result, the unemployment rate will keep rising. Well, let's talk about the next jobs number. It's going to be Friday, June 6th. What are you expecting, Neil?

Well, I mean, I wouldn't expect much. I mean, I think I wouldn't rule out like a two-tenths increase in the unemployment rate. You know, continuing jobless claims are basically sending you a message that the unemployment rate's going up. We may well be at the Fed's unemployment rate forecast for Q4 a couple of quarters ahead of schedule. Would that be enough for the Fed to cut, do you think, given the fact that they talk about the uncertainty of policy in Washington?

I don't know that it'll be enough for them to cut in June, but it'll probably get the markets betting on cuts, more cuts sooner. So maybe it ups the odds of July. But I think, you know, frankly, you can't rule out a scenario where

It kind of looks like what we saw last year, where they're waiting, waiting, waiting, and then all of a sudden they make a very sort of abrupt pivot and do more than expected. Neil, why doesn't the long end of the yield curve worry you? The fact that some people believe that there is going to be longer-term structural inflation and a term premium, and the Fed looking more accommodative will only expedite that.

Sure. That's I mean, again, I don't know that that's the reason why the long end is elevated. A lot of it, I think, has to do with what's going on globally. I mean, even if you look at some of the movements in rates this year, it's been happening on days of some sort of like.

you know, some global development, whether it's a bad Japanese bond auction, bad inflation data overseas. What we know is not that people don't want to hold U.S. long bonds. They don't want to hold long bonds. I mean, the curve is steepening everywhere. So I wouldn't lay that, you know, as purely like a U.S.-centric thing. I think the bigger story is that, you know, the markets haven't really had to come to grips with the idea that the economy might be slowing.

We haven't really had that one piece of very bad, hard data where it's like, oh, aha, like sort of recession risks are higher than we thought. And when that happens, I think you probably see mother nature kind of taking course of

not only for equities, but with the fixed income market as well. Mother Nature is a fickle creature, as you know, and there's been a change in the narrative recently with the U.S. Economic Surprise Index actually rising to some of the highest levels that we've seen in months. You've seen consumer sentiment actually change to up

up itself closer to some of the hard data. What gives you confidence that especially as some of these tariffs get rolled back from worst case scenarios, there will be a slowdown that is not showing up in a lot of the earnings that we're getting at a number of different companies that are managing to weather this just fine?

If you punch someone in the face over and over and over again, and then you decided not to punch them in the face, would that mean that they would be okay at that point? That's all the confidence data is telling you, right? I mean, we just, I mean, I don't know that there's anything interesting. That, to me, the most interesting data point within the confidence survey was simply that consumer attitudes around the labor market kept getting worse.

To me, all the confidence data are reflecting is the fact that equity prices rose. Nothing else. And it's important for people to remember, even though the stock markets had a really good run over the last 12, 18, 24 months, that hasn't stopped labor market conditions from continuing to cool off. That hasn't helped. I mean, you talk about loose financial conditions. How about that? If financial conditions are so loose, why are home sales so weak?

Because mortgages are still so high. Sorry, go ahead. Well, mortgages are still too high for a lot of people to get on the property ladder. Exactly. So that means that financial conditions are, in fact, not that easy. Neil, this goes to the point of just how to interpret data that you say is unreliable. You think that the housing market data is actually the number one indicator to watch, as you did see pending home sales yesterday, come to some of the lowest levels.

I do think it's important. I think what's important about this decline in residential investment that we're seeing right now is that it's coming alongside an ongoing decline in units under construction. That didn't happen last time, right? So there's less...

building going on. And if there's less building going on, there may be less need for construction workers. Simultaneously, we also know that resale inventories are rising, and that's weighing on home prices. Importantly, it's weighing on prices in the areas where the builders have been making the most homes. So again, that goes back to the construction piece. But you know, again, it's important to kind of understand how the

sort of some of these data points how the sausage is made. I mean you mentioned the surprise indicator, that's the city economic surprise indicator that you're probably mentioning. If you look at other measures like your own Bloomberg economic surprise index, it doesn't really show that. So it's important to kind of know which indicators to look at and why those numbers are going up. I mean you saw a very large increase in consumer confidence

And that delta is probably why these surprise indicators moved up. But when you sort of peel back the onion and take a look, you know, the things that actually move more, you know, slowly, like labor market conditions, that shows you that things are continuing to get worse. Neil, I will never look at some of the consumer confidence data in the same way after the punch-in-the-face analogy that you just drew. Neil Dutta of RenMac, thank you so much for being with us.

