Europe grapples with fallout from Ukraine-US rift
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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Tom Noonan and Stuart Willey.

Days of back and forth between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky have ruffled feathers, not just in Washington and Kyiv. As the rift between the once strong allies appears to deepen, Zelensky has met with Trump's envoy on Ukraine. But with the post-meeting press conference cancelled at the last minute, there's been no word on how it went. America's other allies, including NATO partners in Europe, are alarmed by the events of the past week.

To help us get into how Europe may respond to all of this, our guest today is Bruno Waterfield, The Times' Brussels correspondent. Bruno, how have European leaders been reacting to this war of words between Trump and Zelensky?

I think the Europeans are dismayed with being understatement and they're shocked. They're horrified and they're particularly horrified at what they see with Trump using Putin's language really to describe

It's very clear that Trump is using this language because Zelensky has spoken back. He's been rude. He's turned down, he's questioned Trump's proposals. And I think the Europeans really feel the pressure because, of course, who's going to stand behind? Who's got Zelensky's back? Have the Europeans? The Europeans are still very dependent on that American security alliance.

Macron, Starmer, who are leading the European push, such as it is for a peacekeeping force or a reassurance force if there is a settlement in Ukraine, will be in Washington next week. Of course, they'll be asking the US for a security guarantee. So it's really revealed, if you like, the holiday from history that Europe has enjoyed since the Cold War under Putin.

America's umbrella without really having to face up to their own responsibility to guarantee their own security in Europe which is

very much about Ukraine too. And I think that's a very, very difficult discussion. And it's not very clear, it's not apparent that the European side, all its divisions and splits is going to be up to the task facing it. Bruno, we've had this polling for Times Radio. It suggests half of UK voters think the country should stand up to Donald Trump and criticise his words and actions.

Starmer and Macron, as you say, both go to Washington next week. They've sort of pushed back. Do you think they'll make a stronger response next week? I think when they meet Starmer, this will be behind closed doors. I think when they meet Trump, people know how to handle him. Trump is not new to the world of the diplomats, certainly not even new to Trump.

Macron, the way people have found in the past still is to be firm, courteous, but not to give any ground. I suspect that will be their approach. They will also know, of course, that within the American right, all old school conservatives are horrified by some of the things Trump has been saying about Ukraine, about

being the aggressor, Zelensky, Zelensky being a dictator. John Bolton, who worked for Trump in his first administration, said they're the most shameful words he's ever heard from an American president. So they know, they know that, you know, Trump has, Trump is alienating some of the more old, traditional old guard of the Republican, uh,

right they will know that he is probably alienating a substantial element of the american military and they've been talked to us uh defense uh cuts um too so in a sense they will feel that they have something behind them a bit of a tailwind behind they will say look you've always told us to do our bit in europe here we are we are going to do our bit we are going to be the backstop for a

a peace settlement if you can get one. So now it's time for you to deliver on your side of the bargain, which is to continue the alliance. Trump has never said he will end the alliance with Europe. They will also have been briefed through NATO channels, but also Five Eyes on what actually happened in Riyadh on the talks led by Rubio with the Russians. And we know some of the stuff that the Russians have been asking for. The Russians have been

effectively asking for the removal of the NATO Article 5 security guarantee to all the Eastern European countries that joined after 1997. Now that, we know the Americans refused. So they will also be able to make the point to Trump, look, you know, the Russians are not reasonable. The Russians have very well known and declared aims in terms of rolling back history

rolling back to what they lost at the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union. I'm sure they will make a point to Trump that a bad peace settlement imposed on Ukraine will only see sober seeds for another war and possibly a more devastating war down the line. And I would suspect they will also say very, very strongly that Europe's security is a matter of

to Europeans. It's not something that can be carved up at a table in Saudi Arabia between two world powers who, to be quite frank, are not what they used to be. Is this something Europe can actually agree to? I mean, going back to the 1997 lines would be a huge change for Eastern Europe in particular. No.

No, I think to me, I mean, and again, it shows, and again, it's very dangerous when we talk about a world, a nuclear power, one of the great powers in the world that is in denial over the question of, particularly of Poland's sovereignty, certainly of the Baltic States. No, I think it would be absolutely impossible for the Europeans to even contemplate

Such an arrangement, such an arrangement to divide, try and re-divide Europe along spheres of influence of America, the United States, and Russia taking over the mantle of what used to be the Soviet Union would be,

Within a very short period of time, one would have thought, create the basis for a new world war in Europe. To try and, I think, deny what has happened since the end of the Cold War is a very, very dangerous denial of reality. I think that the Western powers outside the United States are very, very dangerous.

aware of that. One of the questions which every single European country, including Britain, is very sensitive to is the question of territorial integrity given the history of the 20th century. It's not a question that the Americans have ever been so concentrated on because actually their territory, the territory of the United States, has never been attacked by a foreign power or invaded it.

But for Poland and the Baltics in particular, Bryn, they can remember a very similar carving up between the great powers. That must be pretty jarring for them to consider this even as a possibility.

Yes, and the Romanian's national security advisor has been on television because he got his intelligence briefing talks and said that this would create a prospect of Yalta too when the great powers, including Winston Churchill sadly, sat around the table and condemned Central and Eastern Europe to the Russian sphere of influence, effectively consigning them to tyranny.

for more than a generation. And we all saw the costs of that in 1956, Hungarian uprising, for example. I just don't think anyone could even contemplate that, to try and reverse history in that way. I just don't think it could happen.

So today, Mike Waltz, the White House National Security Advisor, is saying Ukraine should tone down criticism of the U.S. and just sign the minerals deal. Perhaps trying to patch things up, though, Trump's Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, he met with Zelensky today. How difficult would that meeting have been, given everything that's gone on?

I think it would have been a very difficult meeting. It would have been a very difficult meeting for Keith Kellogg, who comes more from, although he's a very early supporter of Trump's, from the military and foreign policy establishment. Kellogg has made it very, very clear publicly in the very recent past that he considers Putin to be the aggressor. I saw Keith Kellogg in Brussels this week, and he said Zelensky was the elected leader

of a sovereign nation. He also said this week that the timing of elections in Ukraine is up to the Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian parliament. So Kellogg, a former general, a decorated Vietnam veteran, is much more sympathetic than the kind of statements we've heard coming out of the White House over the last couple of days. So I would imagine it would have been a very awkward meeting indeed. Now, on the other hand, the US Secretary of the Treasury

Besson's been in Kiev demanding, allegedly giving Ukrainians an hour to sign a treaty that would give America 50% of any rights to rare earths or other minerals in Ukraine. I think it's important for Ukraine or any other country not to get into that kind of bullying. Many Europeans want to live in a world where it's Americans' role to give diktats and fait accompli

and ultimatums to countries in Europe. And Ukraine is a European country. Bruno, thank you. Bruno Waterfield is The Times' Brussels correspondent. In an upcoming episode here of The World in 10, we'll dig into why Donald Trump is so keen to get hold of Ukraine's rare earth minerals. So click follow or subscribe to make sure you don't miss out. That's it from us. Thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. We'll see you tomorrow.

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