When will M&A activity pick up? Will this year mark the return of IPOs? Listen to Strategic Alternatives, a podcast from RBC Capital Markets to get insights on these questions and more. Explore the trends in market forces impacting deal flow and find out how companies' investors are shifting their strategies to drive growth and unlock value. Listen and subscribe to Strategic Alternatives today, available wherever you get your podcasts.

Guy, I'm sure you're already up to speed on all things current. Of course I am. Their app makes managing your money, saving, even building credit super easy, Dan. They have a new feature called Paycheck Advance. You can get up to $500 before payday when you switch your paycheck and qualify. Now that I didn't know. So now when you sign up and you set up direct deposit, you unlock so much more.

And it's super easy to get started. Just go to Current.com slash OK. That's O-K-A-Y. That's Current.com slash OK. Current is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, member FDIC, and Cross River Bank, member FDIC. Paycheck Advance is offered by Finco Advance, LLC, a financial technology company, not a bank.

Eligibility and available amounts may vary and are subject to change at any time. For full terms and conditions, visit Current.com or call 888-851-1172 for more information. Welcome to the Risk Reversal Podcast. I'm Dan Nathan, joined by Guy Adami. Guy, good morning. Yo, what is going on in the spine now to his day? Yeah, we're just talking. Nothing like a four-day work week, huh?

Well, you know, in my humble opinion, I think you may share this, and I'm quite certain many of our viewers and listeners do as well. I'm of the belief that every week should be sort of a four-day work week. You want to jam an extra couple hours in per day, that's fine. Yeah.

Let's take Mondays off, man. Cause you know, Friday's sort of is what it is, as they say. I'm with you. Big week here, despite only four days, this would be on the risk reversal podcast. We had Mike Wilson on last week. Go listen to that. It was a one-on-one between Mike and myself. He is the,

head market strategist and CIO at Morgan Stanley. A lot of good stuff there. And this week, guy, just a little housekeeping. We have Gene Munster from Deepwater Asset Management. He and I are going to preview NVIDIA's earnings Wednesday after the close. That's going to drop tomorrow morning. Ann Bordetsky, she's a VC at NEA doing a lot of really interesting investing in the private markets in and around AI. I think they were one of the first investors in perplexity going back two years and

And Michael Cantopoulos, what's your nickname for Michael Cantopoulos? He's the high-yield hottie. The high-yield hottie from Richard Bernstein Advisor. That's going to drop on Friday morning. You and I got a lot to talk about here. We got a gap. This is right after the opening here. We have a supposedly, you know, a speed-up.

for an EU trade deal. Global bonds around guy. Yeah. Might have something to say about that. Obviously we just mentioned Nvidia. There's a bunch going on in the macro. So we're gonna hit some of that. But first things first guy last night, Ellie, she's my second born daughter. We're flipping around and we see a movie. One of my favorites. I'm going to put it in a top 10 for me. Almost famous came out in the year 2000 Cameron Crowe. It was a semi autobiographical, uh,

when he toured with one of your favorite bands, the Allman Brothers, I want to say in the early to mid 70s. Remember that movie? You like that movie? Top 10 movie for you? I don't think it's a top 10. That's not here. By the way, he married one of the Wilson sisters, I believe. I think he married Ann Wilson. I might be mistaken. Yeah, from the heart. And they got divorced actually too. But one of my favorite characters in that movie, and I think the kids today really appreciate it, whether they've seen the movie or not, is Penny Lane. You're a Penny Lane fan, aren't you?

Well, I'm a Diane Lane fan, but not necessarily a Penny Lane fan. But I am the actress who portrayed her a fan. Yes. Kate Hudson. All right. So here's a story that caught my eye. It's not that important at the end of the day, but the Treasury Department is going to discontinue the Penny guy. You knew where I was going with that.

