US threatens to ‘move on’ from Ukraine
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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Stuart Willey, joined by Toby Gillis. Just days after signing a natural resources deal with Ukraine, the White House may be stepping back from its role in peace negotiations over the war.

Vice President J.D. Vance says the conflict is not going to end anytime soon, while Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, is warning concrete proposals are needed or the U.S. president will stop dedicating time to the issue. To help us understand the chances of peace without the U.S., with us is Professor Vlad Mihinenko from the University of Oxford. He's originally from the east of Ukraine and has been advising how the country might rebuild after the war.

Vlad, we're hearing these messages from the White House. Vance warning the war will go on. And Rubio saying Russia and Ukraine are still so far apart that Trump may step back from mediation. Why do you think the US is threatening to walk away?

It's quite an intriguing moment. I think none of us know where it's going. But, I mean, you need to be on a signal app, messaging app, chat probably, to get some inside information. I'm not part of that. But it is quite intriguing that effectively what has happened, in my understanding, is that the Americans have given the Russians anything they wanted, and the Russians decided not to take it. And that is probably a massive blunder, you know,

Arrogance, stupidity, greed, all kind of those sins combined in one.

So the United States administration has offered Crimea and Sevastopol to be recognized as the Eurorussian territories. It has offered Russians to de facto partition Ukraine according to the current frontline gains that Russians have got, about 20% of Ukrainian territory. It has offered Russians that Ukraine will not be a member of NATO ever. It has offered the Russians sanctions relief.

It has offered the Russians to give back the frozen assets, that some of it are United States. So in fact, it has given the Russians everything they wanted, really. And then Putin said, no, I want an extra little bit of sherry on the cake. The territories I'd never controlled and I haven't controlled and will take me years to capture. I want them now. And I want Ukrainian troops to retreat from Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. And in that moment, negotiations stopped.

So that is where we stand. So I think that is probably a good moment to reflect. And I presume this is what the American administration now doing, reflecting on what they've offered, how clever that was and what to do now. How seriously will the comments from the American administration be taken in Ukraine? And do you think these threats are directed at Kiev or Moscow or both?

Probably both, as they're trying to pretend they're negotiating. At the same time, I suspect that we wouldn't be seeing any more United States voting with North Korea, Russia, Venezuela and Eritrea in the Security Council, because I think that Chambos is already gone. I would say we should probably treat this as an incredible Ukrainian success.

And once again, President Zelensky has shown he's a big fighter and he can hold the massive punch. He did it in February 2022, and I think this is the second time he managed to hold this punch. He totally changed the terms of the rare earth and critical minerals deals. The United States, it does not resemble anything that what America offered or tried to force Ukraine to sign. And the new agreement is a very different agreement, which is very, you know,

and actually pretty beneficial to Ukraine. They've managed to put idea of American armaments flowing to Ukraine again back to the agenda. We are receiving some feedback

Donald Trump in some ways boasted the minerals deal as a win for him.

Do you think the comments we're seeing from others in the White House are a coincidence coming so soon after the deal was signed? Could Trump be stepping back? Because this is enough. It's the win he wanted. Well, if that is the win that he wanted, he needs then to keep the territory in the American sphere of influence, right, rather than retreat back. Because the further they retreat to the West, the more critical minerals and rare earths they're going to lose. And therefore, you know, it is in Americans' minds

interest to keep the front line at least frozen now and perhaps push it slightly back eastwards if possible. So if there is any interest in Washington, D.C. about this deal being realized in the next 10 years' time, they've got to keep as much of the rare earth and minerals under their control.

