E129: Sam Altman plays chess with regulators, AI's "nuclear" potential, big pharma bundling & more
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I have a little surprise for my business is every boy's been getting incredible agent lation people have been getting incredible feedback on the podcast. IT is a phenomenon as we know, and I thought I was time for us to do performance reviews of each busy. Now I as executive producer, i'm not in a position to do, uh, your performance reviews.

I too need to have a performance review. So I thought I would let the audience do their performance reviews. So we went and were day viewing a new feature today.

At this very moment, it's called a redit performance review, music here, some graphics ready performance reviews. And so we'll start off with you. David freeburg.

this proves why you haven't been successful in life.

so you can try .

to build a successful .

enterprise instead of keeping the judgment to yourself, which is what all performers do. You turn IT over to a bunch of its they're already doing IT. We just collected IT. What the lucidity? Where are you going to get from?

read? Yeah, really. Let's not ruin the bit. Do you think elan does three sixty performance .

reviews read IT read of all things.

you know, many three sixty performance trees i've done in my life. Zero.

of course, and that's why and where you are .

going to be with the candidate feedback that you ve gotten in the last thirty days on redit. But for the first time, and you have to read IT out loud to the class freeburg, gogogo. First, here's your first piece of candidate feedback in your three sixty from the redit in cells. Good free berg, ted aloud.

David freedman g deserves more hate. He and the others have made IT their mission to convince us that reforming social the only way forward to survive. He hides behind this nurse, a political persona, and then goes hard right out of nowhere, that fear mongering about the deficit as an excuse to restructure entitlement programs.

We would see that as the partisan right wing take IT is when freedman g does IT. We're supposed to act like he has no skin in this game. He's just the science guy. No, you on which guy who would rather work your grandparents to death and pay next to five percent tax? Alright.

there is a review very good. I think you took IT well and you don't have to see. Now don't be to just taking .

the counter briefly. I have highlighted multiple times I think we're going to seventy percent tax. But hey, you know yeah the audience has .

been waiting for this. David.

Tax has never taken a piece of feeding. The feedback he has gotten hasn't taken well. So here we go, David.

Here's your performance. Here I do this.

Go at the bit. Come on. It's a little feedback for you. Come on. And i'm going to do this too.

And I haven't seen mine. Oh, nick.

nick, this this is not. These are actual pieces of real feedback. Good, you are. Let IT a that the thing that .

David ask if he wasn't rich, everyone dismissed him as being post stupid and boring. The secret to his wealth is just full Peter tear since college. It's like a turn from one to pretend to be a public intellectual.

can. Okay, so the dictator has never had a three sixty review. He informs us, and I think his staff know for all the people at social capital, you can get in on this by just posting to read IT ince in one to three sixty reviews, that social capital, let's pull month feedback for the quarter.

is the biggest self serving leach. As long as he can make a dollar trade on IT, he will burn anything down to the ground, fuck the consequences to society or anyone else.

This was actually .

a good point.

That's the truth.

But I got to remind.

I haven't seen this. I'm embracing for .

impact your exactly what is from?

Alright, here we go. I got to a be mind. okay? I can't wait for A I to replace check out check cow is the least skilled knowledge worker on the show. I think he has about three shows left before. A I replaces a hosting skills and ability to trick dentist into .

investing in hype.

I be but the .

last .

part.

我 someone.

I do have a lot of dentist friends in the funds, okay, going to pay for a lot of kids then to school.

Great idea. Great idea.

This one for the whole group. This is a group survey. This is our group three, six vote to rename the pocket. The vote is binding. And the podcast, we're a named three .

billions in J, K, L, three kinds smart guys and J K, L, three assets and freer.

It's a pretty .

good survey.

I was.

We can give.

We open sort to the fans and they .

just got really. right. Everybody, welcome to the oil in podcast. We're still here. Episode one, twenty nine all in some and twenty twenty three general mission sold that too many people apply for scholarships. That's on pause and there's a couple of VIP tickets left.

Get a while the hot to search for all and sum IT freebody anything to ed would just go through the grief for all. Quick here. The, no, I get all right. That was IT. yeah.

I mean, just more demand than we predicted. We look for a bigger than you can find one. I think we're excited about rose hall.

It's still, as you pointed out, two and a half times the size of last year. So we want to make sure it's a great quality event. But unfortunately, wait, too many folks want to go. So we had to kind of politic itself. What's my wine budget?

Three hundred dollars per person per night to thousand dollars per VIP prevent.

Thank you OK. I will handle IT from here. So there are .

seven hundred fifty of them. So I think you have seven hundred fifty thousand dollars in one, about ten. Thank you. I mean, I just carefully, I just gave to seven hundred .

and fifty years to buy guys. I like .

an get to work OK. The .

senate had a hearing this week for A I. Sam altman was there as well as gary Marcus, a professor from N. Y, U, that's an over Price college in new york city.

And Christina mongery, the chief privacy and trust officer from IBM, which had watched before anybody else was in the a business. And I think they deprecated IT where they start working on them, which was, quite paradoxically, there were a couple of very interesting moments. Sam claimed the U.

S. Should create a separate agency to oversee A I, I guess isn't camp. He wants the agency to issue licenses to train and use A I models, a little regular to capture there, as we say in the base.

He also claims, and this was interesting, duff telling with ion's C M B C interview with, I think, dave farber, which was very good, that he owns no equity in OpenAI whatsoever and was, quote, doing IT because he, what does IT any thoughts to math? You did say that this would happen two months ago, and here we are two months later. And exactly what you said. What happened is in the process of happening regulation, licensing and regulatory capture.

Sam went a little further than I sketched out a few months ago, which is that he also said that IT may make sense for us to issue licenses for these models to even be compiled, and for these models do actually do the learning. And I thought that that was really interesting, because what IT speaks to is a form of K, Y, C. right?

Know your customer. And again, when you look at markets that can be subject to things like fraud, d and manipulation, right, where you can have a lot of bad actors, banking is the most obvious one. We use things like K, Y, C, to make sure that money flows are happening appropriately in between parties that where the intention is legal. And so I think that that's actually probably the most important new bit of perspective that he is adding as somebody right in middle of IT, which is that you should apply to this agency to get a license to then allie you to compile a model. And I think that that was a really interesting thing.

