Are Markets Delusional, or is This Time Truly Different?
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Is deep. Right, turn on each other and try to be the first to come up with a plea deal and give up. Or they're going to eat each other up or are they going to fat to the brutal in between? Now, january twenty.

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Hello and welcome to this edition of find you. I am your host, Chris Martin, here again with paul cater of kiker wealth management. Hey paul, how are you today?

Hi Chris. I'm doing well. Good to see you again. great.

So much to talk about. We're going to be talking about markets obviously thin finance related. Um got a bunch of stuff going on.

I want to start here with this. This is the S N. P. Over time. You and I talked about something mysterious happening back here on october thirty.

This just been that ruler, straight advance, barely counted as a correction, huge advance. This got a little dodgy for second, but IT since broken out again. And by the way, paul, this is kind of a global thing, you know.

And we could note that the german decks breaking out, smashing through above twenty thousand and and I say that with that incredulous my economic data, paul, coming out of germany, IT is smells like rodneys um it's not good layoffs, a bad earnings you name IT. So I I don't know how to make center that except in my old school way, which is I guess there's ample liquidity, more buyers than sellers. That's all I can figure.

IT sure seems that way. I don't understand at all what's taking place in germany. And and because of just what's taking place, their their economies being good and the us, I still believe that, that were kind of in that speculative phase.

But a lot of that makes sense because I think more than sixty percent of the population actually has hope. Again, this trump administration is going to break up the monopoly. Those that are in the abbey, our closest to the money trainers and closest to the regulation process that have been protecting monopoly know, of course, you've shared what markham Jason had talked about the joe roan pod cash.

No, just and I was going surprised by that because that yeah, it's not that often then i'm not cynical enough. So but I do see the hope that out there, I see people that have hope that the small businesses are gonna have a chance again. And if we get the with the chevron ruling and get regulation out of the way and the please don't have this unfair advantage, if the rules to the again, come back to the same, that we're going to have innovation.

The middle class is going to come back. We're going to have small business innovation. So I get the hope. I don't think the markets are going to continue to be as resilience and going forward, maybe maybe not. But I didn't understand anything about was taking place in germany yet because there's not been any major innovation that just seems to be liquidity or pure specular.

Yeah, you know i've seen this. This isn't my first radio. So paul, analyze almost everything through that liquidity gauge.

Now remember, the stock market is supposed to be this forward discounting machine and it's the sum of all this intelligence. But I actually think that was true. Or back in the day when they were humans involved.

Can we be honest about this? Ninety percent of all the trades that go through the drive the market this way that we have nothing to do with humans, except for the humans that programmed the algorithms that circulate through the silicon PS. But but they don't do greed and fear.

Those algorithms, paul, they don't remember. You know, the all of the technical analysis that you cut your teeth on that I did to IT was there because if you peared at the charge, you understood basically the sum of all fears and hopes and greed, right? I don't know that algorithms do that kinds stuff. They don't really care now .

they don't. But the question that I have crisis, those algorithms, the programs are put together by by humans with the weaknesses that we have, right? So the question is, is that built into the algorithms? Or is that just the fact that they're gone off of past historical data? This happened in the past.

So this is what's going to happen in the future. So you know that kind of brings demand, something that I had here to share. I can find IT yes, this um the cycle and market emotions and I know people have seen this you know time and time again, but it's still applies. So if you can see this, I want to give credit to the twitter post. So financially at financial what day we are now, what would you artifice the stage where in right now, Chris.

oh, where on near the top over there, on the left somewhere past greed. We're in delusion.

Maybe we're in agreement. I'm thinking in the delusions area yeah.

that feels about right.

Ah so for those you listening, you bow. Markets tend to go through these phases. So the first phase is the still phase. That's where the smart money starts to move. What to put them perspective, you know a lot of your insiders or or net cellars right now.

So we're starting to see the smart money is not necessarily accumulating, but then the bull market takes off once the smart money moves. And then you get in the awareness phase and you'll typically have the first cell off in that awareness space because everybody still scared, then you start to enter that mini affair. You know IT starts to get media attention, then you get some enthusiasm.

That's where the public really starts to join and then you get the grade and then you get the delusion. And quite Frankly, the delusion is understandable within the us right now, there's a lot of hope that things are going to change, but we have a tremendous amount of hurdles to overcome. And then the final stage, which I don't think we're there yet.

But if this market runs into the spring, I think it's gonna. Hey, here's the new paradigm and that's the blow off face in the point of the greatest risk, Frankly. So so i'm not agreed with you. I think we're in the delusion phase, right?

That's I see IT, but you know these these algorithm is paul, there were morsels.

It's kind of like, you know, if I had to stand a machine gun nest and there was a tank shooting at me, i'm going to display a lot of fear, right? But I could program an algorithm that would just sit there and keep shooting and IT wouldn't flinch, right? Because IT just doesn't it's I don't know, you know, it's hard to get a number, but last I heard, uh, something like seventy five, eighty percent of all trades on the market or by high reconcile trading firms. They're not even holding these stocks poll because of good earnings. Or delusions or stories or narratives are holding them for about ten microseconds to a few hundred million seconds.

right? They will continues as long as the market momentum continues to go up. They just keep by regardless if you know there's the threat of escalation of war. Hey, you think of that nature.

they just don't care. No, no, they don't care. Now i'd like to introduce the views of paul toter Jones, pretty famous, pretty legendary investor kind of guy and he's introducing a term here, kaby, which I I wasn't that familiar with, but caf aby is is that state of agreement that exists between wwf performers and the audience where everybody knows it's fake, but they agree not to talk about that kid baby kay, that state of suspended disbelief that exists within the pro wrestling world. All right. So just make sure I got this dialed bloud enough so we can hear this and gop .

earn that i'd never heard of called k fab. And in reston, parolles, that represents .

the unspoken.

unwritten test, a agreement between the restless and the fans .

about the illusion that's going .

on in the ring. The suspension of of disbelief that was going on the ring is actually, we know it's scripted and we know it's a performance, but they ask us to think it's genuine and real. And yeah, we're in an economic k fabric right now and it's not just in nice days where in in the UK in france, greece, italy, japan, japan being the bigger of all, is this economic cave. And the question is, is after this election, will we have a minsky moment here in the nine states in us debt markets? Will we have a minsky moment where all of the center, there's a point of recognition that what's gna happen or or what they're talking about is actually fiscally impossible, financially impossible.

So are you betting on a minsky moment?

I am clearly not going to own any fixed income, and i'm going to be short the back end a fixed income because it's just completely the wrong prize. I had not .

heard that .

importer twitter Jones is brilliant for those of you that don't knowing yeah .

economic k fabs. So so, so two things to decode for people. The minsky moment, hymen minsky turned this thing that sort of i'm going party rase is badly but the way I understand a poll and add to this, if if you can, um that that everything sort of persist along until that moment when people recognize that IT wasn't what they thought I was and then you get this the sudden sharp shocks to the system a minsk y moment is sort of like everybody deciding that the dollar is way over value and running for the exit all at once and the exit is only going to be this big. I'm holding the fingers up in a little circle so um but it's interesting he took that um saying, listen, this cave is is existing across all these economies but he interpreted that to say i'm not holding fixed income. How do you read that?

yes. Well that tells me in his estimation that the fixed income market is completely in and press which know we've always been told that the bond raters of the smartest individuals in rome and they are they really are, but the market the bond market, in his assessment, i'm assuming, based on what he says, has not pressed the long term risk to the capital from default, whether that's corporate or inflationary pressures from government spending because something is gonna have to break. So that would be my assumption. What would your assumption be? grease.

That it's clearly obvious regardless of whatever might come in with trump in the department of government efficiency with elon reveal, regardless of whatever they might do like when you really peal at back, paul, there's not a lot you can do cause when you look at um what will call fixed expenditures to the U. S. Government compared discretionary that much directionally.

Um you know and so you're not onna. Do you can't just decide not to pay the one point two five trillion interest payment this year that fixed if you don't pay that worse things results. So that's getting paid. So security, medicare, medicate not much you can do about that stuff. You can try and find some efficiency. And there are, I suppose, but you know that's long and slow 啊， i guess you could cut defense heavy, but of course, that has its own economic impacts and conversant screen and all the radio and locky market lobby is screaming that that's a hard fight too. So so I think what he's basically saying is, look, we have a fiscal problem coming, and I don't think the bond market is recognized IT.