Vlad, your research has long focused on the Donbass, where, as you say, many of those resources are found, but also for more than 10 years, one of the most embattled parts of Ukraine. Could the presence of those minerals affect how the Americans might push Ukraine to give up on regaining that territory? Well, we remember that Donald Trump a few months ago mentioned that the Russian-occupied territories are wasteland areas.

and they're just demolition zone. He mentioned that it's similar to what he did in Manhattan, demolishing houses and just bricks and debris. So there is no point of really fighting for it. He's surprised that Russians are fighting because there is no point. Obviously, under those debris, there are some critical minerals and rare earths. Obviously,

it will be potentially more plausible to mine them in a horror zone rather than mine them as you are rebuilding the city. So to some extent, there may be some logic behind this. But it's very difficult to predict what they're trying to do, right? And very predict what Donald Trump is thinking at the moment. Donald Trump suggests it's a wasteland. I've been in the East. It's perhaps not the most beautiful part of the country, but...

How transformative could the deal be for the region if the Russian occupiers depart? The reconstruction and recovery of Ukrainian territories, and especially the ones in eastern Ukraine and Donbass, will take a lot of time and effort. I do not envisage those cities being rebuilt, given that a lot of the functions that those cities served are lost.

It is quite intriguing that the critical minions, the Red Earth deal, mentioned oil and gas, but doesn't mention coal. So they're not interested in coal. And that's, I'm afraid, the biggest asset that Donbass has. And therefore, if you're not trying to recover coal mining, which I hope they won't, you

and you're only trying to get the really peculiar types of elements from underground, then actually you might envisage very different types of urban settlements. The urban geography of the region will change dramatically after the war. Obviously, it has already changed because we have wastelands and wastelands of former urban areas. But I wouldn't advise Ukrainians to rebuild all those cities because there is no really point.

J.D. Vance now says it's up to Russia and Ukraine to come up with a peace deal of some sort. How likely is that without the U.S. being involved? Well...

It depends on how the US will be involved. If the US will not provide Ukrainians with any weapons and will not share the military intelligence and will not share Starlink connections, so if they totally take the Russian side effectively, aiding and abetting the invader, then it will be quite difficult, of course, for Ukraine to hold Ukraine.

not to mention recapturing the territories. And Europeans are quite slow in responding. They're slower than we hope, but there is already some progress, right? 40%, 40 plus percent of Ukrainian weapons are home produced. So that's a plus. 70% of casualties inflicted on Russian occupiers are by drones, which are Ukraine made. So it won't be a total collapse of the front lines if Americans walk away.

And I think it will be quite difficult for them because they haven't got anything to show for the first 100 days, apart from the critical minerals deal, for them to walk away and wash their hands and say, well, this is not our problem. Well, it is the US problem as well. We cannot predict what is going to happen, but I would suspect there is some kind of still pressure for normality from the American political parties. And hence, I can't really see them just walking away totally. Yeah.

You are originally from Donetsk, the area of the country that's... It is a beautiful city, Stuart. It's a beautiful city. Absolutely. It's still occupied by Russia. It's somewhere that's been in some sort of conflict for more than 10 years. How are people there looking at the events of the last week?

We are losing gradually contact with people on the occupied territories, primarily because of the level of repression, kind of Gestapo fear that they've installed. So it's impossible to talk to people over any means of communications now. What we see, of course, is a totally devastated city in a way that men are gone and we have, you know, the gender imbalance is quite huge here. Women are

on the streets, women in the shops, women shopping, women driving, women doing all the jobs. Because, of course, there's been massive depopulation, especially of men fighting age. So that's been a disaster that, you know, decimated the region tremendously. And it's difficult to see how the region will recover from that, from that demographic loss.

Not to mention that, obviously, as you mentioned, the industries, the heavy industries in mining, and primarily 100%, 99% male jobs. So the whole region is quite in a really horrible state. And obviously now they understand that the Russians are not really rebuilding it. Or if they are rebuilding little bits in Mariupol, they are selling it for big cash to foreign settlers, to Russian settlers. They're not giving those flats away.

to Mariupol residents. So there is a kind of a really horrible colonial type of expansion. OK, Vlad, thank you. That is Professor Vlad Mihanyenko from the University of Oxford. We talked with Vlad there on Ukraine's resources deal that's now been signed. To discover more about it, listen back to our episode from last Thursday. It was entitled US-Ukraine Minerals Deal, a Win-Win.

That's it from us. Thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of the times. We'll see you tomorrow.

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