The Battle for Global Influence with Wilfred Frost
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Welcome to the Risk Reversal Podcast. I'm Dan Nathan. Very special show for you here today. Wilfred Frost, my good friend, former host of CNBC's Closing Bell, current host of The Breakfast Show on Sky News and of

of the brand new The Master Investor podcast joins me today. We talk about a whole host of things about tax, about trade, about how the US is being perceived from the UK, but also around the world. So great conversation there. So stick around for that. Also, I just got to hit the markets here really quickly. The S&P closed dead flat on the day.

But there was a huge rotation out of mega cap tech stocks, software semis in particular, two groups that were leading a lot of the gains that we had off the April lows.

but some of the sector is doing really well and i'm just going to highlight this like homebuilders up four and a half percent today retail stocks up four percent stocks like target up five percent um a whole host of other retailers just really outperforming best buy up five percent so a lot of head scratching action there june

car sales gm ford better than expected ev is pretty good for gm that stock was up nearly six percent tesla on the flip side of that is going to be reporting q2 uh deliveries tomorrow morning by the time you're listening to this the stock is down five and a half percent trading very near 300 bucks this is a stock that was trading 360 dollars just about a week and a half ago

So that's an interesting one. Elon Musk wading back into the political fray, not particularly happy about this tax bill that just passed the Senate and Trump kind of clapping back at him. So that's something that I think we're gonna have to keep an eye on. But it's just interesting price action.

It's the first day of the third quarter. You know, we ended Q2 in a place where I think in April, no one thought we were going to be with the S&P up 5% of the year, the NASDAQ up 5% of the year. If you look at the 10-year yield, it's trading at 425. That's basically exactly where we were before Trump slapped all those

tariffs on basically everybody in and around the world. We have a VIX that's basically still below 17, 1675. We have crude oil that is just got no bid to it. Really interestingly, the dollar below 97, that's the U S dollar index. So lots of stuff going on here that is curious for all intents and purposes. Maybe the run that we had to new all time highs in the S and P was a little bit of window dressing in the last week, uh,

of the quarter. And maybe you just see some profit taking on some of the names that powered those gains. And I do think it's interesting for the, you know, the, the cadre out there who think the market is broadening out. Well, you got that today. You got the Russell 2000, you know, outperforming the S and P 500, the regional banking index, massively outperforming the XLF, which was up a half a percent versus the KRE of 4%. So, you

You know what? It'll be interesting to see. This is a good setup as we get into Q2 earnings season, which gets kicked off in about a week and a half or so with the banks. But I just wanted to kind of highlight some of the price action in the stock market today because to me, it looked a little funky. Maybe it's just kind of pulling back a little bit of Q2 or late Q2 window dressing. But I

I just really want to keep an eye on some of these rate-sensitive groups that were doing pretty well today and some other groups that were doing well that would almost give me the, I don't know, the all clear on the reflation trade. So a lot of stuff, a lot of good stuff there. All right, stick around for my conversation with Wilfred Frost.

Welcome back to the Risk Reversal Podcast. I am joined by a dear friend that would be Wilfred Frost. Wilfred, welcome back to the pod. Dan, so good to be back. So I think it was last June of 2022. Since then, there's been a lot going on. You moved back to London. I just want to be really clear here. You are an anchor on the

breakfast show on Sky News. You're still a contributor to CNBC, MSNBC, and NBC News. You are the CEO. Until they all split up. Well, that's a good point, actually. How's that going to work out? I don't know. We'll find out. Versant. Versant. You are the CEO of Paradigm Productions, which actually is a production house. And I want to talk about a bunch of the content that you've been creating for years. I'm a huge fan of it. But one of them is the Frost Tapes. It was a podcast. I think it was launched five years ago.

Is that something? 2020, yeah. Yeah. And then David Frost Versus, which just aired on MSNBC. It's going to be streaming again soon. You're going to give us a 411 on that. It's also on Sky. And then you are the host of a brand new podcast, Master Investor. The Master Investor podcast with me, Wilfred Frost, which just came out with one episode in. I recorded with Jack Liu a few hours ago, and that's going to drop probably at the same time as this tomorrow. Yeah.

