China makes its move
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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Alex Dibble and Tom Noonan. While Donald Trump has been focused on Ukraine and how to end its war with Russia, China has made a move.

It's used its biggest political event of the year to woo the US's allies. At the National People's Congress, the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has told the world they don't have to follow what he calls the law of the jungle in what's being seen as a thinly-veiled swipe at Donald Trump's disruptive foreign policy. So does China sense an opportunity? Our guest today is The Times' China correspondent Richard Spencer, who is in Beijing.

Richard, this speech from Wang Yi about small countries not having to be pushed around and, in his words, be subject to the law of the jungle. Does China smell blood in the US's alliances around the world? I think it does, yes. I mean, it's interesting.

The closet messaging, if you like, the quiet messaging was continuously aiming, not even, as you say, so much at America itself as to people who are watching what's happening in Washington and saying, goodness, what is happening?

So there was this message of, you know, we are the reliable partners. You know, we are the calm people. We are the people who stand by the international order. We stand by the United Nations. We stand by multilateral alliances. We stand by our friends. This message came up right from the beginning. The first question, apart from the question

Chinese state media who always get the first question. The first question to a foreign media was to TASS, the Russian agency. And that was a setup to say,

we value our old friendship with Russia, nothing will come between us. And that was a twofold message. One was to America, thinking if you're going to curry favour with Putin with a view to splitting our friendship with Russia, you're onto a loser. But more importantly, it was saying to everyone else, look, we stand by our friends. And that's a very strong message to not only Canada and Mexico,

to Europe, but it's also a message to the global south, as we, and particularly China now calls it, all the countries that are looking as they develop to say, who are our development partners going to be? It's saying, you know, we will be your partner. Don't put your trust in America.

And where does China see those weaknesses? Because it seems from a Western perspective, at least, that surely the democratic countries in Europe and around the world are still going to prefer America under Donald Trump to China under Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party. Oh, you'll be surprised. No, I mean, don't be...

Don't be misled. You know, in Europe, this is a message that is being heard. I mean, not in those states close to Russia that regard China as having really supported Russia in the war in Ukraine, not in the Baltics who see China's role as entirely insidious and see, for example, Taiwan as somehow parallel to their own situation.

But in other countries, and in other countries that need investment in Spain, in Southern Europe, they are thinking, you know, maybe we've been too hard on China. You know, we've put our trust in America, in the Western alliance, and look at us now. Look, you know, how can we rely on America? You know, we're not strong enough to stand on our own.

And then, of course, there are countries like Hungary and Serbia, which are, well, Serbia is not in the EU, but is a candidate to join the EU. And Hungary is already a fully paid up member of the Chinese alliance. It's joined the Bolton Road Initiative. It's doing joint policing initiatives with China. So no, don't be misled. Lots of the world think this Chinese approach is not a stupid approach and not a bad place to look.

And Richard, does China actually want that global leadership role? Because Donald Trump seems to be withdrawing the US from it, seeing it as, you know, a drain on American resources and not in the US's best interests. So do you think China really wants to take on that burden? Yeah, so this is the key point to me. This is the key point. This is where the other boot drops, if you like. And that all depends on how you see the world and how you see security issues.

Now, China, like a lot of the world, sees America as the disruptor, America as the cause of instability. So, you know, they look at the Middle East, for example, and say, who has caused the problems in the Middle East?

You know, they look at the American invasion of Iraq in 2003. They look at the long war in Afghanistan. They look at America's unequivocal support for Israel. Now, the question there is, is that true?

Now, I would question whether that's true. I would say, you know, America has undoubtedly made huge mistakes in the Middle East and indeed in other parts of the world. But I don't think that, I mean, China is clearly not going to take that role. It's saying we don't need that role. If countries are allowed to, you know, encourage to develop under their own steam, they don't need this sort of security architecture, as America puts it, that justifies the

America's 11 aircraft carrier fleets around the world. Now,

You know, that goes back to the very question you raised at the beginning, the law of the jungle. Is America really carrying out the law of the jungle with its hegemonic concerns? You know, in some sense, Donald Trump appears to agree with China on this and saying, yeah, we don't want to get involved in all this. This is more trouble than it's worth. But actually, most of the American establishment, including the Republican Party establishment, historically would say, no, that's not true. You do need...

you know, great powers, whether it's American or someone else to, you know, secure the shipping routes, provide guarantors to countries that feel themselves at threat from their neighbors, whether it's, you know, Europe being a threat from Soviet Union, whether it's Israel at threat from its neighbors that don't like Israel, a threat from Iran,

and so on and so forth. Taiwan, you know, in support against China. You know, so the question which you raised, you know, it's a big question. And, you know, that's where China sees the world differently from America.

And just to go back to a bit earlier in the week, Richard, on Tuesday night, in response to Donald Trump's tariffs on China, the Chinese embassy in Washington said if the U.S. wanted a tariff war, trade war or any other kind of war, China would fight to the end.

Given that one of the main interpretations of Donald Trump's strategy on Ukraine is that he's trying to pivot the US away from Europe, away from Russia, to what he sees as the US's main threat, main opponent over the next 5, 10, 20 years, China, surely a better strategy for Beijing would have been to lay low and not draw attention to itself. So is this tweet going to end up being counterproductive?

That's a good question, right? I mean, I was quite surprised by that tweet, given this mood of let's play it quietly, let's watch America shoot itself in the foot. But I think there is an issue there, which China is pointing out, which is there is this great contradiction in Trumpianism, if you like to call it like that, which is on the one hand, he's saying, you know, we need to get out of Europe so we can concentrate on China.

And on the other hand, he's saying America first. Why are we the world's policeman anyway? Why would we get involved? And you hear amongst Trump's people a very mixed message. Some people are saying, yeah, we have to go and defend Taiwan. We have to defend freedom in the Asia-Pacific region. Let America, let Europe.

Europe and South China, we've all agreed now that they're right to say Europe should be big enough to defend itself against a pretty crunky Russia. But we have to deal with the Pacific region

and the threat from China. But there's also these other people saying, you know, we don't want to be doing that at all. Why should we get involved? People, you know, Taiwan is very worried about this mood of isolation in America. You know, they have very much put themselves under the American security umbrella. And if America isn't going to do that, then that, you know, that's very worrying for Taiwan. So I think China is like sending a little prod

to those pro-isolationists around Trump saying, do you really want to do this? Do you really want to take us on? You know, I mean, how many people would die if China and America went to war all for this one small island that no American is likely ever to visit, let's face it. But we regard as central to our, you know, concerns.

Richard Spencer, The Times' China correspondent. Thank you very much for joining us. Now, many of our episodes at the moment are, of course, focusing on Ukraine and how the peace push and the US's actions are fracturing the world order, and NATO in particular. European security consultant Edward Lucas shared his excellent analysis on Wednesday. So do go back and have a listen to that episode. It's called Is NATO's Article 5 Dead? For

For now, though, that is it from us. Thank you for taking ten minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of the times. See you tomorrow.

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