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Welcome to half time I'm Scott Wapner front center this hour the stormy stock market. And how to navigate all of this uncertainty. Again this week we will trade it with the investment committee. Joining me for the hour today Joe Terranova Steve Weiss Bryn Talkington Josh Brown good to have everybody with us we will check the markets.
We're pacing. The Dow is for its worst month since September of 22. S&P and NASDAQ, their worst month since November of 22. You get the story. I mean, it's been another week where uncertainty reigns supreme. Nike this morning giving terrible guidance, or yesterday. FedEx cutting its forecast. Transport's down five weeks in a row. Gold's been surging lately. You've got tariffs looming. I don't know if that's going to be a liberation day for stocks. I'll tell you that. But we'll try and put it all in perspective tomorrow.
Bryn, what's your take here after yet another week that leaves us feeling a bit uncertain about where we're all heading?
I agree with you. I don't think April 2nd is going to be a liberation day for Scott's stocks. And so I think that tells you that we are going to be range bound into how much we can actually move higher. And so I think once again, if you look back at 2018, we saw eight drawdowns in 2018 between 5% and 15%. Half of those were between 10% and 15%.
yet the year ended down about 5%. And so I think you could easily, not that it's a perfect analog, but very similar because a lot of tariff talks, the Fed was inside of 2018. And so I think investors just need to underrate that this is going to be a volatile year and there's no guarantee stocks go, they don't go higher every year. But that volatility creates opportunities and that's the way I'm seeing this year. But I definitely, if you look at a Nike stock,
I think you want to be very judicious about Nike has their own personal issues. Then they have tariff issues. Then they have China competitive issues. So I think when you're looking to take new positions or add to positions, understand the backdrop and the headwinds that a lot of these U.S. companies are going to face as we have so much manufacturing that actually happens overseas. Joe, you want to I mean, you look at Bank of America's flow show data today, OK?
biggest weekly inflow into stocks of the year. So people are buying the dip, they're playing for the bounce. What would be your case to make of why you should buy stocks now? If you look at Nike and take it in total with the other consumer facing brands that have issued either warnings or caution. If you look at the move in gold,
If you know that April 2nd is looming, and looming large, like a storm blowing in from the distance,
What's the bull case for buying stocks now? Buying stocks immediately this week. You have to believe that over the long term, and when I say the long term, over the next six to 12 months, you are actually going to implement tax policy. You have to believe that we will not enter a earnings recession, that in fact, earnings will stay strong. You have to believe that the tariffs were nothing more than a negotiation.
I will say this, I thought last week was the week that we would bottom. I'm somewhat discouraged by the price action this week. As Bryn highlighted, we are clearly in a range between $5,500 and $5,700. We're in a five-week deleveraging period that has not ended when you're looking at the Mag 7 and technology names. And I think something very critical, FedEx, Nike, Lenar,
all saying the same thing. And here comes earnings season. And what has been the one supportive element in 2025? Earnings. And I truly believe the earnings season is not going to be about what you delivered for earnings and revenue growth. It's going to be about, hey,
Our guidance, it's not going to look so good. I think earnings estimates have to come down. So I still think we've got here over the next 30 days a very challenging environment that probably means a lot of capital goes to the bond market. I think their expectations are already coming down. Not enough. Not anywhere near enough. I think the totality of what you're going to hear in the upcoming earnings season is going to be just like the
The rest of this year has been a recalibration. I think that's going to be a recalibration in terms of what earnings are going to look like. Okay. So if I said to you, Weiss, what's the bull case? I hear from people, well, the bull case is that the Fed put is alive and well. And that's the feeling that Powell, the chair, left you with this week, that if the economy, we're going to tolerate a little higher inflation. And there's no reason why the stock market can't tolerate inflation.
a little higher inflation. The Fed is not going to tolerate a deteriorating economy and labor market. And at the first whiff of real trouble, they're going to cut. And they kind of made that case. I mean, that's the belief that people have. Is that strong enough to offset the other weights
the headwinds in our faces. No. And the reason is, I think that was a very optimistic view of what Powell laid out. And there are conditions to that. Let inflation run a little hotter. We've seen that before, and that's fine because we're at a level now where we can see an uptick in inflation. We just don't know how big that uptick is going to be. And I'm cautious on that being at a level where the Fed can, in fact, cut.