The big kind of sell on that is back home when I moved back from here where I was on CNBC, I pivoted to mainstream news. So the day job, Sky News Breakfast is mainstream news and this is now to kind of placate my love of business and investing and

the kind of tagline is we want to learn from and celebrate the success of the greatest business leaders and investors in the world so Jack glue uh former treasurer's secretary so that's a that's a great get as we say in the business um Dan Niles was the first one of Niles investment who's been on our pod he's on CNBC a lot I know he was a frequent guest on your old show um that was a great conversation actually we're going to put that in the show notes um so click through that

Follow Will's Pod on your favorite podcast store. You're going to be on YouTube too? We are. Go to YouTube channel and wherever you get your pods. You know, one of the things when I read all the things you're doing, I thought I was busy. You're very busy. And we're going to get to a bunch of that. The other stuff I really want to hit because you just said you've made this transition to general news. But...

You know, you've really kept, I guess, a foot in the water if you think about it on Business News. And so again, like you said, that is one of the goals of the Master Investor Podcast. But I couldn't think of a better person to speak to a little bit. We are in our own silo here in the US when we're thinking about tax and trade and geopolitics and stuff like that. But I always found it interesting because I used to live in the UK 25 years ago and there was a lot going on then when I was there. I was there for 9/11. I was there for the dot com implosion and a handful of other things.

And one of the things I realized right away is like you're not in Kansas anymore. You know what I mean? It's a very different thing. Talk to me a little bit about that. You started over there in broadcasting. You came over here and now you're back. What are some of like the differences that you've seen? Well, you know, the biggest single difference and I'd always kind of heard this talked about by my dad who spent a lot of time between both countries. And I don't think I fully appreciated it until I moved here.

And then even more so until I moved back again to the UK. And that is the different mindsets between the two countries towards success. And actually the podcast is launching. It's a big part of that. Here, America celebrates success at every single turn. It's a very pro-ambition, pro-business country.

In the UK, I think we're far more capitalist, let's say, far more free market than a lot of continental Europe. But our one little negative in that area can be when you see someone successful, you want to take a chunk out of them. You get jealous of that success rather than thinking...

Good for you. I want to emulate you. I want to learn from you and see if I can follow in your footsteps. And that's genuinely one of the key parts about the podcast that I want to kind of bring back from my time in America and deliver to the UK. And

I personally think it's in our DNA. Look at our history. For better or worse, we've achieved a lot as a small nation. And growing up, I don't remember it being quite as extensive as it is to sort of frown upon...

And I think it's bubbling under the surface there. I'm a long-term bull on the UK because of those factors. And we just got to kind of unleash it a little bit. Yeah, so I was in the UK with you. We spent a weekend together with a whole host of other folks. And one of our friends set up a meeting at 10 Downing Street with, who was it, like a special envoy to the PM on business and investment or something like that?

And obviously that whole conversation was off the record, but our group were a bunch of entrepreneurs, a bunch of investors and the like. - You brought kind of quite a few billionaires, so that's why they set up the meeting. - But it was really interesting because I think you really had a beat

on what this gentleman was saying and because of your experience, obviously growing up there and starting in banking and then doing broadcasting and then come over here and the network that you made over here, they really want to attract investment in business there. And like, is that something that has always been part of the fabric there or no? - Definitely. Oh, I think, and you know, what's interesting is rewind

pre-Brexit, we had this interesting position where we were kind of America's main gateway into influencing the EU because we're inside it. Now, the last decade has been pretty, you know, tepid on the GDP performance level for the UK and kind of torrid in terms of political division as we've kind of got to where we are. But Brexit is now settled one way or another. And we're now kind of working out what our new role is in that

regards and two things I'd say you know about you know the government's going through at the moment you know there's some things business would criticize they had to put up a tax here or there but you know they didn't inherit the best economic position one thing they have managed to deliver is three trade deals in a short space of time one with India which is a fairly extensive trade deal one with the US which is kind of

an agreement. Let's say it, kind of shit. Yeah, it's an agreement to kind of keep talking, but like, we'll avoid the biggest tariffs that at least President Trump is imposing on people. And the other is a sort of reset of terms with the EU, which again is not that deep, but it's nonetheless a positive step. And,

No other country in the world, I don't think, at the moment could thread that needle to do three at the moment. We can argue all day long whether the government's announced things that can't be U-turned on in due course by those partners or are, in fact, that deep. But it's an interesting little snapshot of what the UK might be able to achieve in the next decade if we can get some of those things right. The only other thing I'd just quickly say, because it kind of snaps back to –

The starting point. I feel one of the reasons why people are nervous about saying business, you know, I'm pro-business or I'm pro-success is historically it could be seen to say you're taking a side politically.

