Tom Bevan of RealClearPolitics: "This Race Is Getting Closer"
22:19 Share

It's time to take the quiz. Five questions, five minutes a day, five days a week. Take the quiz every weekday at thequiz.fox and then listen to the quiz podcast to find out how you did. Play, share, and of course, listen to the quiz at thequiz.fox. It's live in the Breen with host of Fox News at Night, Shannon Breen.

Okay, as we are talking on this week's Live in the Green podcast, we are inside of two weeks for the 2020 presidential election. Of course, that impacts a lot of other things, Senate and House races as well. We, ladies and gentlemen, have an expert for you to break it all down. Tom Bevin, the co-founder and president of Real Clear Politics, joins us with some insightful data and some help looking at the trends. Hey, Tom. Hi, Shannon. How are you? I'm good.

I'm very good. I got to imagine like all of us who follow this stuff, this is crunch time for you. Let's talk about what you do and how you guys have a really interesting site where you compile all kinds of different data, different polls. You put together interesting averages so people can track these things. Tell us what you're seeing. Well, yeah.

Right now, it looks like the race is tightening. And that's kind of how this usually goes, that, you know, as voters really get dialed in and start making decisions, the number of undecided voters goes down and the vote shares go up. And we're seeing right now, just to take a look, for example, at our RealClearPolitics national average,

You know, it was over 10 points a couple of weeks ago. Biden's lead was 10.3 percentage points on October 11th. So here we are 10 days later and his lead is down to about seven and a half. But of course, we don't have national elections. We have 50 state elections and we're seeing the same thing in these battleground states. Again, we're tracking the top six battlegrounds.

which are Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and then the upper Midwest trio of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. And what we're seeing there is Joe Biden's lead on average in those six states is 3.9 percentage points. That is actually almost exactly where Hillary Clinton was at this point four years ago. So I

I know people are talking about, well, it could be a Biden blowout and landslide and all that. And that's certainly still a possibility. But it looks like this race is getting closer. And I think we'll continue to see that trend for the next two weeks. And I think we're in for a really close election, almost a repeat of 2016.

Okay, so I think that battleground tracker is really interesting. I'm glad you guys have that up and running because I think it's most people would agree it's much more accurate or indicative of what we need to look at versus the overall national polling, which when you're scooped by states like North Carolina and California, places that the Republicans never expect to win,

probably not in my lifetime. You know, those background states are really helpful. And so looking at that compared to 2016, also very helpful. What do you make of this talk of the quote, so-called shy Trump voter? It seems like, well, I should let you, the expert, talk about this. But you know, there are some polling units, as you know, Trafalgar is getting a lot of attention because they say they've done a better job at being able to

dig out that voter who either may not want to talk to a pollster or may mislead the pollster. Is that enough to really skew these numbers? Well, I mean, that's sort of unknowable until November 4th or maybe even beyond that when we get the final counts in. I mean, what we do know, though, is if you go back and look,

In 2016, Donald Trump did overperform his final polls in all of these battleground states. In fact, the only state that he didn't actually overperform in was Arizona. He actually came in about a half a point below where the final polls were. But in Florida, he overperformed by a point. In North Carolina, it was two and a half. In Pennsylvania, it was 2.8. And in Wisconsin, which was sort of the big one, it was, I think, over seven percentage points.

So the question is, you know, will Donald Trump overperform the polls, you know, in those in those same amounts or a similar degree this time around? I don't know. I don't know.

I think he might. I'm not sure if he will or not. Some of these pollsters have adjusted there and are waiting for education. That was one of the big things in 2016, right? We had this shift in non-college educated voters, particularly white voters, which the upper Midwest is filled with.

which moved, those are folks who had voted for Obama in 2008 or 2012 or both, and really moved for Donald Trump. And he's not doing as well with those voters this time around. Still, the support's very, very strong, which is not as strong as it was, doesn't appear to be as it was in 2016. And conversely, you had this shift with college-educated voters, which had been traditionally Republican voters, had moved toward Hillary Clinton, and Biden appears to be doing well with those voters.

voters as well. The two interesting groups that are getting a lot of attention this year, right, are seniors, where Trump doesn't appear to be doing as well with seniors in some of the battleground state polling than he did in 2016. But he is doing better with minorities. It appears he's, you know, the Trump campaign is convinced that Donald Trump is going to win, you know, more of the African American vote this time than he did last time, maybe even double digits, and more Hispanic voters than he did