And therefore, I don't want if anything, i'm not not only am I not owning these, i'm going to be constructively short the long into this thing, meaning that you, the ten paper, twenty years, thirty year paper, whatever those pieces are, he wants to be short that that that words that now guys like paul tute talk in their book all the time, right? You know? But let's leave open the possibility of saying that, but buying the long end of the curve. Always leave that possibility open.

That is possibility that is. But i'm absolutely terrified of the long an and I know you know just because of the fundamental of what's taking place out there. If the trump administration is able to pull this off perfectly or you know what's going to happen within within the deep state right now, I mean, it's clear that they're coming after they're trying to to have full disclosure or late before the american people.

So is the deep state on a you know like rat turn on each other and try to be the first to come up with a plea deal and give up or they're going to eat each other up or they are going to fat to the brutal in between now january. And if there's if there's if the reality comes out that our liability are far greater than what are known right now, which is another possibility, then that could be really devastating to the to the long end. Because if we get into a situation where the government has to plant that there's no other option, are they choose to plant right, then that's gna absolutely crush the you longer into the yellow ve.

And that means rights are higher. And and he would be right to be short. Those long in. And the short run looks to me like we're gonna a rally, which may be a trade rally in the twenty year. I don't know that only professionals only not a recommendation. But you know when you look at longer, it's I would lean to the to the sad that he is. I'm more concerned about our fixed income portfolio navigating the days ahead correctly, which we have the rules in place, they have their rules in place were shorter on the yoka right now done more concerned about that over the next three to five years than I am the equity side of the portal.

Um but I honestly, paul, I mean, I understand how I could happen from the ducal certain aspects. But if you SAT me down instead, would you buy thirty year government paper at four point five percent interests? Like, no.

no, no.

I have to be confident that that thirty year papers gonna worth. What do they say it's worth by the year twenty fifty four? Not a chance. No.

there's no way. There's too much risk. I mean, the ban administration already let the few for the bricks to come up with their alternative payment system, whether they roll out the unit or not.

And I thought I was quite interesting. The first thing that did you hear about truth in his threat to the brakes, they, they, their own currency, that it'll be a hundred percent terrorists. you. And the only thing that I could think of at that point is we are to the point in our country where we have to threat with force you verbally from that time point, that if you do this, we're going to do everything that we can defeat you. To the nail with .

a couple of things. I mean, he can say that, but let's get down to reality real quick. We are one hundred percent import dependent on china for about eighteen critical minerals, right? Gallium, germania, titanium.

Like just pretty much harder percent also. Uh, we get something stupid, like half of our uranium comes from russia, so that's fine. But you know the uranium, the nuclear power plane and industry is going to be, dude, you just made our our fuel goal one hundred percent, you know that's going have impacts, right?

obviously. So it's one thing to say hundred percent tf. It's another when you get down to the details.

that's right. Well, and think about the inflationary impacts that that's gonna. If the say he actually does that, that's going to be highly inflationary til we can rebuild within the united states.

And then that's going be inflationary itself because our labor is a lot more expensive than is, at least for now in the other countries that are out there. So there's going to be a period of time and that inflationary pressure would absolutely destroyed the long into the world. Ah so so we're in a very tough situation. Where is gonna be navigated perfectly and with god's Grace to come out of this without without any bumps or bruises or or canasta pic event?

Yeah .

well.

it's certainly requires being nimble and, you know, having a risk managed approach. I got to tell you, paint this is embarrassing. But probably every other night for the past three or four weeks, I wake up at two in the morning, I just have to turn my phone on.

I just look at the futures. And just like, is anything happened because i'm kind of expecting something to happen and nothing happens, nothing, nothing. And that nothing actually alarms me more than a something at five or ten percent correction would actually make me feel Better.

But we have things like the irrational ic hazle, you know not nuclear tip politics, missile being fired and the market just kind of goes up you know um is just absolutely feels like you said delusional, right? Where a delusion is there's reality and you're disconnected from IT. That's delusional. So I feel like these markets don't have much grounding. And what I would call geopolitical risk, risky risk, cycle risk because we used to have these things called cycles are old enough to remember these things.

Yes, I do know was that was one of the hardest things for me from a number from a ball of the rules are strategy. But you're like this cycle was really over extended. It's really over extended. It's really over extended. And and IT seems like these cycles have gone away due to the government intervention that's current in the past and train vestals like pb loves all or the algorithms just put at that way.

Yeah yeah now speaking to your um your chart where you said under that delusional part IT was sort of you said I think there was a stealth, then there was a smart money and then retail, right retail was the third big block of that. So again, uni ve talked about this in the past but this is from super luck and he looks like retail has never been this guy on stocks.

They never never .

been this certain about things. Um so so that's that's the retail participation and this is an astonishing pilot. And how do you get A U turn like I mea what happened in late twenty twenty two to cause that to happen?

Fear of missing out. And you know so I think what happened in like twenty, twenty two, and I think this has been something that just slowly worked on the psyche of so many individuals because, Chris, they get to the point where where passive money flows or are they are not Price sensitive bars. IT goes to work no matter what.

So the employment has been pretty good. Investors are are hurting into the S M. P. Five hundred. There's all kinds of matrix that are saying and you know the us.

In relation to the rest of the world markets is that the most distorted that is ever ban. So the one, one theory that I have this changed. I think this cycles going to end with the USB.

Like japan in the light eighties, nobody ever believed that IT would change. But they they had the largest capitalization of of global stocks. And then thirty five years later took the market was named back to where IT was in that.

And I think this cycle is going to in that way for us equities. But I believe it's also I mean, look, the fed stepped ed in with quantitate of easing and what was QE one in two thousand and thirty? Operation twist was around two thousand and thirteen. Then there was QE one QE to, I forgot how many quantitative easing.

So that keeps step. Then I was all fall in apart in september of two thousand nineteen. But yes, thankfully covered came along and gave an opportunity to throw five trail into the into the Kitty.

yes. So they cut interest rates, and you've got more computers writing now than what you had back in two thousand. Thirteen of the computers are studying and on looking at market behavior when the feed intervene or they cut rates and then pop fits off to the races.

And then, like twenty, twenty two, IT really look like the market was going to start to come apart. IT finds a bottom, I think yelling started doing some things with treasury, which calls liquidity to pick back up again. And then now you've got a lot of investors, especially retail, that are just like, hey, i've been watching this thing run.

I thought that I was going to end. I can't take IT anymore. I'm gonna IT. And so there's a huge amount of fear of missing out that's in the psychology of the retail investor right now. There's a lot of greed.

There's a lot of delusion because nobody y's really paying an attention to the witness that potentially under the surface. And what makes you hard and manage your money is, Chris. We don't know if this is going to run to january six. Is is going to run in the April.

Is this going to be like the light nineteen nineties where trumps able to do enough initially to where the economy holds up a lot stronger? Or or we're gonna this minsky moment where where bonds, trader and value yields jump and then all of the sudden in the market like IT did maintain seven, three years. Oh, and then we have this forty, fifty, sixty percent of clan y mathematically we should.

But the question is, what's so hard to manage the money right now? You you've got to play the game by the rules that are forced upon you, and you ve got to participate some because what if IT lunched three years. But this is a highly risky rally, and there's all kinds of indications around the edge that the professionals are using this delusion and fear missing out to offload their shares under the average tell investor. And so I believe for the average tell investor, this is probably the most dangerous market that we've have seen in at twenty six year career.

Well, the former big pillars. So this was easier to analyze when I was Younger because there was there was autos, homes and retail, right? If you just understood those three things, you directly got pretty much what was happening.

Now obviously, the government is a very large player in this market. Um they are a big, big chunk of the economy. And now you got that's a fourth leg of the stool and there's all the other A I E stuff. You know A I isn't that which we've talked about before. Again, we'll see what what that really turns into.

But speaking of the retail, I mean, the housing section from the cobi letter, new home sales in the most recent report dropped by one hundred twenty thousand and october to six hundred ten thousand, lowest in couple of years, um significantly below expectations of selling seven hundred and twenty five thousand new homes. You can see the little tick down there. Not an emergency, not an emergency, but it's leading to not an emergency.

