Markets Aim to Rally on Calming News and Data
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This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. Right now in from PIMCO, Pacific Investment Management Company, is Tony Crescenzi here.

on short-term paper. Where's the tip between-- - Good morning. - Good morning. Where's the tip between, like where is long duration? It's not 10 years to guys like you.

Is it seven years or dare I say, is a five-year note a long duration piece? Well, I like to call on, and in my books, I've written that the five-year is a long bond of the short end. So you could say, because it tends to move the most when the Federal Reserve is moving. In fact, the five-year point on the treasury curve is the top performing point on the yield curve when the yield curve is steepening. Steepening meaning, of course, short-term rates are falling.

faster than long-term rates. So we'd expect that to continue. We've seen, in fact, a big rally in the short end relative to the long end, big steepening. But it could have a long way to go because Federal Reserve is likely to keep moving. So I'd say it's beyond five years. We, in fact, call the pivot point on the yield curve the differentiation between short and long-term rates, the seven-year. It's at the seven-year point that whatever the Fed does stops impacting markets in the way that you'd expect. Seven-ish.

It's a seven-year point in the year. Okay, I've got, I'm doing this just to impress Krasenzi. I'm the only one that hasn't read 1,200 pages of Stigam Krasenzi. And the basic idea is the five-year inflation-adjusted yield. I got a four-standard deviation round trip from a positive two-standard deviations to now exactly a negative two-standard deviations. Is it finally where we get out of range with a lower real yield?

- There's a chance for yields to plunge in the months ahead because the employment numbers are likely to get substantially weaker beginning in the fall due to the expiration of key immigration programs for one. Secondly, because of this drop in immigration flows and third, because of the federal workers. Remember many will let go, 3 million federal workers, 5 million contractors, all of that impact probably will be seen in the fall. Add on top of that uncertainty related to tariffs,

geopolitics, even other factors. One final point, there's something called the birth-death model, the additive bias adjustment. The government makes an assumption for how many new jobs are created based on the numbers of businesses that it thinks were created that it doesn't know about yet because they're new.

And it adds in near over 100,000 jobs per month to that. But what it's finding in the reconciliation of those data nine months afterward, that it overcounted by 25,000, 30,000 per month. I can point to many other things that suggest the payroll numbers will fall substantially below where they've been recently. And on a payroll Friday, somewhere out there in the months ahead, the bond market, specifically the short-term interest rates and out to five years, could rally substantially. So why isn't the Fed cutting it?

Because we don't know. Mary Daly just spoke from the San Francisco Fed about the idea of wanting some validation. We don't know. This is an assumption. Often people write off the U.S. economy and it always shows resilience. It does.

it just wants to be sure and the biggest thing though paul is inflation expectations we met with janet yellen at our recent secular forum where we devised a five-year outlook she's part of our global advisory board she wrote papers back in 2015 and 2017 some of my favorite papers with 40 footnotes

where she concluded, and it's called Inflation Dynamics, she concluded the cause of inflation, the main cause, is how people feel about it. And how people feel about inflation has been affected by tariffs. And she wants, and still daily now, she wants to be sure it's done. This is like, we love to have Tony Krasinski in. Yellen codified the phrase slack in the economy.

We perceived it then as an American economy. Can we do that now with our 40 footnotes if we have two stark Americas of haves and have-nots? We can because all we have to look at is how fast can the economy grow

How fast is it growing? And that suggests a growth recession, not an outright recession, which is defined as a contraction in GDP, which was seen in the first quarter of the year. But what if the economy goes at 1% sort of PIMCO projection in that zone and consensus for the next year?

