Europe plots a path for Ukraine after Trump v Zelensky
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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Alex Dibble and Toby Gillis. Friday's unprecedented row between Donald Trump and J.D. Vance on one side and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on the other appears to have pushed Europe into action immediately.

with more urgency than ever. A meeting of leaders in London aimed at salvaging peace talks left British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer urging them to join a coalition of the willing to do the heavy lifting that will bring the war to an end and ensure an enduring peace.

But what will it take to do so? And is it really possible, with the US and Ukraine's relationship hanging by a thread? Our guest today is The Times' diplomatic editor, Roger Boyes. Roger, Sir Keir Starmer's plans are contingent still on American security guarantees. Are we not actually closer than ever to Donald Trump washing his hands entirely of Ukraine, rather than to him agreeing to those?

Yeah, that's an interesting question. I mean, there are different things you have to take into account. One is how much bluff is involved in all of this. Yes, Zelensky does appear to have been ambushed, but I think he was ambushed for a purpose, which is a performative purpose, really, to demonstrate to Russia that,

that America is not an unflinching, uncritical ally of Ukraine, and that Russia can come to the negotiating table without worrying that they're going to be tripped up with some clever doublespeak. And it's very difficult to see

what red lines Trump is willing to set up in this rather complex situation. The first red line was a mining deal with Ukraine. And when Zelensky expressed public doubts about it, he was basically hustled out of the White House. So one question is, how important is that to America? Is this mining deal...

Just Trump's way of saying, this will be our stake in the future of Ukraine. So, you know, take our word for it. And that, in a way, in a kind of roundabout way, an implicit security guarantee. If that was the intention, Zelensky didn't get it. And actually, most people don't really get it. They think this is Trump as a transactional leader and...

He's looking for the main chance and that's what you have to deal with. But maybe there was something deeper behind it all. Roger, do you think Donald Trump and Vladimir Zelensky's relationship is repairable at all? I mean, what must happen to get to a point where the people of Ukraine have hope for the future with American support in that future? Well, what we do know about Trump is that he thinks Ukraine is Europe's problem.

and therefore that Europe should dig into its pockets and pay for the defense of Ukraine, but also accelerate the path towards a peace deal and attract reconstruction funds, which is where a lot of profits are to be made afterwards, if you look at it from a cynical Trump commercial point of view.

So those are the calculations, but where that leaves Zelensky is not clear. Again, the other possibility is that he actually wants to get rid of Zelensky. And this is perhaps the most shocking thing of all for East European allies of America who have striven hard over decades to get into NATO countries.

and to have the security of NATO and the shield from Russian invasion or intervention. So there's that shock effect that's still there and still lasting. And now it appears to be up to the West European allies, largely, of United States within NATO to...

find a way of rebuilding trust in the alliance itself. So a spat, which seemed to be fueled by vanity and, you know, and why aren't you dressed properly? And, you know, why aren't you more thankful? And all these rather petty issues has suddenly found its way into an existential corner, which is what's NATO alliance for anyway?

You mentioned the US's European allies there. At the moment we're recording, only France has publicly announced it'll take part in the coalition of the willing with the UK, although Sir Keir Starmer hinted that Italy and Canada would also commit. How much of Europe realistically does need to do so, though, to bring this to fruition? Well, it depends really what kind of peace agreement you're going to have and how intensely you're going to police it.

So these are really abstract sums that we're talking about because, you know, Britain has an army of 70,000 men. And when you're talking about a deployment, you have to divide it by three because you need to replace those people after six months and keep another third of that force in reserve.

So you're really stretched. It will really stretch the British army. And if America doesn't supply, let's just say it's not willing to join in this, then you're left with what we might call undernourished armies. The German army, for example, has got 50,000 men. So the idea, a coalition of the willing, it's always been flawed because just because you're willing doesn't mean you're able.

We don't have the men to put on the ground along a 1,500-kilometer border to make sure that the Russians don't do anything untoward. We have no way of protecting Ukraine and not losing our own men. So the solution, although it's not really a solution, but it's a kind of an answer to this, is a French proposal, which is,

an airborne ceasefire and a seaborne ceasefire. So no boots on the ground, but does have an effect. It means you can watch troop movements from above. It's good to control the seawaters around Ukraine, but it's the only idea that there is really at the moment. Nobody wants to put troops there.

So it's a plan without a plan. The truth is, if it's going to work, he's got to have to get everyone on board very fast. And then when he's done that, present the idea to Trump, who then may just say, oh, well, I'm not interested.

That is fascinating because the final line of your piece in the immediate aftermath of Friday's row in the Oval Office did stick with me. You mentioned how the rulebook of diplomacy is being ripped up daily. If Donald Trump can just kibosh ideas, how can Europe or indeed Ukraine plan anything short, medium or long term when the US president's ideas change so easily?

Yes, that's all true. I mean, there's always been or quite frequently been inbuilt tensions in a presidential administration on foreign policy. Under Jimmy Carter, for example, there was Cyrus Vance, the Secretary of State, and Zbigniew Brzezinski, the National Security Advisor. And there were odds constantly about how to do it. And Brzezinski saw Russian threats everywhere. Vance didn't.

And as a result, Carter tried to go down the middle and was left with a complete mishmash of policy. So the Trump second administration is a little bit more focused than the first and doesn't have that inbuilt confusion. But it's moving too fast. And it is dependent on this trademark unpredictability of Trump.

In the old days, it was called the madman theory, which was basically someone like Richard Nixon, for example, saying or letting it be known that he had nothing against bombing Russia or China or whatever, even though he had no intention to do so, but simply to keep the situation alive.

on the edge and to give him negotiating power in different situations. And it could be that Trump is taking an old rule book, if you like, and trying to borrow lessons from this. He's the least intellectual of American presidents that we've had for a long time. And he's surrounded by these people who believe that they're intimately in touch with what the American electorate want.

And they want America to be a power that everybody listens to again. And this is the effect of it. This is the effect of it. The effect is that you say things for effect and not necessarily with a goal in mind. And this is quite a dangerous moment.

OK, Roger Boyes, The Times' diplomatic editor, thank you for joining us. Now, at the heart of a green piece for Ukraine is, of course, the close diplomatic relationships between the key players. For many, the UK is Europe's key to keeping Donald Trump on side. For more on that special relationship, listen to last Thursday's World in 10, where transatlantic security consultant Edward Lucas analyses just how delicate that is.

For now, though, thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. And we'll see you tomorrow. If you haven't noticed, it's winter. And now more than ever, I'm in need of a little treat. That's why I joined First Leaf, a wine club that delivers my favorite types of wine right to my door. Because there's really no better treat than a glass of delicious red, white or rosé. So go ahead and treat yourself to world-class wines from First Leaf.

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