If this government spending in defense goes towards things like R&D that have dual-use civilian purposes, you could get spillovers that actually end up enhancing productivity in Europe and so have a more long-lasting impact on growth.

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A lot of investors are really watching what company CEOs have to say. And the conference board's measure of CEO confidence fell to its lowest level since Q4 of 2022, seeing the largest quarter-over-quarter decline in nearly 50 years. According to the survey, the majority of CEOs are bracing for a recession in the next 12 to 18 months. Dana Peterson of the conference board joins us now. Dana, thank you so much for being with us.

to talk about how surprised you were to see this data given the fact that a lot of sentiment data among consumers has been ticking up and we have gotten pretty good results in terms of earnings from a lot of companies.

Well, I wasn't terribly surprised. Certainly since the beginning of the year, there's been a lot of volatility coming out of Washington in terms of policies around trade, around regulation and spending. And I think it just really spooked many CEOs, especially those who are very dependent upon trade for their businesses. And so we did notice that for the responses that were before May 12th, where

where we had this detente between China and the US on trade and those afterwards, the ones afterwards were a little better but they were still negative. The idea of how to read this and how much of a forward indicator these surveys traditionally have been, how much has the CEO confidence index really been something of a harbinger of a change in economic trajectory versus kind of noise the way that we have seen a lot of the consumer confidence surveys? Well,

Well, since we've been doing this almost 50 years,

When the measure drops below 50, which is, you know, that means it's pessimism as opposed to optimism, it has done a pretty good job of signaling recession. Now, when we look at the measure today versus what it did back in 2022, late 2022, early 2023, we saw similar numbers where many CEOs were afraid that there was going to be a short and shallow recession. We didn't get a short and shallow recession because consumers continued to work

And the reason why is because companies didn't let them go. Companies cut elsewhere. And we think that, you know, certainly this time around, there's just a lot of noise, a lot of volatility, and it really spooked a lot of CEOs. We still hear a lot of them saying, well, we're going to raise prices, you know, because these tariffs are going to affect us.

but we haven't heard much about them saying they're gonna let people go still in all if we do see these tariffs stay and even intensify you know with some of these other investigations- that you may see some unemployment rates rise. Well I found most interesting about the survey that most CEOs anticipate no change at all in the size of the workforce for the next twelve months so doesn't that show that they can weather this storm?

I think so. But we also need to remember that there's still labor shortages going on. You still have many, many people, thousands of people retiring every day. And you have younger workers, but they have less experience. So I think that story is still there. That narrative is still there. Companies will cut other places, cut investment, because indeed the investment measures were worse. And they'll raise prices, but they're not going to let go of their workers.

We have almost mixed reviews when it comes to corporate America in terms of how they're dealing with the tariffs. Costco yesterday, they're sourcing more locally produced mattresses and pillows, and they seem to be weathering this brilliantly almost. Gap, though, on the other hand, they're anticipating as much as $300 million in a tariff impact. But I want to get a sense from you. Do you think corporate America is using tariffs sometimes as an excuse for other issues in their business?

That's always possible, but I would say in general that most people, well, most companies and CEOs understand what tariffs are. Tariffs are a tax on their imports, and they're not going to absorb those costs, and so they just keep passing it down to the wholesale, to the retailer, and ultimately the customer. And so retailers that sell clothing, most clothing is not made here in the U.S., so it makes sense.

absolute sense that they'd be more nervous versus maybe other types of entities that can source things from the United States. So I

I think that, you know, maybe some companies may use it as an excuse. But in general, this is a real thing. This is a real risk for many companies. And, you know, they have to figure out a way to weather this. And a lot of this is going to be to raise prices. Dana, coming into this year, there was a tremendous amount of optimism. And companies were talking about CapEx spending, mergers, acquisitions. Do we have a sense on a holistic level of how much they've ratcheted those backslides?

in a more sort of sustained way as a result of some of the policy uncertainty?

