Hey, pull up a chair. It's Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod, Robert Gibbs, and Mike Murphy. Hacks on Tap
I think the last part offended Trump the most. I love that clip, Robert Gibbs, because I...
You can just feel how offended Donald Trump is about people lying. It's just something that he can't tolerate. You know, it violates his code of conduct. The arson teaching the fire prevention class and being outraged at how they set the fires is remarkable. But, you know, the whole interview was a bit of a remarkable feat. I know we'll get into it.
Yeah, I don't want to get you in trouble with your overseers at NBC. And I love Kristen Welker does raise the question. And I want to take this up in a minute. Like, why do people even bother with this? Because Trump is so untethered. It's like, you know, I guess it's the same reason people go to the rodeo and jump on a bucking bronco for 10 seconds and end up with broken bones. But anyway, so let me just introduce you.
Someone who never lies, who always tells the truth and actually has facts to tell, to share, because she, unlike us bloviators who sit on our butt and do a podcast every week, actually talks to voters, which I think is always a positive thing. Sarah Longwell, our old friend.
the publisher of The Bulwark, the host of The Focus Group, which is a can't-miss podcast in which she, every week, she and her moderators talk to voters around the country. So she actually knows shit. And it's back for a new season starting this Saturday. So if you've missed it, like we have, and listening to what real voters have to say about real-world things,
Tune in Saturday. She wanted us to mention that and also the fact that she owns her own pool queue. So don't, if she wanders into your saloon.
Right. Do not challenge her because she is almost a professional. Sarah Longwell, great to see you. Great to see you guys. I regret telling you about the pool cue. You know, I meant to say something at the beginning that is probably not that relevant to our discussions here, but I was a tad late. And the reason I was late and I, you know, I always have a good reason for being late.
which is almost all the time. I was going to say it's a constant. Is that I saw a bulletin on my phone, a CNN bulletin. And I thought, well, this could be relevant to the important discussions that we have on this podcast. And I opened it and it was that Kraft cheese was recalling their, where's the thing? They were recalling their single slice cheeses because they can cause you to gag and create
cause an unpleasant taste in your mouth. And I was thinking, this is news. I felt that way about these crass cheese slices for like 50 years. I mean, I can't believe that. So they held me up and that's why I was held up. And just for your planning, Sarah, that will be the last topic we cover right before the mailbag. And the advertiser will probably never get. So let's just jump into Trump because
I mean, by now it's not even talk about not news. The fact that this guy just keeps climbing, the more significant his legal exposure and problems become. Sarah, where do you think things are at right now with him? And then I want to talk about a few maneuvers he's pulled off in the last few days that were pretty clever. Yeah.
Yeah, well, look, listening to the voters in the focus groups, they are they're locked in for Trump. And and I've watched, you know, because we do the focus groups every week and we've been disproportionately focused on two time Trump voters over the last, you know, 10 months or so since the 2022 elections heading into the Republican primary. I've watched the evolution of Republican voters being very open to an alternative to Trump, especially when they were very DeSantis curious voters.
And and then I watched after the search of his house in Mar-a-Lago, there's the first rally around Trump effect. And then you start getting the indictments. And that is coupled with DeSantis putting in what is clearly a lackluster performance, not really capturing the imagination of Republican voters. And, you know.
And at this point, people are just sort of the voters are just like, yeah, Trump, he deserves a second chance. And he did great. He was a really good president. They talk about the economy, his record on the economy. But, you know, all along, I've basically said you can't beat something with nothing. Like, I think there was a moment for somebody else to emerge right after the midterms, right after the midterms and for a few months after that.
But they didn't. Right. And now you look across this field, you know, they made strategic choices to Santa specifically made strategic choices about not challenging Trump in particularly effective ways, trying to get to his quote unquote right. Not that Trump exists on a linear spectrum. Still kind of doing that. You know, this last week, you know, he's gone nuts on the new vaccine and gone apoplectic on the CDC again. He's, you know, said he's going to shoot drug dealers. They're going to all do dare to do.
on the fentanyl problem and there are a couple of others. I mean, he's still trying and Gibbs, you know, I know we beat Murphy up all the time because he's such a starry-eyed idealist and hopes that the Republican Party that he remembers from the 70s and 80s will return. But it should be said that there probably is one chance
to slow Trump down, and that's Iowa. And DeSantis is spending all his time and money there. And Trump is...
less, he is less popular there. He didn't win last time. He's probably got a base of about 35%. So DeSantis still has that one opportunity sitting there with a 60 something percent favorable rating there. So, you know, Mike's not here. So someone has to speak for him and you and I draw lots. And unfortunately I lost. So you're going to be pro Murphy.
I wanted I wanted to make that point. When you called Murphy a starry eyed idealist, I realized that you had lost a lot strong. No, I look, I I think Sarah is absolutely right. I mean, you certainly when you look at the national polling and with all the caveats around national polling, Trump's never been stronger.
There was a moment nobody kind of filled the vacuum. I think you have to give some credit to the Trump campaign, which is far more professionalized than it was a few years ago. They ran into the breach. They immediately declared. Remember, everybody, we made fun of it, that lackluster at best announcement. But, you know, he jumped right in and was able to take advantage of this stuff.
DeSantis and others kind of waited and waited DeSantis for the legislature to get done in Florida. I do think he still has one more chance. I agree with Murphy that I think somebody somebody not only has to be Trump in Iowa.
That same person also needs to beat him in New Hampshire. And that's where I lose. That's I mean, that's a problem. Things will things will change after Iowa if somebody comes in a different place. But to think that the same person is going to do both of those things. I was struck in X. You'll remember our times of of expectation setting, whether it was at a debate or, you know, in a caucus or a state.
And, you know, the Politico piece of DeSantis sort of saying, you know, I think a good second would be a great showing in Iowa. And, you know, the truth is. And then I think that they went on to say, look, we're just trying to get him to a one on one contest in South Carolina and beyond. And let me tell you, if there's a one on one contest with Donald Trump and anyone else in South Carolina, Donald Trump's going to kick their ass.
I mean, it's not going to be a close race. And so you speak as someone who has some experience in South Carolina. I a couple of different elections there. But look, I the nice thing about DeSantis now, really, the rest of the Republican field, there's amazing clarity as to what to do. Right. They literally have to make sure he doesn't cross that bridge. Right. If don't let those guys over that bridge.