Right. And this was really well done. This was really interesting to me. And this is a total, you know, 2021, 2022 Guy Adami segue into the podcast. Let's be very frank on this. But so the Treasury Department said that the penny is

manufacturing in 2024 increased by 20%. 20%, that's pretty interesting, right? And so they lose $85 million a year to produce close to 3.2 billion pennies per year. And this is one thing I thought was really interesting in the articles in Axios,

If we suddenly have to produce a lot more nickels and we lose more money producing nickels, then what does it make any sense discontinuing the penny? Like, give me some give me the 411 of that. That's pretty interesting way to think about it. Now, I mean, listen, I think one has to believe just the math suggests they're going to lose money printing just about anything other than the paper currency. But with that said.

given the complexity of the paper currency, maybe they lose money on that as well. But I think it was just sort of a matter of time before people tried to phase out the penny, but now we're going to move on to the nickel. So the question one has to ask themselves are, are we going to be left with any of the coins out there in circulation at some point? All right. So this is interesting just from like a demographic standpoint. Um, so if you are lower on the socioeconomic sort of, um, you know, here, um,

you are more likely to use cash. Okay. So last year, only 22% of folks over 55 use cash 12% below that. So it is the third most active form of payment. Obviously number one would be credit than debit. Then, uh, you have cash. So I just thought that was interesting. Caught my eye this morning. Guy would also catches my eye is we got another Monday. It was a Tuesday, but a weekend gap.

And so this is because of this context of the EU fast-tracking negotiations on trade. Trump, who threatened just last week 50% tariffs on the EU, pushes them out until July 9th. This all is starting to feel a bit manufactured, if you will. And I'm just saying, last week we saw Apple down 3% on Friday because he's threatening a 25% tariff. I'm sure by Sunday night we're going to have some sort of deal. It'll be announced on Monday. So get long Apple into the weekend. So thoughts here.

Yeah, listen, I think, you know, it's interesting you said manufactured, but if you have this type of information ahead of the time, this market is a very tradable market when you sort of can, I don't know, garner, gauge, game out, you know, what the administration is going to say from sort of day to day. But it begs the question, you know, again,

How difficult it is to sort of be in the seats that are trying to predict this when the unpredictable seemingly happens, not every day, but definitely into the weekends where you don't have a lot of recourse. So for us to sit here and talk about the fundamentals, which I do think are important, everything now seems to be overridden.

by the potential for a tweet to come out and change the direction, be it up or down, which makes the landscape, I think, very difficult to navigate. Yeah, and so last Friday, let's be clear, you know, the market was red. We saw a lot of the leadership down on the day. A lot of folks thought that sort of the few-week run that we had in the S&P 500 off of that sort of

May 9th announcement. Again, this was a Sunday night sort of thing, I think, in the Monday morning that the China, you know, we had some framework for discussing the potential for a deal with China. Right. And so we had that big gap, I think, in the S&P is from 5670. Just to be really clear, you know, a month earlier, I think it was on April 9th, the market boomed.

bottomed at 4850. So we had come a very long way 1000 S&P points, and really felt like on Friday guy without any announcements, we're going to see a follow through in a Tuesday of a gap fill. Okay, so here we are. And you know, we hear that the administration doesn't care about the stock market, they cared about the stock market below 5000. And I'm just wondering, would it be too like ticky tacky that they're looking at charts like this? I don't mean the White House, but like,

you know, like this plunge protection sort of group? Does that exist? And are they really trying to kind of hold things up right here? Well, I definitely think it exists. I think it was, I think if you Google it or perplexity it or whatever people do these days, you will find that actually does exist. I'm not certain that they're the ones behind the scenes doing things, although from time to time in the bond market, I think they're probably manifest themselves. But

Your point, I think, is well taken. I do think this administration cares more about the bond market, but the stock market is a close second. We'll call it 1 and 1A. And I think when they're able to say negative things on rallies, they're equally able to say positive things on dips. So I think what the game here is to sort of keep the stock, in my opinion, keep it in this range without having it cascade lower and be able to sort of navigate the tariff conversation and some of the tariff rhetoric

on the other side of it. I think that's a difficult game to play. I think they're walking a bit of a tightrope. I think at a certain point, the market's going to sort of call them out and say, okay, it's now time to put up or shut up in terms of tariffs and what you're going to do. But right now-

They're seemingly doing it well in terms of the market, decent job in navigating it. Yeah. And so today you better hold this gap because, again, we talked about that gap down to 5670. So that's something worth keeping an eye on. So, Guy, this sort of excitement in the equity market has caused the 10-year yield to come in below 4%.