The other thing that I said, and I said this in my in a tweet just a couple days ago, as i'm really he surprised actually, where this is the first time in modern history that I can remember, where we've invented something, we being silicon value, and the people in silicon valley are the ones that are more circumspect than the folks on wall street or other areas. And if you see, if you gage the sentiment, the hetch funds and family officers right now are just kidding about A I. And he turns out, if you look at the thirty, they're all long in video and A M D. But if you actually look at the other side of the coin, which is the folks in so long to value is actually making IT, the rest of us are like, k, let's crawl before we walk, before we run.

Yeah, let's think about guard rails. Let's be down for here. And so the the big money people are saying, let's place bets. And the people building in are saying, hey, let's be thought ful sad.

which is opposite to what it's always been.

I think, right, we're like a let's let's run with this and what should it's like prove IT to me. Sax, you are a less regulation guy. You are free market monster. I've heard you've been called the you don't believe that we should license this.

What do you think about what you're seeing here? And there is some cynical thoughts about what we just saw happened in terms of people in the lead wanting to maintain their lead by creating red tape. What are you not?

Yeah, of course, I think you know sam just went straight for the ann game here, which is regulatory capture. Normally when a tech exactly goes and testifies at these hearings there in the hot seat and they get grilled and that didn't happen here because you know sam on he brought into the narrative of the senators and he basically conceded all these rest associated with with A I talked about how ChatGPT stm models, if unregulated, could increase online misinformation, bolster cyber er criminals, even threaten confidence in election systems so he basically bought into the centers narrative and like he said, he agreed to create a new agency that would license models and can take licenses away.

He said that he would create safety standards, specific tests and the male has to pass before IT can be deployed. He says he would require independent audits. Who can say the model is or isn't compliance? And by basically buying into their own narrative and agreeing to everything they want, which is to create all these new regulations and a new agency, I think that sam is pretty much guaranteeing that he'll be one of the people who gets to help shape the new agency and and the rules they are going to Operate under and what these independent audits they're going to, how they are going to determine what's in compliance. So he is basically putting a big moat around his own .

income ency here.

And yes, IT is a smart strategy for him. But the question is, do we really need any this stuff? And you know, what you heard of the hearing is that, just like with just about every other tech issue, the centers on the dishy committee didn't exhibit any real understanding of the technology.

And so they all genuinely talked about their own hobbyhorses. So, you know, you heard from center of a black ground. He wants to protect song writers.

Holy wants to stop into conservative bias club. Shah was touting a couple of bills that her name on them once called the G C P. A journalist competition .

to he to take one cent, one derbin hate section two thirty.

That was the hobby horse he was riding. And then center blue ethel was obsessed that someone had published deep fixed of himself. So, you know, all of these different senators had different theories of harm that they were promoting, and they were all basically hammers looking for a nail. They all wanted to regulate this thing, and they didn't really pay much of any attention to the ways that existing laws could already be used, absolutely, to stop any these things.

If you commit a cry with the eye, there are plenty criminal laws.

Every single thing they talked about could be handled through existing law, if come out to be harms at all. Yes, but they want to jump right to creating a new agency and new regulations. And sam, I think, did the, you know expedient thing here, which is basically buying in order.

was a an insider. If this was a chess game, sam got to the mid game. He traded all the pieces and right to the hg game.

Let's just try to check me here. I've got to lead. I got the ten billion for microsoft.

Everybody else get a license and try to catch up freedoms. G, we have traumatic pro regulation licensing, I think, or just being pretty dartmore about there. You got sax being typically a free market monster. Let the laws be what they are. But these senators are going to regulatory capture for where do you, as a sult of science, stand on this very important ation?

I think there is a more important kind of broader set of trends that are worth noting and that the folks doing these hearings and having these conversations are aware of, which implies why they might be saying the things that they are saying. That's not necessarily about regulatory capture. And that is that a lot of these models can be developed and generated to be much smaller.

We're seeing in a model that can effectively run on an iphone. We're seeing a number of open source models that are being published now as a group called muc M L. Last week, they published what looks like a pretty good quality model that has, you know a very large kind of token input, which means you can do a lot with IT, and that model can be downloaded and used by anyone for free, you know, really good open source license that they provided on that model.

And that's really just the tip of and what's going on, which is that these models are very quickly becoming ubiquity, commoditized small and effectively are able to move to and be run on the edge of the network. As a result, that means that it's very hard to see who's using what models, how behind the products and tools of their building. And so if that's the trend, then IT becomes very hard for a regulatory agency to go in and audit every server or every computer or every computer on the network can say, what model are you running?

Is that in approve model? Is that not an approved model? It's almost like having a regulatory agency that has to go in and audit and assess whether a linux upgrade or some sort of you know open source platform that's that's being run on some server is appropriately voted and checked. And so it's it's almost like a false errent.

And so if i'm running one of these companies and i'm trying to, you know, get congress of my bt and get all these regulators of my butt, i'm going to say go ahead and regulators because the truth is there really isn't a great or easy path or ability to do that. And there certainly won't be in five or ten years once these models all move on to the edge of the network and they are all being turned around all the time, every day and there's a great evolution underway. So I actually take A A point of view that it's not just that this is necessarily bad and the chronic is m going on.

I think that the point of view is this is gonna be a near impossible task to try and track and approve L, O, ms and audit servers in a running elements and audit apps and audit what. Behind the tools that everyday people are using. And I wish everyone the best of luck in trying to do so. But that's kind of the joke of the whole thing is like, let's go ahead and paton these congress people on the shoulder and say, you got at the .

right there you have the folks wrong answer from off the sex, right answer freeburg. If you were to look at hugging face, if you know what that is, it's A A basically an open source repository of all of the alms. The cat is out of the bag.

The horses have left the barn. If you look at what i'm showing on the screener, this is the open L. M.

Leader boards kind of buried on hugging face. If you have been to hugging ACE this, we're developers show their work. They share their work, and they kind of compete with each other in a social network, showing all there contributions.

And what they do here is, and this is super fascinating, they have a series of tests that will taken LLM the language model, and they will have a due science questions that would be for great school. They'll do a test of mathematic U. S. history. Computer science accessory .

is a jeep ty test too. I don't know it's on here, but the jeopardy test is really good. It's like straight of the oh.

which actually freeburg was actually his high school jeopardy championship three years in a row. But anyway, on this only report you can see the language models are out facing. What open a eye did? I'm like, close the eyes, what I call IT now, because they're close source.