And that's kind of where they are. I would put all your money in Iowa, put a bunch of money in New Hampshire, because if it doesn't happen in those two places, it didn't get a much matter. Well, Sarah, you know, Trump obviously realizes this, too, because they've plussed up, you know, for all the for all the yammering about Biden and his basement strategy and all that stuff. And Trump hasn't campaigned very much. He doesn't really show up very much.
But they've added all of these appearances in Iowa in the coming months, and whatever money they're not giving to their lawyers, they seem to be shoving into Iowa right now. So they recognize the vulnerability as well. I think, you know, Iowa is shaping up as the sort of make or break state for, and if Trump can prevail there, a lot of green field ahead of him, in addition to, you know, a number of trials like
in which he could get convicted for a felony. We can talk about that in a minute, but I went to Iowa and did focus groups in person, uh, about two months ago, talk to non-college voters, evangelicals, a hundred percent for Trump, every single one of them talk to college educated voters. Uh, and it was more mixed, uh, more like half the group for Trump. Others, uh,
And this was to me the big problem for DeSantis in that group is that they sort of recognized that DeSantis was like the alternative. And so their heads were with DeSantis, but their hearts were with Vivek Ramaswamy. And they were like, I don't know. Because he's there in the state a lot too. And he – if you go – if you talk to reporters who are there clocking them –
One of the problems for DeSantis is he's saying, OK, we're going to stake everything in Iowa. I'm going to spend a lot of time in Iowa. DeSantis spending time with voters is not necessarily translating into voters liking him more there in Iowa. Whereas Ramaswamy, like if you go to their events back to back, people tell you you go to a kind of a lifeless DeSantis, you know, anger fest.
where there's no joy and like a 70 minute part culture war part policy speech. Then you go to Vivek's and like a lot of energy, his 10 commandments of Vivek or whatever it is he's peddling out there and he gets people going. I didn't know he wrote those 10 commandments. That's like, that's news.
You and I know, what Sarah's saying is you got to put on, and I don't mean this in a pejorative, you got to put on a show. There has to be some excitement. We felt this at the end of our town hall meetings. Sarah, you do 10 questions. It's serious policy, blah, blah, blah. And then you sort of like say, hey-
Hey, we fill out a card to caucus for me kind of thing. And, and, you know, we had to think of some stuff to like, how do you get people excited so that when they get out of their seats, they're feeling in this case, people remember fired up and ready to go. Right. So that was like, you've got to get some. Yeah.
mojo going. It's interesting when you say that him spending more time, DeSantis spending more time in Iowa isn't exactly leading to more votes. That's not a great way to spend your candidate's time. Well, there is kind of a Bataan death march quality to the whole thing. You know, it's kind of a grind. It doesn't seem... Now, I did talk to a Republican operative who you would know, Sarah, who went to a few of his events and said that he was better
then I'll acknowledge it was a she, better than she,
uh expected and that you know people were not hot you know people he worked the room and he did the things that normally human beings would do in this situation but i always it sounded to me like i you know there's this thing in in politics called the that i and i invented this this is my thing uh called the dancing bear theory which is some call it some when a bear when a bear dances no
No one says, gee, that bear doesn't dance very well. They say, oh, wow, the bear can dance. So when he goes and actually visits each table and makes small talk, people say, wow, that doesn't necessarily mean that he's going to, as you say, capture their hearts and minds. Ramaswami has learned the lesson of Trump, which is, you know, Trump is a show.
And even with these long kind of diatribes and appeals to resentment and hatred and all of that, he's also an entertainer. And he knows how to capture crowds. And look, I'm not here to... My feelings about Trump are well known, but I do think we're being hacks. We got to acknowledge the obvious, which is, you know...
Whether you like him or hate him, the guy has a feral genius for this. And he's got a good team now, as you point out. There's a debate next week at the Reagan Library. I want to talk about that and the irony of the setting in a second. But Trump's not going, as he didn't go to the first one, as you wouldn't if you're 40, 50 points ahead.
And he's counter-programming. He's going to Detroit to talk to UAW workers, which is a twofer for him. I mean, first of all, he's creating an event that will get more attention in some ways than the debate itself. Secondly, he's taking a shot at Biden.
for not being there. And he's appealing to that sort of blue collar worker who has become a core of his, of his base. I mean,
I mean, it's just a very it seems like a very clever play. And so, you know, in some ways he's playing the game at a different level than these other candidates are. Yeah, I mean, this is right. It looks he's like in color while everyone else is in black and white. And so like the second debate is is it's just more of this undercard. Can we shuffle around a little bit for second place? And I'm just going to add one quick last point on DeSantis that I meant to hit, which is
The main argument for DeSantis that he was going to be able to make was this electability argument that Trump was less electable than him. And because he started doing the six week abortion ban and all the crazy extreme stuff, he undermined the central thesis of his campaign. And now Trump is viewed by these voters because in the,
A while back when I was talking to voters, they were all like, I'm just worried he can't win. And now people don't say that really anymore. Like then maybe they're a little worried about that. But like they don't think DeSantis is so much more electable, but he has so much less baggage. And so it's overwhelming. They believe that Trump is their strongest candidate.
That's right. And it didn't used to be that way. Like that is a shift that has happened over the course of just the last 10, 11 months that he has now seen as dominant. And this UAW thing is a good example of why, because it also gives Trump to do an opportunity. Here's an opportunity to do this thing that's like.
kind of the magic that he has, which is too kind a word, but where he's able to play both sides of an issue, right? He is not on the worker's side. He is not even telling the workers the truth about the strike. Like he's going to tell them this is about electric vehicles and China when it's actually about plants that want to move to right to work
red states so they don't have to pay union wages. And so but he's going to do this thing. He's done it on abortion to this. I'm all things to all people. And I know how to just talk out of both sides of my mouth and make everybody feel like I'm on their side and hold their position. And he knows that that is a you know, the whole electric car issue is a is a sensitive point.
In the negotiations. Don't discount the fact that he's going to look somewhat presidential, right? This is going to be... You're going to have a bunch of... I mean, the split screen is going to be interesting, right? Six tryouts, six people trying out, and one guy kind of playing the role, right? Which is why, and I know we disagree with that starry-eyed idealist Mike Murphy on this, that...