This is an emergency. But you can clearly see that are the number of new completed single family houses for sale has been spiking pretty hard. Here with the rise in interest rates, uh, no surprise there.

But still, you know, Normally this would have been something you could look at and go at the sign of economic weakness right there. You not cell in houses. They are stacking up.

Doesn't seem to matter anymore. I'm not sure what there must be. Other legs on the steel light on the understand haven't found them yet.

Well, I think IT doesn't matter just because the average individual thinks that everything is going to be instantly fixed over the next twelve months. I really do believe that.

And I know, look, ki won the popular vote, but I think it's, well, more than sixty to seventy percent of the population, just based on my observation, that have all this hope that things are going to be great and trumps going to be able to solve all of our problems immediately. But there is there is a massive hurdles to overcome so that that optimism is an indication of the delusion that we're in because it's OK to be optimistic. I'm optimistic of the shaver, shaver ones dying.

If if we release all this information for the american people, instead of our our politicians serving themselves, they move back to serving the american populus. Chris, the innovation that we're gone to have come out when these monopoles are no longer protected, this is going to be incredible because you've been in the business world. Monopoles don't want innovation.

They want to a milk every penny that they can out of the product that, that they have until they're forced to do something else because they cost money to change that process and reinvestment. So if we can if we can eliminate the protection around the monopoly, our quality of life, I believe us citizens are going to increase dramatically. We're onna have Better products, small businesses, middle class going to come driving back again.

But at the same time, that's going to change just when you got what is IT. I can't remember the numbers right now, but the know the top stocks thirty five to thirty seven percent of p five hundred. So if their protection has gone, then that's gna calls of a major difference in the overall markets.

In the markets should be lower at some point, but the average investor is ignoring that right now. And they're spending like it's gonna all sunshine and rainbows because they have this optimism. But they are not taking the time to really think about the risks associated under the surface that could cause us to stumble and fall in and you know, have some bombs .

and bruises. So I think a big area is going to be particularly I am really looking forward to getting some rationality back in our health care system, and we're going to be have a food web on our coming up because, you know here's what we've learned.

We've learned that in the united states, the fda has been absolutely in bed with industry and has just allowed any practice to go through to the point that um you know we ve got toxins in our foods, various dies and colors that don't need to be there, that europe doesn't use, that you could use natural coLorings like beat juice instead of red die number ten, whatever. So we've learned all of that and and i'm hopeful that we can get rid of a lot of unnecessary health care spending out course is gona hit the farm industry. But just to show you the power of this already, did you hear this IT turns out that fruit loop sales are down over fifty percent week over week just because of that news that came out about all of that.

R K. ju. Got on there, put a little thing out, show the package of these that why is all this junk and fruit ops and parents caught on in IT went viral.

This is not something you're going to read about in the mainstream news because their job is to protect the sales of this company. Um you know co og gotto protect kilogram despite their kilograms inarguably been putting stuff in their cereal. That's indefensible.

Like why, why, why, why put these nai chemicals? And there were yori, said IT paul, because they have a an open on IT and because because they can, nobody y's forced them to spend the extra half a penny per box to do with the right way. That's why, you know.

when you share that, the only thing that I could think of is in the bobble war, says my people down for lack of knowledge, and in all that secrecy and all that protections are, now the knowledge comes out, points IT at the parents. And the ones that care about their kids immediately make a decision to do something different. That's what we need.

That's what amErica supposed to be. And that's why the truth is so important. I haven't heard that, but IT doesn't surprise me because i'm i'm starting to see course break me one one of my time just had a second child machines.

He's got four kids. And there are having these conversations as you've been talking about food, web on are and things i've shared with them at the annual summer and the red labels now paying attention, sharing information with each other. And it's hopeful and especially with with the food web you have coming up, I cannot wait to and listen and arn.

but it's important stuff. I mean, if you haven't got your health, you know none of that matters. So in there's ways we can be lots healthier.

So um so we'll see how that all turns up. But again, you're right. This this that's what that's why I sort of object to watching whoever is I know they have it's very important to them.

Markets have to go up, right? And they spend a lot of time massaging that and it's a whole machinery and I get there their rational. And maybe i'd have the same one sitting in the hot seat poll.

I don't know, but I look at IT and is just not the truth, right? You know, the truth is letting real people sort the hash stuff out and sell on, but what they consider to be reality at that point time. So as we have a lot of unreality out there, I worry that people are going be harmed for lack of access to information. Yes, yes. Why I do what I do, right? That's like, again, information out there.

That's a ridiculously important role. I mean, the large that the people that have talked to hundreds of people around the nation that say you save their lives with the information that you shared with the man koen, you may not get hear that all of the time, but I hear all the different areas that you've shared, information that made life changing impacts on those who have have listened to you. That's that's a big deal.

You know, Chris, one thing that i'm concerned about is especially with with biden comes down, says I will not part of my son, I will not part of my son, I not part of my son and I I know i'm going down a rabbit ral b and I D to a point here. And then all of the sudden comes out with this blanket partner. And I want to table that for a minute because it's just absolutely unbelievable.

So what i'm worried about is we know how the media acts. It's all on technicities, right? The l ban created all these jobs after the covered restart.

Know he claims all these jobs and wants to make himself look great compared all the in history. But a lot of IT was just restarting the economy in, okay, in technical, they were jobs. What i'm concerned about is, is other forces right now that are driving this market into the end of the year and into the inauguration.

That one strong gets there. Lord, well, and he does. The rug comes out and all of the sun, you've got the next three to four years where the media doesn't change their ways. They're like, hey, you know, these stats were the best in the world while burden and the democrats were in there. And this is what you're face.

And now I just see all of this painting and deception and and tell you I want to tell you one thing and i'm doing something else and maybe i'm be an overly sync because I mean, looks like the momentum is is is gonna be positive and end of the year, all indicators are repointing that yeah we need a correction. But but that's one of the concerns that I have in the background. Is this all setting up for some technical to work as soon as trump gets in there? Whatever forces are are causing this delusional momentum in the Marks get rock bold.

And then the media forces been the next three to four years saying, oh, you had IT so much Better before. You had IT so much before, I don't know. That's just a thought that came in on what you're thought about that.

well. Look, let's be completely honest. Trump is going to be inheriting a boxer. lies.

Yeah, they were lying about the job market, right? They're lying about the strength of the economy. They are lying about inflation. They are lying about all of IT.

Who knows what will find if we really dig under the all of that right and and you mentioned, you know, the whole jobs saying like all look at all the jobs that that by and created. Presidents don't create jobs in the private sector, but they can they can influence jobs, the federal sector. So lan, all, and put this up just the other day.

Would you look at this billions of dollars that are spent on you interest payments? You look at, you look at this explosion right here, right? Well, the federal jobs has almost the exact same explosion during that same rate.

If you look at total federal jobs over time, they really like, I think we piled on like another one and a half, almost two million jobs in the last a few years here. So I had a minimum, if I was just coming to try and rationalize all this, I would say, you know what we're just reminding whoever you hired, I don't care what department you are. I don't care whether you have contracts on these people um whoever you hired in two thousand and twenty, just undo IT just start there. This were rewinding right, and don't make me mad, because I would like rewind to two thousand and fifteen, right? You know, just get IT done.

But you look at this, and just the .

shape of that chart that out to really scare people, paul IT, really should. Because that's just, this looks runaway. And you know I thought you probably saw too today we saw that the federal serve is putting out their first trial balloons to walk back the idea that there are going to be more interest rate cuts.

They're in a hard time justice cause inflation on the rise again in stock markets at all time highs and high powering higher. It's kind of hard to make an uh, uh a strong statement that we're having that you know that we're non permission like we have a liquidity problem. Man s hand out policy is still restrictive enough.

This in purple, this is j and k, and the blue is is the S, M, P. Five hundred. And look at this politic critique, junk bonds, high quality stocks.

Same story. Yeah, that's not restrictive policy. That's the feds just got the flag gates, wu. And now they started to make their first signs that they're like, well, people started to notice maybe we shouldn't cut quite as quickly.

And so those are already beginning to come off the table a little bit, which means just to make IT right up that this isn't going to be correcting anytime soon because this is being driven by the rate of interest in the U. S. Government, principally on the short end of the curve has to pay.