So what he's saying, though, is that we will cut if things get out of control. He's not looking at the stock market in that case, right? He's looking at the economy. Well, he's looking at the credit markets. They're keeping their eye on credit spreads, money markets, as the chair mentioned himself, when they do the easing off of the QT, right? Because that's an indication of the economy going lower.
But, you know, we've had spreads that have been so tight for so long. See a little widening is just natural. Well, it raises an alarm bell, right? You don't want to see that once they start widening, you don't want to see them...
It depends. We're not seeing a widening now or default where you have that. So I just don't think there's any reason to go into the market, even if we get through April 2nd. Say April 2nd is not as bad as we think it will be or some think it will be. You still have what it's going to do to the economy, what inflation will do to the economy, what ongoing trade wars will do to the economy. Don't forget, that's just what we're going to say on April 2nd. It's not the responses.
So I just don't think that there's any real reason to put money to work here. Any sale I've made has been a great sale. And any time I thought of going in, I'm glad I didn't. You just don't know if it's going to be more bark than bite.
You're not going to know until the second. What we do know is that, Josh, the economy is slowing. There seems to be no doubt about that. And Jeffrey Gundlach told me yesterday that he thinks it's going to get worse. Let's listen. I think the chance of recession is higher than most people believe. I actually think it's higher than 50% coming in the next few quarters.
So Josh S. Gundlach, he said, you know, when I followed up on that, well, actually 50 to 60 percent is what he sees. He says they've been decreasing their leverage at double line to the lowest ever that they've had. He does think that high yield spreads are going to widen more. He talked about what he prefers in terms of bonds. And he also doesn't think that the correction in the multiple of the market is finished.
Yeah, I think it's important to listen to Gunlock on that spreads comment because if you think that the next shoe is about to drop, that's probably where it drops. We really have seen very, very tame spreads. We really haven't seen anything blow out yet. We haven't seen any bodies float to the surface. And that's like...
the thing that's been missing, and by the way, it was missing in 2022. And I would just remind you, Judge, all the bond guys were saying 75% chance of a recession in 23, 100% chance. So, you know, we've had these bouts before where it just looks all but certain. So it's important to just understand, like, people can change their minds. And you have to take recession calls with a grain of salt.
especially when they're coming from the corner of the market where they come most frequently. So I'm trying to keep an open mind that we don't necessarily have to have a recession, but I want to agree with what Joe and Weiss said about
the earnings problem because forget about Nike. Nike's been a basket case. It's had three negative years in a row for the first time ever. And they have their own problems. And I don't think the economy is going to bail Nike out. Look at FedEx. This one is meaningful. So they beat on revenue, $22.2 billion.
versus 21.9 billion expected, but they miss on earnings. Capital spending forecast reduced to 4.9 billion, but then they lower full year guidance. And this is now the third consecutive quarter that FedEx is lowering their full year guidance for this year that we're in right now, 2025.
If you read the stories, it's very obvious why. They had this carve out from the last bout with tariffs where there was this de minimis exemption for low value shipments. We don't know if that's gonna happen this time. That was revoked and maybe they get it back.
It's like day to day. If you told me tomorrow they're going to get this de minimis exemption, FedEx probably goes up 11 percent. You tell me tomorrow the White House says in no uncertain terms, nope, you're not getting it. It could have another 11, 12 percent to drop. How do you expect the CEO of FedEx to forecast anything? Speaking of, I'm going to interrupt you for a minute because I do, Josh, pardon me, but I want to go to the White House. Our Megan Casella.