Then I do think there's a smart point to not going to that debate and sort of lowering yourself to be with essentially
as I've called them before, the semifinalists to this. Yeah. And so he's going to someplace that's going to a generate a ton of news, right? It's a huge story. Uh, secondly, obviously it is a battleground state that he won, uh, uh, narrowly lost by a bit more. Uh, so it's kind of an up for grab states, the type of state that Sarah would go do focus groups in, uh, at some point in the general election. Uh, it's a smart move. So I, you know, again, I, to your point, he's,
He's playing a game above the rest of this field. And look, the benefit of, as you said, when you're up 40 or 50, you can call some different plays. You can do some different things. Just for our listeners, I think I should mention at this point that the dancing bear reference, if you're wondering whether that ever made an appearance in the Oval Office in a meeting with a president of the United States, I can confirm that David has explained that
to a president of the United States what's unique about a dancing bear. I should really trademark that thing. Remind me. Sarah's wheels are turning. She's going to throw that out before you can trademark it into maybe this Saturday's focus group. If anyone doubts that this is a play that the Trump people are running with enthusiasm, listen to this ad that just went up, this radio ad. They're America's autoworkers.
They helped build our country and keep us on the move. And we've always been able to count on them during times of war, peace, prosperity, and tough times. Yet all they've ever wanted is to compete fairly worldwide.
and get their fair share of the American dream. Donald Trump calls them "great Americans" and has always had their backs, from tax cuts for their families to playing hardball with China. Biden? He's turned his back on the autoworkers by cutting a deal that uses American tax dollars to help fund China's electric car business.
That's a stake in the heart for American autoworkers, and they can count on President Trump to change that. I'm Donald Trump, candidate for president, and I approve this message. Paid for by Donald J. Trump for President 2024, Inc. So there you have it.
I mean, and that's what you're going to hear when he goes there on, I guess, Wednesday. And Sarah, just based on what you know, I mean, it's ironic because those tax cuts substantially benefited the CEOs who are getting hugely rewarded, which is one of the sticking points for the UAW. But based on what you know from what you've heard, Sarah, I think it's a pretty clever tact. Yeah.
I mean, very. I think one of the things the economic anxiety I fight with my colleague Jonathan last about this at the boardwalk all the time because he's like the macroeconomic picture is good. Why aren't people happier? And I I don't know what to tell you. I listen to Democrats, swing voters and Republicans, and all they do is complain.
Complain about the economy. They know exactly how much eggs cost, gas costs. Well, that's the thing. You know, you can see in polling, we talked about this before. Like if you ask people about how is Biden doing on jobs in the economy, you know, his numbers aren't great, but they're like low 40, low 40s. If you ask him how he's doing on prices and inflation, he's in the low 30s.
Yeah. And that happens to be the prism through which people are looking at the economy right now. And gas prices are going up. That's what they want to hear. Right. He's got their backs. He's he's tackling China, you know. And let me tell you, I've also done focus groups on electric vehicles and gas.
Average people believe that electric vehicles are not a thing for them, right? They believe they are things for elites that they will not have access to. People like Robert Gibbs who has been driving around in them for years. Yes, I'm an elitist or I'm at least I'm elite. I don't know whether I'm elitist, but no, we know that the electric vehicle, there's an electric vehicle pinch in these negotiations, right? We talked about this last podcast, fewer parts, fewer people needed to put those cars together.
fewer UAW workers. Right. And these plants are being built, as Sarah mentioned earlier, in right-to-work states where they're not unionized. No. And so, look, this is going to be a battle. I will say, having done also some politics in Michigan, don't forget there is a segment of UAW workers that's Republican, right? And that likes and loves Trump, right? So he's playing to some of that. I think he's as much trying to hold what he has and steal some
figuratively, not literally, steal some from Joe Biden in a place like Michigan. But, you know, look, this is I'd be far more concerned about about a UAW, the UAW strike and what it means for what his goals are on climate, what his goals are for working Americans than I would be about Democratic hand-wringing about just
pulling up Wikipedia and understanding that Joe Biden's 80. These are things that are central to what he needs to put together to win this race. Okay, then let's take a break right here and we'll be right back.
Let's talk about the debate for a second, because people still are desperately trying to break out and be the other person. And DeSantis kind of held serve in the first debate. Wasn't great, wasn't bad. You know, got good marks from people who already liked him. Nikki Haley got really a strong reaction to her performance debate, which has moved her from, you know, like 4% to 5%.
uh and hasn't really uh hasn't really moved and you know i was just at an event uh with a prominent republican yesterday it was off the record event so i won't say that person either but uh his view was was maybe she could be the person who breaks out in this debate's going to be very important to her but in some ways she represents the dilemma of the republican party which is
Everybody who wants her thinks she'd be a strong general election candidate. And for a lot of the reasons that they think she'd be a strong general election candidate, you know, she's a little bit moderate on abortion. There are limitations to where she can go as a primary candidate. Sarah, do you hear much about her in your groups? I hear much about her from reporters who want to ask the question about, is Nikki Haley the one? I also from some old donor pals. Could she be? And here's the thing.
If Nikki Haley was the nominee, something has gone very right with the Republican Party. And that is me not. We should point it right. We should just interject right here. We should have said at the beginning, you you have spent most of your life in the in the service of Republican candidates and Republican politics. You excommunicated yourself.
Because of Trump. It was mutual, I'd say. No, I think so. Yeah. You're not on his you're not on his Christmas card list. And Nikki Haley would have been sort of my ideal candidate if we lived in the world of sort of 2014, 2015 and everything hadn't gone haywire. But she exists as a pre-Trump politician.
politician and voters don't want pre-Trump politicians. And the way they express that is very clear. They say we are not going back. They say she's an establishment, a little bit of a rhino, even though they sort of like her, like they're sort of like milk toast on her. They're like Nikki Haley seems fine. Some people are aware that she has a foreign policy experience, so they don't hate her like they hate Mike Pence.
or unfortunately, like, they hate Chris Christie. Like, there's people that they really have a negative reaction to. She's got sort of... Tim Scott also gets this, where it's like, they feel sort of favorably toward him, but, like, they don't want him to be president. They don't want to get behind him. And so she is a donor. She's sort of the latest in a donor fantasy. Right, right, right. And I wish...