The Fed says it can grow, according to the summary of economic projections, about 1.7%, 1.8%, because that's the combination of the people and how productive they are, 0.3% increase in people, 1.5% increase in productivity. If we grow at 1%, a company will say, hmm, I can handle an increase of about 2% in demand for goods and services. It's only 1%.

should I slow hiring and spending that depends on the sentiment that exists at that time they could either say yes I'm going to cut back I'm really nervous or it's short term don't worry about it and keep the game going let's reset right here for America across the nation an extraordinary busy eclectic news flow here at Bloomberg surveillance we welcome all of you particularly 99.1 FM in Washington a briefing by the Pentagon by the Secretary of Defense

by the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff with really striking video of the military actions of the last number of days. We're going to look at private credit for Global Wall Street, for Manhattan Wall Street. Randy Schrimmer will be with us in a bit. We continue now with Tony Crescenzi of PIMCO as well. Paul? Tony, how much credit risk

should investors be taking these days? Because I can sit in a two-year treasury. I'm not getting 4%, but I'm still getting 3% and 3.25%. That's not a bad living. How much credit risk? Well, in investment portfolios managed by PIMCO and other large managers, a bond investor can achieve a yield of between 5% and 7% for a

the double a minus average credit quality which means a 99.98 chance of getting your money back according to long-term moody's data but that five to seven percent number which we would call the nirvana for bond investing uh need have credit mingled in that but what is credit uh you could say that agency mortgage-backed securities the mortgages that are backed by fannie mae freddie mac implicitly backed by the united states

is a form of credit. It has a yield spread to treasuries of 150 basis points. 150. That's a big yield advantage. And so we are, at PIMCO, overweight mortgage-backed securities. So it's just a matter of how you obtain that credit balance.

In fact, the credit beta, as they call it. We'd be more careful about high yield, for example, where we'd be significantly below where we would, let's say, when we're extremely confident in valuations. But high yield is the best performer this year? It's a great performer, but we know the convexity of it, which is to say...

in bad times you're not going to fare well and if you can achieve five to seven percent which is very attractive relative to history inflation and volatility take it not bad yep does he understand that if you say convexity the surveillance trapdoor yes is it risky it's another way of saying of like a boomerang be careful it can really swing the other way yeah

So short-term paper like Jerome Schneider's just killing it this year, isn't he? The money market king is faring well. We've got a big yield advantage in that space. The thing I worry about most is investors. Households have a major task here. They've been so successful in locking in low mortgage rates.

they should move with the same urgency from shorter instruments into somewhat longer duration, five years or so, five to ten years, and lock in these high yields. Tony, thank you. Tony Kinserge, PIMCO.

If this government spending in defense goes towards things like R&D that have dual-use civilian purposes, you could get spillovers that actually end up enhancing productivity in Europe and so have a more long-lasting impact on growth.

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EasyCater, your business tool for food. To learn more, visit easycater.com slash podcast. This is the Bloomberg Business Week Minute brought to you by Amazon Business. I'm Carol Masser. The 84-year-old leather goods maker, Coach, is on a hot streak lately thanks to a new generation of consumers. After years in the retail doldrums, Coach logged almost $1.3 billion in revenue in the most recent fiscal quarter, up 15% from the year before.

Businessweek's Avalon Purnell writes the revival has been a decade in the making as Coach worked to rebuild its cool factor by getting out of the mall and into the hands of tastemakers, closed and consolidated retail locations, and ran ad campaigns featuring Selena Gomez, Jennifer Lopez, and other high-wattage names.

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Stephanie Roth joins us now from Wolf Research. But far more stuff. They've got to ask the thing that Mayor, not Mayor Daley, that Chicago, Mary Daley of San Francisco said, which is, I think, important. And this is something in the financial media that I think is lost. They don't really follow the bond market and all the predictive statistics that we have available today, do they?

No, and I mean the main focus for them is going to be on the data as they come. The data. And as Mary Daly said, if they were purely looking at the inflation data as it was reported, which is somewhat backward looking, they would think the inflation picture is quite good. Can we get two negative statistics of GDP to keep James Paterba and the NBER on a path to recession?