President Trump is making some new comments regarding tariffs, so we'll get that now. Megan, what are we learning? Hey, Scott. So a big moment here in the Oval Office. President Trump is speaking with reporters and taking several questions on trade as well as other topics and on tariffs. For what might be the first time by my count, he is offering, he is appearing to offer some flexibility when it comes to those April 2nd tariffs. He was asked this
specifically about whether he will be offering any exemptions or exceptions. He said that many people, many companies are coming to him and asking for that. And he referenced how a couple of weeks ago he offered the auto company some relief when it came to Canada and Mexico. When it comes to April 2nd, he said, and I quote, there will be flexibility. So he was emphasizing that he's not changing his mind on the tariffs themselves. But he said, for what I think is the first time, that there will be flexibility
flexibility when it comes to exemptions and exceptions. He was also asked a couple of times about China specifically, whether there was anything that China or Chinese President Xi Jinping could do to either head off additional tariffs or reduce the 20% tariffs that President Trump has so far added. He said, we can talk. And he also said he'll be speaking to President Xi and that they have a great relationship. So not committing there to making any changes on the China front, but also again, opening the door and allowing potentially some negotiations, some flexibility
on China as well. So a big moment here. I will say that for company, for industries and for investors, this should come as a major, I guess, sign of relief or if perhaps that's too premature, at least a window of opportunity here to potentially see some changes between now and April 2nd. Scott. Megan, thank you. Megan Casella at the White House for us. Weiss, I mean,
That's why we raise the issue of whether, you know, the bark is worse than the bite. Because you just don't know whether a social media post which says Liberation Day is coming, these tariffs are coming, but then as Megan was reporting to us, the idea that the president says there will be flexibility, quote unquote, we can talk. You're just not really going to know until the second, which in some respects, I would guess,
puts a paralysis, if you will, on investing decisions. Not only on investment decisions, but on capital expenditures from companies. So you could say, OK, maybe the market's got it wrong. Maybe it's too pessimistic. But ultimately, this is feeding into the economy. Markets off the lows, by the way. I know, nicely off the lows. I've been watching. There's a stock I want to talk about there, which has been doing quite well. Just do it now. Meta.
So, Meta seems to have bottomed. If you take a look at it yesterday out of the gate, it was up over 4% now when the market sold off, came down. But we see the constant move higher or lessening losses today, and Meta is front and center. The other one that is, is Netflix. Netflix continues to act well. So, those are sort of somewhat as much as you can be insulated from the tariffs, insulated somewhat from the economy.
Don't forget Netflix, that you can go to their ad-supported model. You're not getting rid of your streaming because you've cut the cord already. So, you know, and the other factor is, look, I think there's too much focus on will we be in a recession. You can wait to decide that when you're in a recession. You come out of it. It's what's the direction. Is it the direction of a higher economy or a decline?
declining economy. That's what I'm focused on. That's what I continue to see. And earnings that we're seeing today from the retailers and what we've seen are just a microcosm. Expand that to the S&P at large. So that's why I'm not putting money in. Well, I mean, Joe, China tariffs are the greatest wild card in this whole conversation because of the
the importance that China plays in the global economy relative to the companies that we have here that rely so heavily on it. Yes. Like an apple. Let's do an intraday of Apple. I just I want to see if there is an intraday move on the headlines. You can see the Nasdaq's bouncing.
Theoretically, you've had a move in all parts of tech. There's Apple, for example, which gives you a good idea of maybe some of the relief from the commentary out of the Oval Office today. So I think one of the reasons why that Bank of America flow study shows that investors continue to buy equities is I really think when people think about tariffs, they view tariffs as nothing more than a transitory
variable in which it's a negotiation. I don't think people actually believe that these tariffs are going to stay in place for an extended period of time. And think about it. Two of the largest exporters to the United States, Germany and China, both of their equity markets are up double digits year to date. So I think there is this skepticism and
And the overwhelming consensus believes the tariffs are really not going to be put in place. And if that's the case, OK, then you could look at equities here and you could potentially find some opportunities. But I'm just concerned that we might have already done the damage as it relates to what we're going to hear in the upcoming earnings season. I don't understand what you're saying. Are you saying that even if tariffs come on, if they get applied to the imports, that they'll go away? They're temporary?
I just said that, yeah. Well, I disagree. And that's fact. In fact, not what's not occurred. If you look at the tariffs that we put on China, they came in during Trump's administration and they continued through the Biden administration. I understand that. I'm back from Florida. I'm nice and relaxed. I'm not looking to argue. I'm telling you. Just listen. I'm telling you the reason why I think people are still buying equities, because I think that the consensus thinks that
The consensus has skepticism that these tariffs are nothing more than a negotiation and temporary, that they're not going to be there for an extended period. Joe, I'm not going to argue. This is not an argument, and I suggest you go back to Florida if you don't want to have any discussion. But here's the story. The story is you said tariffs won't be permanent. Tariffs have been permanent. I'm just not going to do this today. Tariffs have been permanent on China, number one. People aren't buying tariffs.