But this Labour government, again, you can decide their policies have been successful so far or not. That's up to other people. They said in opposition, on the campaign trail and in government, we are pro-business. We want to be pro-growth and pro-business. And what I welcome about that is it's very clearly now a cross-party goal to be pro-business and drive the economy. And again, I think it's been one of these things that's made it sort of, for weird kind of reasons, taboo in the last decade or so.

that people haven't wanted to say it because it might express their political opinion. I think it's

the more we see that that's not a political opinion, it's just necessary, the better. - Well, I think it's also a practical opinion because Brexit you just mentioned, I mean, that kind of showed some of the great divides that also exist here and why one of the main reasons why Trump was elected in 2016, which happened to be the same period that Brexit happened. And I think the bigger issue, because think about all of these Democrats here in the US that kind of flipped over and they flipped over to the Republican side in this last election,

for a whole host of reasons, but they seem kind of social issues. They didn't really seem economic issues. I think both parties have an issue with this massive debt pile that we're accumulating, but the difference between Republicans here is that they wanna cut the social safety net to fund tax cuts where the Democrats

don't want to do that, right? They want to almost raise taxes. And so, I mean, and they want to keep the social safety net. And so when I think about it, they're really not economic issues. They're kind of social issues. And, you know, the income inequality is the biggest thing because that's been exploding both over there and over here.

- Oh, massively. I think there's a couple of things to say. One, by the way, is that Brits don't wear politics on their sleeve as much as Americans do. Brexit was the one time which lasted for a good five, six years afterwards.

where that changed. And people would talk at dinner parties and argue with their friends, I'm remain, I'm leave, in a way that here people say, I'm a Republican, I'm a Democrat. Thankfully, in my country, that's gone away again. And I welcome that. I think it's good that we keep politics to ourselves. People can be disappointed or pleased with what's going on, but it doesn't really bubble into friendships and disagreements. Whereas obviously, that's kind of just par for the course here in America and has been for many decades. I think the other big difference on...

the kind of last couple of years is here with this latest bill going through, obviously, whether it passes this week or not, we'll see, put to bed the idea that one side of the political aisle wants to rein in the deficit. You know, both sides

the last two governments now are clearly saying we're okay with 6-7% deficits in the short term. That's not the case in the UK. We realized we can't do that, that we can't afford that with the Liz Trust moment, as you mentioned. Now maybe that only happened because the markets forced politicians in the UK to get to that moment. But it has completely changed the dynamic since then, since 2022 to today, in terms of what ability the government has to promise the world

to voters or not. And it does mean that the entire political debate is very different. It's much more minutiae of the detail. What are we going to spend this extra billion on or not? What are we going to

raise this extra billion to spend on or not. And I welcome that because it's a more clear focus on the detail and what actually matters rather than just like, as you say, just promise the world and let's see where we end up. - Yeah, well part of it is that every two years the Congress people have to get reelected, right? And so it's kind of this nonstop sort of thing. Every four years we have this really tough

Senate race, right? Every four years, you know, folks start running for president right after the midterm elections. So it just seems like we're very short-term oriented. And for people to get elected, they kind of have to keep promising things to their constituents, right? And so that's what we're seeing a little bit with this tax bill. So you mentioned that it just passed the Senate today. It's

and the House, there's this group of deficit hawks, and they're not gonna like a bunch of the stuff that the Senate just put on there. Trump did his thing where he just made some phony deadline, you know what I mean? Now everyone's racing, working 24/7, which they had been in the Senate to get this thing done by July 4th. But let's talk a little bit about tax because you just mentioned this, we just talked about it for a second,

So with Liz Truce, she tried to cut taxes. She tried to circumvent the normal processes, right? To get the proper parliamentary approvals and that sort of thing. Caused a big brouhaha. Just explain that a little bit. Explain why that's not likely to happen here.

Well, I don't know that that is necessarily the right conclusion. So when Liz Truss took over as prime minister when obviously Boris Johnson got ousted, she came in in a rush to try and deliver her economic policy, the centrepiece of which was let's cut taxes and be more pro-growth. But what she did was bring a sledgehammer to that at a moment in time where

when it hadn't really been properly laid out with time to the markets. As you said, she cut out the OBR, the Office for Budget Responsibility, it's kind of like the OMB. So we didn't get any official forecasts of what was happening.

And at the same time, because the war had pushed up energy prices enormously, they also announced a big pledge to help people with their energy bills. Now, ironically, you know, the centerpiece of this was doing everything at once. There was an income tax cut. There was a national insurance cut. I think there was also a capital gains tax cut. I forget exactly. And the spending pledge at the same time. Ironically, of all of those items, the one that contributed

that cost the most was the help for people's energy bills, the spending cut, which wasn't actually part of her economic DNA. That was circumstance that she felt necessary to that rather than principle.