- No, I mean, well, first of all, the first quarter certainly revised down on consumption, so that's not great, but the second quarter is looking to be a number that could be nearly 4% because we're gonna have a bounce back in trade. So a lot of the volatility that drove Q1 to be so weak was driven by front loading of tariffs. That's gonna go in reverse in the second quarter

The measures of real final demand were something like 2% for the first quarter. So it was just fine. So we expect it to be kind of a decent year for growth, certainly slower than where we've been, something in the 1.5% range, but nothing that's going to flag a recession to the agencies. So an amateur like me takes the two-quarter moving average. Oh, look at you. Look at you. How about the labor market, Stephanie? I'm looking at the continuing claims. Came in at...

Higher than expected. The highest since 2021. Should we start worrying a little bit about the labor market here?

I think what we're seeing is the job finding prospects have slowed down pretty substantially. But the important thing is we're not really seeing layoffs pick up. So it is a sign of a cooling labor market, which was largely consensus kind of heading into this year. I think that should be the sort of messages that the labor market should hold up. But it is certainly a lot cooler than where it's been. The thing to focus on from here on out is to what extent immigration ends up putting significant downward pressure on job gains.

So our forecast we just put out for next Thursday, the payroll report is on Thursday next week, is for 130,000, which is a decent number. Granted, we do think it will ultimately get revised down below that, but at least on first print, it should be decent. So how do we think about that immigration issue? The southern border has effectively been closed. How does that flow into, I don't know, the...

the farming industry, the construction housing business, which I know employs a lot of immigrants. How does that work? Yeah, that's going to be a challenge. And I think it's not even just about the border being closed. The flows of immigration have slowed down quite a bit since the beginning of the Trump administration. And even at the end of the Biden administration, they did start to slow down the flows of immigration.

What's going to be important from here on out is the visa expiration. So there is about one and a half million to three million people whose visas are going to expire because these are discretionary visas. The administration has the ability to end them over the next 18 months. And this is going to be the real impact to the industries that you cite.

farming, construction, leisure and hospitality in some areas. This is where it could start to become a real tightening, and the companies might have trouble finding labor again. Brilliant. Let's crystallize this to the jobs report on July 3rd. It's the first time I've looked at the numbers, folks. Stephanie Roth, of course, living this. Last time around was 139,000, well under 150, well under 200. The statistic now is 116,000.

That 116,000 isn't the same as 116,000 five or ten years ago, is it? No, it's not. What's that delta? So the way I think about it is the job number versus sort of the break-even rate. The break-even rate meaning kind of a steady state that would be sort of neither tightening nor easing up on the labor market. Today, that's around 75,000 based on our estimates. But two years ago, that was double that.

So that's why we were able to sustain really high job gains without really seeing a significant tightening in the labor market because we had all of this flow of immigration. That is largely cut off, and that 75 might even be slightly lower than that, realistically. So is there a unemployment rate number that gets the Fed's attention, do you think?

Yeah, I think in two directions, right? So the Fed's own forecasts are that it could be 4.5% by the end of this year, and they kind of expect it to stay there through next year. So if you get to 4.5% by the fall, certainly would be grounds to be cutting. But there is a chance that this whole immigration dialogue that we're having has the opposite effect on the unemployment rate, because it is tightening the labor market in those blue-collar industries and could actually put some downward pressure, keeping it from rising substantially. That would be the environment where the Fed doesn't cut this year. Yeah.

Interesting, because right now the unemployment rate- I'm getting a lot of mystery here. Well, that's economists on the one hand, Tom, on the other. I mean, unemployment rate is forecast to be just 4.3% coming up. And I mean, again, it feels to me and I think to most people like kind of full employment. Yeah, so I think to remove some of the mystery, I think what we're looking at is an environment where the economy has slowed down. We're at a one and a half-ish percent GDP growth, which is fine, not great.