We were thinking that 460, which I think it kissed or maybe got a little bit above that at one point last week. I mean, how important is this level? It seems like we're kind of, you know, 440 at 460. That's kind of the market here in the 10-year yield. Thoughts? I continue to look. I'll be very clear. I still think the bond market is going to sell off. I think yields are going higher.

And TLT, which I think as we're sitting here now, it's about 85 and a half or so. I do think it's going to visit the levels we saw in the fall of 2023, which was, I think, about 82 and a half. And that's going to sort of coincide with 10-year yields somewhere between 480 and 485. And I think we're going higher. I'm not alone in that, by the way. There are a lot of people that are seemingly coming around to that. But

In the interim, you're going to see bond market rallies that seemingly come out of nowhere. And on the back of this time, this news that potential – well, not potentially, this news that there's going to be a moratorium, I guess, or however many month delay in terms of the EU tariffs. I think they go out to, what, July 9th now. Yeah.

Here you are. But I think bond rallies are going to be sold. I think rallies in the TLT will be sold. I think inevitably we're going down and we're going to test that level and we'll see what happens if and when we get there. And more importantly, what the market decides to do if and when we get

there. Yeah. And you got to keep an eye on the U.S. dollar here because it's up just a smidge today. It kind of rallied up to 102. This is the U.S. dollar index, the Dixie. And, you know, the fact is it was really threatening kind of that 98 sort of low that we got to in April. And that was the sell USA. Right. You're selling stocks. You're selling treasuries. You're selling the dollar. You're buying gold. So this is one I think it's important to keep an eye on because you're

you know, the dollar was going in a different direction than the 10 year yield. And that's not something you usually see particularly often. The other thing guy is the VIX. Okay. On a Friday in front of a three day weekend, you're usually going to see possibly some weakness there as it's

pricing in, right? How many days, you know, that you have being closed. So you have a VIX that's still above 20 right now. So it'll be interesting to see how that goes. Sometimes you'll see on a Monday or a Tuesday morning after a three-day weekend, a little strength, right? Getting some of that back, if you will. So the VIX is something you want to keep an eye on.

Gold guy, your gold is trading at basically 3,300, not far off of those all-time highs. How important does gold remain to you? Because I think you made this point on many occasions. You're more interested in looking at gold as a measure of volatility on the S&P 500 maybe than the VIX. Well, the move today makes sense in the context of what we've spoken about for the last few minutes down, you know, $55, $60 or so. I continue to think it's a story, but, you know, that story is going to sort of find

cracks in the armor at certain points when you get this theoretically positive news. But again, I want to emphasize, I don't think anything's necessarily changed in the bond market. I don't think necessarily anything's changed in terms of what Japan is going through. And I certainly don't think anything's changed on the gold front. Central banks continue to buy. The news out of China continues to be that they're buying gold. So yeah, the sell-offs are painful to sort of sit and stomach.

on days like today. But with all that said, you look at gold and these sell-offs are just sort of a blip if you really think about it. Now, I do grow a little bit concerned that we continue to push up to those highs that we saw, I want to say on April 21st and seemingly sort of sell off from it. I think the first one was the 21st. The next one we got up to around May 6th. And now the last one was probably last week at some point, maybe the 22nd. But

I think it's just a matter of time before we take that sort of 3,400 level out on the upside. And I think what you're like highlighting here, if you're just looking at a chart, we have a series of lower highs, right? Over the last month or so, I think 3,485 was the high. We're down 65 points or 64 points today. It's at 3,300. Like I just said, you do have an uptrend off of the

fall sort of lows that brings you i want to say i don't know 31 50 or something like that guy the 200 day moving average is all the way down there at 28 20 so you know listen it's been a great outperformer let's just see if it goes back and it doesn't make a new low over that one month period because i think um that'll be something that a lot of technicians are keeping an eye on um nvidia uh