Stocks are continuing to go down. Steve, we just did a Bank of America study that showed fund flows. People are buying stocks. Like, listen to the show. Where do you see it? Scott just read it. Listen to the show. Where do you see the markets? I know the markets now. First of all, show me what the correlation is between the fund flows that he talked about and the markets. So then why are we reporting it? Because it's an issue of data points. You should have said. Okay, Josh. I want to ask Steve, Steve,
So I'm a little bit on Joe's side where I think the market is looking at tariffs. Look, not in every individual stock, but just generally speaking, as right now, a temporary annoyance similar to like currency fluctuations, like
We get it. It's not going to be great. It's a lot of earnings uncertainty for this particular quarter, but maybe not a risk to full year numbers yet. And my evidence of that is like, why is Apple not 180? Why is it 214? If we really think this is going to be a full year phenomenon. I also think there's some real politic going on and I'd love your take on it.
Like, Elon Musk makes half his cars in China, and China's his biggest market to sell into. Does Trump seriously want to torpedo Tesla's auto business over this for the full year? It just seems unlikely that we are fully pricing in these times. I don't think the market believes it. That's what these charts would suggest.
Weiss, is there's going to be some level of detente and you're not going to have... Look at six-month VIX. Look, I'm not just... It's not pricing this in for a year.
Okay, but let me come back at it this way. First of all, I agree with what you're saying. Maybe the magnitude, like we saw 200% tariffs, we knew that wouldn't stick, right? 25% tariffs aren't going to stick. But let's take a look at Booz Allen, for example, right? People started buying. They said, oh, this is overstated. So they took the stock up from 110 to 120, right? So they discounted completely. Then what happened?
Then what came out from DOD was that the top 10 firms have to talk to us about every contract they have and the stock traded down 20%. But isn't that more representative of those types of stocks that were facing that kind of headwind? It is representative of those stocks. If I said to you, okay,
let's assume that what the president says there will be flexibility let's say that there is flexibility and we don't get i know you know you
I don't believe that, but let's just say that there is the... Well, I can see it on your face. I'm telling you, I don't believe anything Trump says because he's shown not to live up to his word. Okay, well, let's say in this instance, there will be flexibility as it relates to China. If I told you that that was the outcome, the market likes the prospect of that happening. Do you buy the, what was the magnificent to mediocre now, seven? Because those are the stocks that are moving the most. That, that,
That's always been my case. Buy the Mac 7 because they're insulated, with the exception of Apple. I'm not buying Apple. I sold Apple.
I just mentioned meta. There are some other issues in there that relate solely to certain stocks like Google. Google is losing share in search. So you can't buy them blanketly like you could a year ago or two years ago. So I think it really bottoms up at a syncretic risk in each stock that you have to take hold of.
But, you know, you take a look at Europe. Europe is preparing. Take a look at Canada. They are preparing for some tariffs to be permanent. But what they are preparing for is an environment that is encroaching upon them in terms of not being very stable, that they don't know where the U.S. is going to go. So it's forcing them, for example, to approve a trillion dollars spent in Germany. It's not just defense. No, but that's why people—that's one reason why people think there's better—
stock market returns coming out of Europe. Right. So you can't have both ways. You can't say that the U.S., hey, we're just kidding on tariffs and have Europe, you
you know, do what we're doing. And by the way, on-shoring has been a trend since COVID. It's been a monster trend. I understand that, but why do you think the president is talking about flexibility as it relates to China? Because China's a much more important market in many different ways than the whole of the European continent is. Because he's responding to what people have said to him. He responds to what Musk is whispering to him. We'll see if it happens, right?
There's lots of things going on there. I mean, you've given, according to the Journal, you've given Musk access to our plans against China defense plans. So, obviously, Musk has them wrapped around his finger, so maybe he does protect them in China. But it doesn't mean the Chinese people will still be buying the cars. All I know, Bryn, is that, you know, the market's reacting to the headline that Megan Casella brought us.