The unemployment rate kind of bounces between 4.2 and 4.5. And we kind of see an environment that's okay. And then we actually begin to accelerate next year. The immigration thing is going to mean that we see slower job gains, but we don't necessarily need to be scared of that.

is the Nehru. I mean, we've got literally, folks, we've got a function on the Bloomberg T-A-Y-L, which is the Taylor rule, which is, you know, somewhat out of vogue to say the least. Can you do a fancy Stephanie Roth, Nehru into Taylor rule, Oaken law calculation? Or is all that academic mumbo jumbo just as useless right now? Yeah, I mean, well, for a long period of time, it was particularly useless. I think now it's going to become more relevant. But what

But what we're looking at is an environment where the sort of noninflationary unemployment rate is probably in this, you know, four, two to four or five percent range. And I think at that point, you know, you're not really seeing the Fed have to react either way. If it moves below four, it's certainly inflationary, moves above four and a half, then that's weakening in the economy. Thirty seconds. Weak dollar. If we get a legitimate weak dollar, does that provide stimulus through exports?

Yeah, and it also provides some inflationary pressures in an environment where we don't really want to see inflationary pressures. So base case is you start to see inflation pick up over the summer. Because we've had the past couple of months of low inflation, the market has sort of assumed that tariffs don't matter and we're going to see inflation. Just because we saw low inflation recently doesn't mean over the summer it's not going to

Stephanie Roth, thank you so much. Wolf Research this morning. Just a great brief of that key economic data. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130. Anticipated for Global Wall Street and a Manhattan brief, Randy Schwimmer joins us here from Churchill. Paul? Randy Schwimmer is the vice chairman, Investor Solutions Group's Churchill Asset Management, joins us here in our studio here. Randy, if I'm a private equity, private credit investor,

Can I get out of any of my deals? I need some liquidity, dude. It's been years since I've been able. The IPO market seems kind of lame. I'm not seeing a ton of M&A. How do I get liquidity? Yeah, so you know I always come armed and prepared because this is the Center for Private Markets Excellence here at Bloomberg Surveillance Center.

with you too, so we just came out yesterday with a survey of almost-- - 164. - Yeah, yeah, 164 private equity leaders. And what they're saying, which is now consistent with what we're seeing,

more optimism about deal flow. Opening up before the second half starts of this year, about 25% said more deal flow, another 25%, so total about 50 saying it's coming before the first half of next year. Why is that happening? Because the deals that they're looking at

have isolated tariff risk already. So for example, hot topic right now, pest control businesses. Why is that a hot topic? Because you know who doesn't care about fed cuts? Ants and termites. They are indifferent, all right? Why don't they care? Because it's more of a seasonal thing. And by the way, I don't know if you are experiencing lots of flies in the kitchen during this hot weather, right? So pest control firms are opportunities because very little equipment,

not a lot of labor and repeatable revenue sources. You have recurring, how many times have you fired your pest control? Very few. Once they're in, and these are small businesses, private equity is like, you know what? We're going to consolidate these mom and pops and create bigger platforms and sell them. And those businesses, because they're, you could have done that. They're, they're strong through various cycles, right? All of a sudden, right. Have greater value. So now what we're seeing in our shop is a tick up of deal flow, which means more realization. So, so,

Stay tuned, Paul. It's coming. The headlines is private credit is trying to find a new valuation and maybe private equity too. You mentioned there's $3 trillion looking to exit out there in some way, somehow. Go through the process right now about somebody, an endowment or whoever, investing

has to clear they have to sell private credit how does that occur on a less heated thursday in june yeah so what they're doing now is they're coming to us and they're saying randy you know you guys have really successful platform there's certain strategies we really like that

about your business. We have these other businesses that we want to get out of. Okay, can you help us to move our portfolio from strategies that we thought were going to work out but over the last several years has not been as resilient as we thought or the returns haven't been there. So we sit down on a consulting basis with these firms and we say, we can help you get into a...

let's call it a more resilient area with better returns and lower risk. Everyone wants to know how much haircut people take. Well, it depends on the risk asset class that they are currently in, right? So if they're in a distress class and they're not getting the volume, which by the way, historically has been the case because where's the recession? Everybody's saying, hey, great thing about private credit is, you know, you've done really well, but there hasn't been a real recession. Right.