Wednesday after the close. That's tomorrow. That's tomorrow. Yeah. Yeah. So we've already heard the CapEx guidance. I think we've seen a deceleration of the growth, but the absolute numbers from Meta and, you know, Microsoft and Google and Amazon and OpenAI, they're still massive. They're the tunes of hundreds of billions of dollars, maybe three to four hundred billion dollars over the next

sort of calendar year, if you will. How important, we've been making this case for a very long time that this is like the main event. It usually comes a month after, you know, most of the big tech earnings are done. Is this one that important right now? Because at the end of the day, Jensen Wang, the CEO of this company over the last few weeks, I mean, if he didn't spend money

15 hours guy cumulatively talking at industry conferences and it's all over the world too. I don't know whatever the hell else he's going to have to say. You know, they really do have to talk about this transition to these kind of new iterations, whether it's Blackwell, whether it's Rubin, that sort of thing. Adoption of their software program or, you know, they're investing in a lot of companies in their ecosystem that are going to be

using their GPUs and the like here. They're investing in data centers so companies can access this sort of stuff. So it just seems like it's all out there, but I'm just curious thoughts. I think at 8% implied move in either direction, the high, the closing high, I think was somewhere...

just under 150 or so. And that came, you know, a couple months ago, maybe in January, here we are at 134 or so. We've come a long way. We were just kind of touched below 90 in early April. Is this the main event we've been saying for the last two years or so? I think so. So January 6th, I think it made the all-time high of 153 and change and then proceeded to pretty much sell off, not in a straight line, but, you know, fits and starts to your point down to $90, I think on what, April 3rd or 4th or whatever,

early April date was. Now, we've rallied 50, 50%-ish since then, which is a pretty significant rally. So you just said he's been out there talking a number of times. So if you've been looking for positive things, there's no dearth of things to find in terms of him speaking over the last couple of weeks. So that is all out there. My question is, and I think

What the market should be focused on are the guidance in terms of margins for the back half of this year. They promised that margins would reaccelerate last quarter. The market seemingly took them at its word until sort of everything sort of cascaded lower. Now, I think it's sort of the time where, you know, here we are approaching June. People are going to really start to look at the back half of the year and say, OK, we want to see a reacceleration of margins. Otherwise, you know, regardless of earnings growth,

or revenue growth, I think it's going to be somewhat constrained to the upside in terms of how much more is left. So I think you're taking profits into this print tomorrow. I'm sure that a lot of people think we're going to take out the prior all-time high.

As they say, that's what makes markets. But there are a lot of headwinds out there that I don't think the market is taking into consideration. Yeah. And on the flip side of that, there seems to be some blood coming back into the whatever you like to use that term, animal spirits, if you will, as it relates to the equity market. I hope you're if you're watching this, you can see the look on Guy's face, a little disdain and a little smirk now. But if you're listening to it, he didn't really enjoy being associated with that term. So I just wanted to throw that out there.

In today's hyper-fast markets, it's never been more important to consider every option to raise capital, drive growth, and create value. Stay one step ahead with Strategic Alternatives, a podcast from RBC Capital Markets. This season, RBC's experts examine how corporates and investors are adapting their strategies, reassessing their portfolios, and reallocating capital to navigate uncertainty and volatility in the current macro environment. Tune in to Strategic Alternatives, the RBC Capital Markets podcast today.

Hi, everyone. It's Guy. You've probably heard me mention Current before on the pod, but we can't stop talking about how easy managing all your money is with their app. It helps you grow your savings, you can build your credit, and it works for the entire family. Plus, with their new Paycheck Advance feature, you can get up to $500 before payday when you switch your payroll and qualify. No credit checks or mandatory fees required.