And it all got caught up at once and the markets fell out of bed. They're like, this country cannot afford this increase in borrowing at this point in time. And clearly then the markets forced her out of office in a very quick space of time rather than giving her a chance to regroup. The extra point I'd say on that is

Not only did it change the sentiment in the UK versus here of people have to balance the budget if you want to increase spending, you have to increase taxes or vice versa, but it kind of has put to bed the idea that lower taxes could be beneficial in the short term, which, you know, again, for other people to debate is probably not the case.

probably a shame to at least remove the counter-argument to that in terms of the national debate. Will it happen here? I don't know. I mean, clearly, the U.S. has the reserve currency of the world. You have the most impressive long-term growth engine and ability to out-innovate over time. You know, I think the U.S. certainly deserves more leeway

- 37 trillion of leeway with another 3.3 coming on. - And obviously has more ability to kick the can down the road than other nations, but until you suddenly don't. And look, we're not talking about a three or 4% deficit here.

you know, after all Western world's deficits shot up to about high single digits, 8%, 9% during COVID, we got ours down, partly forced by the markets, quite quickly to the sort of four threes. And we're now down to like the 2% level. You know, yours went up to 8%, 9%. And it's basically stayed at 6%, 7%, 8% since then. That's mad. That's not sustainable long term. And what we've seen in the last six months is that

the conservative small C party in this country is willing to let that continue for an extra couple of years. Let's see if there's a comeuppance. The other point I just say, sorry, just really quickly, your central bank's a hell of a lot more powerful and your treasury's a hell of a lot more powerful than ours as well. And I don't know, I think we saw with Liberation Day that if you say...

the powers overall both fiscal and monetary don't have a very high pain threshold for bond market disruption so I don't know if you do get that moment probably they step in again one way or another but I don't think you'd have a lot of downside whilst you're getting that moment

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You just mentioned that, you know, trust the market kind of forced the change of policy, forced basically her out for all intents and purposes. And you go back and you think about the situation with Liberation Day. I hate using that term. It's so fucking stupid. But the bill is beautiful. I mean, I can't even say that. I mean, I don't know how these people say this stuff with a straight face, to be very honest with you. But, you know, to your point about yields.

The 10-year is right where it was in March, you know what I mean? Like right before all this stuff. The stock market is basically, I don't know, it's almost back towards in and around the left. I know it's back at all-time highs here in the U.S., but, you know, that did force the hand of policy, you know what I mean, that sort of thing. So that happened. We had that moment. Well, I think one short-term downside is you have

approach July the 9th is that stocks are back at all-time highs. That's going to change the president's pain threshold. Maybe we should try this once again, that sort of thing. The other thing which I always find funny watching it is, you know, I was discussing this with Sarah and David today on Squawk on the Street on CNBC, but...

I would think one of the core things that will make it less likely for Jay Powell to cut rates is the president goading him to do so. Because if he wants to save face, Jerome Powell, and make it look like he's not been pressured politically, he needs a month or two of quiet on that front. So it's funny how these things kind of evolve and change. You know, one thing I'd say on the tactics, and

And we've got to observe this and applaud it. And it works a little bit on trade, but the best way to highlight it is on NATO. That NATO summit for President Trump last week was successful. The European nations, and again, we have a debate back home, has the government really laid out how they're going to reach this 5% on national security, which, by the way, is actually only 3.5% on core defense, but still a lot more than we were on.

I don't think it's really clearly been outlined yet. Part of it, the target is 2035, so that's into the next government's hands. But nonetheless, to get all of NATO, bar Spain, to clearly pledge that is a huge achievement. Now, has he pissed off a lot of allies in the process? Yes. Could he have gone about it in a more middle ground way? Maybe he couldn't have gone a totally considerate way because other presidents have tried that.

that you know yeah I'm sure he could have done and it's some of the rhetoric towards allies a bit upsetting but he has achieved that and that is impressive on the trade point it's almost the other way around you know we've got a trade deal the UK and yet we're in a worse position than we were six months ago because the baseline 10% is there we just didn't get the rest but you can probably look at that

and say, if that's your goal, you know, we could argue all day long economically if that's right for America to have this sort of extra tariff. If that's your goal to get there and have us sort of celebrate it on the other side, which we sort of had to because it's relatively better than China or better than the EU.