Close A I embarked have admitted that internal person at barts said the language models here are now outpacing what they're able to do with much more resources. Many hands makes for network. The open source models are gona fit on your phone or the latest, you know, apple silicon. So I think the cats out of the bag, I don't know .

how they said point bolsters my point, is highly in practical to regulate open source software in this way. Also, when you look at that list of things that people are doing on hugging face, there's nothing a ferial about IT yeah and all the harms that were described to already illegal to be prosecuted. You need some of special agency giving IT seal of approval. Again, this is going to replace permissionless innovation, which is what has defined the software are industry and especially open source, with the need to develop some connection's ship and lobbing in washington to go get your project approved. And there's no really good reason for this, except for the fact that the senators on the district committee and all of wasn't really once more control so they can get more donations.

Sax, have a question. Do you think that creating the D, M, V and requiring a driver's license limits the ability for people to learn how .

to drive the d is like the classic example of how government doesn't want to make that your example. I mean, people have to spend .

waiting and photo taken.

I mean, everyone has a little experience with that. No, but IT is highly relevant because you're right. If you create an agency where people have to go get their permission is a licensing scheme, you will be waiting in some line of untold length.

IT won't be like a physical line at the dmv building. This can be a virtual line where you're in some q where there's probably going to be some overwork regulator who doesn't even know how this should to approve your project there. Just get me trying to cover the ask because if the project ends up being something inferior, then they get blamed for IT. So that was going to end up happening.

Let me also highlights something that I think is maybe maybe a little bit mr. stood. But you know an A I model is an algorithm.

So it's a it's a piece of software that takes data in and spits data out. And you know, we have algorithms that are written by humans. We have algorithms that have been, you know, written by machines. These are machine learn models, which is what a lot of what people are calling A I today is effectively extension of an out of.

And so the idea that a particular algorithms m is differentiated from another algorithm is also what makes this very difficult, because these are algorithms that are invited and sit within products and applications that an end user and customer, ultimately users. And I just sent you guys A A link to, you know, the E U. Has been working towards passing .

this A I there a .

couple of weeks ahead of these conversations in the U. S. But I mean, as you read through this A I act and the proposal that is a that put forth IT almost becomes the kind of thing that you say. I just don't know if these folks really understand how the technology works because it's almost as if they are gonna audit IT and have you know an assessment of the risk level of every software application out there and that the tooling and the necessary infrastructure to be able to do that just makes no sense. In the context of open sore software, in the context of an open internet, uh, in the context of how quickly a software and applications and tools evolve and you make tweet to an algorithm, you got to resubmit for authorities.

you make sure the number one job freeburg is going to be to protect jobs. So anything there that in any way in fringes on somebody's ability to be employed in a position, whether it's a artist or writer or developer, they're going to say, you can use these tools. Are they going to try to prove them to try .

to protect jobs? Because that can ask what all you can think that this was seems way of pulling up the latter behind.

of course, one hundred percent, just like, no, absolutely is and it's because no, you you can prove IT. He made open eye, close the eye by making IT not open source.

If you're same, you're smart enough to know how quickly the models are commoditized and how many different models there are that, you know can provide similar degrees of functionalities, as you just pointed out. J, K, L. So I don't think it's about trying to lock in your model. I think it's about recognition the impact ticket of creating some regulatory regime around model auditing. And so you're very so in in that in that world, in that scenario where you have that vision, you have that foresight, do you go to congress and tell them that they're dumb to regulate A I or do you go to congress and you say, great, you should regulate A I, knowing that it's like, hey, yeah, you should go ahead and stop the sun from shining you know like it's just, yes. So basically he's .

telling him to do that because he knows they can't. Therefore, he gets all the points, all the joy points, all the social credit, the items, a virtual signal. But he gets all the credit relationship but IT was washington for saying what they want to here reflecting back to them even though he knows they can't compete with facebooks open model.

which is number one ah there is historical president interesting for companies that are facing congressional to go to congress and say go ahead and regulate us as a way of who preying relief yeah and I think that IT doesn't necessarily mean you're going to get regulated. But it's a rate of kind of creating sum relief and getting everyone to take IT a breather and a side relief and be like, okay, the industries is with us strategy. So the gardez strategy.

he's pulling here.

So I think that's in chest. When you are going to take the queen like anyway, what do you think of his chest?

And I you that's not a strain and chest. So I think IT is a chest move non thesis.

he pulling up the latter sex or no.

I don't think that his number one goal, but I think IT is the result. And so I think the the goal here is I think he's got two pass in front him. When you go to testify like this, you can either resist and they will put you in the hot scene, disagree ler, for a few hours, or you can sort of concede and you buy into their narrative and then you kind of get through the hearing without being grilled.

And so I think on that level, it's preferable just to kind of play ball. And then the other thing is that by playing ball, you get to be part of the insiders club that's going to shape these regulations. And that well, I won't say it's a latter coming up.

I think it's more of a mote where because it's not that the latter r comes up and nobody else can get in, but the regulations are can be a pretty big mote around major and compact who know they qualify for this because going to write these standards. So at the end of the day, if you're someone in sam shoes, you're like, why resist and make myself a target? Or i'll just buy into the narrative and help shape the regulations and it's good for my business.

I like the analysis, gentlemen. This is a .

perfect analysis. Let me ask your question to what is the commercial incentive from your point of view to ask for regulation and to be pro regulation, your pro regulation. Can you just pilot for me at least what you think you know, the the the commercial reason is to do that. You know, how do you benefit from that? Like, not you personally, but generally like words benefit arise.

I think that certain people in a sphere of influence, and I would put us in my category, have to have the intellectual capacity to see beyond ourselves and ask, what's for the greater good. I think buffett is right.

Two weeks ago, he equated AI to nuclear weapons, which is an incredibly powerful technology whose gene you can't put back in the bottle, whose ninety nine point nine percent of use cases are generally quite society positive, but the point one percent of use cases destroys humanity. And so I think you guys are unbelievably naive ve on this topic, and you're letting your ideology fight your common sense. The reality is that there are probably ninety five billion trillion use cases that are incredibly positive, but the one thousand negative use cases are so destructive and they're equally possible. And the reason they're equally possible, and this is where I think there's a lot of intellectual dishonesty here, is we don't even know how transformers work. The best thing that happened when facebook open source lama was also that somebody step fully released all the model weight yeah okay.

So I don't .

think little bit for a what we're talking about you. So so there's the model and there's the weights.

Think about IT as it's a solution to a problem. The looks like a polani equation. Okay, let's take a very simple one, must take my figure in theory, you know x square plus y critical square.