Like, I just, I wish that there was a party there for her. But the fact is, the gap between what base voters want
And what swing voters will tolerate has gotten very wide for Republicans. And so, you know, if you look at the Republican Party right now and you add up Vivek Ramaswamy, Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump, they're dominating 85 percent of the Republican vote. Like, that's just where the party is. It is not where Nikki Haley and Tim Scott are. And Mike Pence, they're carving up 16 percent between all of them.
Yeah. And Haley, I think, you know, we've talked about this a lot here. She is she's a very clever politician and she tries very hard to slice the salami really thin and and kind of straddle these lines. And these lines may be unstraddle. How do you say that? Unstraddleable? Unstraddleable. Yeah, I think that's it, isn't it? Anyway, you know, and I think you ultimately get caught in uncomfortable situations trying to.
Well, you look inauthentic, right? Like she looks like a phony. Which is the worst thing you can be in presidential politics. Yeah. Nikki Haley, she wants to run like she's had this campaign in her head for a long, long time. She wanted to run as a future of the Republican Party. It was just a different future than the one we're currently staring at. Yeah. It's interesting you mentioned donors, because my guess is while she didn't see a huge uptick in voters,
numeric support in national or early polls. She did see some uptick, but not unimportant that she's top of mind for donors because there are the Ken Griffins of the world have moved from the DeSantis world to the sidelines. They're looking for someone
who isn't Trump, to be able to spend some money with. And for somebody like Nikki Haley, having the money to play this game out through Iowa, through New Hampshire, you know, I don't think she's any... not a ton better position in South Carolina than any other rivals to Donald Trump, despite being the former governor. Her getting to South Carolina would be an important feat for her to give her the ability that if there is...
a change in Donald Trump's legal status or his incarceration status, I should say, that she's in a position to be able to take advantage of that. High favorables are important. You know, is she going to get her moment? Is she going to get more than the moment she had? I think this is, as you said, a huge debate for her. It's really a huge debate for anybody. We are
We're getting, you know, it's getting late early. And I think if somebody doesn't start to make that move and then add to it, you know, and build what they need to in Iowa and New Hampshire, it's going to be over early as well. Yeah, well, we're turning that corner to the final stretch. And that's why this debate.
is going to be, you know, I think there's gonna be a certain amount of desperation on the part of candidates to break through somehow. But it's so ironic that it's at the Reagan library because this isn't Ronald Reagan's Republican Party anymore. You know, it's a isolationist, you know, anti-trade, anti-immigration party and, you know, anti-compromise.
And, you know, I think Mike Pence is going to go and be reverential about the history of Reagan and others may touch that cloth. But the truth of the matter is the guy who isn't there defines the Republican Party or the guy who's not going to be there. And it's not Reagan's party anymore.
And to Sarah's point. So let me ask you a question just before we move on. We got to get on to the other guy who's the other central player in this in this drama. But Gibbs, I mentioned before, you know, poor Kristen Welker is getting, you know, beaten up because they people feel she was too gentle with with Trump. But, you know, you watch Trump.
And Trump sort of dominates. He just dominates these things. And he does it in part because, you know, I mean, if Donald Trump tells the truth in one of these shows, it's purely by accident. I mean, it's not it's not intended. I mean, he lies for practice. He knows what he wants to do.
And it's I mean, it's a it's a conundrum because then you get beaten up for giving him a platform. Yes. And I always hate that because it's like the guy's going to be the Republican nominee. You've got to ask him questions. Yes. But it does feel it's it's a it's a it's a dilemma. It's like nailing Jell-O to the wall. Right. It's not a satisfying while you're doing it. And the outcome isn't altogether that fruitful. It's you know, we've talked about it here. He's done it on TV.
in the CNN town hall meetings. He's done it in a lot of these things. And he controls the situation. There's no decorum. There's no, you know, you watch a normal interview. Somebody asks a question. Somebody gives an answer. Somebody does a follow-up. Somebody gives an answer. Donald Trump just rewrites the rules. Shamelessness and dishonesty are generally considered, in real life, bad traits.
But in politics, and particularly in the politics of this moment, the audacity of his shamelessness and dishonesty is at least at this juncture working for him.
Well, remember, too, the Republican Party believes that hitting the media is a valid criticism and an essential talking point, right? So when you're combative with... Also the world he helped create. Right. Particularly a mainstream media, you know, MSM interviewer, that's a plus. We may look back, though, particularly at upcoming trials and realize that Kristen Welker birthed
in Trump's own words, the truth about... I'm sure his lawyers weren't happy, yeah. His lawyers probably have made several trips to the drugstore for Maalox and Pepto-Bismol because he cops to the... They're going to need stronger drugs than that by the time this thing is done. But he cops to the idea that it wasn't some lawyer telling him that he could win. He was making these decisions. And it's very different than what the lawyers have rolled out previously and what they've talked about, which is, look,
He was getting all this advice. People were coming into the Oval Office telling him, like, sir, this thing's been stolen. You've got to act. Yeah, he screwed himself there. And now he said to himself, oh, no. And, you know, and give this to Kristen. She played right into his bravado, right? He's never going to admit, oh, somebody else is making these decisions. I'm Donald Trump. I make all these decisions. You're fired.
And he walked right into, again, an interview that we probably, to your point, giving him a platform, whatever that phrase means anymore. I don't know the answer. I'm not saying you should or shouldn't. I'm just saying it is when you're dealing with a guy who's like...
uh completely an untethered sort of sociopath who will say and the truth is you have these you have everybody saying oh well you have to fact check him well who in the world you can't fact check him it's like fat that's you know he's the he's the he's the automatic weapon of disinformation i mean the stuff comes so fast that you can't possibly fact check him fast enough and
And the truth is who wants to watch that? Who wants to watch you talking to somebody and you fact check? She did a couple of times try to, she, she certainly did. I, this is not a criticism of her. I think she is excellent. So I think she drew, she drew some blood. I also defend reporters talking to Trump, uh,
because I think that it's important for the American public, especially in these not in the right wing sort of infotainment media settings to see Donald Trump, because I think they're not seeing these deranged truth social bleats that he sends out. And I think people are going to need to see that this guy is deranged. That's going to be important. So I don't begrudge them talking to him.
I disagree, though, with the idea that they can't fact check him in real time. So I the two interviews that I've thought have been really effective with Trump were Jonathan Swan and Chris Wallace. And in both cases, he tells the same lies every single time they were. Jonathan Swan's handing him is holding up charts being like, that's not true. Let me show you right here. You guys seen that Michael Jordan documentary, The Last Dance? Yes. Yeah.