It's not to be kind of sniffed at. It's kind of impressive. For you guys, it is. We have a $12 billion surplus with you guys. It's one of the very few countries that we have a surplus. And so in many ways, it's actually not particularly... I mean, like the fact that you guys are celebrating is very surprising to me. And that surplus was up last year 17% from 2023. I mean, you guys are a great trading partner for us. I know. I know. But that's my point is it's kind of... It's all relative, right? I mean...

By the way, just to step back entirely, the issue that nobody gets in Europe is Russia and Ukraine. And interesting that, you know, America would step up to the plate in such a clear way on Iran still remains to be seen on Russia, Ukraine. Although I'd say from NATO, by the way, his rhetoric there was interesting, but it changes sort of often. And I think the area that Brits were really upset about was around the Munich Security Conference and comments particularly from the vice president about

the extent to which European nations step up and the UK in particular I think takes offense from that because forget World War II I mean we just go back to Afghanistan and Iraq and you know in that sense I think it it we don't forget that easily because you know by the way it adjusted for which you shouldn't it's a bit crude this but adjusted for population size we lost more people actually in Iraq and Afghanistan than America did um so so you know there's there's those

that gets done to friendships and relationships you don't forget? Well, I mean, listen, let's just be very clear about this. I mean, Trump at the NATO summit refused, refused to kind of, you know, guarantee the Article 5 mutual defense sort of thing. He just wouldn't, you know, he got asked the question five different times. One of his answers was absolutely, you know,

He's like, there's many ways to define that. I mean, like, you know, when you think about the fact that he's pressured, you know, all these countries and you just used a great example that the UK suffered, you know what I mean, per population worse than we did in that war that we started, you know, I mean, these are the sorts of things that it goes back to what you just said. We have the reserve currency of the world. We have...

you know, so much more leeway on almost everything. And when you think about the NATO spent, they're going to be buying our crap from Lockheed, from Raytheon, you know, all that sort of stuff from Boeing, which is great. So I agree with that as an American, that's phenomenal, but we've definitely weakened our standing among the EU, among the UK, and a lot of it's through like bullying. And I just, I'm not sure that's like a real sustainable sort of policy. Well, and this is the big question I have for the markets. And it really comes back

to whether bond yields follow what we've seen in the dollar in the first half of the year. So the data we got in the last month or so, which I think went back to April, didn't in fact reveal huge amounts of foreign selling of US treasuries. Obviously, the dollar is down 10% year to date, which I discussed with Jack Lew in the latest episode quite a lot. But if we do see going forward, foreigners wanting to rush away from US treasuries, then I think...

this is a massive moment in time. But oddly, despite the move in the dollar, we didn't see that that much yet. You know, you do have to look though at the changing market dynamics factor. If you're a Japanese investor, you can now get over 3% on your long bond. And if you had been holding a US treasury to get an extra percent or whatever,

You've just lost 10% in the currency. So these things do matter. Forget whatever Donald Trump's doing. Forget any of the change in like, can we trust this? Is it going to get taxed more? Is there going to be some new tariff? Just look at when markets change direction and how that changes mentality. And obviously with equities, that hasn't happened in a lasting way yet. We're back to all-time highs. But it'll be interesting if you do get a kind of more prolonged pullback or more prolonged plateau in the market while the dollar's weakening.

let's see what happens to international investors then all right so what's the perception though in in the uk and the eu about the weakness of the dollar i mean we're basically you know 16 off those 2022 highs you could also say that back in you know the throes of the pandemic the dixie the us dollar index was at 90. so here we are at 96 and a half or something like that maybe this is just a trading range but when you think about what that means for u.s multinationals you know what i mean like

This is a great thing, right? And so think about one of the reasons why during quantitative easing, when, you know, Fed lowers Fed funds rate, you know, you're hoping that yields go down, you're hoping that dollar weakens and then you have that as sort of a tailwind. So the only problem we have right now, dollar great for U.S. multinationals. We're reorienting trade. Supposedly, you just use the example

with the UK, and now we have a situation where if the Fed were to cut rates, that maybe is one of the reasons why Trump is basically blasting Powell every other day on that sort of thing. They think that deregulation, all this stuff is like a powerful cocktail for reinitiating some sense of growth that is above this kind of 2% threshold that we've been stuck at for a while in GDP.