If you look at, you know, some of these stocks have just been decimated from their highs. Nvidia is down 20, almost 25 percent from its high. Alphabet's 21, Meta's 20, Amazon's 20. The stocks have been in full correction, in some cases, bear market mode, like Tesla, for example. But if I told you that the worst fears of a trade war with China might not materialize,
Would you feel better? Is that a reason to right back to the beginning of the show? Is that a reason to be bullish and buy stocks? This too will pass. This administration doesn't want to tank the stock market for the entirety of their four year run. Absolutely. And first of all, the U.S. is like a 10 times as big as a as a Titanic. And so China is incredibly important to us and we are incredibly important to China.
And so I agree. I think you said it, Scott, or maybe Josh said, if we really thought that this was going to manifest itself, Apple would not be at 214. They make everything at Foxconn, right? And they can say they have new plants in India, et cetera, but majority of their stuff that's imported back to the U.S. is made in China. And I think the market would sniff that out.
I believe that President Trump wants a deal. And so I think that China is 10 times more important than Canada. Europe is about NATO and about them paying their fair share. And so that's where you're obviously getting Germany having much more defense spending, which is probably like two decades late. But that is a great thing for the West overall. And so I think that as an investor, understand that there's going to be a lot of curveballs here. I
I don't think the president is being dogmatic. I think he is being pragmatic. He wants a deal. But the deal within each country is incredibly diverse and distinct for different reasons. But I think getting clarity on China and Mexico as well, because we do manufacture and receive so many goods, are two of the most important countries to have that reconciled.
And by the way, Josh, Tom Lee, he thinks you get that tariff stuff out of the way on the second. And he's going to join me on closing bell. We'll get more of his views and certainly in more detail that you can have a rally. The other question is, we've had this 10 percent pullback in the S&P. You've had a pullback as well in the forward P.E. of the S&P from 22 and a half to 20 times.
Maybe that's a reason to be bullish, I would ask investors. Has the multiple on the market corrected enough?
Yeah. Oh, and by the way, for Joe and Steve, I'm still in Florida and totally ready to fight anytime. Tom Lee told us in the summer of 2016 when people were saying the same exact thing they're saying now, why would I buy the market with this Brexit vote coming up? Who would be stupid enough to want to take risk? The entire European Union is about to come apart.
Tom Lee was saying, no, no, no, no, no, you don't understand. I don't care what the outcome is. All the stock market wants is an outcome. And actually, the outcome was a shock. It was negative. They voted for Brexit. You know what the stock market did? It ripped for the next six months right through the first Trump election. The footsie, the British stock market made record highs shortly after that happened. So I think Tom is on to something.
We have no idea what April 2nd is. They could change their minds six times between now and then and four times the next day. We just don't know. I do think the market is waiting for there to be an answer. Even if it's a quote-unquote worst-case scenario, it's like, all right, fine. Now we know what we're dealing with. We're not happy, but the
The mystery is put aside. So I don't know that I would want to bet against what Tom is saying. I don't want to bet on it. But you asked the question, like, why would you buy the market? Well, that's a pretty good reason. This big bad event that's like 10 days away might come and go. And people might say, all right, thank God that's over. Next, let's buy Meta.
That's a thing that's happened before. You flip the script. You flip the script. You sell the rumor. You buy the news. But I don't disagree with what Josh is saying. And, in fact, we see that repeatedly. You sell the positive news, right, and you buy the negative news events. So I don't disagree. My focus is a little more past that, which is on the economy, which is on earnings. So this is a great trading market, by the way. So I agree with that. All right.
All right, let's do this. Let's squeeze a break in. We have calls of the day coming up. We've got some crypto to talk about, which we will certainly do. And some new reporting as well on that Alphabet Wiz deal. Back after this. How will you shape the future of consumer products in retail with confidence? Behind every favorite product or seamless checkout, there's a series of strategic decisions to make.