Sure. I mean, at the beginning of the year, I think a lot of companies were anticipating deregulation, maybe some tax cuts for corporations. And then, you know, the script flipped. We were, you know, less worried about that. And I mean, you know, those kinds of benefits faded away with the trade wars. And we did notice that there was a dip in the number of

a CEO saying that they were going to increase their capex investments. But I think many companies are on pause. They're waiting to see what's going to happen. And

Unless you have some kind of long-term project where politics doesn't matter as much, I think a lot of companies are going to remain on hold until they see what's really going to happen. And also, a number of companies are probably concerned about demand destruction. We think we're actually going to see some weakness in consumer spending, maybe even starting in the most recent data, but certainly in the third quarter. And that's going to be...

very gnarly for many CEOs and many companies. Dana Peterson of the Conference Board, thank you so much for being with us. Joining us now is Lindsay Piegza of Stiefel. Lindsay, what's your take on that resilient consumer and how much their incomes rose as well as their ability to spend on an inflation-adjusted basis?

Well, certainly welcome support from that organic component of income, supplementing consumers' ability to go out into the marketplace and spend, albeit at a reasonably reduced pace. We are seeing some loss of momentum. So the consumer is still resilient. But again, it is at less robust levels than what we've seen over the past couple of years. And this supports exactly what we've seen in the price index.

That deceleration in headline costs reflecting the fact that businesses aren't able to pass on further price increases to the consumer, to the end user, without the risk of losing market share. So while consumers are outspending, they are becoming increasingly cost sensitive.

But for the Fed, this is good news. We have a resilient economy, resilient consumer, and inflation that has been decelerating now for the past couple of months. Is it enough for the Fed to potentially, if inflation's coming down, to think about cuts this year?

Well, I think the Fed is already thinking about rate cuts, but the window of opportunity for action is very limited. Against the backdrop of negative growth in the first quarter, against the backdrop of that deceleration of price pressures, the Fed could act

to cut rates minimally, maybe two 25 basis point cuts mid-year. But as we look out towards the second half, further out towards the fourth quarter, I do expect a more positive impact, a stronger impact from some of these trade policies, from tariffs to set into price pressures, risking upside momentum in costs.

and really removing any window of opportunity for rate cuts and potentially shifting the conversation back to rate hikes by the end of the year. - Wow, rate hikes at the end of the year? And that's driven by what exactly? 'Cause the concern of inflation driven by tariff policy?

Well, again, right now the Fed is walking a very delicate line. As we saw in the FOMC meeting minutes, there are downside risks to growth and employment, which we've already seen that storyline playing out, as I said, in the first quarter, and likely to see very minimal momentum in the economy in the second.

But by the second half of the year, those upside risks to inflation, I do think, are going to become more prominent. And the Fed has to focus on getting inflation back under control. Now, the numbers this morning in the PCE were favorable. That headline is moving closer to 2 percent. But the core number still remains stubbornly sticky up at two and a half. And again, the risk is to the upside.

Lindsay, Neil Dutta was talking earlier this morning that the housing market is kind of the fly in the ointment for this argument, that you've seen a real fall off in terms of activity, people's ability to buy homes. You've seen even prices come down in certain regions for the first time in years. There's a feeling that that aspect of inflation, which is a massive one, is really going to be more of a drag than some sort of boost, and that financial conditions have actually been incredibly tight in that area. What do you make of that argument?

Well, I think when we look at the inflation numbers, it's going to be very difficult for the Fed to achieve a sustainable 2 percent level without further reprieve in housing costs. Remember, CPI shelter costs are still up over 4 percent. So that's double what the Fed's intended target is. And so it's going to be very difficult for the Fed to achieve, again, that broader measure of price stability without further reprieve in the housing market.

That being said, we haven't yet seen a sizable amount of relief. Now, price pressures have slowed, but nominally prices are still very elevated, as would-be homebuyers face near record low affordability rates, so there's still a lockout effect.