It's super easy to sign up. Just go to Current.com slash OK. OKAY. That's Current.com OK to get the app.

For more information.

We walk in this morning, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that Salesforce.com is about to finalize an $8 billion deal for a company called Informatica. And you know, Guy, this is a company that has a $260 billion market cap. It's still down 26% from its all-time highs made just in December. So it's not acting that well relative to a lot of its mega cap tech peers. They're going to report tomorrow, and I suspect that's a bit early based on...

you know, the announcement of this deal. You know, this is a company that reminds me a lot of like Cisco back in the day. It's just a huge roll up or Oracle back in the day, a huge roll up. There's really not a whole heck of a lot of organic growth. I think there's a lot of folks who think that, you know, generative AI is going to be a massive headwind for them. This is why the company continues to beef up on the acquisition front. And then we have, you know, all these S1s are getting dust off.

Chime is supposed to come public soon or whatever. So there's a lot of interest in either strategic M&A or bringing IPOs to market, which is a fairly healthy thing, you know what I mean, if you think about it that way. But if you can't bring a deal in this sort of environment where you supposedly have a very favorable regulatory, you have a stock market that's come back within the all-time

you know, a few percent of the all-time highs. You have an administration that's very focused on keeping things afloat, not just the economy at this point. And I think that flies in the face of what the narrative was a couple months ago. They didn't care about putting in a recession. They didn't care about the stock market crash. They wanted to get the 10-year lows or 10-year down. I never believed any of that. So thoughts here on what's coming back into the market.

Well, just in terms of sales force, this is sort of a tough one to gauge. As you said, it hasn't traded particularly well. I think the all-time high was in December, if I'm not mistaken, around $369. And then we pretty much traded down in a straight line, traded down to almost the lows that we saw June of last year. So there's that sort of support. But now I think we find ourselves in sort of no man's land here at $275.

bouncing from this recent low. I think, listen, in my opinion, I think valuation has always been a concern. I don't think that's changed. And you just said it. I mean, are they having to buy growth now? And I think that's what the market's going to be sort of locked into. And you mentioned Oracle. Now, Oracle went through some years of difficulties, if you remember, until it finally found its way

And maybe sort of Salesforce is on the precipice of that. But with that said, there's some excitement around, obviously, potential deal flow. And you said sort of the dusting off of potential IPOs. I mean, that is on the margins, I think, sort of market-friendly.

So I think there's a lot to be taken into consideration right now. But I mean, Salesforce to me, you know, we've established that a pair of twos is not as shitty hand as everybody thinks, but I don't think it's as great a hand as the Bulls want to think either. I like that take there.

Apple, worst performing. We just mentioned it for a second there. Worst performing MAG7 stock on the year. It's down 20%. It's down about 24% from those all-time highs made in January of this year, maybe late December here. And so when I think about the announcements in and around that, okay, so Tim Cook had cozied up to the new administration who was standing there on the dais on January 20th behind the president. They had given to their...

inauguration and the like. And, you know, we know what the focus is here, right? He already, um, announced, uh, $500 billion. I think this was in January, early February about, um, that they were going to spend here in the U S, um, you know, between then and the end of the,

presidency of Trump. It's going out four years. And then, you know, the back and forth here on the tariffs front has been really interesting. Supposedly they were going to get a carve out. And then Trump last week threatened that if they don't make the iPhones, you know, that they're making in India right now in the U.S., they're going to be a 25 percent tariff or so. That sent the stock down 4 percent. It closed down 3 percent. It's up 1.3 percent today. So not a whole heck of a lot of of

gusto, if you will, on the rebound here. You know, this is one guy that I just feel like you and I've been saying this for a long time. This is going to be the last battle fought in some sort of trying to trade war. And we've been saying that for years. I mean, this started back in 17 or 18. And I just don't know how they find an elegant solution out of this because they're not going to be able to manufacture these phones here anytime soon.