And if they're onna cut, then this isn't going to come down. This is going to keep doing that. Um why? Because the government is adding two trillion of new death to be served to this pile every single year.

So even if, even if isn't four percent.

if you could somehow get paper out the door, four percent you sold all ten years. Four percent of one trillion is another forty billion year. So another eighty billion would go on to this um which would be a pretty good chunk minimum.

And most dead is pulling future consumption for me. So you're spending your future today. But bar and money, if you invest in to something that can generate a tremendous amt of income, that's great.

You're investing in manufacturing where IT can produce more than the debt that you're pain. But all I could think of in that chart right there is you been doing some due diligence for for some clients that are looking to boss and businesses. So in that new diligence, you're trying to pour through everything that you can because every business owner in the three to four years prior to sell the business is gonna everything they can.

Those books as good as possible. If I saw a dtt share like that on any business that decline was wanted to invest into, you know what i'd tell him, Chris, i'd say, look, i'd take a chance on somebody else bind this. But how much just sit back and wait till they they get into the financial tribal and go bomb for pinny on the dollar when they have to go in the bankrupcy? Because because that's not a chart that I would be aggressively. You're recommending any climate aggressively, but I i'd wait till the inevitable pain and the consequences of their decisions were or can deformation and then take advantage buying IT so you're not stuck with IT corrections can happen.

It's fine. I actually like him, takes the dead world out. You know, I actually on this guy, I thought gm should have been allowed to go wander back in the day and like, oh, we would lose so much like, well, you on showed you could come along and create a whole new car company.

You know, he had a new innovator come in and an honestly, I think somebody how to just say, whoever built the two thousand five toyota, amy, hire them because those things won't die. Do those things, they're still on the road. They're so boring.

You go out every morning, they turn on and they go where they're supposed to go. And that's the end of the story, right? That's the that's the whole thing. You know they Operate .

and i'm sure they're stolen, but they're not the first car that somebody looks to steal. So there's a good chance in a bad area that you can come out and still get in the car.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. That two thousand five camry that that is like the drag and fly of car revolution, right? Like now we got IT like don't even change IT just keep making those somebody exceeds that level of of reliability.

yes. One thing I did want to share to so toby coast um and I like him, I know you've reference him more in the past, he points out and I talked about this before, about how the us he's just been accounting for the large majority but the only game in town of the major index is basically since two thousand and eight what for the past sixteen years it's up dramatically and I can show that chart a minute but he says, us dogs currently account for seventy three percent of the msa world index, the high single country lighting ever recorded in its history.

Of course, the overwhelming dominance of U. S. Equities have attracted to the majority of global capital, leaving the rest of the world largely overlooked and underfunded.

You know what point is the tide shift? We have no clue. But look at this chart. So this is a as of october, uh, november, the twenty, seventeen, seventy three percent compared to all of the rest of the countries of the world.

So you know, one thing that our strangers is signed to do, that waiting patiently until the day that IT tells us to shift our focus, is when is in the lead? You're when and overweight the us. But when the day comes that some of those other countries take off and those other economies take off, then you can underwrite the U.

S. And overweight others. But think about that. You in capitals easy, you can be sloppy. You can be lazy. You don't have to run everything efficiently and fine.

But the rest of these countries in the world, not all of them, and me, we look at what germany is doing, but you look at south america, some of the, and these others portugals been quite amazing. What they've been a poland and portugal, what they've been doing been quite amazing. So they're fine tune machines.

So whenever this, this bubble and this this chasing of U. S. Equities, because analysts, there is no alternative. Back when interest rates were low, buy equities because of tina, there is no alternative.

Everybody is saying, and the tina is, you ve got to buy us equities because there is no alternative. It's unsustainable IT really is. We don't know when IT breaks. But again, for those investors who are adaptive, it's going to be the opportunity .

of a lifetime n free doubt. I don't know why, but the federal reserve is desperately afraid of a correction, and we almost had one in october of twenty three. But then I just woke up one night, literally out one of those two thirty the morning drink and see the Green on my futures, like what's happening.

So somebody at two thirty in the morning decided that enough of that nonsense, and we went the other direction. But IT didn't. IT wasn't just, wasn't just a little thing.

So again, to the cob A C letter here talking about not just the strong of stock market we've had in well, but in decades. S, M, P, up twenty six point five percent this year. Bt, on track for best annual performance in twenty six years.

Paul, this year, like of all the things happening this year, i'm like, uh, this is our best forever. Like try make sense that fundamentally, but again, that doesn't matter at this stage because we're in a different part of the story. But since that october low, the S N P is now open.

incredible. Forty seven percent here all those years going back since nineteen ninety eight. Every year track is a gray square GLE. And here's this year on top of IT. It's now the best ever at this time of the year and might finishes the best stock market ever since one thousand nine and ninety eight.

That is why isn't .

that wild?

IT is especially with the .

backdrop.

Well, what happened after one hundred ninety eight? That moment i'm Carried for another two years. But then we had the forty seven percent cent from two thousand and two thousand three really back to even had the fifty seven percent climb in two thousand and eight.

S P. Hundred went side ways from two thousand and two thousand, fourteen, eight, two thousand and thirteen. So, you know, IT was all sunshine and rainbows until IT was IT.

And I just don't see how we know this cycle was gonna different. My concern is, is that we're going to break every historical record depending upon, you know, what happens over the next six, twelve, twenty four months. But you know, fundamental are gone to come back and realities, onna, come back and to play at some point in the future. For now, we have to participate really with fear and gambling.

so speak. King of the bricks, as you know, I track a lot of things because I think everything connects. And so at peak prosperity and often tracking things like what's happening in ukraine or what's going on in the oil markets or how these things connect.

And and so you know, I was very worried there for a while, pal, because we saw the us. And the U K. And then france dialing up to just shoot long range missiles in the russian. I thought that was a bad idea yes ah because I think i'm allowed to have that opinion.

And so yesterday i've find out the talker carlson's back in moscow because he's going to go straight to the source and he found out while he was there that j olive and cut off all contact between the us. And russia over two years ago, we have no back channel diplomacy, no front door diplomacy, not in no communication in reload missile in to russia. So those of us who thought that was a bad idea, so then russia shoots this arretium missile.

And I think, I think more than a few of the cog among the west were like, oh, oh, that that's a different risk. I'm actually at risk now. Our bunkers are no longer safe.

So things calmed down. Well, you know, that immediately got replaced by, and I did this for my subscribers, said yesterday. So the rubles now finally getting smoked yeah so in the bricks, this is the r, in the B, R, I, C is right.

And the dollar matters less and less on a percentage basis of doing more in rubble terms. And you on terms, but but still you know it's it's not on important russian bonds are now around twenty five and a half percent h right magine that. But now now we're turning to the eye in the bricks.

The rupee hits an all time new low. Just coincidentally, brazil, which is the b in bricks, is now over six, which is a line name in defending for a long time. And to just smash right, right on through that in the chinese, you on lowest it's been in the cycle, they they contain IT as tightly ly as they can.

But as you can see where that red doted lying down there, this is the lowest it's been. So when do you know at paul, after they failed to stoke a world war by loving a bunch of hot stuff in to russia? I wake up the next week, and I like all every bricks, currencies, getting smoke right now.

Maybe it's a coincidence. I don't know how how would you how would you look at that? too? Too cynical, not cynical enough. I don't know where to play myself anymore.

Don't think you're too signal in that came. Yes, I don't believe that that's a coincident. I look mean, I don't do IT for clients, but I really enjoy currency trading up until about two thousand and thirteen when something came in and they distorted the currency markets.

So I still enjoy follow them. That's not something that that would just happen out of the blue I mean, westly economic reason behind IT, you know that happens to come through. I mean, that's a warfare tactics is to go after their currency.

And when you look at you hear of what's taking place out of russia and how their economies holding up far Better than what anybody anticipated. You know china has got all kinds of problems. So I can understand china a little bit more.

But brazil, india, they're plugging along just, just fine based on all the data that we're looking at. That doesn't make sense that if IT was just china wouldn't be that wouldn't ise my browse that much and wouldn't lead me to our cynics. But when you're when we got the rubel and the ruby and the real brazil and real that I don't think that's a coincidence.