Okay, so if you want to solve an answer to a problem, you have these weights, you have these variables, and you have these weights associated with the slope of a line vehicles and expos be okay. What a computer does with A I is IT figures out what variables are, and IT figures out what the weights are. The answer to identifying images fallest ly turns out to be two x plus seven, where x equals this thing.

Now take that example. And multiplied by five hundred billion parameters and five hundred billion weight. And that is what an A I model essentially gives us to, as an answer to a question. So even when facebook released lama, what they essentially gave us was the equation, but not the weight.

And then what this guy did, I think he was an intern, apparently, or somebody, he just looked the weight so that we immediately knew what the structure of the equation look like. So that's what we're basically solving against. But we don't know how these things work.

We don't really know how transformers work. And so this is my point when I think you guys start right about the overwhelmed majority of the use cases. But there will be people who can inferiour sly, create, have in chaos. And I think you've got to slow the whole .

ship down to prevent those few folks.

Nobody cares. okay? Well, I do. I think .

actually I split the difference here a little bit. I don't think he needs to be an agency licensing. I do think we have to have a commission and we you need to have people being thriftless about those thousand new cases to month because they are going to cause society harm or things that we cannot anticipate.

And the number two for the neo fight with the sixteen hundred rating on chest doc com sacks guard's an announcement to the opponent that the queen is under direct attack emoted. The announcement of checked the warning was customer until the early twenty century. So you do not do the history of jack.

Now you've learned something. You today OK well. Since I played twenty and twenty first centuries.

i'm unaware of that jack and .

franchise Browns got got fly, the good head freeboard.

In the context of what we're talking about, that models are becoming smaller and can be run on the edge. And there's obviously hundreds and thousands of variance of these open source models that have you know, good effect and perhaps compete with some of these these models that you're mentioning that are closed source. How do you regulate that? How do you and then they sit behind an application and they sit behind toward yeah.

I think in order for you to be able to compiled that model to generate that initial instantiation, you're still running IT in a cluster of thousands of gp s .

will pass that.

You can't be pass that or not pass that yet. okay? We don't have five million models. We don't have all kinds of things that solve all kinds of problem.

We don't have an open source available simulation of every single molecule in the world, including all the toxic materials that could destroy humans. We don't have that yet. So before that is created and shunk down to an iphone, I think we need to put some stage gates a to slow people.

I think you need some form of K, Y, C. I think, before you are allowed to run on a massive cluster to generate the model that then you try to shrink, you need to be able to show people that you're not trying to do something absolutely chaotic or having creating that. I don't think that.

that could be as simple as putting your drivers' license in your social security number that working on an instance in a cloud, right IT could be your putting your name on .

your world IT becomes slightly more new ones at that. It's like I think that jack out that's probably the simple thing for A W S G C P and assure to do, which is that if you want to run over a certain number of G P U clusters, you need to put in that information. I think you also need to put in your tax I D number. So I think if you want to run a real high scale model that's so gonna run you tens or hundreds of millions of dollars, I do think there aren't that many people running those things. And I do think it's easy to police doesn't say what are you trying to do here.

So let me just push back on that because most saml published this model. That is, let me I can pull up the the performance charger, nick, maybe you can just find IT on their website with new model they publish to make. They trained this model on open source data that publicly available. And they spent two hundred thousand dollars on a cluster run to build this model and look at how performs, compared to some, the top models that are closed .

source to shade.

For the people who are listening. yes. So for people that are listening, basically this models called MPT7BH， that's the name of the A I model, the L M model that was generated by this group called moza M L.

And they spent two hundred thousand dollars creating this model from scratch. And the data that they trained IT on is all listed here. It's all publicly available data just standalone of the internet. Then they score how well IT performs on its results against other big models out there like lama B G I know, but I don't .

exactly know what the actual problems they're trying to ask you to compare.

right? So but the point is that this model theoretically could then be applied to a different data set once it's been you know, built. And this is I I just want to use your point earlier about toxic chemistry because models were generated and then other data was then used to find to those models and deliver an output.

Hold on a second, like those answers were a specific kinds of questions. If you wanted to all of a sudden ask totally your thorgerd thing of that model, that model would fail. You'd have to go back and you'd have to retrain IT.

That training does cause some amount of money. So if you said to me hate math, I could build you a model trained on the universe of every single molecule in the world. And I could actually give you something that could generate the toxic list of all the molecules and how to make IT for two hundred thousand dollars.

I would be really scared. I don't think that that's possible today. So I don't understand these actual tests, but I don't think it's true that you could take this model in these model weight apply to a different set of data and get useful answers.

But let's let's assume for a minute that you can, in fact, take two hundred .

thousand dollars. Here's my point. I want to tell you what's happening right now, which is that not possible. So we should stop so that then I don't have to have this argument with you in a year from now, which is like, hey, some jack joke. Oh, just created this model now the cats out the bags so let's not do IT yeah and then what's gona happen is like some chaotically seeking organization is going to print one of these materials and released IT into the wild to prove IT.

But here's a point for the audience. We are at a moment in time where this is moving very quickly. And you have very intelligent people here who are very knowledgeable, talking about to the degree to which this is gonna manifest itself, not if IT will manifest.

You are absolutely one hundred percent certain facebook, that somebody will do something very bad in terms of the chemical example as but one, if we're only determining here what level of hardware and what year that will happen to know the saying we know it's gonna happen, whether it's two or ten or you know five years. Let's be thoughtful IT. And I think you this discussion we're having here.

I think is super relevant on a spectrum. It's this is a unique moment where the most knowledge able people across every single political spectrum, persuading for profit, nonprofit democrats, republican right, elon and sam will just use those as the two onic examples to demonstrate are pro regulation. And then the further and further you get away, the less technically a student you are, the more anti regulation and like pro market you are. And all am saying is I think that should also be noted that that's a unique moment that the only other time that that's happened was around nuclear weapons. And you know .

that's when where and I 我 神秘 的话， i think it's politically incorrect. IT have been a right. I think because of what you're saying, just give me say, I think because of what you're saying, everyone on the left and the right, it's become popular to be pro regulation on A I and to say that A I is going to doom the world and it's unpopular.