And existing homeowners are still facing a lock-in effect, whereby they're largely precluded from offloading their existing property for fear of resetting to significantly higher rates. Remember, even if you're buying a lower-cost nominal asset, if you're resetting from sub-3% to up near 7%,

Well, that's going to result in a sizable increase in your monthly payment, which most Americans simply cannot afford. So that lack of mobility, both into and out of the housing market, I think is going to slow any further progress for the price pressures that we're seeing in the shelter component. There's a theory out there that the tariffs and trade debates will dampen growth and that we're seeing that on the margins, whether it's people getting more concerned emotionally and maybe not in their spending habits, as well

as companies that aren't hiring as robustly or doing capital investment plans the way that they have been in the past. Why do you think that won't be enough of a dampening effect to counterbalance some of the inflationary pressures and strength, frankly, that we're seeing in the consumer?

Well, I think the biggest impact that we've seen thus far has been on the soft data, on the confidence numbers. Consumer confidence has fallen to a multi-year low as consumers are anticipating these dire conditions coming down the pipeline, driving inflation expectations up to a multi-decade high. But on the business side, we've also seen that. We've seen that impact on confidence come down to a multi-month low, with 90% of businesses saying now is not a good

the time to hire now is not a good time to invest but as we saw this morning when we look at that hard data consumers are still spending businesses are still investing so it's as if we're vocalizing more concern that we are actually changing behavior

And so, again, that's going to perpetuate this resilient notion for the economy, both on the consumer and the corporate side, and help to offset that impact on inflation and still leave us facing significant upside risks in terms of price pressures. Lindsay P. Agzev, Stiefel, thank you so much.

If this government spending in defense goes towards things like R&D that have dual use civilian purposes, you could get spillovers that actually end up enhancing productivity in Europe and so have a more long lasting impact on growth.

To learn more about the intersection of national security and global trade, subscribe to PGM's The Outthinking Investor in your favorite podcast app. AI is redefining what's possible for your business. Are you up for the challenge? Microsoft is helping leaders like you get AI ready faster with unified data and simplified platform management, unlocking up to 150% improved output.

Just look at the NDA. They're using AI-powered insights to deliver more personalized fan experiences. Then there's BMW, driving change confidently with safe, secure AI tools and guidance. And the LEGO house? They're creating new interactive experiences for people to explore.

No matter where you are in your business journey, Microsoft is here to help you achieve real breakthroughs that drive impact. Their industry-leading trustworthy AI fuels innovation in ways that are safe and secure. Business leaders Microsoft surveyed saw an average of 3.7 times ROI per $1 invested in generative AI.

Growing and innovating your business is your job. Microsoft helps you achieve that with innovative AI tools and experiences to guide you confidently into the future. Whatever change comes next, let Microsoft help you keep pushing forward. For more details, visit Microsoft.com slash challengers.

I am so pleased to say, joining us now, United Airlines Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, Andrew Nocella. Andrew, thank you so much for being with us. First, can you just tell us why you thought this was an important deal to do?

Sure. It's great to be here. Good morning. You know, I think United is the largest airline in the world. In fact, I know it. But we also have a few gaps in our network and we would like to be a better choice for travelers in the New York City area. We're very strong on the New York on the New York side of the river. And we'd like to have a presence on the other side along within Boston that's more significant than we have today. And this partnership with JetBlue is going to get us there.

How much is this tied to some of the issues that Newark has had with air traffic control signals and all of the publicity around that and diversifying so that there are some options in the New York City region apart from that hub?

Sure. It's a good question. We've had a very long term goal of being back at JFK Airport. We've been working on this particular partnership for JetBlue for a long time. So what's happened in New York and Newark in particular over the last few weeks is a bit of a speed bump. But the second runway will be operational again in just a few short weeks and we should be back to normal.

Do you expect other types of agreements like this, Andrew, at a time when we know that airlines have been trying to come up with agreements to flush out their service area, their options for consumers? Is this kind of the path of travel?

Well, that's a really good question. At United, we've always been focused on the consumer providing choice, whether it's from basic economy or most basic offering to Polaris, if you're trying to go to Singapore and have a life-life bet. And now the Polaris Studio, which is a brand new product we announced a few weeks ago. So we're always trying to figure out what the next step is, how to innovate, how to offer more choice to consumers. I think the rest of the industry has just finally caught up with that. I call it the great reset industry.

The other airlines are out there doing a big reset, trying to figure out how to gain footing again. Whereas United, we figured that out a long time ago. We figured out the consumer was in charge and providing optionality was what they wanted. And we're just a step ahead, a generation ahead because of that. What are you seeing right now that the consumer really wants when it comes to travel?