Which is true. You know, there have been little crises. As one of my friends at Moody's says, there have been quizzes, not tests. Okay. But you know what? Some of the asset classes have failed the quizzes, right? If you fail a quiz, you're still failing. So I do think that what we're seeing now from our survey and what we're seeing in our pipeline. So April was kind of a low month. We, you know, given tariffs and everything else, May was a bit of a comeback. June, we have seen 50% higher growth.

deal flow than we saw June of last year. So I think this $3 trillion, Tom, that you mentioned globally of corporates waiting to exit, that ice cube is starting to melt. We're seeing it in our pipeline. We're seeing it in global M&A data. The folks at London Stock Exchange keep track of this. M&A for 2025 through the middle of June is up over 22 and 23. So I do think that it's coming back.

Where are the banks here as you and your private credit folks look at deals?

Where are the banks these days? Because you guys focus on middle market, and where are the banks? Yeah, so great segue. So kudos to Carmen Arroyo and Ellen Schneider, your reporters who came out yesterday. I guess it was Tuesday. Headline, JP Morgan Traders Shut Out of Private Credit Market. Okay, what's going on there is they're going out with their list. You know, I worked there. You worked there, right? You know, remember they go out with lists. Hey, we'd like to buy these loans, and here's a bunch of loans, okay? Yeah.

Or we want to sell these loans. Here's the list. And what your reporters basically said, which is really true, is that, you know, nobody wants to sell these loans. If I have 300 loans to 300 companies in my senior portfolio and they're doing well, why would I want to sell them? So while JP is obviously a giant in terms of secondary trading and loans and bonds and everything else, in the private markets, it's more challenging because these things are...

illiquid and one of the people that they quote says it's like making an ostrich fly it doesn't happen do you care just one final question quickly do you care about mark to market

There is no such thing. There's no such thing. Right. So what we care about are third party valuations. So we have three distinct outside firms who come in every quarter and value all of our loans, each item. Right. Now we have our own team that weighs in. Sure. But, you know, if you have three outside firms saying here's what the loan is, that's that's mark to market. OK, Randy, too short a visit. Randy Schumer, thank you so much. Let's do this again. Much, much longer. Get you at the top of the hour.

For enterprise organizations, managing all your food needs is a tall order. But with EasyCater, you get a single workplace food vendor with the tools and resources to make it easy, giving teams across your organization an easy way to order from a huge variety of restaurants, all on one platform. All while consolidating your corporate food spend so you can control costs, streamlining billing and payment, and simplifying reporting.

This is the Bloomberg Businessweek Minute brought to you by Amazon Business. I'm Carol Masser. The 84-year-old leather goods maker Coach is on a hot streak lately thanks to a new generation of consumers. After years in the retail doldrums, Coach logged almost $1.3 billion in revenue in the most recent fiscal quarter, up 15% from the year before.

Businessweek's Avalon Purnell writes the revival has been a decade in the making as Coach worked to rebuild its cool factor by getting out of the mall and into the hands of tastemakers, closed and consolidated retail locations, and ran ad campaigns featuring Selena Gomez, Jennifer Lopez, and other high-wattage names.

Coach also tapped into the cultural zeitgeist as young consumers look for brands with some customization. TikTok influencers are often seen carrying Coach purses dripping with charms shaped like cherries, pears, and pretzels. That's the Bloomberg Businessweek Minute brought to you by Amazon Business, your partner for smart business buying.