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All right, a bit of a different market story at this moment than we started out with today. Those comments from the Oval Office today by President Trump regarding tariffs and maybe some flexibility around April 2nd, moving the market. No question about that, because you can see, yes, we are still red. NASDAQ was briefly green. Many stocks within the NASDAQ comp services declined.
for certain have moved higher as well. So we'll watch all of that. We're watching the financials, too. They've bounced nicely this week. Second best sector week to date. You bought more Bank of America, Mr. Weiss. I did, and I would have bought more Goldman as well, but it's a very full position. Look, Bank of America has been a relatively small position for me for a while. I've owned it for a long time. But I look at deregulation
is definitely going to impact the financials and the banks. So I'm not looking for them, as I said before, to lower their underwriting standards, and I'm not looking for the loan book to grow. I'm actually looking for it to shrink a little bit. However, I do believe that they are so well capitalized that they will buy back more shares and that these stocks are cheap and could essentially be a safe haven
You know, because that all the big risks are in the private credit portfolios. They're not sitting on the major bank balance sheets. Josh, I want to talk to you about a couple of stocks that are doing quite well of late. The exchanges from the group ice record high today. CME a record high a couple of days ago. You've now taken them off your best stocks in the market list.
Presumably because they've had the move that you thought they might. No, they're on. I apologize for the confusion. These names are on and staying on. Oh, they're still on. Okay. My bad. The one that's fallen off but I'm still long is NASDAQ. So of the three major exchange stocks, wouldn't you know it, I bought the wrong one. I'm up in NASDAQ. I've owned it for a while.
NASDAQ really needs for there to be listings. That's like the key to that business. CME and Intercontinental Ice, these two stocks are absolutely on fire. They're in the top 10 performers in the S&P 500 year to date. CME is up 14 percent, ICE up 16 percent. These companies thrive on volatility and volatility.
heavy trading volumes and I think all all of us could agree that is the environment right now volumes are going nuts and volatility has not only spiked but it's remaining high and that's the environment where these stocks outperform not only the financial sector but outperform almost the entire market at this point from the S&P 500's peak on February 19th judge
The S&P is down 8.7%. CME is up 6%. ICE is up 4% in that time. So if you're looking for a safe haven within financials and you think this volatility stays with us throughout the spring and summer, I think these stocks remain bid. They're both on the best stocks in the market list. All right. You still with me? I agree with you. You're with me. Talk to me, Goose. So...
I agree with that. I think you could add Interactive Brokers to that list as well. Well, you own CME and Interactive. Yes. Interactive Brokers has cheapened up significantly. I just think the trading activity is going to stay strong. Stephen's buying Bank of America. Let's remember you have Merrill Lynch embedded in there as well. So Merrill Lynch...
uh i think is on par with morgan stanley and goldman sachs i think people when they think of bank of america don't really think about that but interactive brokers has cheapened up nicely it's running right above the 200-day moving average i mentioned it last week and probably in the next couple of days i'll take a position there you guys need to hug it out we always check it out he came back from florida early to to do us a solid
Yeah, I thought you guys had to train for the fight. Courtney Reagan has the headlines for us. Hey, Courtney. Hi there, Scott. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said a U.N. peacekeeping mission is not an alternative to either the deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine or security guarantees to end the war against Russia. In a joint press conference today with Czech President Zelensky added the United Nations would not be able to protect Ukraine from Russia returning and occupying the country once again.
Iran's supreme leader warned Friday that U.S. threats against his country's nuclear program, quote, will get them nowhere. The warning from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which came during a live televised speech, comes as the Iranian foreign minister said Thursday it was still weighing its response to a letter from President Trump reported by Axios that gave Iran two months to reach a nuclear deal.
And President Trump said today the Small Business Administration will take over the federal government's student loan portfolio from the Department of Education. It comes as The Wall Street Journal reports the SBA is planning to cut more than 40 percent of its workforce as part of an agency wide reorganization. Scott, back to you. All right, Court, thank you very much for that. Courtney Reagan up next, the cyber gold rush on full display this week.
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All right. We wanted to check in on some cyber stocks. They have been in the mix of late and they've gotten off the mat a little bit today for sure. Zscaler is now positive. CrowdStrike was lower than it is now. It's been a big week in that space. As you know, given Alphabet's $32 billion deal for Wiz, its largest acquisition ever.