You know, a couple of podcasts, maybe a week and a half ago, two weeks ago, before we heard all this news, we talked about sort of Apple being in the crosshairs of a lot of different things.

not least of which, you know, this administration. And that obviously came to fruition last week with some of those, well, with some of those headlines and some of those tweets. Listen, I think this administration understands that iPhones are probably never going to be solely manufactured here in the United States. So I don't know what the end game necessarily is

what they're looking for. But with all that said, you just said it. I mean, this was a stock that made a $260 high, still trading below 200. Bounces have been sold. Valuation is still concerning. Again, they are seemingly, I have a bullseye on their back on a number of different levels, a number of different, what's the word I'm looking for, angles. And I think it's challenged. And, you know, but for

put that on a t-shirt the etf flows the amount of money that flows into apple seemingly each day on the 420 or so etfs that they're in you know i think the stock is significantly lower than it currently is trading yeah you know what a butt is for guy

sitting. So but four is for sitting. You know, the second worst performing mag seven stock on the year is Tesla. And it's had this really big run of late. I think it traded down to maybe like 220 or so in April that was down from 490 or something like that in late December. And you know, we'll hit this one in the market call this week because it's a really interesting chart formation here. There was a flag that was made off of the

April lows, you had straight up, you had a consolidation, then you had another breakout move, and now you're seeing a bit of a consolidation. But what I'm focused on this morning is Bloomberg has an article out talking about BYD. So BYD is a Chinese company.

you know, EV manufacturer. They make 100% EVs or hybrids, okay? So Tesla does not have a hybrid. They've gone all in on full EVs. Last year at one point, I think late in the year, BYD overtook Tesla in China for deliveries and manufacturing like globally, that sort of thing. They've been an absolute rocket ship as it relates to competition for Tesla, not just in China, but also abroad. We don't have

BYDs here in America. We probably won't for a very long time if we ever do. But they're talking about price cuts there, Guy. And so they just announced cuts of up to 34% on 22 of their cars. This comes on a week that we know that European sales for Tesla are down nearly 50%. You ready for this? In April, across Europe,

Okay, Tesla sold 7,500 cars. Think about that, 7,500 cars. So that's down 50% year over year. So this was never a huge market, but I think directionally it's important because we know that a lot of the Germans and there's a lot of EVs that are coming out here. But we're in a massive price war and Tesla has felt the brunt of it over the last three years or so. And it sounds like BYD is really starting to turn that up.

And BYD is one of the sort of companies that can probably, you know, kind of deal with this longer than sort of a Tesla will. And last thing I want to quote this Troy test like this is a guy, a blogger who's actually, you know, every week puts out data about deliveries and manufacturing for Tesla and the like. And he's about as I think he's more accurate than most of the analysts on Wall Street.

And he's talking about the streets still way too high. I think they're at, you know, 175 that's million down from 1.8 last year, which was down from, you know, even further the year before his numbers are like 155 or something like that. He's also tracking

This is a new KPI here, a new metric, profitable unit sales for deliveries because they are buying down rates. They are cutting costs. They're doing a whole sort of things. The fact that you have, and you brought this up on many occasions, their auto gross margins are lower than that of GM and Ford. Well,

Well, there's a lot to be concerned about without question. Obviously, the Tesla Illuminati and those that are believers in the story say that this is all just noise. And the real story comes in the form of robo taxis and robots and, you know, all self-driving vehicles and all these different things that still are yet to be seen for the most part.

With all that said, just looking from a technical level, the recent all-time high, I think, was $4.88 or so. And that was in the wake of the election into the end of last year. We traded down to about $2.15, $2.20. What we're seeing right now here at $3.52 is a textbook 50% retracement of that entire move. So it stands to reason, in my opinion, that we've

pause here. And no, I'll tell you, when it was down there around 220, 225, I think we collectively said that if you're looking for more room to the downside, you're probably pushing against something that's probably not there in the short term. We had traded down the levels we saw in October of last year, and we found support. Now, maybe the rallies happened a little faster than I thought, but it did make this 50% retracement. And if you go back and look, if you really want to play a little stock market,

This was the second leg down from this level back in February of this year when we sort of sold off bounce and then sold off again into the March, April lows. So I think this is a huge level of resistance. And all the fundamental things you just put out seemingly should provide that resistance a little bit more. Yeah, going back to that sort of May 9th China push out of the tariffs or at least the reciprocal tariffs that were brought down here. I think there's an interesting headline this morning. Bloomberg's got it.