Um, and they expect him to win more. And that would be the most for a Republican presidential candidate in, uh, you know, that we can remember among Hispanics. I mean, George W. Bush got, I think 40% or so Trump's not going to get that, but he is doing, it appears to be doing better with those groups. And that's sort of offsetting, uh, some of the, some of the movement in some of the other categories. But, um, as far as the shy Trump voters go, uh,

Look, Trafalgar, I've talked to Robert Cahaly at Trafalgar Group too. He says he's seeing this social desirability bias as much or more this time than he saw four years ago. He was the only pollster to really figure it out and get it right in Pennsylvania and Michigan last time around.

I'm sorry, meaning that people are they hesitate to say where they're out because they're worried about the social impact of saying that they're a voter. Right. Yeah, because they don't want to tell pollsters the truth because, you know, it's seen as not being socially desirable. It's stigmatized to say that you're going to vote for Trump.

Um, and that's what, you know, part of that is, um, you know, Trafalgar says that, well, they do a couple of things. One, they do very, they're, they don't ask a lot of questions because, you know, a lot of folks, and they're trying to get people who, who haven't, um,

who haven't been involved in the process, right? Most pollsters will say, you know, declare you a likely voter if you voted in the last election. And they'll ask you that question. Trafalgar's finding people and locating people who have not participated in past elections. So he's doing a bit of a different thing. And again, he was right last time. So I think we have to pay attention to him. His polls are at odds with, he's finding a lot more Trump support in the upper Midwest than some of these other pollsters. But

But I think, you know, we'll know we won't know until until the final votes are counted, whether whether there is this hidden cache of of Trump supporters, whether they're saying they're currently undecided, whether they're saying they're voting for third party and then voting for Trump or whether they're just not telling pollsters. We won't know that. Mm hmm.

Okay, so what about early voting, mail-in ballots, absentee? Does that skew any of what you're trying to measure or all these different polls are trying to measure? No, I mean, pollsters are now asking, have you already voted? And so those are, they're factoring that into their samples. I do think there's, we went through this in 2016 too, Shannon. I mean, a lot of people, you see these

reports from states, oh, so, you know, Democrats are way ahead in the early vote here or Republicans are doing better in the early vote than they expected here. I really think it's sort of futile to try and read the tea leaves of early voting and figure out what that means for election day. I mean, it's just...

It's not a good data point. It's really not because you don't know if those voters, they're probably cannibalizing voters who would otherwise show up on election day. These are not new voters. And now you factor in with the absentee and the mail-in balloting. And I just don't know that that's going to tell us a lot about what's going to happen. We do know from polls that Democrats say that

majorities of Democrats say that they are using, going to use the mail-in option and absentee option, whereas Republicans by, you know, big margins, I think two-thirds, three-quarters say they're going to show up on election day to vote. So, you know, Donald Trump talks about this red wave that's coming on election day. I think there will be a red wave on election day because most Republicans will go to the polls on election day. The question is just whether it'll be

you know, how big it'll be and whether it'll be enough to offset the Democrats that show up on election day and all the Democrats that are voting via mail-in and absentee. Okay, something else that we always like to watch and find to be interesting is the enthusiasm gap. We know that President Trump, people who are committed to him,

have consistently polled as being more excited about their candidate, about getting to the polls. But we also know, just like people say they hate negative ads, but we know they work, we know that the resistance enthusiasm or the excitement about getting rid of President Trump, that there are plenty of voters who identify with that as well. What can you tell us about those measurements? Yeah, so...

We're seeing this in all the polls. There is a real enthusiasm gap by like 20 points. Trump supporters say they're more enthusiastic and excited about turning out to vote for their candidate. And that's obviously, I mean, you see that in tangible ways with the parades and the rallies and all that. I mean, Trump supporters are really into that.

and excited about going and voting for him. Conversely, as you mentioned, there's not as much excitement on the Biden, on the side for turning out for Joe Biden. And he's running a sort of different campaign that is not, you know, they're not doing rallies. They're doing these very small events. And so you don't tend to see that reflected. But to your point,

There is this idea of negative partisanship, which is that we've seen growing in American politics, which is I'm turning out not to vote for my guy, but to vote against the other guy. And certainly that's where a lot of Democrats are. They may not express enthusiasm for Joe Biden, but they are enthusiastic about turning out against Donald Trump. The question is, again,

Is that enough? Because, you know, Democrats really hated George W. Bush in 2004, but it was not enough to win them the White House. Republicans really hated Barack Obama in 2012, but it was not enough for them. You know, Obama was able to turn out his base much, much better than a lot of folks thought that he would.