And I point you on, sam, you want different, but I think I think it's become politically incorrect to stand up and say, you know what, this is a transformative technology for humanity. I don't think that there's a real path to regulation, I think that are totally what are in place that can protect us in other ways with respect to privacy, with respect of fraud, with respect of biological warfare and all the other things that we should worry about. The said pretty clearly.

he doesn't give a shit about what he does to make money or not. He cares about what he thinks. So all i'm saying is that's the guy that's not trying .

to be politically correct. Elan has a very specific concern, which is a he's concerned that were on a path to a digital super intelligence singularity. And if we create the wrong kind of artificial general intelligence that decides that IT doesn't like humans, that is a real rist to the human species.

That's the concern he's expressed. But that's not what the hearing was really about and is not what any these regulation proposals are about. And the reality is another centers know what to do about that.

Even the industry doesn't know what to do about the long term risk of creating an agi. Nobody knows. Nobody knows.

And so so I I actually I disagree with this idea that months or earlier said that there's a thousand use cases here that could destroy the human species. I think there's only one there's only one species level risk, which is A G I, but that's a long term risk. We don't know what to do about IT yet.

I agree. We have conversations or we're talking about today is whether we create some new license regime in washington so that politically connected insights get to control in shape this off for industry, and that's a disaster. I can you give you another details on this?

In one of the chat groups I in there is somebody who just got back from washing. And I want to say who they are. It's not someone who's famous outside the industry, but they're kind of like a tech leader.

And what they said is they just got back from. Capital hill in the White house. And I guess there's like a White house summit on A I you guys know about that.

yeah. So what this person said is that the White house meeting was super depressing. Some smart people were there, to be sure, but the White house and VP s teams were rapidly negative.

No real concern for the opportunity or economic impact, just super negative. Of course. Basically, the mortality was that tech is bad.

We hate social media. This is thought new thing. We have to stop IT. Of course, that basically is their attitude.

They don't understand .

the technology. V, P, specifically. She's now the A, R.

to put comella Harris in charge of this makes no sense. I mean, do you have any background in this? Like IT just shows like a complete utter lack of awareness, wears the Megan Smith or somebody like A C, T O to be put in charge of this member. Megan Smith was C T O under I guess obama like you need somebody with a little more depth of experience .

here like hopefully multiple cades think your protest gulam depending on whose in .

charge one pro thoughtfulness. I'm pro bottlers.

I'm illustrating that really this whole new agency that's being discussed, it's just based on vibes.

You're a double advice.

Five.

the five is the vibe is that a bunch of wasted, don't understand technology and they're afraid of IT. So anything you afraid if you're going to want to control?

These are socialist, David. They are socialists. They hate progress.

They are scare to death that jobs are onna collapse. Their socialists, their union leaders. This is their worst nightmare. Because the actual truth of this technology is thirty percent more efficiency.

And it's very monday, this is the trooper I think that represents have thirty percent more efficiency means google, facebook and many other companies finance, education, they do not add staff every year. They just get thirty percent more efficient every year. And then we see unemployment go way up, and americans are going to have to take service jobs. And White color jobs are gonna refined to, like, a very elite 的 few people who actually do work in the world。 There is absolutely a lot of new companies .

if if humans can become, if knowledge workers can become thirty percent more productive, there will be a lot of new companies. And the biggest shortages can quoters, right?

And we're going to have a limited number of now they're all going to go.

It's unlimited. But yes, it's a good thing if you give them superpowers. We talked about this before. So I think it's too soon to be concluding that we need to stop job displacement that has been been occurred yet.

I'm not saying it's actually onna happen. I do agree there will be more startup PS. I'm seeing IT already.

I just think that's what they fear, that their fear is, and that's the fear of the E. U. The E. U. Is gonna protectionism, oni's protect pro workers.

Unions are going be affected because these are not blue .

color jobs are talking about. These are, there's my color unions that all the media companies created unions .

and that the mea s that's not you're .

trying to start text.

Sure, they're trying to start them. But when we think of unionize workers, you're talking about factory workers and these people are not affected.

Okay, with that, this is been an incredible debate. This is why you turn into the pod. A lot of things can be true.

At the same time, I really think the analogy of the the atam bomb is really interesting, because what you want is scared about with general artificial intelligence is nuclear holic. The whole planet blows up. Between those two things are things like magazine and hero sha, or a dirty bomb, and many other possibilities with clear power. You know, focus, you exit.

So let OA not yet right.

And, you know, the question is, IT is a three mile island? Is A A fluky ma? Is a nag si? Are those things probable? And I think we are all looking at the same. There will be something bad that will have there will be the equivalent .

GPT strings together. And these large language miles string together words in really interesting ways. And they give computers the ability to have a natural language interface that is so far from A G I, I think A A component. Hold on, I think it's a obviously the ability to understand language and communicate in a natural way is a component of a future agi by by itself. These are models for strain together in which .

auto GPT with these things, go out and pursue things without any interference.

I would be the first one to say that if you wanted to scope models to be able to just do human language back in fourth, on the broad open internet, you know there's probably a form, David, where these ChatGPT products can exist. I don't I think that those are quite bening, I agree with you. But I think what Jason is saying is that every week your you're taking a leap forward and already with other GPT, you're talking about code that runs in the background without supervision. It's not a human interface that's like, hey, show me how to color my cookies Green for same Patty day .

is a long trip to italy yeah.

it's not doing that. So I just think that there's there's a place well beyond what you're talking about. And I think you're minimizing the problem a little bit by just kind of saying the whole classic A I is just ChatGPT and asking kid, asking you to help IT with its home.

This example, I hate to say that out loud, but somebody could say here is the history of financial crimes that were committed. And other hacks, please, with their own model on their own server, say, please come up with other ideas for hacks. B, as creative as possible and still as much money as possible, and put that in an auto GPT, David, and study all hacks that occur in the history of hacking. And I could just create super cast around the world.

And you can, story is going to regret buying into this narrative because the members of issue committee doing the same playbook, they ran back in two thousand and sixteen after that election, they, in all these hearings on disinformation, claiming that social networks been used to have the election.

That was all a funny narrative.

Hold on.

that they got, they got comply to buy.

They they got all these text OS to buy into that phony narrative. why? Because it's a lot easier for the texas OS just to agree and tell the centers what they want to hear to get them off their backs.

And then what do that lead to a whole censorship industrial complex. So we're going to do the same thing here. We're going to buy into these phony here to get the centers off our backs. S, and it's going to create this giant AI industrial complex that's going to slow down real innovation and be a burn on entrepreneurs. Lighting.

round lighting. And I gotta move on three more topics I want to hit with, keep, if I to be evil, more evil. yeah.

what? What does that call them? evil? Uh, comic by .

character. A super value.

a super violent.