But I just says that looked that is warfare by any other name and I get in international trade as bernal Browning.

And you got trump in in place now, which I if you saw canada was complaining about some terms or something this day, how about if you just become our fifty first state and trudeau, you can be governor, right? He, he, he plays that he definitely trumped has got the heart of the deal down you know he does doesn't play the nice game like you're supposed to, you know. Oh, well, we are long tradition between our two countries and we value each other and were going to right.

But I think .

he's I think I think he's playing hard ball, getting ready to play hard ball with all these countries out there.

And so well, I mean, tonight he's going to have to because you can see most of most of them have been in support of the deep state, exactly what they've been doing from what canada is to the truckers. That's they had the ability to do IT a lot easier than what we could have in the united states, I guess, with our laws at this point.

Um so I don't buy me for playing hard ball I looked at and I was like, ah he just guessed that the media I can only imagine how this you know I don't my lap is we got to watch the media this afternoon and see what what they're saying about this. We did not came home. I was like looking, I don't want to work maybe so just going off 也。

Well, you know, let let me tell you what i'm hopeful about them. I am really hopeful that we can start to reverse this administrative state of one thousand pages of rules, becomes ten thousand, becomes seventy thousand, becomes whatever. I heard somebody, I forget who I was, but some organization may be a thinktank anyway, they had added up, maybe the heart of organization said, how many laws or rules acting like laws does the federal government happen? And the answers.

three hundred thousand, three hundred thousand.

all three hundred .

thousand ways .

to get in trouble right you know and um and so that's just is just way past the apposite of that hopefully we can get some rationality back in on this um you know a quick example not to pick on my town but bless their hearts. They put a rule in against tiny homes.

They're like we don't want us, right? But in our town, by the way, could use any help you could get at this stage, right? But somebody decided that was a bad thing because you know the I think IT was a tax decision.

Like you know we can only tax time and they're gona be worthless. So we can only can tax them enough. So not unbaLance are gona cost us, I guess. But i'm over here looking at IT.

Like, look, if Young people can afford starter homes, why would you pass a rule to say we don't want Young people in our town? It's just it's just they didn't think IT all the way through, you know, though that's a kind of rules that just sort to come forward makes sense to somebody. And next thing you know, you have to live under IT.

And I would submit that on my town is a fractally representation of all the towns out there. And we're suffering because of the rules that we've imposed upon ourselves. They're not helpful anymore.

Nobody can even justify them like this rule. How does that make your life Better or my life Better? The .

something that doesn't make sense of our local canny, the canny that I grew up and did the same thing about two years ago. They ban the tiny homes. And I don't understand that, like if you want to live in a tiny home that doesn't even go with the narrative of, you know going grain and reduce your carbon footprint all that because I reduces the carbon footprint.

So why in the world are you trying to stop people from having affordable homes? And I don't understand that anyway whatsoever because they're telling us reduce your carbon footprint. But oh, you can't reduce your carbon footprint. That doesn't make sense at all.

No, IT doesn't. I don't. I have dione memories of because we moved out when I was six.

But i'm pretty sure now that I adult, I can add IT up two bedroom sort of a split levelly thing come down into a living room. And there was a kitchen that was IT bathroom, maybe a thousand squire, maybe. That's what that's the home I grew up in .

for four of us in there, bedroom, a bedroom with with a sibling. A thousand square .

y people would not. Yet been there anymore.

Just my garbage. Did they ban a thousand square for at home in your local munsters? I can't member what the square footage is here locally.

I can't remember one of this off. But you IT was the tiny home designation, which I think is somewhere in the four hundred to five hundred square foot zone. But again, if somebody wants to solo live in that, right? You know, you get a bedroom, you have a kitchen, you get a bathroom.

Why not? Why would you not allow somebody to live in something I don't even understand? But that gets me back to my earlier point, which is I actually pull if I could support something we would do away with income tax and property tax.

I think neither them is is rightful. Neither them comport with the idea of freedom or liberty. I ran from my local government.

You rent from your local government. Everybody who has a property rents IT from the local government. And by which I mean, if you don't pay your taxes, they take IT from you. That's a rental arrangement.

yes. And the warehouse steps, and they be solved for the for the back taxes. And then if you don't deal with IT within one year, then is that one year? I think you have one year to deal with IT and maybe in the second year, you forth the property. I can't remember the details exactly, but you can lose a paid for home because you get into a ban and you don't pay your property taxes.

You let me go further. You will lose your home.

Do you will lose your home? You right? You know, the sand point is cries all of this government money printing to to party like it's nineteen, nine, nine know I do unfortunate. And in my business, in my world, we deal with people who have money that I mean fortunately and unfortunately.

So I do volunteer my time for those people who just don't have money to be able to to work with somebody like us because they're not going to get access unless I volunteer my time, they're not going to get access to somebody that can help them make some tough decisions. And usually what happens is they're dealing with those individuals that are sell on these hat commission products where they invest ten thousand dollars and the person makes thousand dollars off whatever goes in there. So I make sure I spend some time in one of the sadness things for me, especially work into the local food paintings and some of the others as individuals that are in their eighties, they didn't come from a home that told them had to manage money.

They didn't go to a college. I think the schools don't teach anybody how to manage money anymore, but they they just didn't have the knowledge, right? So they end up in a situation where the only thing that they have a so security, but they did fight to th and now to get their home paid for, here they are.

They can go back where so security isn't keeping up with the cost of living there have a high medical expenses because even, you know the medical system is is ripping those who who are unfortunate as well. Yes, IT covers things, but there's still extra calls that, that at up over time. And all they're trying to do is figure out how to keep their homes and keep their properties to cover their a property increases, insurance and their property taxes.

And unfortunate several of them, the only option that they had to build to make an mates to do these reverse mortgage on the property that they shouted have to you. So we're fortunate that is in our eric argument cani the one area noriaga. Um those over sixty five don't pay school taxes, so that reduces that burden a lot.

But still taxes are going up so fast. And in law, these areas um because of poor investments in the past that it's it's crushing those. They are overlooked in our society because they they don't have the ability to generate revenue for most people to be able to pay attention to them.

And and it's it's heartbreaking. That's not what we're supposed to do as a society. That's not what we're supposed to do as a people. And I have not thought hard about how to fix IT, but that's a problem that needs to be to be dealt with. So doing away with property taxes is one way to deal with.

Well, you know I was talking with the gentleman recently was from cooked county, uh, in illinois at chicago. His early property tax in his home is more than the purchase Price of the home when he bought IT in the seventies.

On my godness on .

a early basis, I I forget you pay twenty three grand or something. Now is twenty four grand in property taxes per year, right? It's crazy like you can you can get by with that. But um but beyond that you know this brings suspect to the rule of seventy two.

So we just had this in our town you know that the local school board and these people are notes, you know, they will as soon as you don't give them exactly what they want, which is a five percent increase on a early basis this year, they are asking for four point nine. You know, they throw a hy fit and they cut the most popular after school program. So the parents get all mad, you know, apply pressure, right? They don't talk about the fact that he used to be you.

If this is the growth and students and this is the growth and teachers, this is the growth and administrators, right? So we get a lot of administrators two hundred fifty thousand dollars salaries and like maybe we could just trim. I don't know what would happen if no administrator showed up with kids not learn that day.

I'm not clear what would happen. But you know so they have got there a little thing they are running. But but this is the rule of seventy two at a five percent increase per year. That means that school, but something is going to be twice as large every fourteen years. That's how compounding works, twice as large.

So if you're spending twenty thousand per student, which is a thing that happens now that used to be private tuition poll, public schools are demanding twenty grand a student, right? Nineteen six in our area here, not a fancy area, well, that i'll be forty grand a student and then it'll be eighty grand a few more doubling cycles, right? And and so the question is, well, eventually that just breaks.

Anybody can see that just math. And you're saying it's ready. IT is already breaking for lot of elderly people.

I mean, what do you get? What do you get on social security? Around around three grand a month.

Well, if you're lucky, there's individuals that are out there. There are in the ideas right now. They're only in sixteen, seventeen hundred demand .

that could be property tax one hundred percent if you're that poor die in chicago.

In the minimum, if you that individual in chicago, he purchased that house in one thousand seventy eight and he didn't move, then he shouldn't be charged a higher a praise value at this point. I do believe that that's criminal. That's just another way that the government creeps in, but it's a machine.

