Ukraine's 'frozen war' dilemma
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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. I'm Toby Gillis, joined today by Laura Cook. It could be a significant week for the Ukraine war.

As well as the continued developments on the battlefield, the 61st annual Munich Security Conference is taking place, beginning on Friday. With Donald Trump planning to end the war quickly, it could be a key moment for top-level diplomatic talks to shape how that might happen.

But if the war ends through negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and neither side comes away happy, history may be warning us that the results could be merely temporary. The Times' World Affairs editor, Catherine Philp, has written in depth about how this could be the latest in a long line of so-called frozen conflicts. Catherine is our guest today. Catherine, let's start with a simple one. What exactly is a frozen conflict?

Well, in essence, a frozen conflict is it's usually when there has been a hot phase of a war, so active combat and that that ceases for one reason or another. It could be through sheer exhaustion of the parties involved. It could be because an armistice has been signed, as was the case in the Korean War.

But then it has not ended up travelling towards a full-blown settlement of that conflict. So North and South Korea signed an armistice that froze the conflict along the front line, along the 38th parallel, and then never got to any agreement. So they remain in a technical position.

state of war. That's probably the most famous current kind of classic frozen conflict. But there are others. For example, Kosovo won its independence through a NATO intervention and effectively defeated the Serb army and became their own state.

But Kosovo has never been recognised by Serbia. So that is also a conflict that is in essence in a frozen state because it has not been resolved. Kosovo is not recognised by its neighbour. And yet another one is actually in Bosnia. Despite an enormous amount of peacemaking and enormous efforts put in by the international community into the Dayton Peace Accords,

It has never been entirely settled by all the parties involved that they are happy with the outcome and happy to leave it as it is. So the threat of a frozen conflict is essentially that they can re-erupt at any moment. So they are not a lasting solution and a lasting peace.

Catherine, is there any possible optimism if Ukraine and Russia were to go this way with Trump at the helm? Is a frozen conflict always a bad outcome? It's not always a bad outcome, no. And sometimes it's the only way that you can prevent the killing going on. And so obviously, you know, South Korea has done pretty well out of its frozen conflict situation.

It had the good fortune... So the war on the Korean Peninsula, the South was backed by the UN. And the UN troops that went there under the banner of the UN were largely American. When the conflict itself stopped its hot phase...

of American troops stayed in South Korea and are there to this day to ensure a peace there. And South Korea has done very well out of that because it went from one of the poorest countries to one of the wealthiest. So that's worked out very well for South Korea. Not so great in North Korea, which has made its own choices and has become a hermit kingdom. So, I mean, it's very much

a case of which side of that 38th parallel were she when the guns fell silent as to whether you think that was a good outcome or not. Do you think Kiev might consider putting itself in the position of a frozen conflict?

The reason it's been talked about in Ukraine is because of that campaign boast Donald Trump made some time ago as he was seeking re-election that he could solve that, that one, that war would never have happened had he been in office, and that two, he could solve it in 24 hours. Now, Lou, that was clearly a campaign boast.

It couldn't be done, but he was, you know, being maximalist in that manner that he likes to. He has now suggested to his now official envoy, Keith Kellogg, that he would like to see a plan to stop the war within 100 days. Now, again, that's a very short time frame. So what the Ukrainians are concerned about is that Donald Trump is not a details man and that he also wants to see this war end.

That that's his primary goal is to sort of get the deal, look like the peacemaker and walk away. He doesn't much care how it happens and how Ukraine comes out of it.

So Ukraine's fear is that it will be forced into an unfavorable negotiation with Vladimir Putin and with Russia. This has happened before. It happened in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and fomented a separatist movement in the Donbass region.

And that rumbled on essentially as a frozen conflict, reigniting very dramatically when Russia launched its full scale invasion in 2022. So this is something that Zelensky has addressed recently and very explicitly. We do not want another frozen conflict. We had one. And look what happened.

It's also been addressed by some of Ukraine's closest allies very explicitly, including Ertila Vondelay and the European Commission president has warned of the danger of a frozen conflict on the European continent and what that would mean for future stability of the entire region.

As you say, Catherine, Crimea is an example. Transnistria is another, of course, and that's also very near to Ukraine. In fact, many of these frozen conflicts are close to Russia's borders. Can that be a coincidence?

It's no accident. It is literally a tool of Russian foreign policy to have these frozen conflicts because essentially Russia has never accepted the loss of the Soviet Union, the states that became independent.

independent with the breakup of the Soviet Union. And it really, it springs from a Russian worldview, which is one of spheres of influence in which Russia maintained. And then this is partly, you know, the West is at fault here too, because it sprang from the Yalta Agreement at the end of World War II, that each of the superpowers, Russia and the US, would maintain these spheres of influence.

And so you see it in places like Georgia, where there was a Russian invasion in 2008. Russia's held on to parts of former Soviet states like Transnistria, the sliver in Moldova. And essentially it's a way of keeping string pulling in countries that they believe should be within their sphere of influence and sort of keeping everyone dancing to their tune.

Some frozen conflicts stay frozen for decades. How long might one between Ukraine and Russia last? I mean, the classic sort of bad ceasefire is one in which the stronger party walks away, rearms, has a rest and comes back to the fight renewed and is able to sort of take time out to replenish

its troops, it's, you know, re-up its weapons and ammunition manufacturing, literally all of that until it's ready to come back. So, yeah, it could buy a few years of peace. The problem is for Ukraine, if it doesn't get security guarantees from someone credible like NATO...

Really, Ukraine would be just simply bracing for Russia to come back and wondering whether this time they would reach Kiev. That was their objective in 2022, and they didn't get there extraordinarily. I was in Kiev when the Russians first invaded, and we were preparing to see them within days, and they didn't get there. So I think that that would be the top concern, obviously.

Ukraine is that if it freezes the conflict along the current front line, does the remaining rump of Ukraine have the wherewithal to continue its own, you know, to function as an independent entity and to be capable of defending itself against another aggression?

OK, Catherine Philp, The Times' world affairs editor, thank you for joining us. Tomorrow, we're likely to return to Ukraine, where, in the absence of any agreement so far, the war is looking increasingly futuristic, with robots, believe it or not, now taking the fight to Russia. That's tomorrow's World in 10 podcast. For now, though, thank you for taking ten minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. See you tomorrow. See you tomorrow.

ACAST powers the world's best podcasts. Here's a show that we recommend. This is Josh Hart from the Knicks. The NBA all-star Jalen Brunson and I created a new video podcast. The Roommates Show, a Playmaker original. You know the vibes here are always immaculate. We're going to discuss our experiences on and off the court. You want to get into it? Is this...

I'll just start with the topics hot. Yeah. I feel like we have to talk about it. And really anything else that comes to mind. Today we have the man, the myth, the legend. And we have an exceptional guest with us today. He is a Emmy Award winner, actor, filmmaker.

He's a formal number one overall pick at two-time Super Bowl MVP. Four-time All-Star, two-time All-NBA. Got the 14th overall pick in the 2015 draft. 10-year pro in his first year on the Knicks. Welcome to the show. Subscribe now for weekly episodes. ACAST helps creators launch, grow, and monetize their podcasts everywhere. ACAST.com