Running a business, it's a lot, right? Orders to place, expenses to track, procurements to manage. It feels like there are never enough hours in the day. We could all use more time. That's where Amazon Business comes in. They offer smart buying solutions to help you make the most of yours.

like Spend Visibility, a cloud-based system to track your buying pattern so you can optimize your savings, and Bulk Buying, so you can continue to save costs on select products with quantity discounts. Now that's smart. Amazon Business handles the heavy lifting, so you can finally focus on growing your business instead of drowning in admin. From customized recommendations to real-time spend tracking and delivery options tailored to your schedule, they've got your back.

Every step of the way. Why not spend less time sweating the small stuff and more time crushing your goals or maybe even sneaking in some well-earned downtime? Discover more about smart business buying at AmazonBusiness.com. A Business Prime membership is required to access Spend Visibility.

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This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. A lot of people talk about fancy degrees. I think of PP&E at Williams, any of another, you know, microeconomics at the University of Chicago.

biomedical science at Texas A&M is arguably the most prestigious biomed degree in the country. There's a few other institutions getting it right. Angie Gilday survived that. Angie, what was it like surviving the biomedical combine at College Station?

It was hard. I'll tell you, there were a lot of really smart Aggies out there. So glad to have graduated and gotten a prestigious degree from Texas A&M. Absolutely iconic degree. I have to have you, Lisa Mateo mentions the Shell BP non-event. Do you people at KPMG, do you look for a big oil upstream roll up?

You know, what we've been seeing in the market and we've seen this over the last couple of years is consolidation. You saw Exxon buy Pioneer, you saw Chevron make a bid for Anadarko, which then Oxy ended up purchasing and then Hess. So certainly I think consolidation in the market is something that will continue. Who buys who is something that's still left to be determined.

Angie, I watched. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. You know the answer because you watch Landman. I know. You know who buys who. Yeah. I mean, I watch the first season of Landman. I consider myself an expert now in all things oil and gas, Angie. But I noticed that that risk premium that we saw in crude oil from the Mideast escalation in Iran, that seems to be out of the market now. So what are the underlying fundamentals of global oil these days?

It's a fascinating situation that happened because if you compare what happened in the 70s with the oral embargo, with the Iraqi war in 2003, I mean, we just did not see the spike that historically we've seen.

when there's conflict in the Middle East. And I think part of that is the markets are more mature. We've got more data. But a big part of that is one, there's oversupply in the market right now. So we're we're washing oil. And the second thing is

the relevance that the US shale and American production has had to the market. I mean, we're the number one producing country in the world. And the reliance on the Middle East oil is not what it was 20, 30, 40 years ago. You're down there in Houston, the center of the US energy business. Where are your clients? Where do they want to really see crude oil in terms of price? What's kind of the ideal range?

Ideally it's above $70 a different and different a of drilling the shale is depleting. So the costs a some additional costs fro

the terrace on the steel pipe and things like that. So really, you've got to see above $70 a barrel is really a good sweet spot. Otherwise, it just gets really, really tough to maintain profitability. Angie, one more question on a busy day here is I talked about the roll-up as well.

The EV, electric, ESG thing, and all of it related to hydrocarbons, are we in the same regime of 36 months ago, or is it a new new for the debate in America of hydrocarbons and electricity?

Well, it's interesting. We just had the statistical review come out that KPMG sponsored with the Energy Institute, and we're seeing all forms of energy grow. We saw U.S. renewables grow at a 7% rate, which was faster than Europe. But we're seeing it play out in different parts of the world. China, for instance,

added more renewables than any other country combined. They still use a big part of their wedge around gas and fossil fuels, coal, but they are completely adding to the mix. Angie, too short a visit. Angie Gilday, thank you so much. The KPMG, the United States energy leader. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple Podcasts.

You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say, Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130. Joining us now with our newspapers, and she said, we're starting with this. I don't care what you people think.

Lisa Mateo. Yes, but Brad Pitt can fit into that F1. And this is interesting. It's a question from the Wall Street Journal. So it's, can F1 finally deliver Apple a big screen hit? So it's coming out in theaters this week, right? Brad Pitt's in it. When the team first started pitching the movie, there was a bidding war for it, okay? So Apple paid some big money. They agreed to spend $250 million. Wow.