They don't they don't really care. And you're right, that's one of the things i've looked down in our local community and my me hard time he is like i'm in the school system, so be quiet like and you know me, I can't be quiet, but I respectful. There's way to many administrators and and there there are a bunch of paper pushers to please the government.

That brings me to a conversation I had today. Pretty interesting. So sit down with the client. And I had the capacity, for whatever reason, Christ bill, to get along with both sides in most cases. So client sits down and then I knew I was coming and i'll i'll say, he here, he IT doesn't matter, looks at me and says, so we're you going to help me move out the country now the trumps elected and I said, I can't member what I said is up along the lines like, well, you won't leave the country and and they were like, not really. I've got too many family and things like that, but i'm really worried that it's going to be a mess.

All of these people that he's bringing in, in their own qualified and I said, I said, really I said, well, I said, let me ask you this, do you agree that change needs to take place? The direction were headed, never like yes. And I said, so you you're concerned that they're not educated in the way that things have been done, but the way that things have been done or leading ss in the wrong direction.

So we not Better off just to pick somebody off the street and put them in that position so that the night educated in the right direction and make a change. And they looked at me for a second and they thought, you know, that's a pretty good point, but i'm still scared to death and I said, yeah, there's a lot of hurdles to overcome. I said, but we've got to make a different decision and you know when that could have go bad.

But I really had not crossed their mind that having somebody with a different set of us and there in a different education, maybe not quite trained to the point that they have to follow the same path, could be Better. And, you know, maybe unfortunate that they are open up, open minded enough to have that conversation. But there's this, there's this belief that you have to have all these administrators who are really good superintendent, are really good secretaries, about all you need in the administrative area of the school system, except for the fact that you've got all these government regulations that you got to push papers forward to fill out and all these measurements to take place.

And if we could get those government regulations, then we could get that cost at the education system. But unfortunately, can be a lot of people lose their jobs in that case too. And we need that cries. We've got to endure that pain to move people in the creative, productive positions instead of paper pushing positions. And just because you're train with some certificate that puts you in the administration of halls of power in the school system doesn't mean that you're serve in the students of the people.

I agree. You know what paul I I just wanted unleash um the the good people of this country to just do what they're onna do right now. And so we saw there's lots of I know out of the new cycle, but I just did this on my signal hour podcasts just came out talking about what's going on on western north Caroline and IT turns out oh there's still five thousand displaced ed families and families doing nothing and all of this stuff.

But and that's not true. He was doing one thing. They're seeking to installed a two hundred and eighty thousand dollar gate to prevent people from using the road that the west Virginia miners magically rebuilt.

When everybody said IT couldn't be done, these guys like ye'll get that done. We work with all the time or minors, right? And they just, they built this road back up to bad cave so the people could at least get back and forth.

It's not pretty up, sure, bumpy. But IT works to the government's role instead of going, wow, we should learn from this little embarrass. We didn't know how to do this. Now, I was put a gate on IT.

Stop people from using IT. No, that is so evil. That's evil, evil instead of going. And hey, you guys just pulled off something.

Come over here and help us because we got to get to these people is we're educated more Better than you. So get out of our way. We're going to shut IT.

None of that makes sense to me. The only word that works is your rock that's evil. Well.

speak IT of of this is I when I know that that, like, i'm just so astonished with them. What people can do is this. So, so this is the blue lagoon here where i've been. You know, it's this beautiful hot tub area in in iceland and is being attacked by this volcano. And it's like, there's all this, there's all this lava ahead in a certain direction. Well, when you know that the people in ratifia figured out how to take the lava and they spread a whole bunch of water on IT, and they hardened IT up in one direction and got IT to go another direction, and they save their tourist direction. Okay.

wo.

So I learned that if you give people, no, well, we'll figure out what they need to do. You get some smart guys and gals on there. They start spray and water on IT, and they start, though, if I cool at this way, they started to bend a little.

You got, there's like people who can put IT on the resume. Now i'm a professional lab. A handler like this is awesome, right? IT didn't require a government to write regulations and books and trading manuals and assess fant penalties and fees with a licensing Operation, you know, in a permit.

They just got out there and said, what needs doing? And they fixed IT that I believe in people. I don't believe in organizations, plumps of people that we call a government to fix up.

I just don't. I'm with you. And at the level of argon, Chris, they need, we need to unleashed the american people. But there are people that drop at school in the eighth grade because they had to take care of their families.

I have three clients that had a eight grade education, and they accumulated a massive amount of wealth because they were humble enough to ask a lot of questions. They didn't really, they didn't still do this. They don't feel educated enough where they they feel smart, but they're brilliant because they ask lot of questions, their vacuous learners and their problem solvers.

So you get these individuals that somebody that graduates with these degrees and get this certificate IT. And hey, you know, you should hire me because i'm from this institution. Look down upon the person that graduated the eighth grade or then they're jealous.

They justify and say what they were lucky they could have done that smart. And and we're missing out on so many people that are a part of this country. One thing about americans is where voters were innovated.

We're creative. And and if you unleash the american people and stop predicting in these monopoles, it's going to be far Better regardless of what the markets do. And quite Frankly, i'd rather have the markets go sideways for twelve years and hope in the middle class come back. And I have small businesses were when I traveled over to alabama, another town.

Hey, there's this great new business that's not a walmart that has these innovative products that I may not be able to find somewhere else and open up the power of the american people and bring back the joy of the middle class instead of come like the hunger games where you've got the capital that so detached from everybody else and they ve got their boot. The small business trying to hold back that innovation to protect their own position because quite Frankly, most of them, in hair of IT, they can learn IT. And and that's the problem that we have right now. I agree.

No, I bet we could pull a lot of people individually sort of my age and and ask him, would you take a big old decline in the stock market if IT meant your kids could start out their investing life from a reasonable valuation? I say yeah do IT I wouldn't even think about IT like yeah yes yep.

But I I got to tell you, paul, these people i'll speak for my generation for the moment um really disappointed you know with the bombers who are just they're just so greedy like like I D and they to keep that's what that's what the federal reserve IT. Can we just be clear about this? They didn't rescue the markets.

They rescued asset holders, whether you held real estate or you held stocks and bonds. That's so they rescued, they bail them out fine. But when you sort of look at that from a sociological standpoint, you find out that was a that's a narrow band that isn't everybody, that's a very narrow band of people of a specific age, right? They basically set this little box.

We're we're going to save if this little box of people, why was IT debated, was disgusted you vote for IT. No, no. And no was just what they did. Yeah, you know yeah well.

there's a belief that there's a trickle down economics and quite Frankly, because there was a period of time where there was a lot of trickle economics, and I know there is some truth to that, but has been distorted at this point because here's the thing you take matter. When I has worked with me for twenty years, Carry has work with me for twenty years, brightly for fifteen million, for twelve.

We're a family, right? So the Better that we do in the business, the Better they do across the board. Know my heads on the top and block if something goes wrong on the one that everybody comes after.

So yes, I have to reserve a little bit larger part of the pie because i'm Carrying that extra rest. That's just part of what happens in business. But there, we make sure that they're very well compensated. And i've seen i've seen so many businesses and business owners that built that business, that had those employees that were just as crucial to that business being built, that were overpaying all their employees when they sold the practice.

And then privates equity or somebody else comes in and you know what? The first thing they do, critics is they got all of the the happy long time foundation employees that that are the most valuable that in that business. So that they can strip the profits out for their own pocket. There was a time where there was integrity when you had a lot of small businesses in our country, I believe that top down, trickle down economics work because because there was the need to take care of those people.

But for whatever reason, we ve moved into a point time in our country now where we're so self serving in in the corporate business model that is, hey, i'm going to buy that business and i'm gonna be efficient, which means i'm going to get all the hard patient employees because of a monopoly, right? I have no much, not much competition because I have access to capital wall street that the person next to my doesn't have. I'm going to cut my services.

Your services is going to be worse. Your product is gona be worse, but man, not profitability is is going to be great. And look, that's the world that I have to swimming because I have to help people grow their money.

But we have a moral problem in our country that i'm hoping will change. And all we have to do, Chris, is get the government regulations out of the way because they're protecting the monopoly, they not protecting the environment for everyone that's protecting the environment. And i'm just picking this number out of air.