I, me. And even more votes of super veller continue.

I will take every single virus patch that's been developed and publicized, learn on them and then find the next year they .

exploit on a home bunch idea. Worry about shing idea.

an intellectual leap. I mean.

you have to be a dollar obvious. Okay, let's move on. Another great debate.

Elon hired a CEO for twitter, then the yaka reno and hope in pronounce in that correct was the head of that sells at nbc universal. She's a legend in the advertising business. SHE went to turn for fifteen years.

Before that he is a worker. Aholic is what he says. She's going to take over everything but product in C.

T. O. He wants gna stick with that. SHE seems to be very moderate and SHE follows people on the left or right. People are starting to, after assiniboia ying to figure out her .

politics that .

he was involved the world world economic forum, which anybody business basically does. But you take sacks on this choice for C E. O. And what this means just broadly for the next six months because we're sitting here at six months, almost exactly since elon took over. Obvious ly and I were involved in of one, but but not much check for that.

What do you think the next six months holds? And what do you think Carol's gonna obviously impressed in this for this with you? don't. When at a basic list.

I think this choice makes sense on this level. Twitter's business smal is advertising. Elon does not like selling advertising.

She's really good at selling advertising. So he's chosen a CEO to work with who's highly commentary to him in their skill sets and interest. And I think that makes sense.

I think there is a lot of logic in that. What elan lights doing is the technology and product side of the business. He actually doesn't really like the less called the standard business chores and especially related to, like he said, advertising. And he looks off that stuff like off adverse.

right?

So I think the choice makes something that level. Now incidentally, you're right. Her hiring would LED to attack on both the left and the right.

The right, you know, pointed out her views on covered and vaccines and her work with the W. E. F. And on the left, I mean, the attack is that she's following lives, a tiktok, which does not allowed to do.

Apparently a follow is not an endorsement.

If you're just following lives a tiktok, they want to say you .

are some crazy right way or now. But he also follows dave sex. So that does mean that she's pretty, that that is a signal. But the truth is, if you sx crame from around here or to off me to if you pick somebody that both sides just like you are trying to take apart, you probably pick the right person. Yeah.

here's what I think. Okay, go home. We're not gonna how good he is for six to nine months, but here's what I took a lot of joy out of.

Here's a guy who gets attacked for all kinds of things now, right? He is an anti I M. I, apparently. And then he had to be like, i'm very process. He's a guy that all the sudden people think is a concurrent y theory.

He's a guy that think now on the raging right, all these things that are just like inaccuracies, basically firebombs thrown by the left. But here's what I think is the most interesting thing for a guy that theoretically ally supposed to be a troll and everything else, he has a female chairman in a tesla, a female C E. O at twitter and a female president at SpaceX .

course is a great insight. It's the same insight. I think a lot of these virtue .

signalling nutrix on the lab, virtue signalling mids their .

own the text and you know like their and giving you know the CEO of a star box a hot time when .

he doubled the pay of the minimum wage, gave. Mids this fucking in needs.

and I paid for the coach tuition. What gives you the right at starbucks to pay for coalition .

and double the minimum wage? That isn't so great because you can picture them when I say that these are these s 4 typing on their keyboards， virtue signaling nonsense.

sex wrapping IT up. yeah. Look, like you said, iran has worked extremely well with win shaw, who's a present SpaceX for a long time.

And I think that relationship shows the way to make IT work here at twitter, which is they have a very commination skill set. I think minsheng is like when focuses on the business side in the sale side of the Operation, elon focuses on product and technology. SHE lets elon b. elon. I think if Linda tries to rain elon in, tell him not to tweet or tries to metal in the free speech aspects of the business, which the whole reason he bought twitter.

which yeah .

that's right. That's when they will fall apart so my advice would be that long B E on, you know, he bought this company to make IT a free speech platform. Don't mess with that. And I think he could work great.

And a free speech platform IT is when you are saying anything about cove IT. And I really don't even want to say here because I don't want to even say the work code of vaccine means that this could be get attacked by youtube and B, D, you know, all the algorithm could could d, um I don't know what they call IT decay this and we don't show up and people don't see us because we just set the work of IT mean, sorry, built into these algorithms ability by speaking of absurd, lina khan, who has been the least effect F T C chair, I think started out pretty promising with some interesting ideas. She's now moved to block of major farm at om.

And december engine agreed to acquire double in based horizon, reputed for twenty seven twenty billion. This is the largest farmer deal announced in twenty two F T C S flaws and junction that would prevent the offer from closing. The reasoning is the deal would allow to entrench the monopoly positions of horizon's eye and gout drugs.

The agency said that those treatments don't face any competition today, and then m. Gen would have a strong incentive to prevent any potential rivals from interesting similar drugs. Chaff, the pharmaceutical industry is a little bit different .

than the tech industry. Insanity.

explain why. And then sex will go to you on the gout stuff because I know that personal impact you good you.

I think that this is a little like scientifically, a little IT, to be honest, impact. The thing is that you want drugs that can get to market quickly, but at the same time, you want drugs to be safe and you want drugs to be effective. And I think that the F.

D. A. Has a pretty reasonable process. And one of the direct by products of that process is that if you have a large indication that you're going after, say, diabetes, you have to do an enormous amount of work.

IT has to be run on effectively, thousands of people. You have to stratify by age. You have to stratify by gender. You have to stratify by race. You have to do IT across different geography, right? The bar is hide, but the reason the bar is I, is that if you do get approval, these all of a sudden become these block poster, ten, twenty, thirty billion dollar drugs, okay? And they improve people's lives and they allow people to live, is set at sea.

What has happened in the last ten or fifteen years because of wall streets influence inside of the farmer companies, is that what farmer has done a very good job of doing is actually pushing off a lot of this very risky R N. D. To Young, early stage biotech companies.

And they typically do the first part of the work they get through a phase one. They even may built a sometimes ghost and start a face to trial to a trial. And then they typically can get sold to farmers. And these are like multibillion dollar transactions.

And the reason is that the private markets just don't have the money to support the risk for these companies to be able to do all the way through a face three clinical trial because IT would cost, in some cases, five, six, seven, eight billion dollars. You've never heard of a tech company raising that much money. Accept in a few rare in far in in biotech ages doesn't happen.

So you need the m ini machine to be able to incentivize these Young companies to even get started in the first place. Otherwise what literally happens is you have a whole host of diseases that just digne, okay. And instead, what happens is a Younger company can only raise money to go after smaller diseases, which have smaller populations, smaller revenue potential, smaller costs because the trial infrastructure is just less.