President Xi's new made in China plan despite U.S. call to rebalance. They've earmarked tens of billions of dollars to kind of push retail consumption in their country, despite the fact they're leaning in once again to manufacturing. So when I see headlines like this, it just leads me to believe that the Chinese are going to stall. They're going to continue to kind of push out this sort of tit for tat sort of situation.

with the US in trade. That's exactly what they did back in 17, 18. They talked about some sort of framework for a deal, I think in 2018, shortly after we, or that actually wasn't a framework. After we put in tariffs in 2018, they did not have a phase one deal

for a trade sort of detente until January of 2020. The other headline guy that kind of caught my attention this morning was that the prime minister in Germany, MERS, gives Ukraine the green light to strike deep inside Russia. Why is that important? Because the EU and the US are supplying, obviously, a lot of that sort of energy

you know, the missiles and the like here. And that just seems like has the potential to really dial things up. Are you still focused on some of this sort of situations with Ukraine and obviously China, Taiwan? I mean, the longer this situation goes, if it really continues to weigh on the Chinese economy, these are kind of hotspots, I think, that are not appreciated right now.

You know, I've been focused on it as obviously as a human being, I think as we all are, but through the market, I've been focused on it. And much of that focus has been somewhat misguided and hasn't come to fruition. But I'll tell you somebody who also seemingly is focused on it. And it came in some of the commentary we heard last week. That's Jamie Dimon, who specifically talked about all this geopolitical risk and unrest and the market was being complacent sort of in the face of it. So

Yes, I'm focused on it. Again, people a lot smarter than I am are focused on it as well. The market clearly doesn't seemingly focus on it. And again, if it did, for a myriad of different reasons, I think you'd see a VIX that is higher and I think you'd see a stock market that's lower. But right now, the discount of all this stuff is seemingly discounting it in a positive lens, at least as we sit here today. Yeah. Last thing, economic data.

This morning, Peter Brookvar of The Book Report, he highlighted that a lot of the SAF data in the economy is turning into hard data, or at least we're getting some reads on that. He was pointing towards durable goods orders, which weren't particularly great. We have the Fed minutes tomorrow. I don't know what we're expected to get out of that. On Thursday, we have GDP annualized quarter over quarter. And then on Friday, guy, or it's on Thursday, we have the Fed's minutes.

most favored inflation reading. That's the PCE. The PCE. How does the market act if we continue to see, let's just say, a kind of, you know, I don't know, maybe it comes out the headline is weaker than some folks expected or it's not dialed up a little bit. We've seen softer inflation data the last month and a half or two months. We've also seen a bond market that seemingly doesn't react in the favorable way that I think a lot of people would have thought or hoped for. So

you know, you're probably going to see continued, I would say softness, although stickiness is still there, but I also think you're going to see a bond market. That's not necessarily going to react in kind. So if you were to get a hot number, I think that's when you see a bond market reaction the wrong way, by the way. Yeah.

No doubt. All right. Let's see if this S&P can hold these sorts of levels. It is so far right now. I guess not only hold, but also build on it. It seems like there's a lot of good news in the market right here. We're about to test some really important technical levels. Let's keep an eye on the VIX. Let's keep an eye.

in the dollar let's keep an eye on uh we didn't mention bitcoin all-time highs but i think that's doing something for a whole host of other reasons so we got a big week on the risk reversal podcast tune in for the next few days at 11 a.m because we are doing the market call we drill down um on a lot of the the kind of names in the charts that we were kind of referring to so a lot going on there thanks for being with us everybody guy adami i'll check you on the market call