So when they're interviewing Jordan, they keep handing him an iPad and showing him old clips of himself. Like there's video of Trump saying that a woman who gets an abortion should be given the death penalty. There are all of these crazy things out there that he said, and I think he should be confronted with them. I don't think that it's so –
insane to think that the media preparation could be done to make it more uncomfortable for him. Brett Baier was pretty challenging to him as well, I think partly to get the stench of dominion off of him.
But he surprised Trump, I think, by challenging him. No, I don't disagree with you. I don't even know if what I'm saying is right. I'm just saying that this is such a wholly different kind of character. Totally. That it's so hard to, you know, I think if you interview him, you have to do it. You have to do it. You have to do it. But it's just, like I said, they come so fast. Yeah.
You know, the whole interview is going to be that. You have to pick your moments. If I'm his lawyer, I say to him, hey, dude, enough with the interviews.
For the reason you said. He's not been listening to the lawyers all that much. But I think to your point, you've got to pick your moments, right? You've got to have your... Where are you going to challenge him? Yeah, we've got enough tape now to see sort of where he's going to go. Well, she did, as you say, lay a trap for him that he walked into. Walked into and his lawyers are having heartburn about. The other thing that we should mention about that interview, because I think it's going to play out on the stage later,
at the next debate and certainly the next time everybody gets together with Donald Trump. And that is his criticism of DeSantis about the six-week abortion ban, this idea that there's some compromise to be had with Democrats. And to your point, sir, I mean, he's, this guy's bragged about being the guy who appointed all the members of the Supreme Court that overturned Roe versus Wade. My feeling is that he's got this golden Trump card, no pun intended. It's going to be very hard
to beat Trump on the abortion issue because he did appoint the Supreme Court. And I think he knows that. And I think he's taking advantage of it by taking a more moderate position because he's already looking ahead to the general election. Sure. I mean, it's not going to cost him the nomination.
No, I mean, the only thing that's surprised me about the abortion comments is how many folks on the right or even kind of the anti anti Trump right are like, oh, well, this is the thing that's going to knock him out. Like, no, it's not. Donald Trump has has been able to have it both ways on this issue for a long time. He was both able to say that he was going to appoint Supreme Court justices who would overturn Roe v. Wade, which he ultimately did.
But also he benefits from the fact that he's been married three times. Nobody thinks this guy is a social conservative. Nobody, they, they, they, they vibe with him as a, as a sort of socially moderate, uh, candidate because he has, uh, not just no sexual morality, but horrible sexual morality. And so, uh,
It actually for, you know, one of the things that strikes me in the focus groups when I ask about abortion, which I always do, is in just about every group, abortion in Republican groups is super mixed or Trump voting groups. You get a lot of people who say, well, I'm personally pro-life, but I believe in a woman's right to choose and didn't want this overturned. And I think that Trump is in actually the sweet spot.
with voters on this and he's able to now i've and i've said that the democrats will not be able to wield abortion against trump as effectively as they were able would be against ron desantis certainly or mike pence um i don't think he takes the issue off the table i think it still matters they will be able to point out that he appointed those justices but like the average kind of low info voter does not perceive him as somebody who's going to be a hardliner on abortion he's
Played an interesting card, right? He's he is he set this up to your point, Sarah, feeling like he's going to be the general election guy. And he started to play the general election strategy in a way that he's not going to get pushed over and be, you know, DeSantis is six week ban and whatnot. I don't know whether we ever get a number out of Trump in terms of what he wants and where he's willing to go.
You've seen a number of Republicans land at 15 weeks. Glenn Youngkin has landed at 15 weeks as he's trying to sort of thread this needle in the Virginia state legislative elections. But no, I think to your point, this is, you know, again, he's playing at a different level and he's he's he's he has the ability to to play this card in a way that normally any Republican that insinuated what he's insinuating would would be in for a really long week.
They've taken some shots at him. Even some from the sidelines have taken shots at him. But no, he's stronger. He's stronger now. And the White House is the White House is taking notice of this. OK, let's take a break right here for a word from our sponsor. We'll be right back. Democrats have in the last several weeks.
come to the revelation that Joe Biden is old. I thought that was something that was everyone knew. I thought that was sort of baked in the cake. But no, it's now like, oh, my God, he's old. What are we going to do about that? And now there's all this, you know, so I've got news for my fellow Democrats.
Joe Biden is running and he's going to be the nominee of the Democratic Party. There is no committee. This isn't the 1960s. Mayor Daley isn't going to lead a delegation of party bosses to the White House to tell Biden he's not going to be the nominee. He is going to be the nominee. And if someone runs against him, he would still be the nominee. And so I'm losing patience with the whole... You know, Gibbs, you know, I raise these issues frequently.
for a long time, but the time has come and gone. This is the reality. And the question is, what is this general election going to look like? How does he deal with it? And can he deal with it? And my other question for you guys is, you know, one thing we haven't said about Trump is he is going to spend most of the spring in courtrooms.
And those trials, I think by definition, are going to get a lot more attention than anything else. That's where the focus is going to be. They're more interesting. So, you know, people say, well, Biden can't be in the basement like he was last time. I actually think this is something that's going to work to his advantage because I don't think he's going to get the same attention that
that presidents normally get because everybody's going to be focused on what's going on with Trump in these courtrooms. So I don't know how that plays, Sarah, but it seems to me that, you know, now that we've spent 45 minutes or whatever it is talking about how Trump is this behemoth astride the political landscape, Biden's age is no doubt a liability. There's going to be the fear from now until next November that
about a slip and fall or a flu or whatever. But it ain't like Trump's going in this thing without some major liabilities. A guy could very well be convicted
about the same time that he clinches the nomination, convicted of a felony. And while this may not matter to the base, I got to believe this matters to swing voters. If I gave you, you two seasoned strategists, the option... Now she's calling us old. Of being, I just, I said seasoned. Yes, I know what that means. You don't have to spell it out for me. 81 years old, but being the current president versus being 78 years old
And under four separate indictments as your convictions by the time. Sure. Which would you choose to be? Yeah, I'm going with seasoned. I would go with being the actual current president against the other guy facing multiple indictments. And look, I was just in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, which should be a good place for Biden. And the reason that people are panicking right now is because I just think I mean, I was panicked.