And one interesting sidebar is how the whole thing came together after Google's initial offer for $23 billion was rebuffed over the summer. We're learning some more details on that. Back in January, Wiz hired its first ever CFO.
A man named Fossil Merchant who brought with him many years of experience in the capital markets. He kept relationships with top bankers and had a track record of high stakes deal making. He was heavily involved in negotiating the transaction when DirecTV was sold to AT&T back in 2015. And a year later did the same while at DreamWorks in its deal with NBC Universal.
One thing that might have helped this deal cross the finish line, according to a person familiar, is that Merchant secured term sheets from several reputable investors at lofty valuations. And he was also able to attract interest from other strategic parties considering their own bids. In other words, key leverage in negotiating the deal with Alphabet. The result? $9 billion more than initially offered and the highest multiple ever paid for a company of Wiz's size.
Just shows you how much demand there is going to be, there is now, and will still be for cyber-related companies. They've been volatile. Josh, as you know, Morgan Stanley today says, guess who's back against a volatile market backdrop? Security looks poised to regain its safe haven status. This was a watershed moment maybe this week.
In that whiz deal, Google willing to pay as much as it did. It just shows you why there continues to be so much interest in these names from investors, including you.
Yeah, there's actually a subsector or perhaps you'd call it an industry group within S&P technology called infrastructure software stocks. And if you look at that basket, 50% of them actually have gains on the year. Again, keep in mind, that's in a tape where the XLK is...
uh... is the most negative sector uh... other than discretionary so these stocks have bought the tech sector the median year-to-date return for those infrastructure uh... software stocks is flat crowd strike which is my pick in the group is the third best performer among that entire cohort it's up about seven percent year-to-date and as brian and i and many others on the show have been saying for about four years now
This is the only line item that is not up for discussion when the board of any Fortune 500 company, any sovereign, any municipality takes a meeting about where they can cut costs. This is like the most sacrosanct part of the conversation.
part of the tech stack. I don't see what makes that change anytime soon. This is literal out of business risk if you get hacked badly enough. So yeah, I get the multiple and I get why these stocks have looked so good relative to their peers. Bryn, you've expressed your view through the bug ETF rather than play individual names. But really this week was pivotal, I think, in the overall belief that
despite the volatility of what these stocks can continue to do. Yeah, and just to put some numbers on Bug to echo what Josh said, Bug is up 4.5% year-to-date. So nice contra return to the broad market. I will say this team at Wiz, it's really exceptional. They sold a company, a cybersecurity company, to Microsoft about 10 years ago, and then they only built, they only created Wiz in 2020.
And so I think this is what happens when you have this exceptional team of expertise and this is a secular trend. And I think what will be interesting to see if the deal goes through, I mean, Wiz's current client base includes Oracle, Microsoft,
AWS, Azure. And so if they're able to execute, I feel like this will be the most important. I guess it's, I get it's the most expensive. I think this will be the most important acquisition from Google since double-clicking YouTube. So I think if it goes through, I think it could be a real game changer and will be like really instantly accretive to their ability to be able to bring in new business. All right. We'll take a quick break. Santoli, he's on the other side with his midday word. We're back right after this.
All right, senior markets commentator Mike Santoli, he is at the desk right now for his midday word. The midday words, there will be flexibility from the president seem to have...
Soothed the market a bit. Yes, actually at 10:00 a.m. I said look you have to have it within your Probability set that the president sort of pulls the punch to some degree on tariffs not because you have some kind of insight that that will happen or be likely but because you never know and Uncertainty doesn't mean we should keep this in mind. You have peak uncertainty in every respect but uncertainty doesn't mean bad things will surely happen and
So I think it was a good test of where the market's head is at. What I find interesting is if I look at the biggest losers on the S&P, let's say on one month, we basically peaked a month ago,
It's not the list you would say, wow, that's all about tariffs, right? I mean, it's a lot of airlines. It's a lot of consumer-linked travel, things like that. Obviously, some big tech that's just stumbled or earnings losers. My point is that even though tariffs is kind of like the major psychological barrier for people to get more comfortable, it's not, to me, something that the market has principally been contending with. So
I think it's a little more of a complex setup. I keep pointing to last week's low as like a credible or plausible low for this correction, but not necessarily one where you say,
Close your eyes and buy. That was the sure thing. But I still feel like you have the, you know, the potential of 10 days of paralysis until you actually see what happens. Nobody's going to have a high conviction call on exactly how this breaks. And so, yeah, I think it's going to therefore, you know, sort of be capped and keep, you know, probably just kind of like...
dog on a leash running in either direction. Yeah. All right. I will. I'll see you on closing bell. Good stuff. Mike Santoli straight ahead. We're on Bitcoin watch yet again. The SEC's new crypto task force is holding its first ever regulation roundtable today. Just a few moments from now. Tonight, McKeel is going to break down exactly what to watch for next.