I mean, I think on the dollar, it doesn't get much coverage in the UK. I think that...

the stronger pound obviously does and the pound on a trade-weighted basis is back to where it was just before Brexit so it is a significant moment that by the way is disproportionately good for the UK because we're a services-based economy and we don't export that many goods anymore so it doesn't hurt us that much having a stronger currency whereas we've had quite an inflation problem of late and it helps us a little bit on that side of things so you know the stronger pound is

is probably a good thing more than a bad thing for the UK. I think the real market perspective on the US is, you know, again, it's not so much what the administration is doing. It's are we overvalued relative to the kind of risks and rewards that are out there at the moment? And, you know, I think...

definitely relative to recent history that looks worse on a risk-reward basis when you look at the challenges. But at the same time, it's...

pretty well covered yeah you know it's probably priced in and when everyone's talking about it you know as tom lee's been been right and much more than everyone else has it's it's you know it's hard to call yeah and you know one of the interesting things when the dollar was being sold a couple months ago and treasuries were being sold um european equities were being bought i mean the outperformance was um really staggering you know the one thing i just want to say is like so

I'm getting ready. I'm going to go up to Fast Money after this. And the A Block, I already know this because our producer sent down a rundown. It's like, we're going to talk about the dollar.

We're going to talk about the dollar for like 10 minutes. And, you know, again, I get it. It's one of the biggest like it's as far as volatility is concerned in the market right now. Like this is like one of the most volatile risk assets. So let's be clear. But, you know, I'm going back and I'm looking from the highs in 2017 when Trump was in office. We had the dollar, the U.S. dollar index go from 104 down to like 89.

okay then in 2020 you know trump was still in office we saw the us dollar index go from like 103 down to 89 you know and so here we are those are like 15 moves now we're down 15 in last year i just don't know like why this is so important why are we spending so much time talking about this it just seems like kind of a run in the mill and i know that sounds crazy for a currency to have a 15 move like that i don't know like help me out because you used to

have two hours of a show, the closing bell. Would you want to start? Well, Sarah definitely would have. Would you want to start the A Block with just 10 minutes of the dollar?

Interesting. I think it is, not if it's done every day of the week, you know, it gets repetitive. But no, I think it's an absolutely core issue at the moment. I mean, as we mentioned, by the way, earlier today, the Taiwan dollar had a 2.5% move today. Last month, it had a sudden, or it was back in May, it had a sudden 7% move. You know, a lot of these Asian currencies are meant to be pegged. Yeah. And...

I reference that because you might suddenly get a hedge fund blow up type moment. There's clearly people caught off side when a pegged currency suddenly has a big move. So I think in market dynamics, that's relevant. I think, you know,

Is this a moment in time when bond yields are rising and the dollar is selling off? Now, that was a moment in time temporarily, but it ceased. I think that's the bigger fear because that is, again, a suggestion that there's some crazy market dislocation happening. But as you said, we went up to 4.5 or whatever on the 10-year. We're back down at 4.2. So those two things aren't happening in tandem, at least over the short term. The only thing I'd just come back to on the overall trade perspective is

and maybe I have a slightly different view on this coming from the UK. The US is capable of kind of doing everything on their own. The US is capable, it takes time, can't do it overnight, but of starting to suddenly boost its manufacturing and export stuff to the world. You can make great stuff, you have to hire the right people and it takes a bit of retail. We can't do that in the UK. Most individual European nations can't do that. And in that sense, if it's a concerted effort

which it sort of feels like despite the stock answer otherwise, for the administration to weaken the US dollar to be able to boost exports and do that sort of thing over time, it could work. I'm not suggesting that it seems likely overnight.

But that is, again, you cannot bet against the U.S. economy in that sense. Well, yeah, but there's an article in the Wall Street Journal today we'll put in the show notes. Amazon is on the cusp of using more robots than humans in its warehouses. The e-commerce giant now counts more than one million of the machines in its facilities. You know, we just saw this huge data center that Meta is building down in Louisiana. It's like the size of 17 football fields. They're going to have 5%.

I mean, think about that. So I guess my point is you could say we're forcing manufacturing back here. Whoever makes the robots, that's great. You know what I mean? Yeah, but you need to do that. And we as a country that I think thrives when we're close to the US need you to do that because China's doing that. I mean, I think the policy of containment on China, according to a couple of very well-informed people I've spoken to about this, has not worked.

they're probably still a little bit behind

in kind of core AI and other kind of core areas, but they won't be in a year or two. Obviously, they're way ahead on EVs already. That's not even a debate anymore. Really top quality EVs for $30,000. I mean, it's just... And less. And they give you away full self-driving for free. Different class. And I think the other point, by the way, on that, the talent pool they have, you talk about Jolt's ticking up, ticking down, how many people available...