11 months ago. And I think I was on the show expressing how much it was all over the focus groups back then. We've beaten the hell out of it here. But the time's gone. It's over. And the people who are just coming online now to be like, I don't because they're seeing the polls right with Trump running even with Biden. Yes. And a lot of Biden's low approval rating is a reflection of the fact that a bunch of voters are just starting to like some of the voters in these focus groups are like, so he's definitely going to be the nominee.
They're just coming around to the idea that he is going to be the guy and they think he's too old. That said,
You ask them head to head with Trump. It's not close. They'll vote for Biden. And not only that, but there were people in the groups who you got the sense that they are not the sense they said, like, I don't know if I vote like whatever. And then I'm like, well, what if Trump's the nominee? And they also haven't quite grokked that Trump is probably definitely the nominee for Republicans. And when you tell them, what if it's Trump again? They're like, oh, yeah, no, no, no. Then I'm I'm all in. And I think that, yeah.
I just, I think that it is not helpful for people to panic. Like we're there that you're too late to panic. And Gretchen Whitmer is not like, this is the reason that they're doing it too, is that they, you know, a year or two back there didn't Gibbs and I would fight about this actually.
People didn't really have an alternative, right? There didn't look like much of a bench. And now after 2022, there does look like a bench. So everybody's like, well, why can't Gretchen Whitmer do it? Why can't, you know, Gavin Newsom do it? Why can't Warnock do it? The thing is, none of them have operations. Like, you know, you just know that this is not something where they can just jump in. I would note that Gavin Newsom did a whole hour on CNN on Monday night. He's parading around the country. He's certainly showing leg.
And I don't think that, you know, I think it's as much in preparation for the future as it is for now. But the effect of it isn't helpful to Biden. You know, I heard someone say, well, you know, the White House really approves of him going after the Republicans the way he is. I don't believe that. I don't believe that it's helpful for them. He's like the, you know, he's like the young trophy wife next door, you know, who the guy who's
Yeah. Or, you know, or you could do it the other way around. But, you know, it's like, why, you know, wow, this is we could have this, you know, and I think it's unhelpful. It's a crazy it's an interesting dance that that Governor Newsom is playing. I think you've got others that are doing this, playing this a little bit more subtly, you know, to Sarah's point. I mean, there's there's big names and there's good names out there. Actually, you know, I'm
I'm an honorary co-chair of the Gretchen Whitmer fan club and have been for a really long time. Yeah, you got the whole decoder ring and everything. You know, there's a card that goes in my wallet and everything. You know, it is, I mean, we even had this discussion last week on the podcast and, you know, Crystal has his Whitmer Warnock ticket and, you know, somebody, I think one of the exit questions was like, how many more weeks does somebody have to
For how many weeks does Biden have to drop out for somebody else and blah, blah, blah? And it's like, guys, it passed. It's over. It's not happening. So, yes. And let's be also clear that nobody in real America...
is worried about David Ignatius's column in the Washington Post. OK, they don't know it exists. They've never heard of it and they don't read it. So that's a we've dealt with this a little bit. And look, I do think there's to Sarah's point, some of this. And to your point, it is the age part is baked into the cake. Let me read to you the numbers in a Quinnipiac poll last week.
Is 80-year-old Joe Biden too old to be president? Yes, 68%. No, 28%. So that all of a sudden, hey, that's a big concerning number. Is 77-year-old Donald Trump too old to be president? Yes, 34%. No, 63%. Wow, now we've got a legitimate problem.
Except in the polls head to head, Joe Biden's at 47 and Donald Trump's at 46. So to Sarah's point, and I've seen these in the focus groups with Democratic voters that she did in an episode that I was on, they get away from, they get past democracy.
They reconcile his age with the idea that his role is to, and I think he's the one who also intones this, he's playing the role of making sure Donald Trump doesn't come back. He's beaten him before. He can do it again, this time with a record. Obviously, it's more complicated because...
The economy is exceptionally more complicated. It's not just the incumbent versus the challenger. There's a lot more nuance to it now than there was two plus years ago. But I do think that the thing that that Joe Biden's age that that
That worry for Democrats and swing voters and others is ameliorated by the fact that Donald Trump is the alternative. I think if he was running against a 55-year-old, I don't know if that's Ron DeSantis or who else, I think that the numbers would be a lot different. DeSantis is 44, but everybody's got to hope on his side that he's healthy, and I certainly do, because that would create
The other, though, Sarah, is because the other fantasy thing here is the third party. Somehow the third party, everybody hates these guys. A third party will come in and offer Americans the alternative they want. My feeling, and I've said before, is Trump has a high floor and a low ceiling and anything that lowers the ceiling sufficiently is...
puts him in play. I don't think these things, I think if I were the White House, I would be most concerned about that. I think they want and need a binary choice. You absolutely do. And let me tell you, I am very, very alarmed by the no labels threat to run. And here's the reason why. What Joe Biden has to do
to win this again is replicate not a pro-Joe Biden coalition, but an anti-Trump coalition, right? And when I run the campaigns that I run, like in 2020, Republican voters against Trump, I am focused on these swing voters, these right-leaning, independent, and soft,
or moderate GOP voters. You know, they voted for Romney. They voted for McCain. Trump's a bridge too far for them. That's an anti-Trump coalition. They don't love voting for Biden. They don't want to do it. They're even less interested in doing it today than they were the last time when they were more rolling the dice. But you've got to get those people. You have to. And so that is... No labels will not get
30 percent or 20 percent. But they could they get nine percent of those of that persuadable anti-Trump coalition that has to go either for Joe Biden. No, that has to vote for Joe Biden, like to hold that coalition together. That's what they could do like that. They will reelect Donald Trump. And and people should be very clear on that. There is no appetite for.
No, not nearly. It's an elite play. This is why I do focus groups. It is to keep me from playing fantasy politics. Right. And no labels is a fantasy politics donor play. Right. Donors love this idea. You know what you say? If you say Joe Manchin and Larry Hogan or and I love Larry Hogan, or if you say John Huntsman and Joe Manchin, nobody, nobody's interested in that except for.
elite donor class. John Huntsman and Joe Manchin. Well, no, but it's orgasmic for the donors. It is. You know, they love it. And they love the... Well, we don't have to explain why they love it. But the other issue is lesser capacity to get votes, but the votes all would come from Biden. Is Cornel West running on the Green Party line? You know, when you consider, for example...
