How Russia could test NATO
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Hi guys, it's Hannah from Giggly Squad. With summer on the corner, I wanted to tell you guys how I'm staying comfy and stylish. Lululemon is my secret weapon. There are plenty of copycats out there, but nothing compares to the Lululemon fabrics and fit. I've literally had my pair of Lululemon leggings since college.

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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Laura Cook and Tom Noonan. How could Russia test NATO's resolve? Maybe it'll be with tanks rolling across the border. Or maybe it'll be less obvious than that.

That second, less flashy approach is certainly the view of Germany's head of intelligence. Bruno Kahl is warning that Russia could test NATO by sending soldiers in civilian clothing, known as Little Green Men, to Estonia like they did in Crimea when they annexed the peninsula in 2014. To discuss how likely this is and what would happen next is our guest today, Emily Ferris, a Russia specialist from the Royal United Services Institute in London. Emily?

Just talk us through this example and what Bruno Kahl means when he warns about these little green men in Estonia. Well, this is a very specific example that refers to the annexation of Crimea back in 2014. So what happened at that time was that, I mean, it's often referred to as a bit of a bloodless coup in the sense that it was staged very carefully,

And you didn't see a sort of a mass kind of military gathering and lots of bloodshed. What did happen was the appearance of what they referred to as little green men, but also sometimes they're referred to as polite people. And these were men without specific insignia on their uniforms. And they sort of started to appear around Crimea. And obviously people had their suspicions that they were

linked to the Russian armed forces and they were speaking Russian and people made their inferences. But what that did do was give Russia a sense of what they like to call plausible deniability. It was very easy for them to say, well, actually, this had very little to do with us and that it wasn't something that was kind of state sanctioned. But obviously, of course, it was. So I think what's being referred to here is

is the idea that Russia might consider doing something similar along those lines, where you don't see such a blatant military assault, but you see something, I suppose, a bit more creeping. And what is it about NATO that Russia would be looking to test with something like this?

Obviously, it's a bit speculative at the moment to talk about specifics. But what I would say is, if you were to see a scenario that it's really probing defences, if you're using a small contingency of, I mean, okay, let's call them soldiers for the sake of this, what this is really about is trying to see how NATO responds to things. So I suppose...

a state of high preparedness and anticipation for something like this before it becomes a little green men scenario would probably be a sign of success. I don't, by the

By the way, I think it's particularly likely that Russia would attempt something like this again. You know, the Crimea situation was very unique. But certainly, you know, Russia has significant interest in probing NATO defence systems, trying to see where their weaknesses are both on land, sea and air. You know, Russia's intelligence penetration and intelligence interests in the Baltic states are really significant.

I think that Russia is certainly interested in the Baltic states. I don't really believe that Russia has territorial designs on the Baltic states in the way that it does on places like Ukraine and Belarus. It's just a different way of thinking about the countries. And Russia's foreign policy is quite varied according to which country you're talking about. Why do you think this example from Bruno Kahl is unlikely, Emily?

Well, there's a couple of reasons why. I mean, you know, a Russian land invasions of the Baltic states carries with it significant risks for Russia. The first is obviously, you know, the use of Article 5, the fact that NATO would consider that to be an attack on all. Then there's the sort of practical costs. So if Russia is going to learn anything from the Ukraine war, and I think it is going to, I think the Kremlin is kind of

considering what rearmament looks like and how it's going to account for some of the very serious demographic problems to build up its armed forces again if the casualty rates are to be believed in terms of the sheer numbers.

I think it's going to have to consider whether the next war that it fights, is it going to be such a thing as a sort of clumsy land invasion? Or is it going to have, and this is probably my view, is Russia going to invest more deeply in things like political technologies? So trying to influence...

particularly, say, the Baltic states, Georgia, countries from the former Soviet Union that Russia thinks it's got a sort of privileged sphere of interest in? Will it try to use some of the not insignificant resources that it has to try to push political opinion in those countries towards a pro-Russia stance? There's lots of things that could look like, you know, that could be not necessarily just installing a pro-Russia leader, but making enough parties so that a coalition includes a pro-Russia voice.

or expending significant resources on a media campaign that would try to move, say, public opinion closer to views, say, that chime with Russia. And Russia certainly has the resources and sort of the financing to do that. I can certainly see that that would be a more targeted approach in the next few years.

If not this example then of little green men, what other ways might Russia test NATO? I mean, you've mentioned, as you call them, these political technologies, but what else does NATO need to be watching out for?