And so the question for Democrats is that negative partisanship, is that enough? And again, these are questions that we won't know the answers to. But but it certainly is true that the Donald Trump supporters are way more fired up about him than than Biden folks are on about their candidate. We'll have more live in the Bream in a moment.

From the Fox News Podcasts Network, subscribe and listen to the Trey Gowdy Podcast. Former federal prosecutor and four-term U.S. congressman from South Carolina brings you a one-of-a-kind podcast. Subscribe and listen now by going to foxnewspodcasts.com.

candidate now President Trump is different than anybody we've seen in modern day politics in that he didn't work his way to the State House, the Senate, anywhere else. He was a businessman, a reality TV show star, a branding expert. Just by virtue of the kind of candidate that he was and is, does it make it harder to pull him accurately just because people have such wildly divergent emotions about him? Yeah, that's a good question. I don't know

I mean, look, we certainly have, there has never been anyone in our lifetimes, maybe in all of politics, who's been as uniquely polarizing as he is. I mean, literally from the day he took office, I think he won 8% of Democrats on election day and his job approval among Democrats has, I don't think it's ever cracked 10%, right? Conversely, Republicans, you know, his support among Republicans has actually grown over time.

And and despite all of the things that we've seen happen over the four years from, you know, the from impeachment to, you know, COVID everything. I mean, if you look at his job approval rating on partisan lines, it is just it's like three flat lines. I mean, they don't hardly even move at all.

despite the sort of day in and day out hyperventilating that goes on by partisans and folks in the media. So we've never seen that before. We've never seen that sort of stability among the partisans in terms of how they view a candidate. And everybody has an opinion about him. There's no one who doesn't. When they ask the question, do you feel strongly about Donald Trump, either approve him strongly or disapprove him strongly, I mean, it's like 45%.

approve strongly and 50% disapprove strongly. I mean, it's almost everybody. They don't just have sort of milquetoast opinions about them. They have very strong opinions about them.

And that goes back to the sort of shy Trump, I think, perhaps because people feel so strongly about him because he's so polarizing that maybe folks are, you know, a little reticent about voicing their opinion about, you know, how they feel about him or whether they're going to potentially vote for him or not. Yeah.

You touched on this a little bit earlier. I'm interested to see what you can tell us about data regarding the Trump campaign continues to say that they are doing better, as you said, for African-Americans with Hispanic voters.

You know, a lot of folks in the mainstream media immediately shoot that down and say, that's just ludicrous. This is crazy. These people of different voting blocs aren't on board with him the way that he says they are or that there's no demonstrable increase in their support. Do you have any data that can tell us, you know, whether that's just bluster or are you seeing it?

Well, you know, it varies from poll to poll. And obviously when you're, you know, when you're polling the, the margin of error among, among the further you drill down into the demographic groups gets bigger. Right. So when you're talking about a group like African-Americans, the margin of error there could be, you know, 5% or 6%. And so when it says, you know, Trump has 8% support among African-Americans, that could actually be 15% or it could be 2%. So I,

I do think, look, we're seeing anecdotally, you know, things like Ice Cube and 50 Cent and, or should I say 50 Cent? We had this debate on the show the other night because listen, I'm almost 50 myself. I feel like I should not be saying 50, but my staff was all like, don't say 50 Cent. I know, right? And I was told that Mr. Cent has said you can say 50 or 50.

Is that right? I feel like I should probably stick with 50. But anyway, you're so nice and proper. You're probably the only person in America who calls him Mr. Scent. Listen, I'm trying to be respectful. But like you said, he and Ice Cube have really shaken up the conversation. You know, Ice Cube's reaction the other night, he's the one who's been working with the president on the stuff that was fitting, who got really upset the other night when he saw the tax brackets and was like, what?