The state of Wisconsin, which Biden only won by 20,000 votes last time. You don't think Cornel West is going to get votes in Dane County in Madison, Wisconsin? Yeah. And, you know, so and I think the progressive community needs to own this.
project here. Someone needs to persuade him that, yes, there is a difference between these two candidates and you can wreck the ship here. We should be clear if he's persuadable. And I'm not going to get into a long diatribe on that, but I don't know. I mean, we should also be clear, too, that no labels donors, a lot of them are Republican donors. They get the play here. This is not some
poorly kept secret. This is, I don't, I don't think they get, I don't know if you said 9% of that voter, 9% overall. I don't think they, I don't think they get a lot because I think people are going to be like, I think they're more likely not to vote than they are to vote for a third party candidate. It is, as you said, David, it is concerning and the math is bad, but this idea that there's a bull moose party out there that's going to elect a president is, is
It's not even fantasy politics. It's beyond fantasy. And now, a word from our sponsors. ♪
With all due respect, and I read his column, so I do respect him, that people aren't going to get fascinated by David Ignatius's column. The idea of shutting down the government is going to be big news. It is going to impact people. It may not impact people for long, but I also think it dramatically underscores a Republican problem, which is they don't seem to understand that
controlling a branch of government and hoping to control more branches of government requires one to govern. And it does not appear as if they have the makeup to or they plan to govern even the small amount that they currently control. Yeah. Well, Sarah, isn't one of the reasons why the Republicans did so poorly relative to expectations in the midterms
a fear that was animated by, you know, election deniers, you know, very ardently anti-choice Republicans and promises of impeachment and so on, that these guys were off on some ideological jag and people
people didn't want to go there. I got to think that if you're in the White House, you know, one of the things that you're calculating is that the Republicans themselves are going to help you in 2024 by behaving exactly the way they're behaving. Yeah, I mean, I think I think it's dangerous because a lot of people don't they're not reading Politico. They're not reading Punchbowl. And I worry a
about a shutdown is when they'll look up and be like, who do I blame for this? And when you're the president of the United States, like you've got the biggest target on your back. So I always worry about that a little bit. But I do think Republicans have done a bang up job this time around of making sure that anyone who wants to look knows that it's their fault that they're doing this. And, you know, there was one of the Republican congressmen said something. This guy Lawler said something like, we got this clip. Let's play this clip because it's really good.
This is not conservative republicanism. This is stupidity. The idea that we're going to shut the government down when we don't control the Senate, we don't control the White House. These people can't define a win. They don't know how to take yes for an answer. It's a clown show. You keep running lunatics, you're going to be in this position.
Yeah, there you have it. Pretty blunt. In 2022, in the swing like elections were, you know, in Arizona, a lot. That's where you held off the election denying lunatics. But the problem for Republicans is in these redder areas where you just keep getting primaried by crazier and crazier people and being pushed out to the extremes. A lot of those people are in Congress now and they're running the show and it is a clown show.
It's worse than that because it's dangerous. It's a clown with a flamethrower, as my friend Charlie Sykes likes to say. Two points on this, David. First of all, I appreciate what that congressman had to say. He's 100% right. I don't know what part of
what's happening in Congress right now, he thinks is conservative republicanism. I think that got off a few stops ago on the Metro. I don't, we're not, what is, what's controlling the House of Representatives ain't anything close to conservative republicanism, right? So that's point number one. Point number two is Kevin McCarthy understands what everybody understands in this, because he was saying this a week ago, right? Shutting down the government
is doing nothing but helping Joe Biden politically and hurting Republicans, right? And we've seen this movie three or four different times. Actually, you and I saw it in the later stages of the Obama administration. People understand who's doing what. And I agree with Sarah that there's always a worry that when something chaotic happens, that the person who's supposed to be in control of the world...
or the country at least, is going to get dusted up here. But I think we've got a pretty clear record on government shutdowns that the party that forces a government shutdown is the party that ends up losing in this case. Kevin McCarthy said it. He warned them. And they can't even- I agree with you. I agree with you. They've passed exactly one appropriations bill, and we are 10 days away from the end of the fiscal year. One out of 12.
To Sarah's point, though, I agree with both you guys. I think in this case, the Republicans have basically sent up a flare saying, in case you have any doubt. Please blame us. We're doing this. And McCarthy's in a huge dilemma. And he's got the sword of Damocles holding over his head, which is the deal he cut to be speaker. And, you know, we'll see what happens. But to your original point, Sarah, I do think it's an important note.
Because I've said for a long time that the danger of this age issue, and, you know, I believe Joe Biden has been a very strong president in terms of what he's accomplished. His presentation is not strong. And that's the problem, because that's what people see. They see how he presents himself. And so that's where you get these doubts. And what he can't afford is this notion that things are out of control and he's not in command.
And that's a danger in any situation where there's disruption.
Uh, and so you've got to, you know, an auto strike now you'll get a shutdown and so on. And the question is, does some of that seep into that analysis that he's just not strong enough? So there is danger there, but I think this one's clear though, in this particular case, I think, yes, I do think the Republicans have set this, set this up and it's, uh, and McCarthy knows it and it's clear he knows it. So here we go now with our brand reconstituted mailbag hit the music.
It's Listener Mail. So, Gibbs, we have a new feature this week. You didn't do it last week, right? I wasn't here. No, we announced the number. Murphy was very confused at a 773 error code. I told him it was the second line at your house and that you've got people manning the line just so people know. It's driving me nuts. I can't get any sleep around here. Just as you hear this,
When you hear these voices, we're now taking hacks on tap voicemail. Call 773-389-4471. 773-389-4471. Yep. I know that just rolls right off the tongue. And we also are still taking, for those who are shy and don't want to have their voice on this worldwide outlet,
you can still send them to hacksontap at gmail.com. So let's tee up the voicemail from Dan.
Hey, guys, this is Dan from Dallas calling in. I was just curious what y'all have to say about the impeachment trial of Attorney General Paxton here. Thanks so much for the show. Love what you do. Yeah, Dan. Well, that that's a great question, because what an interesting story over the weekend. The Republicans in the House impeached the the attorney general of
Texas, which for a lot of good reason, it seemed, for favors that he did for contractors who gave him services and a variety of other things. But the thing went down and it really became a proxy struggle between, you know, the right Trump forces and more moderate Bush oriented forces in Texas. Sarah, you're a Republican. Translate all this for us.