the quality of the workforce for what is needed for the next decade is there in Asia and it's plentiful in China. So I think it's a real problem, by the way. The containment hasn't worked and if people aren't brought in from the cold and there's not some kind of partnership, I think China's going to overtake. This is a really interesting perspective. I remember this from when I arrived in the US in 2016. I'd started my career in...

in finance and I did Asian equities predominantly for four of the six years or so I was doing it and I remember coming here in late 2015-2016 and just that US mindset of well of course America's always going to be the biggest economy in the world there was almost just like there's well there's no it's just not going to happen and I think that's what's played out over the last decade which is

If an economy would possibly be bigger, even if they play fair and square, I'm not suggesting China's played fair and square, it's impossible for America to kind of

accept that and you know I think it's it's it's a big problem over the next yeah we don't have a level of consistency on that front we've seen you know a lot of us our biggest multinationals kind of diversify their supply chains I think a lot of that had to do with COVID I mean I think it was already underway and to me it's just really interesting a lot of these big wins and I say this

in air quotes, you know, that we've seen in the last since inauguration have, you know, I find that the calendar, the timetable really interesting. All these companies have said Apple or whether it was Masa or whatever, over the next four years. It was all like over the next four years, over the next four years. And they're just sitting there and they're kowtowing to the president. And that's fine. I just don't think the likelihood of bringing back, reshoring, let's say, you know, it's these supply chains. Think about an Apple iPhone.

Think about the components that go into it. Think about the labor as such a big part of it. And, you know, we built these iPhone cities over there or they built them for us to make them over there. So the idea that we're going to see some meaningful sort of change in that regard, we might be able to make chips here down in Phoenix or, you know, up in near Syracuse, New York or this or whatever, but they still have to go somewhere. There's not manufacturing of the end devices here. Listen, I don't know where we end up, but I go back to that.

kind of point with where the US UK seems to have end up which is despite extraordinary pain volatility craziness to get there maybe the outcome is you know everyone just has slightly higher tariffs it's bigger for China than it is for the UK and that might be their goal all along with

with a just crazy route to get there. It's interesting to hear, especially in this moment in time where we got so much going on, again, with tax and trade and, you know, NATO and the geopolitics. And you just mentioned, you know, the kind of differing stance that we're taking as it relates to Russia and Ukraine versus Iran and the like here. I want to hit on some things before we get out of here, because this is stuff that I've really, really enjoyed. And I've gotten to know you over the years, starting back to 16. And

I've always been really fascinated and I would have loved to have met your dad. And you've been, the way that you have carried on his, the influence that he's had, like literally on the world. I know that sounds really big, but please for the listener who doesn't know,

know just explain your dad's career for a second and then we'll get into some of the the the i guess the work that you've created since then well so dad david frost like started in television in the uk in 1963 in fact doing what was really i think the precursor to snl it was called that was the week there was it was a satirical show taking on the establishment and he did that only in fact for a couple of years before pivoting he always had comedy in in the background

pivoting to interviewing which became his bread and butter for then 50 years. I think that's the kind of striking first point of his career. He was on air until the day he died in 2013 50 years later and then additionally to that you'd have to flag that he did that on both sides of the Atlantic and further afield, Middle East and Australia as well and he interviewed such a broad spectrum of people. So from

from Beatles and Elton to politicians, from Mandela to Putin to Gorbachev to seven prime ministers and nine US presidents. - Didn't he do Nixon or no? - And a certain US president called Richard Nixon, exactly. So the breadth, the depth and the longevity of it was I think unrivaled

compared to any broadcaster globally. Yeah, and so you've done, and I know in many ways it's to celebrate his career, but it's also like illuminating the work that you have done. And let's go back. Let's just kind of roll through it a little bit. So through your company, Paradigm Productions, you guys like scoured between the UK and the US to get outspoken

like hundreds of hours, dozens of hours of his... Well, he did over 10,000 interviews and over, you know, he died 12 years ago. I bought back a lot of the rights. I control 75% of those interviews now. Digitized, cataloged them, you know, uncovered some stuff that had literally been lost for a generation since it first aired in the 60s and 70s.

did the first season of the podcast called The Frost Tapes in 2020, the second season in 2022, and both of which I'm super proud of, and I know you're a big fan of. And then that was kind of led to the TV series, which is what I always kind of wanted to get to, which just came out this year on Sky in the UK, MSNBC here called David Frost Versus. And for that, we did six episodes of

of moments in history where we felt he had a particularly uniquely close relationship. You know, the Middle East, he interviewed everyone for 50 years. So there's an episode on that. Nixon obviously gets its own episode. Elton John, he interviewed 10 times and they were very close. Muhammad Ali, 12 times. So people and moments in history that we could revisit via just his archive, his front row seat to history and history.