Well, I think they want choice. And what I'd say is the US consumer has been very resilient. Uh, and for example, uh, trips to Japan, I think are, are just really in fashion right now. Japan, I would describe as one of our hottest destinations this summer. Uh,

where everybody's trying to take the family to Japan. I'm not sure we'll have enough seats, to be frank. But the consumer wants choice in a product range. They'd like the optionality of flying basically economy, but they also like sitting in a premium seat from time to time. And most importantly for United, they like the optionality we provide to go around the world. Whether you're trying to go to Mongolia or Cape Town or anywhere in between, United can get you there.

It's interesting you talk about Japan because I remember Lisa sent her son to Japan and perfectly nailed it when the yen was really to her favor in terms of doing the currency exchange. Where else are travelers going this summer? Because people have been talking about there's all this concern about whether people are going to spend and travel because of tariffs. But it sounds like for you it's pretty robust.

Yeah, I think it's going to be a very busy, busy summer and our airplanes are going to be full. In addition to Japan, I would say that the hotspot, and this is for now the third year in a row, is Southern Europe. Uh,

We just started flying to Sicily last week and we fly to Naples, we fly to Rome, Athens, Spain. People in the United States are anxious to get to Southern Europe. And it's just, you know, it's a really great vacation. And I think that is another big hot spot across the globe. One big question has been not necessarily outbound traffic tourism outside of the U.S., but inbound traffic with people from overseas coming to the U.S. How much have you seen a real drop off, especially as we have heard a

lot of headlines and tensions between the US and other countries. I think that is a fair point. We have seen a small drop off. We've talked about it from Canada. There were previous reports that were just completely false. But it is a small drop off. And other parts of the world, some of it driven by currency. I think Japan is largely driven by currency. But the US consumer has been incredibly resilient. And so from a load factor point of view on our jets,

That small drop off overseas has been more than offset with more U.S. consumers seeking that vacation to Rome or Japan this year. We're about to get a read on inflation as well as consumer spending and income. And there's been a real question about what's driving disinflation. It has been airline prices, actually. Airplane tickets have been coming in. And I wonder whether you expect that to continue or whether that was a temporary blip that has changed, especially as people are feeling better.

Well, as you imagine, airline tickets over the long run are a great bargain if you adjust for inflation for sure. And we have seen a lot of inflation. I do think, you know, earlier this year when we did see some consumer weakness, we adjusted our posture in terms of how much we're charging to fly within the United States and around the world. So that did stabilize demand, but yields

Our ticket prices, from our perspective, are a little bit lower than we expected this spring and this summer, if you roll back to the very beginning of the year, based on what we see from consumer demand. So we do think there's a lot of bargains out there. Do you expect that to change later in the year?

That really depends. It's hard to predict the economy, as you know. We spent all day trying to think about that. If the economy gets stronger, then, of course, we would reset. But once we get out of summer, my guess is these trends will probably continue for a bit. But 2026, I think, is going to set up to be a very great year for United. We have a bunch of new products we're introducing, including Starlink, T-Mobile.

and nuclear seats. So we're bullish about the long-term at United. Andrew, it is so great to have you. Before we let you go, I want to ask, just finishing where we started with the idea of JFK versus Newark and the foray into JFK, I'm wondering whether this is the beginning of a broader expansion once again. I know you've had a love-hate relationship with the airport. Is this sort of the first foray into getting a bigger footprint at that hub?

There's no doubt we would like to get a bigger footprint at JFK. You know, we're going to be starting off with a high single digit number of flights, which is rather small for United. We are the largest airline in the world. So we look forward to looking for more opportunities to expand there. But JFK, not like the other New York City airports, are runway restricted. The runways are very full, as we've talked about often. And so the ability to grow at JFK or any of the three New York City airports is constrained by these runways.

So we're sure hoping that there's advanced technology that allows runway expansion to continue. But in the medium term to short term, the runways are full at the New York City airports and our ability to grow by any airline is quite limited. We have all experienced that. Andrew Nocella, thank you so much for taking the time. Wonderful to speak with you. United Airlines chief commercial officer there. Thank you.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from 6am to 9am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business Hour.

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