Yeah, I mean, I don't know that I would I would use a slightly different dichotomy, which is this was a breakdown between the nihilists and the cynics and people of some measure of decency. I saw some of the people who voted to impeach Paxton. They wrote letters. One of them signed it, you know, a dad who will be able to look my children in the eye. Yeah.
And the rest of them and this is like, what have we seen? We've seen a lot of this with Republicans giving complete and total exoneration to people that are completely corrupt within their ranks. And this is the central problem, the central failure of the Republican Party, which is that it is refusing to hold corruption accountable.
and venality accountable in their own ranks. And when you don't chase out the toxic elements, you end up with a fully toxic party, which is what the Republicans have right now. And Trump, Paxton being a strong Trump supporter, Trump celebrated the
decision, Gibbs. And it also, obviously, the message was that, I mean, Paxton used the same language that Trump's using, you know, rigged process, you know, unfair, all that. So, you know, I think Trump thinks this just airs to the atmospherics around his own legal thing. And a tribalizing
what shouldn't be tribalized i was gonna say that was my word for this the whole answer this question is tribalism right it's it is facts be damned somebody's trying to take out one of ours we're gonna not let that happen regardless of of what it is not a not a great way to set up uh how to govern your state not to mention the chief law enforcement officer of said state but uh
Tribalism is a powerful drug. Yeah, tribalism is a powerful drug, and Texas is very much in the hands of the cynics and the nihilists, it seems like, Sarah, to use your words. They came out on top in this saga. So let's see, what else do we got here, Gibbs? Play number three, Chris. Okay.
Hi, guys. This is Chris. Obviously, the presidential election in 24 is the big focus, but with the big Senate elections as well and potentially Democrats losing control of the Senate, how do you think that impacts the elections in 24? Also, every thought of a live show, you have at least one ticket sale. Thanks. Ooh, there you go. That's great. We probably need to build on that base, though, to...
I don't know. We got to go on the road. We got to go on the road. He didn't say how much we would charge, so maybe one would do it. Well, first of all, Chris, thanks. We're not Taylor Swift, man. Speak for yourself. No, I'm kidding. First of all, great question, Chris. And let's go through this. I mean, here's the challenge for Democrats. I would say there are seven or eight, probably eight races that are
the truly most competitive races. And the downside for Democrats is all of those races are currently held by Democrats. One of them is an open seat in Michigan, but the others are held by Democrats. We know Ohio, West Virginia, and Montana are going to be tough races. We have good candidates, Tester, Sherrod Brown. If Manchin decides to run, I think he's the only Democrat that has a possibility of winning in a place like West Virginia.
But you've got tough races in Arizona, Nevada, an open seat in Michigan, potentially tough race in Pennsylvania, and a tougher race in Wisconsin. Those last five states are going to be presidential swing states. And I would just say, if you look at the last few elections, who wins the presidential race in those states also wins the Senate race. The only place that that was different in recent times was Susan Collins. So
Yes, it's the big focus, but if Donald Trump does well in this election, then the chances are that he's won three or four or five of those states is going to be very high. If Joe Biden wins this election, it is a pretty good shot that Democrats win.
Hold all those seats. I think if you were a betting person right now, you would think there's a better bet that Republicans control the Senate after the 24 election, but probably that the Democrats control the House. So get ready for divided government part 389.
Sarah, you got anything? Only I agree with that just because the House is the inverse, right? The law, the there's a bunch of people who are Republicans who are in districts that Biden won and and the narrow the margin is so narrow right now and could get narrower as some of these like slightly more normal Republicans look to flee.
uh, you know, for CNN contracts and, and other better pastures because they hate dealing with these toxic Republicans that margin can narrow. Like something happens with George Santos, who's a lunatic, you know? So yeah, I think the chances of Dems taking the house in 24 is pretty good. I will say just as a final point on this, Steve Daines, who's heading the RSCC and McConnell have been much more clever about recruitment in this, uh,
They saw what happened last year. They lost some seats they thought they could win because they had Trump hugging election deniers. And they've methodically gone and recruited candidates they thought could navigate around that and win general elections. And the question in some instances is just whether they can win primaries. That still remains to be seen in some of these states. But they've put
put themselves in a position to do, potentially do well. And that's why Daines endorsed Trump early, because he wants Trump's help. He doesn't want him to stand in the way of these candidates who can win general elections. He wants to get his blessing on them. And Montana is a great test case for all of that happening, Daines' state. A great tester case. Ooh, I see what you did there. Before you go, Sarah, we've got to...
We got to do the Hacks on Tap book club. What are you reading? The book that I can't wait to read, and I don't think it's available yet, is McKay Coppin's book on Naomi. I mean, that- Sign me up.
So that excerpt in the Atlantic, because I just think it's going to be Romney unleashed. And there's something for me as a sort of never Trumper, where there's like a visceral thrill that I get or some relief at seeing him tell the truth and tell and call them out, call McConnell out for not doing something about January 6th. And so if that chapter or that excerpt is any indication, I am just dying to write. I'm like done with I don't want to read any books about Trump whenever I want to read this book about Mitt Romney.
I just reread The Looming Tower by Lawrence Wright about the 9/11 attack because I'm interviewing him. I'm having a conversation with him on The Axe Files next week. And I was reminded of what an extraordinary piece of journalism that was. Anybody who's interested in that period of history,
ought to pick up that book if you haven't read it already. Gibbs, you got anything? No, I would just say McKay Coppins too. I'm anxious to read that book. Somebody who had some great interviews with Trump and I think really understands Trump, to be able to get the access that he's gotten from somebody like Romney, that excerpt talked about just handing over notes and journals and calendars
And to have the hours and hours of access, you can largely dream of having that sort of access. And I think it's going to produce a fascinating, fascinating book. I think that Washington is going to desperately miss the vibrant center in a Senate in Mitt Romney. We're going to desperately miss Sarah Longwell because she's got to go and we've got to go. Sarah,
Brilliant as always. Come back often. Everybody should listen to the focus group when it drops on Saturday, because that should be once you're finished with Hacks on Tap, that ought to be your go to place for really understanding what's going on in this country during this election. Sarah, thanks. Thanks, guys. So fun. See you. Talk soon.