We're back. We are watching Bitcoin today yet again. The SEC's new crypto task force gets ready to kick off today. First ever regulation roundtable. Taneya McKeel joins us now with what we can expect and what you'll be watching for.
Yeah, Scott, it's the first in a series of discussions the task force is hosting, and today's is about defining the security status of crypto assets. This issue is at the heart of the industry's problem with the former administration's SEC. It targeted many companies for their involvement with crypto, alleging most coins were unregistered securities, but failing to give clear guidelines to follow to avoid being targeted. This could be most interesting for Ether ETFs. The SEC already said last month meme coins are not securities. The appetite for ETH ETFs
That's been tepid compared to Bitcoin ETFs. And one of the big reasons is the inability to earn a staking yield on those funds. Many see staking as a next step in crypto ETFs. If the SEC can iron out some of the uncertainties about those services being potential unregistered securities. Otherwise, you know, like I said about the meme coins, the SEC has sent several highly positive signals and investors are seeking reassurance, I think, that they will remain supportive.
supportive, hoping maybe that this event will be sort of a no news is good news event. Scott? All right. You'll bring us some updates as you have them today. Thank you today, Mikhail. All right, Bryn, you get the first crack here. What's your what's your take? We haven't talked about Bitcoin all that much in the last handful of days or so. What's your current view? I mean, it seems to be really anchored around the level it's been trading.
Yeah, right now it's dancing on the 200-day, which is right around 84,000. So I think we have to watch that. Obviously, there's not true fundamentals with Bitcoin or any of the cryptocurrencies. So I really do look at technicals on this. Let's see if it can dance and bounce off that 200-day. But I think you still have a risk-off environment. And for whatever people say,
Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies are risk on and risk off. And right now it's risk off. If it can hold the 200-day, that's great longer term. I will say Ethereum to me is the one that's more peculiar. It's just been left out, left for dead. And so I know there are some big short positions with hedge funds, but the Ethereum versus Bitcoin has really not been a competition. Bitcoin has clearly outperformed.
Yeah, Josh, if you look at the one month, you can see the sideways move, really. That's why I've said it's pretty much been anchored around, you know, 83-ish thousand.
Yeah, you know what's hilarious about this whole thing? Just like in the stock market, the biggest winners are the most boring industries. You know what's way more exciting than anything crypto this year? Gold. It's like this revenge of the analog technologies. It's kind of fascinating. Gold broke $3,000. This Bitcoin's been sitting here in the low $80,000 range.
ETH nobody talks about anymore. Solana is an afterthought. So sometimes people are in the mood for the oldies. You know what I mean? Sometimes you just want to hear a little bit of Zeppelin. I hear you. The oldies but goodies. All right, finals are next.
All right, 3 o'clock closing bell today. We'll have a good one. Tom Lee, Ed Yardeni, Cameron Dawson, Eric Jackson. A lot to talk about. Dow's positive, NASDAQ's positive. There will be flexibility. That's what the president said in the Oval today. And that has the market rallying, or at least trying to, certainly rallying off the lows. Final trades. Bryn, you're up. Robinhood. And you can also sell the June 50 calls and get $4, almost 10% of premium yield for just under three months. All right, Josh Brown.
Kinsale Capital. I feel like this stock goes up like every day. It's crazy. Okay. Tommy Hearns. Meta. Look, I think the stock's bottomed and it looks pretty cheap right now. Okay. Marvin Hagler. Yum China. If there's flexibility, you want to own Germany, you want to own China, and you want to own stocks in the U.S. Okay. I call this bout a draw. I'll see you at closing bell.
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