We're sunsetting PodQuest on 2025-07-28. Thank you for your support!
Export Podcast Subscriptions
cover of episode 16 the case for 选举人团

16 the case for 选举人团

2024/10/28
logo of podcast 不值得录音

不值得录音

AI Deep Dive AI Insights AI Chapters Transcript
People
(
(一位发言人)
(
(两位发言人)
Topics
发言人A: 选举人团制度并非完美,一人一票原则在该制度下无法完全实现,人口较少的州拥有更大的权重,赢者通吃制度使选举结果偏向摇摆州。这些都是选举人团制度的固有特性,而非缺陷。 然而,许多批评者夸大了摇摆州的重要性。他们认为,因为摇摆州可能决定大选结果,所以其他州的选票不重要。这种说法是错误的。每个州的选票在绝对结果上都是同等重要的。 此外,批评者忽略了选举人团制度的优势。它促使两党更关注摇摆州选民的诉求,避免只关注极端选民。即使在普选制度下,候选人也会倾向于争取摇摆选民。选举人团制度只是放大了这种倾向。 关于容错率,选举人团制度在州一级容错,避免小错误影响大局。其多层级设计降低了错误累积的风险。虽然在某些情况下,选举人团制度的容错率可能不如普选制,但这并不意味着它在所有情况下都如此。 最后,选举人团制度的复杂性并非没有价值。它旨在缓和民意表达的直接性,避免过于激进。它更好地反映了各州的利益,在维护小州利益和多数统治之间取得平衡。 发言人B: 选举人团制度存在诸多问题。一人一票原则无法完全实现,人口较少的州拥有更大的权重,赢者通吃制度使选举结果偏向摇摆州,这些都是不公平的。 摇摆州的重要性被夸大。非摇摆州多数派选民的投票价值很高,因为结果已定。而摇摆州选民的投票价值介于非摇摆州多数派和少数派之间。 选举人团制度的复杂性增加了操纵选举的可能性。它并没有带来额外的优势,反而增加了制度的复杂性,使得选举更容易被操纵。 选举人团制度的复杂性实际上是对联邦制的质疑。宪法赋予各州决定选举方式的权力,这与选举人团制度的复杂性有关。联邦制导致了中央和地方权力之间的张力,这无法通过简单的制度改革解决。 选举人团制度的合法性在于程序的公正性,而非结果的优劣。它比普选制度更能避免政治极化,有助于维护小州利益和多数统治之间的平衡。 但是,制宪者可能预料到党派的存在,但无法预料其影响程度。党派的存在并不会严重破坏选举制度,因为无论是否有党派,候选人仍然需要争取选民的支持。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why does the Electoral College system give more weight to votes from smaller states?

The Electoral College system gives more weight to votes from smaller states because each state’s electoral votes are based on the number of its representatives in Congress (House + Senate). Since every state has two senators regardless of population, smaller states like Wyoming (with 3 electoral votes) have a proportionally larger influence compared to larger states like California (with 55 electoral votes).

What is the argument that the Electoral College amplifies the importance of swing states?

The argument is that swing states, which are not consistently aligned with one party, receive disproportionate attention and resources during elections because their electoral votes can tip the balance in favor of a candidate. However, this is not inherently unfair, as swing states are not fixed and can change over time, reflecting a dynamic political landscape.

How does the Electoral College system handle errors in vote counting compared to a national popular vote?

The Electoral College system can mitigate the impact of vote-counting errors by localizing them within individual states. For example, if a few counties in a state like New York miscount votes, it may not affect the overall state result or the national outcome. In contrast, a national popular vote would amplify such errors, as every miscounted vote directly impacts the total tally.

Why do critics argue that the Electoral College is overly complex and prone to manipulation?

Critics argue that the Electoral College’s complexity creates opportunities for manipulation, such as attempts to influence electors or state legislatures to override election results. However, this criticism is not unique to the Electoral College, as even a national popular vote would still involve state-level processes that could be subject to similar manipulation.

What is the historical justification for the Electoral College in balancing state and federal interests?