Yeah, that all came out a few months ago. Well, you know, I've listened to the podcast. I've seen the episodes of David Frost versus... They're truly extraordinary. They're like time capsules. And...

I mean, man, there's nobody in the current media landscape that I can think of who could do what he did and bring out the sort of discussions and just the raw emotions. I mean, the Ali one was just amazing. Over the course of his career, all of those interviews that he had, and you could see this relationship building over many years. It really is amazing. We're going to put some of the clips up.

in the show notes and be sure to follow the Frost tapes and definitely wait. It's going to be coming out on streaming again, David Frost versus, is that correct? It is. We haven't done the deal yet. We're deciding who it's good. It's aired once each on MSNBC. We'll be streaming in the U.S.,

before too long. Yeah, and just on the frost tapes really quickly, and you can get that in the podcast story. I was floored at the time when they came out in 2020. It was during the presidential campaign. You had a never before listened to interview of your dad and Joe Biden, the first time he ran for president, I want to say in the late 80s, maybe, does that sound right? 88 or something? It was 88. It was just amazing to get a sense of who he was

you know, 35 years ago or whatever it was because he was a he was a different guy in many ways. And that's a guy I would have voted for. You know, it was just really interesting. So again, go go go check all of that out. Last thing, let's talk about the podcast here. I know we just kind of alluded to it. So the master investor podcast, who else do you have coming on? I mean,

Dan Niles, I thought there was two things that I really loved about that conversation. You definitely talked about the here and now, but he also laid out his framework. You seem to be very interested in how he thinks about investing in single names, but also more from a macro standpoint. Yeah, so I think different to my time on CNBC where five, two-hour shows a week, I'm only doing one of these shows.

per week and you know episodes will be sort of 30 to 40 minutes long so I think that gives me a chance over a long form conversation to make at least half of it about their investing style or if it's a business leader their leadership style and kind of career highlights that we can learn from particularly if they're kind of thinking about them today as well as the here and now as you said and yeah with Dan his

His answer at the end about his tip to investors, he cited Charles Darwin and said, it's not the strongest that wins, it's not the smartest that wins, it's the most adaptable. And then he likened these violent markets, you've got to be ready to adapt and pivot on a dime. I thought that was absolutely fascinating.

We asked Jack Liu this morning his overriding piece of advice for people in leadership. So tune in to the podcast episode to listen to that. And yeah, next week I've got Jeremy Grantham, who's perhaps Britain's greatest living investor. I imagine he'll be bearish and we'll push him on why. No, I think he's called...

four of the great market bubbles in the last 50 years. Maybe he's been a bit early on a couple of them, but he's called them properly. So it'd be important to listen to Ray Dalio the following week and Thomas Petty the week afterwards. And what I would just say is all, I don't think anybody has said no. So I've gone out to all of the big, big names and I don't want to start

teasing them when I haven't got a formal date and a green light from their comms team to do so. But all of the biggest names pretty much have said yes. And I'm really, I find that very heartwarming because obviously I've spent a lot of time building up these relationships. But I also think there's a difference on this. I think that what I'm offering is that slightly different type of conversation to the ones I used to have with them in CNBC, but also the ones that

that are available in the UK. This is going to be available globally, obviously, but in the UK. And I think that there aren't that many great places in the UK where they often go on. And I guess I'll try and deliver that for them. And I think because they're doing a long-form conversation

with a Brit in London if we can do it in person when they're there. I think they'll face slightly different questions and I hope that'll be revealing. Yeah, well, we've learned this, Guy and myself, over the last nearly five years. It's like, folks, they're getting sick of the soundbrites. You know what I mean? They want to actually sit down and have a conversation and be able to kind of have follow-up questions and kind of get into some of the nuance. And I know that's what you're doing. You've already demonstrated that in the first episode

uh, interview, uh, with Dan Niles. I can't wait to hear the one with Jack Liu, uh, Wilford Frost. Thanks for coming over and being a part of the risk reversal podcast. It's always a pleasure, Dan. Thanks so much for, for having me. And, uh, I look forward to the next trip of, uh,

billionaire friends you bring to London. And we went to an Arsenal game. Sadly, it was a draw. This January, it's going to be, I looked at the date that we have, it's going to be a Chelsea game. So Arsenal's out of town. Well, I hope it's not a win for the home team then. And I hope you'll join me on the podcast in person. I would love to. That would be amazing. Dan, thanks so much for having me. Thanks.