So if you don't want industry to be in this negative loop where you only work on the small diseases and you actually going tackle the big ones, you need to allow these kinds of transactions happen the lasting, and i'll say is that even when these big transactions happen half the time, they turned out to still not work, there is still huge risk. So don't get caught up in the dollar size, have to understand the phase is in. And the best example of this is the biggest outcome in in biotech private investing in silicon valley. I was the thing called stem centric, and that thing was a ten billion dollar that, right? But IT allowed all these other companies started after seven centric got bought for ten .

million freeburg. I want to get your take on this, especially in light of maybe something people don't understand, which is that the amount of time you get to actually exclusively a monodist a drug because my understanding, you crack me from wrong year twenty year pattern. It's from the date you file IT, but then you're working towards getting the drug approved by the fda. So by the time the fda proves the drug this twenty year pat window, how many years do you actually have exclusively to monitise that drug? And then your wider thoughts on this?

F T. A, yeah. I like to answer that question right now because I do wanna a push back on the point. I am generally pretty negative on a lot of the comments.

Lean a comment and her positioning and obviously you don't know, we talked about on the show, but I read the F T C A filing 而且 federal cord。 And if you read the filing, let me just start the company that m gentry to bites called horizon thai utes, which is the company has to about four billion in revenue a year, about a billion to a billion and a half and Better. So it's a it's a business that's got a portfolio orphant drugs, meaning drugs that treat orphant conditions that aren't very big blockbusters in the actual done context.

And so it's it's a nice portfolio of cash generating drugs. And buying the business gives them real revenue really, but a and helps bolster a portfolio that you know is aging. And I think that's a big part of the strategic driver for M G.

To make this massive twenty eight billion dollar acquisition, the ftc is claim in the filing, which I actually read and and I was like, this is actually a pretty good claim. Is that the way that engine set the Prices for the pharmacy al drugs is they go to the insurance companies, the payers and the health systems and they negotiate drug pricing. And they often do both multi product deals.

So they'll say, hey, will give you access product at this Price point, but we need you to pay this Price point for this product. And over time, that drives Price inflation. IT drives costs up and IT also makes IT difficult for new competitors to emerge because they tell the insurance company you have to pick our drug over other drugs in order to get this discount Price.

And so it's a big part of their negotiating strategy. Video insurance companies. So the F, T, C, S. Claim is that by giving mine is a large portfolio of drugs that they're buying from horizon, it's gone to give them more negotiating leverage and the ability to do more of this blocking that they do with insurance companies and other players in the drug system.

So they're trying to prevent pharmacy ticals drug Price inflation and they are trying to increase competition in their lawsuit. So I felt like I was a fairly kind of compelling case on the the lawyer on anti trust and monopoly practices in the sherman act. But this was not let me just say, this was not an early stage biotech risky deal that they are trying to block a mature company with four billion and revenue a billion. But I understand .

and I read two but two comments IT is because the people that traffic and these stocks are the same ones that fund these early stage biotech companies. And I talk to a bunch of them, and they're like, if these guys block this kind of deal, we're gonna get out of this game entirely.

So just from the horse's mouth, what i'm telling is you're going to see a pl come over the early stage venture financing landscape because a lot of these guys that are cross over investors that owned a lot of these public biotech talks that also fund the private stocks will change the risk posture if they can't make money. That just the nature of and the second thing is linkin did something really good about what you're talking about this week, actually, which is he actually when after the P. B S.

And if you really care about drug inflation and you follow the dollars, the real culprits around this are the 2 macy benefit managers， and he actually launched a big investigation into them. But this is what speaks to the two different approaches. IT seems that, unfortunately for the ftc, every merger just gets contested for the sake of IT being contested.

Because I think that if you wanted to actually stop Price inflation, there are totally different mechanisms because why didn't you just sue all the P. P. S, while there is no merger to be done, but you can investigate and then you could regulate.

And I think that that's probably a more effective way. And the fact that he targeted the P P M says that somebody in their actually understands where the Price inflation is coming from. But I don't think something like an M G horizon, because what I think will happen is all the folks, well, then just basically say, well, men, if, if, if these kinds of things can get bot and why my funding these other Younger things?

Yes, we're just not seen a lot of the Younger self get blocked. I don't think we ve seen any attempted blocking speculative portfolio acquisition or speculative company acquisition.

So I think these guys are getting caught up in the dollar number. yeah. So I think the problem is they see twenty eight billion there like we need to stop IT. You know.

it's amazing. I hold to wrap on this cause it's it's a good discussion, but I think we have to keep moving here. Because I took the P, D, F that you shared, and I put IT into ChatGPT now.

And you don't need to upload the P, D, F anymore. You can just say, summarized this and put the link. And he did IT instantly.

And I just are using .

the browsing plug. I just knows not the browsing plug in the GPT three point five model. I don't knew I could do that.

That's new in the .

background yeah or .

just pulling anyway. 哇哦。

remember last week, we said that they had to build browsing into the actual .

product like bar, right? Others SE the eye. The eyes is on .

the top of their game. P is Ailing, right?

They had to test the APP.

I was on the test. No.

no, no. They just launched the up they did. Oh, that's game over, man. If this thing is .

in an approach that's gonna of users and it's pretty, yes.

you have to actually compare its summary with ChatGPT summary.

Tell us which ones Better, right? This is some interesting news here. Know we? Speaking of platform shifts.

do I get to give my view on the lan?

Oh, well, yes, I first, I don't. I didn't want this was getting a little, was getting a little personal here, David. I did. I didn't want to trigger you.

I know you ve been struggling with the gout because of your lifestyle choices, the alcohol, the, the flag, a everything, but not if you've lost a lot way to give you a lot of credit. Tell us, what do you think about the bungling we're seeing here? Because IT does seem microsoft .

with the Operating system very similar. And what I said in the context of tech is that we should focus on the anti competitive tactics and stop those rather than blocking all merges. And I think the same thing is happening now on the farmers space. If bungling is the problem, focus on bundling. The problem when you just block ma is that you deny early investors one of the biggest ways that they can make a positive outcome.

And what's the downstream effect of that?

Yeah, exactly. Look, IT is hard enough to make money as either farmer investor or as a VC that there's only two good outcomes, right? There's IPO, there's ma. Everything else basically goes everything else is a zero goes bankrupt. So if you take ema off the table, you really suppress the already chAllenge returns of venture ital.