Well, there are things that Russia is doing already, which is probing air defences, you know, these sort of close brushes with European airspace. That's to kind of see how quickly jets can scramble in response. So that's a useful piece of information for Russia. There's certainly a lot of activity in terms of maritime, submarine information gathering. So I think information for Russia is very important about the way that NATO powers, armed forces are sort of configured, some of their potential vulnerabilities.

I think a greater degree of attempts to, I suppose, recruit from the civilian population intelligence operators is certainly something to be kept an eye on. But I think that's something that the Baltic states are very alive to. I think that threat is very well understood and it's something that they do take significant measures to counter.

There's, I suppose, the sort of softer power of things. But a lot of the Russian organisations that are linked to the Kremlin that are sort of cultural centres and things have been a little bit restricted from operating because it is well known that they are often sort of a bit of a foil for intelligence activity. But then there's the sort of private business aspect. There's plenty of Russian business interest in the Baltic states. It's another way of Russia sort of pushing infrastructure

and also being able to make a bit of money out of the Baltic states. But if we're focusing just on the Baltic states, I mean, I think that, you know, Russia is...

relatively limited, actually, in what it can do. Because if we assume that there isn't a likely military option, politically, what the Baltic states do tend to do is try to keep these pro-Russia parties out of government. And they've actually quite successfully done that. Those parties' links with United Russia, which is Putin's party, are relatively well known. It's open on the internet. Their views and opinions are not widely held. It doesn't seem like they've got a huge amount of power. It's

So I would say for now, at least, Russia's ability to influence or manipulate the Baltic states into doing something that is, you know, beneficial to Russia for the moment is quite limited. This feels like a very high risk approach by the Kremlin. Do you think Russia is trying to spark a conflict? Is that the point?

So it does seem like Russia is searching for a conflict. I can see that based on the things that they say and the things that they do. I don't necessarily believe that Russia is interested in an all-out war. So I think that Russia has sort of stopped short of things like the nuclear option every time there's been a sort of situation where

according to some of their defence doctrines, that would be grounds for the use of nuclear warfare. They've walked that back. Where will they stop is a really good question, because actually, I don't think anybody understands what Moscow's red lines truly are. They seem to be moving consistently through the war. That's the only thing that has been consistent, as far as I can tell. Their territorial demands have moved. The war aims have been revised down and changed.

What they want from the West is a little bit difficult to understand. It's a little bit nebulous to say that they want sort of respect and acknowledgement. And it's hard to quantify. It's very difficult to understand what it is. And perhaps that's because it's not really clear to the Russians either what they actually want in material terms from us.

So here we have a situation where we're sort of talking past each other. Things are lost in translation and nobody's goals are particularly clear about what we want one from the other. That in and of itself, I think, carries with it a degree of danger and scope for misunderstanding and therefore escalation, perhaps unintentionally.

Emily, thank you. That's Emily Ferris from the think tank RUCI in London. Now, Bruno Karl's warning about Russia testing NATO is not the first time that German officials have stuck their head above the parapet. Germany's new Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has gone so far as to change the German constitution to let him borrow more money specifically to spend on defence.

Last Friday, we spoke to The Times' Berlin correspondent Oliver Moody about how that changes Germany's role in NATO and how it helped Merz when he went to meet Donald Trump last week. The episode is called How Germany's Defence Boost Gives It New Importance. That's it from us. Thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. See you tomorrow.

Hey, this is Josie Santee from the Every Girl Podcast, and this episode is brought to you by Nordstrom.

Summer's here, and Nordstrom has everything you need for your best-dressed season ever. From beach days and weddings to weekend getaways in your everyday wardrobe, discover stylish options under $100 from tons of your favorite brands like Mango, Skims, Princess Polly, and Madewell. It's easy, too, with free shipping and free returns, in-store order pickup, and more.

Shop today in stores online at Nordstrom.com or download the Nordstrom app. Hi guys, it's Hannah from Giggly Squad. With summer on the corner, I wanted to tell you guys how I'm staying comfy and stylish. Lululemon is my secret weapon. There are plenty of copycats out there, but nothing compares to the Lululemon fabrics and fit. I've literally had my pair of Lululemon leggings since college.

And I'm out of college. I know I don't look it, but I am. The quality is next level. I especially love the Lululemon Align Collection. It's made with this weightless, buttery, soft Nulu fabric that feels like next to nothing. It's so soft. Whether you're in Align pants, shorts, a bra, tank, skirt, a dress, you get nonstop flexibility in every direction so you can stretch the summer limits.

Align even wicks sweat. And as a sweaty girl, I love this. You know it's going to be my best friend when I play tennis this summer. Shop the Align collection online at lululemon.com or your nearest Lululemon store.