There's probably twenty five that are protecting a monopoly and even the banking system. You know, after all, the banks went down in two thousand and eight. They've raised the barrier of entry to start a new local bank to the point that you can do that is just not worth the risk associated.

And now you got a few banks that are making decisions out of, out of the town, near a city hundreds of miles away, the impact your local community. And IT doesn't matter what your reputation is in local community, because a handshake in your character doesn't matter when you go to get alone anymore. What matters is what that central planner that monopolized bank in another city, things should take place in your local area, and we got to get that fixed. I don't know how they fix IT, but I hope they do me too. That was what was .

so frightening about that market rison interview on geo rogan, which was, he talked about, at least in one part of that, that the plan that they told him about the White house was to create this overarching A I control layer with just a few companies in charge of everything interfacing with the government to make sure the right things are done.

And as we learned recently, right things often mean my political opponents are targeted, harassed and processes punishment. You know, drag them down. Not really charged with anything of, you know, but you have to defend yourself.

Very expensive and time and money, you know so so that's yeah no, let's not go that question, but I wasn't t the fundamental thing between people who want freedom and people who want more authority, right? That's the fundamental break that that happened there. I think people just said, you know, i'm done.

I'm tired of the gas lying. I'm tired of being lied to. You know, this was really offensive to me. Just yesterday, I find out that biden, somebody flew his old self to africa, and he pledge to billion dollars to help africa rebuild from floods. And nothing is being done, virtually nothing is being done for our own american citizens in north airliner.

except for building gates to reduce the innovation and access to individuals. right? I was heartbroken over that. I don't understand.

You know, Chris, what that reminds me of is a family where you had this one individual that is probably the worst artist is in the world, right? That goes out, paints this great picture of everybody else, but treats their family like hill at home. And that's what IT is, that there's no caring for the american people.

It's like, oh, let's go make myself look good in in africa. Maybe theyll record me good in their books. I mean, maybe i'm too signal and think in that, but it's absolutely dict ous know. I mean, it's so ridiculous at the the first question that comes my mind is okay. The event tells us you of a of money laundering a program.

So who in africa he pay and off to have the line back into his own pockets like literally, that's all I can think of because we've got good people in north CarOlina and not even what happened in hai and and they're abandoning them. Why do we not spend resources on our own people? Billion dollars.

I can't remember how many? Four hundred and fifty thousand our houses. I can't marry if I was a billion, eight billion, that may not necessarily easy to do you all.

But well, for a billion, that would be just tap in two thousand, two hundred.

roughly yeah two thousand, two thousand, two twenty two, yeah. So I mean, that's a dramatic impact that can be made in that local community. We have to take care of our own people first before because it's their responsibility to take care of them once our families taking care of, yes, we can be generous and step out and take and help another family, but we have to take care of our own people first. And that just makes me so ridiculously angry.

Well, that's the first thing I would do if I was, well, I would do lot of first things. If I was trump, first thing I would do, as I would just have a full blow, federal investigation into election, election practices. Any fraud i've found, I don't care if I was a top person, a dnc.

I don't care, laboratory an I don't care, but i'd become IT in hard and find people who are committing fraud and that would be the end of that long prison sentences, very public trials, make sure everybody sort of understood what they just witnessed. Um stop that. So that would be part one.

But but anything that we can do now. So you know, we've talked about IT before, but I am really impressed with what hobby malay has managed to do in just a little over a year. In argentina, they are going to have eight and half percent GDP growth this year.

The vacation where to shale is on pace now at half a million barrels a year, they're na be an oil exporter. They were an energy whistle wl, you know, importing in published nation that he fired. He just act like half the government agencies just gone on, you know, like, I gotto be honest, I would wake up, and I would have a double fist pump of cheer.

I wake up. Read the newspaper is like, department of energy disbanded. You know, department of education disbanded. Like, just r just get rid of them is a starting point, potentially see what happens, right? yeah.

And my favorite video clip that I saw is when hobby or male goin there and you've got all these, I guess they were magnetic and he's grabbing him, gone, gone. I was like, yes, let's see how this goes. But he said the president, I mean, really, he's a path cutter, so he comes in there and just absolutely up and course, course elon musicians in and buys twitter and just gets the whole place.

And everybody said that he would be impossible. And twitter, ex ex IT should be ex that takes me forever to learn that. But IT is IT is so far so period to anything that I ever has been in the past. It's amazing. And IT keeps getting Better every weekend, every month. You now that should lead the you know give confidence to the trump administration, the dogie council and everybody that there just right the whole system because it's not working for the american people and what is working will clearly rise to the top you know, if they just .

who wake up and they said we're going to a mrt oria on building codes in massachusetts for the next five years. See what happens. You know, what happens s nothing except for building probably that.

Well, if i'm having a hospital that in my interest to make sure that is not built in a shotted way, that is, onna fall down. I don't need codes to tell me that, right? You know, I know what i'm looking at. People, I trust people do what's in their best interest. You know.

they will. If you do IT bad.

then when you try and sell IT, you guess what? You can get a bad Price because somebody he's to have that thing looked at and say not I want by that but anyway, that I I really i'm hoping we can get to that point because you know what, paul, I talk about this a lot in my other other life, which is that we have a math problem built into our overall system of money at this point. Time is gone exponential on the debt.

And you know we're just doing all this stuff. And so there's gonna to be some kind of a reset at some points to be little painful um and it's rooted in this crazy austrian school of economics idea which is that if you live too far beyond your means for period of time, you ve got to live below your means for a little period to type just how IT is and we've live in away behind our means pretending like IT doesn't matter, right? So I will and I know then you have to translate that into actual tactics that people would pursue because what do you do with that information? You know for money systems really that.

Math problem, me, what do you do? right? And yes, it's tRicky, right? It's not even a coin flit for me.

This coin has eight heads in just two tales, right? There's at least in eighty plus percent chance of my mind that that we just try to print our way out of IT because that's what we're we're gonna. No, which means inflation.

And that leaves that minsky moment that we started out. You started not talking about with paul teter Jones. And what's interesting is if you're going to be sure the long into the curve was the one thing that you should be long on the a in the inner and period, which has not been greatness performance since the election.

This is not a recommendation I get to back out of that little bit, but one would be inclined to be long gold on the shorter end if you're going to be short those treasury's on the longer in because one, it's either default rest that he's talking about, right? And gold has no creditor. So IT will maintain that purchasing power if we did have a deflationary environment.

So you don't have to worry about the define on the other side. And if it's inflationary, which i'm assuming that that's what pointing to, that's what the math looks like. It's gonna up being in that gold, silver would be hedge.

And one thing that's interesting, I look I mean, i'm open, I struggle with the crypto currencies. The bitcoin is this IT like it's not been tested. But one thing that is telling us from a long return standpoint with its move and god's long return move where IT is here, the monetary system is changing and we're only gonna exactly how IT changes before too long.

But gold in the crypto, for some, seem to be the area that a lot of individuals are going into to say, hey, I rather own this, the us. Dollars at this point or any other currencies. So we won't know what it's telling us until we had the benefit of hands side. But there's a lot of things bubbling under the surface that leads me to believe that this is appalls and precious metals for a while and that that you know from my opinion, you should talk to advisor, not a recommendation. This is just my opinion for educational purposes that you should seriously consider buying any tips that arise over .

the next six lines agrees with this plays out like um say two thousand nine remembers. So we had the big dip, but then there was this recovery. Then there was a huge dip back into the into the spring.

IT feels a little like, oh, seven to me. I guess this stage, right? You just have this, this climb, this relentless climb.

But if you look underneath and you see the insider selling in the volumes kind of disappearing and drawing up and you know starting IT over, concentrated in a couple couple of big names, you know and all of that, yeah because, you know, I don't want to be just like that ever sleeping al guy but I am watching all this excitement over A I and i'm just like, where's the business case? I use IT. I use, I use A I right? I use IT to help me structure things.

But i'm looking out like, really, what is the business case? And at best I can come up with a neutral business case, which is IT helps the company fire a lot of workers. So that's good for the company, but it's not good for the workers.