But it's, you know, and telling people, think for yourselves, this party, the Democrats haven't been there for us the way we thought they would. I mean, those are the conversations they're putting out there, whether they're, you know, specifically endorsing Trump or not. Ice Cube has said, I'm definitely not endorsing anybody. Right. You know, but they're sparking a different conversation. Is it just kind of an interesting story or is there more to it? I think there's something to it. I do. And you saw, you know, the number of folks listening

Vernon Jones at the Republican convention, Jack Brewer speaking on behalf of the president and really targeting black men in particular, right? Because they're the group that the Trump campaign thinks are persuadable. I think there is something to that. I think there is a bit of a movement in his direction on that. And again, it doesn't have to be a lot. I mean, if it's just a percentage point or two, it's,

you know, in, in a place like Detroit or Philadelphia or Milwaukee, if those states are going to be really, really close, that could be, you know, it could be decisive. I mean, it could be very helpful to, to the president. So, and certainly we've seen with the Hispanic vote in places like Florida, where it's not just, you know, Trump's doing very well among Cuban Americans and it's not just the Cuban vote. It's, it's,

It's others. It's the Puerto Rican vote. It's the, you know, Hispanics, you know, from South America, I mean, he's close to 50% in some polls. He's actually been leading Biden among Hispanics. So now that's, you know, each state is different. And the Hispanic vote in Florida, as I mentioned, is, is Cuban is Puerto Rican. It's not Mexican American. It's not what, what the vote is in Arizona where Trump is in a real fight to win that state again. And it's probably one he's going to need to hold onto. So again,

you know, it varies, but I do think there is something to the idea that Trump's going to do better among, among minorities than he did in 2016. And again, if it's a close race, it could be, it could be the story of the election. Yeah. It could be a difference maker. Okay. So can you give us any insight? I know that the campaigns always have their own internal polling. They don't share it with us. The president has been very

bullish in talking about what he's seeing. Of course, they're going to present the best face, whether it's the former vice president or the current president with their own internal polling. But there's been a lot of talk of where they've pulled ad dollars in a number of places. Does that communicate anything to you? Do you think they're, you know, the Biden team has more cash on hand, but the president has said, if we had a cash crunch, I would come out of pocket for this. Does it say much to you that the ad dollar pulls?

I mean, yeah, I think it does. Because at this point in the campaign, you know, it's down to crunch time and the campaigns, they have their two most valuable things, right? Are their time, number one, most importantly. So where are they going? What states are they traveling to? They're making decisions about not only, you know, which states, but which cities, which regions, which counties that they need to really, you know, touch base with, energize their rank and file.

And then their resources, right? Where are they spending those? And when they pull ads from states like, you

you know, Minnesota or Wisconsin. I think that does tell you that they are focused. You know, it's one of those things where I think both campaigns and again, Biden has so much money that he's able to really, you know, sort of spread the field and keep the pressure on in some of these states. I think the Trump campaign is being more strategic about what they're doing because they know that, you know, for example, based on the 2016 map, if

If he holds on to Florida, if he holds on to North Carolina, and if he holds on to Arizona and Ohio and Iowa, all of which are competitive, but all of which I think the Trump campaign feel pretty good about, then you're back to that upper Midwest trio. He only has to win one of those states. If he wins Pennsylvania, which I think most people, and I certainly look at Pennsylvania as the state

where I think Trump has perhaps the best shot, if he just wins Pennsylvania, it's over. If he just wins Michigan, it's over. If he wins Wisconsin, well, then it's like a 269-269 tie-ish. And then you're talking about, you know, Nebraska's second congressional district. Yeah, I mean, there are a couple different scenarios where we could end up, and because it's 2020, I don't rule those out. I mean, there's something about this year that just makes you think, you know, think of what the worst case scenario is, and that's going to be it.

You know, imagine a 269-269 tie where you've got recounts going on in, you know, three or four states and legal battles. And I mean, it's just it could get really, really ugly.

All right. Well, we've been talking with Tom Bevin, the co-founder and president of Real Clear Politics. It's a great website to check out what's going on and look at different averages. They do this day by day, probably hour by hour at some points. But it's a lot of interesting data that's crunched there if you want to keep up on what's going on in individual states, individual races, the Senate, other places, too. Tom, we always appreciate it. And thanks for joining us on Live in the Brain today. Absolutely, Shannon. Thank you.

This is Jimmy Fallon inviting you to join me for Fox Across America, where we'll discuss every single one of the Democrats' dumb ideas. Just kidding. It's only a three-hour show. Listen live at noon Eastern or get the podcast at foxacrossamerica.com.