Brad Pitt paid more than $20 million. He's going to get a cut of the film's revenue if it becomes a big hit. Back end. Yeah, and you have big directors, a director of Top Gun Maverick. It's in the theaters. Yes, correct. I'm going to go see it in the theater. Yes, and I feel like you have to, like even IMAX because of the sound and all that kind of stuff with it.

Pre-release surveys are showing that F1 is struggling to generate interest of audiences beyond older men, so they're not getting that younger group. Okay, but the buzz on F1 is all the drivers are, you know, hunky boy toys for the girls, and they're getting a lot of girls watching F1. Huge worldwide audience. Is that what they think here? That, like, you know, Barbie or whatever, women will show up to see F1? Is that in the zeitgeist? Well, they're hoping.

I mean, 'cause you think about, like, what was that other movie? "Gran Turismo," that other race car movie that came out. - Well, listen to him. - And that was a great one. It attracted the younger audience. It attracted the women. It did that. It also had a younger star in it, too. - James Garner. James Garner and Monaco years ago. - Oh, yeah. - It's good to remember. - Okay, no, not at all. - Monaco, yeah. I feel so old. - Right over my head. - Next. - But we'll give the recap on Monday and let you know how it did. - Yeah.

This is one also in the Wall Street Journal. Weighted vests. I know you've trained. I have the weighted vest. I got it for Mother's Day. You got it for Mother's Day. I did. I asked for it. It was on special request. You asked for it. But you've seen the women, right? Running around with these things.

It was huge with the military and now the women, it's like a fashion statement. Like they're walking all around the street. I got a weighted vest for Father's Day. It was a case of gin. There you go. What works for you? So my girlfriend Karen has it and she does it on the Peloton treadmill.

So she wears it as a pillow. Yes. Now, by the way, while she's doing this, I'm just kicking back on the couch watching ESPN with a cocktail in hand. Oh, my gosh. That's how I roll. You gotta get rid of it. But you people with the vests, all right. You have to because they went into the research behind it. So yes, it does burn more calories. That's the whole thing why the women are doing it. If you wear one about 10% of your body weight, it's going to burn an additional eight and a half calories. And then if you look at the heavy one, I have a 16 pound waistline.

one and a 20 pound one. It's got two on hand. What do they do to your back? But that's the thing. They say if you go too high and if you start feeling pressure in your back, they say to go down in weight. They say don't do it in like jumping exercises and all that because you could hurt yourself. That's the warnings out. But no, you've got to wear it around the house. Like you kind of, as you're doing your cleaning. Really?

So we've done Brad Pitt and girl wellness here. This is a twisted newspaper. We have time for one more before we play boy music. So Nike comes out with earnings today, right? But the talk is about its latest shoe. It's a Snofer. Yes, it is a sneaker and a loafer. Okay. And this is the phenomenon you've seen.

seen men wearing these, right? They're the comfortable shoes. So now Nike is starting to jump on that. You know, Tom, you've talked about all like the executives kind of wearing them. You see the pictures if you're watching on YouTube. What do you think? I mean, they're kind of cute. No, they're not. They're kind of ugly. But it's the Air Max phenomenon. And it comes out June 27th. It hasn't even been released yet. And it's going for like $500 in resale prices. What's the snow part in it?

then it feels sneakers sneakers yes sneaker and a loafer sneaker and a loafer so you see the bottom is like the sneaker and the top is like a penny look if i see david weston walking around the snow for then i'll know it's i'm telling you men love these things i don't know yes all right so we're getting tom a pair jack purcell's the original snuffer yes

Remember that? Yeah, sure. You'd have white and black Jack. There was a huge choice. P.F. Flyers or Jack Purcells or Connie's. That was it. Lisa Mateo, the newspapers. Thank you. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts.

Listen live each weekday, 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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