The Electoral College was designed to balance state and federal interests by ensuring that smaller states have a voice in presidential elections. This reflects the federalist structure of the U.S., where states retain significant autonomy. The system prevents larger states from dominating the election process and ensures that diverse regional interests are represented.

How does the Electoral College moderate the direct expression of popular will in presidential elections?

The Electoral College moderates the direct expression of popular will by introducing a layer of representation between voters and the presidency. This design aims to prevent the election of candidates who might appeal to a narrow majority but lack broad, moderate support. It also ensures that the interests of smaller states and diverse regions are considered in the electoral process.

What is the role of swing states in the Electoral College system, and why are they considered important?

Swing states are crucial in the Electoral College system because their electoral votes are not predictably aligned with one party, making them decisive in determining the outcome of presidential elections. This importance arises from the winner-takes-all approach in most states, where winning a swing state can significantly shift the electoral balance.

How does the Electoral College system address the issue of voter turnout in non-swing states?

In non-swing states, where the outcome is often predictable, voter turnout may be lower because individual votes are less likely to influence the result. However, the Electoral College system ensures that even in these states, the majority party’s voters effectively secure their desired outcome without needing high turnout, as the state’s electoral votes are awarded to the winner.

Chapters
本期节目探讨备受争议的美国选举人团制度,尝试为其进行辩护。节目开头声明观点并非完全中立,并对可能存在的偏见进行说明。
  • 美国总统选举并非完全一人一票制
  • 选举人团制度可能导致全国得票最多者落选
  • 摇摆州在选举中扮演关键角色
  • 节目将列举并反驳对选举人团制度的常见批评

Shownotes Transcript

Everyone else just doesn’t seem to get it! 拨乱反正。

本期开头不建议跳过因为有好多disclaimer和一个笑话!

(04:45) 选举人团致使小州摇摆州僭越伦常倒反天罡?

(17:49) 选举人团放大一小撮坏分子的错作用?

(22:30) 选举人团叠床架屋扰乱全国一盘棋?

(28:34) What if democracy isn't just about popularity, and State boundaries aren't gerrymandered conspiracies.

(35:14) Self-celebration, agreeing to each other, etc.

p.s. 我的JDVance turncoat时刻 (03:36)

References:

(12:51), (18:05) Bush v. Gore (2000) - 推荐Fiasco (podcast with Leon Neyfakh), 和Recount (HBO 2008, starring a sex offender)

(22:53) Trump’s efforts, an Act from 1887, and “failed to make a choice” https://www.propublica.org/article/the-long-odds-facing-trumps-attempts-to-get-state-legislatures-to-override-election-results) (note this article was written pre-Jan 6); also see 2022 Electoral Count Reform Act as a response

(25:19) Article II Section 1 Clause 2 ("Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct...")

(33:15) Did Founders NOT envision parties? See James Madison, The Federalist Papers No. 10 (“The regulation of these various and interfering interests forms the principal task of modern legislation, and involves the spirit of party and faction in the necessary and ordinary operations of the government. […] that the CAUSES of faction cannot be removed, and that relief is only to be sought in the means of controlling its EFFECTS.”)

(36:18) National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

附加思考题:

  • ​普选制下人口更密集的城市吸引更多竞选资源(低成本接触大量选民),这是不公平的吗?
  • ​普选制下全国margin过小也会trigger national recount吗?
  • ​到底什么是普选票?假如有个州采取ranked-choice voting, 按选民对候选人的喜好排序进行逐轮淘汰决出胜者,候选人在该州到底是获得了多少票呢?注:这个州叫Maine, which is currently NOT a winner take all state.
  • ​De facto联邦可能存在完美普选吗?
  • ​从立宪初期的3个winner take all states,到现在的48个州自主选择winner take all,这是race to the bottom/囚徒困境吗?(spoiler alert: 不是。)

我们不是你的律师;我们不是我们的雇主;我们只是妄议的aliens;所有谬见jointly and severally remain our own.

BGM credit to Suno AI