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cover of episode Markets Aim to Rally on Calming News and Data

Markets Aim to Rally on Calming News and Data

2025/6/26
logo of podcast Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Surveillance

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People
A
Angie Gildea
L
Lisa Mateo
R
Randy Schwimmer
S
Stephanie Roth
T
Tony Crescenzi
Topics
Tony Crescenzi: 我认为五年期国债是短期债券中的长期债券,对美联储的行动最敏感。当收益率曲线陡峭时,五年期国债的表现最佳。美联储的政策对市场的影响在七年期国债处发生转变。未来几个月,由于移民项目到期和联邦工人裁员,收益率可能会大幅下降。政府的出生-死亡模型可能高估了新增就业岗位。通货膨胀的主要原因是人们对它的看法。经济增速可能放缓至1%左右,这表明会出现增长衰退,而非彻底的GDP收缩。如果经济增速为1%,公司可能会放缓招聘和支出,具体取决于当时的信心。投资组合可以通过配置双A级债券获得5%到7%的收益率。PIMCO增持了机构抵押贷款支持证券,因为它们相对于国债有收益率优势。PIMCO对高收益债券持谨慎态度。投资者应该从短期工具转向较长期限的工具,以锁定高收益率。国防开支如果用于研发,可能会促进欧洲的生产力增长。

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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF).Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJune 26th, 2025Featuring:1) Tony Crescenzi, Executive VP And Market Strategist at PIMCO, talks about portfolio allocation with fixed income and discusses how bonds could react to today's eco data. Treasury yields are declining in the early hours on bets that US interest-rate cuts could come sooner than expected, following a report that President Trump may fast-track his pick for the next Federal Reserve chair.2) Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research, breaks down today's slew of eco data and previews jobs next week. Markets are pricing 63 basis points of easing from the Fed by the end of the year should softening economic data continue to come in, and the S&P 500 is poised to resume its advance toward an all-time high.3) Randy Schwimmer, Vice Chairman and co-head of Senior Lending at Churchill Asset Management, discusses renewed confidence in private equity and whether there's rising risks in private credit. Fed Chair Jay Powell testified to Congress this week that it has “real, positive attributes,” though this sector has been growing fast and has not been through “a real downturn." In this case, Powell thinks private credit “bears close watching."4) Angie Gildea, US Energy Leader at KPMG, discusses the outlook for energy and oil prices amid potentially calming geopolitical conflicts. Oil prices steadied after US President Trump reaffirmed his "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran, which includes targeting Tehran's petrodollars.5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a WSJ story on whether weighted vests really worth the hypea and Bloomberg's story on Nike's Snoafer shoe listing $500 before it's even released.

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