It's good for the company.

but I might not be good for the economy, which is still structure around this idea that we all have productive jobs and we go out and because of that were individual economic units and we do things like take up mortgage and houses by cars and things like that. So so i'm still waiting for that thing that says A, I is going to create, bring a new wealth that is then shared liberally .

with .

everybody. Somehow I am figured that out yet. But if you have a you have an idea on that, let me know. I can see how can be spectacularly good for individual companies, but it's that's because it's going to allow them to either do a lot more with less or fire a lot of people.

Well, inherently technologies deflationary. So if IT, this is that good, Chris? And now nobody has a job, right? You get a hand.

You you got five individuals, won't there? You know they own at all, right? That's that's not where we want to be as individuals, but the safe if it's not that great.

But IT does eliminate twenty percent of the workforce out there. Well, that is deflationary. Where are their jobs? gonna?

The american people are are innovative, right? But still, if I was that good across the board, there's there that can take away a lot of innovation. So that is deflationary. So yeah, might be good towards the company's bottom mine.

But if they can sell more, you know, if they still in twenty percent less products because there's twenty percent less people employed, twenty percent less ability to spend money, then that is going to impact the bottom mine in the markets at some point down the road. And then it's gone to compound on itself. This time goes on. So i'm I know that it's useful at shortcuts, several things for me, but it's nowhere near the point that I don't have you. I don't need all the the staff that I have now IT just makes them a little more efficient at their jobs.

So still wait for that killer business case. You know they're spending as if it's that a proven thing, but i'm not i'm not clear it's a business driver here.

This may be more of political, even defense driver at this stage because there's this idea of what's called the digital kenyon, that the first country or entity, the cracks over into some sort of like super A, I will I will always remain so far ahead of its competitors because by the time they've crack that same territory, unity well beyond create a digital canyon that that can be crossed anymore. Um that's the idea. I don't actually know what IT fully means in practice, but will see.

I hate to say this, but there is a book that tells us that there is a point in the future that if you don't agree, that you will not be able to buy, sell, trade or do anything. And that all I can think of is with the computing power of AI, you know, I really could monitor every behavior of every person around the entire globe. So to extend its absolutely terrifying the me.

was this the best selling book by any any chance?

Yes, it's the historical best selling book is out there. I think he is. Yes, of all books sold through history you're given away, IT is the number one, and IT happens to be in the book called revelation, which is actually also, I believe.

has the distinction of being the first book mass produced on the gutenberg press. So a lot of first there.

you know I actually did not know that, Chris, and i'm ashamed to admit that. So that was the first book. Be much for that makes sense though I believe that correct.

I'll looked that back up again just I heard that a long time .

um .

but well.

Yeah I don't well .

you know I don't so IT may be you've seen but for my subscribers of peper spirity, we had this just wonderful conversation. I started up by by um doing a piece on the thing called mouse topia which was a social experiment run with mice where they created a utopia no predators, all the food you could want, all the water cages cleaned, no pressures on the mice, none so predictably they break up until they sort of occupyed the space. I look crowded and then paul turns out they lost their will to live for some reason in population, crashed to zero.

And then somebody else that the site was commenting that they done the same experiment with worms and essence, right that, again, you know, given the choice between taking a path that would take him to the dead, death or a moist of survival, eventually they just choose death, right um and so the ideas that what if um natural law god is programmed into us, the need to struggle, the need to have an edged, the need to be chAllenged in some way, shape or form and that so there even the illustrious lur of aye to me sounds like a this topic because it's basically saying old to worry, you won, have to make decisions anymore. You won't have to remember what you even like. It'll order things for. You would have to remember that you won't like it's basically the promise of the eyes to take away all the chAllenges of life. I'm pretty sure that leads to organisms loading their sense of meaning and purpose, right?

right? I forget .

what was money been high or was IT nexi? He said that. He said, it's easy to trip up socialist.

They say, oh, we're going to create this utopia and I say, great when humans finally get to utopia the last about twenty minutes before they just revolt. Need some drama in their life. They're going to a little sum sum, you know, and and they'll have we'll have to recreate that.

So I actually think that's part of the other attention. I said freedom versus the thornis. M, but there are people who understand that that you build character, you build a good life. Any your relationship with your wife, your partner, your relationship with your kids, what you do is a business person. All of IT is defined by how much you put into IT .

the greatest impacts that i've had my life at the moment, or the greatest lessons that i've learned that have shape me for the Better at the time where the darkest stays that I had my life and I didn't think things could get Better.

And then the other SATA that I look back and I think the lord for taking me through those periods of time, because either I was prepared to build to help somebody walk through their dark day, or I was Better prepared than stronger for something down the road that was coming that couldn't see. And so I do believe that that struggle and gives us meaning the life, right? Like we battled, we overcame, or we even battled in, lost, but we battled.

And that's the most important thing. We strive for a Better future. And I love the optimists create. I used, I don't have, I have a had time to participate, optimistic, be locally, but the one part of their great, not never forget.

We learn from the mistakes of the past, and we press on to the greater achievements of the future, you know, to forget, learn and forget the mistakes, the past, to press on to the guider achievements in the future. And that's what that makes IT so wonderful to live in a place like the united states. And that's what made IT so wonderful to build our country foundation.

Because you didn't have the monopole their boot on the neck of the verge, in the vision where shoulder holding a van. That's what our founders left. But now where we have as a country allowed that same rise to creep back into the system course.

Mark and Jason, you light out that IT was a lot worse than any of us anticipated. The way the d banking thing, I did not realized that IT was that bad. I've known of a few people that have been the bang because a real popular. I had no clue that IT was that problem in our country. And that's evil.

yeah. And and I had a banking person sort of reach out and explain the details of IT and there's a lot of nuance and complexity back there and they do have some real issues they have to struggle with but at the end of IT, I said to her um yeah but the like the F L C C C or or children health defense like like think like companies and entities and just sort of ideology against whatever the farm of people were up to when they're getting the banked.

That has nothing to do with trying to make the world a Better place. You know, that's something else. So so I think that again, by for cade, everything good, evil, I think that that's really, you know, people just got fed up with all the lies, all the gasoline, all the anti sort of human behaviors and Frankly, anti democratic and anti capitalists like anta lot of things basically anti american that just crept too far and now in the process cleaning that up.

And I hope we can do IT quickly and um more like harvie ali, people got upset, beats and potent but got on other lives. I hope that that's about as noisy IT gets when but we do the same thing, and I hope we can get IT done. You know.

I hope so. I am hopeful and i'm excited that we don't have group thing coming into a lot of these positions that are out there. We need a fresh set of ze. We need to face set of individuals to come in. And I can't tell you how many times and i'll pull somebody in that has no investment experience at all, I might look, I want your opinion. Here's why we do what we do.

What am I is? And every now then, I guess, is about seven years ago, I had somebody asked me a question, well, what do you do in that way? And I was like, how would you do IT? And they shared an idea.

And I was like, it's brilliant because you're trained in the industry and sometimes you get these these blinders on and and there's everybody has something offer, Chris, even the most foolish individual has something offer. And that's the problem. We don't respect individuals any more respect or aborigine individuals.

There's this level of pride that we have, especially in the halls of power that I know Better than you. And is that reminds me there's a way that things right to a man and in the end, that leads to that. So i'm hopeful that we're going to get in there shape.

They're going to get in there. The trump administration is going to get in, do what they say they do, roll up their sleeves at what fans need to be fall. I know you on musters not scared of a fight.

And do is right for the american people, and get the government serve in the american people again. And you know, how I know that it'll be working is when we pick up the phone and called soal current and they go, hi, how can I help you? Stead of hello hole, just say, and I ve got to finish this phone call you, yeah sorry, I couldn't help IT well i'm hopeful too.

We got to make IT to january twenty years th at this point time were recording this early december here so um let's hope that that everything just goes along and and we get some fresh people and and we just didn't keep moving um that that's my sincere hope in this holiday season. So with that, thanks everyone for listening, paul. Thanks for your time.

Anybody who wants to talk to paul and or who's amazing team, please go to peak financial investing dot com, fill out the form somebody will be back in touch with you within about forty business hours couple days you could ever one on one with with pol in this team. And it's so worth at such a, such a great thing. So paul, thanks for your time today. And gosh, I yes, we will see you next week.

Yes, see next week. Look forward to work right?

Until then. Fire everybody. Hope you enjoy this and will be back.