Yeah well, sad. Well said.

And you're right. You mentioned earlier that we were willing to give lennon ic chance. We thought that some of our ideas really interesting because I think there are these huge tech companies that do need to be regulated.

These speak tech man also basically that you have the mobile Operating system to Operate with apple and google, you've got amazon and you ve got microsoft. And there is a huge risk of those companies preferring their own applications over doing stream applications or using these bubbling tactics. Yes, if you don't put some limits around that, that creates, I think, in a healthy technical system.

This is the insight, and I think it's exactly correct acx for lina on initial sten to the pod. Helena, you want to go after tactics, not acquisitions. So if somebody buy something and they lower Prices and increases consumer choice, that's great.

If IT encourages more people to invest more money into innovation, that's great. But if the tactics are we're going to bundle these drugs together to some number of them artificially higher, reduce choice where we're onna bundle features into the, you know sweet of products. And we do anti competitor of have to look at the tactics on the field or people cheating and are they using the monopoly ly power to force to use their absence.

Just make apple have a second APP store. That's all we're asking you to do. There should be an APP store on IOS that doesn't charge any fees or charges one percent fees break the monopoly only .

up store sex is so right. Perfectly said SHE actually did issue compulsory orders to the P. B. M.

So to your point, acts, the ftc has been worried that what free brake said had has been happening. But the real sort of middlemen manipulator in this market are the pharmacy benefit managers. And so this week, SHE actually issued compulsory orders to the P, P, S.

And said, turn over all your business records to me. I'm going to look into them. That makes IT on a sense. But then on the same hand, it's like you see merger and you're like, no, I can happen IT just doesn't speak to a knowledge of the market we should have .

lean on and you listen to the part for the back channel. Just come on the pod as you would be a good guess, right? We have a good conversation.

uo. invite. Nicky hill is coming on the pod. By the way, you have homework .

to do for the summit, which is seeking Donald trump to come to the summit.

OK, huge love. J love in great part. OK cus OK not as good as a practice class. Okay, great. You.

your minister, are unbelievable. How did you practice that? I did. I did a little .

bit only because I like to drop people and trigger them. I'm gna really die. My trump in coming weeks are, here we go. Apple's long anticipated A R headset that stands for augmented reality, which means VR, you can see the real world.

You're just in in a virtual world, A R, but you put digital assets on the real world so you can see what's happening the real world. But you can put graphics all around. That's expected to be revealed as early as june.

The projective causes gone to be around three thousand dollars in one ship into the fall. This is a break from apple way of releasing products, which is to way to its perfect and to wait until all consumers can afford IT. This is a different approach.

You're going to give this out to developers, girly and tim cook is supposedly pushing this. There was another group of people inside of apple who did not want to release such more, but there are some sort of external battery pack. IT seems like a bit of a Frank in product Frankenstein of project here that you, perhaps the jobs wouldn't have wanted to release, but he needs to get IT out, I think, because oculus is making so much progress.

The killer APP supposedly is a face time like life chat experience that seems interesting, but they look like si ogles your sorts to math on this as the next compute platform. If they can get IT to work, would you wear these? Would they have to be proud of? What's the story here? No, no.

Does this seem like a weird conversation?

Because none of us.

So what that's just like commenting on one guys five letter, five years, twice.

Palmer knows. I mean, almer invented oculus.

great. But what you talking, we have nothing .

to say about the form. A good question here. Do you believe this is gone to be a meaningful compute platform in the coming years? Because apple is so good at product?

How do we know if we see we get to see .

I think it's facebook.

Of course, there are of course, they're good a product. Let's let's see the product though, like now I find sex.

what are you are that I think it's a good thing that they're launching this. Like you said, IT is a deviation for they Normally done. They Normally don't release a product unless they believe the entire world can use IT. So their approach has been only to release mass, mass market products and have a very small portfolio, those products.

But when those products work there, you know billion user home runs, this obviously can be at at three thousand our Price point and also seems like it's a little bit of a early prototypes for the batteries are like in a Fanny pack around your waste and there's a waste to go around on this. But I give credit for launching, but is probably going be more than an early prototype so they could start iterating on IT. I mean, the reality is the apple watch, the first version kind of socked and first five versions, yeah, now they're alone.

That's pretty good, I think. So look, I think this a good new platform. They get knocked for not innovative enough.

I think good. Let them try something new. I think this would be good for matter to have some competition.

Yeah.

it's great with having two major players in the race. Maybe IT actually speeds up the innovation.

And may we get somewhere and you are here?

I mean, I think they should have done something in cars. I like they .

do in cars. If you were going to talk about the cars, what would you be? Tell me what you think would be the right approach.

You going to do the facebook phone that could change the entire destiny of facebook. They should have, ought to something. They could have the chance for four, five billion down. They could have outed for ten billion, billion to fifty six out. What do you think the car?

Now they could, about a hundred.

And I, about a hundred billion. Tim cook, famous, he wouldn't take the meeting you on, said he wouldn't.

Maybe they missed the opportunity there, but I do think the n game with the A R head settle glasses, right? yes. Or you get the screens and you get the terminator mode. And in kind, is that? What is that?

These are just glasses.

okay? You acting like they were like fancy technologies.

Size glasses is what you're talking about.

Yeah, you have like a low camera built in an and some construction with A I then I gets really interesting. So that's the n game here.

I think give the audience an example of what this combination of A I plus A R could .

do when you're walk around, you could lay her on intelligence about the world. You meet with somebody, and I can remind you of their name and the last time you met with them, and give you a summary, what you talked about, what action items there are. You could be walking in the city.

and I could tell you, IT knows you like peking ducks. I can show you, hey, there's a peking ducks place over. Hear some reviews. IT just knows you .

and customers world, what about for people that do the same routine percent of the time? How does I can .

help you that I could tell you your steps every day, tell you incoming messages .

so you don't .

have to take your family .

five thousand dollars? No, but you would spend people.

And four meetings are not in advance where people are coming up to me. And i've met him like once a year before, like IT would be really helpful to .

kind of terminology st though the terminated mode for you to be able to be present with your family and friends, but be playing chess with Peter T O, on those glasses that your dream come true. You and Peter in a playing chess all day long, drop the picture, sacked beating Peter till. I watched the clip from the early all in episodes when we discuss you beating Peter till.

What a great moment IT was for. By a listen, let's wrap up with this gala survey. The number of americans who say it's a good time to buy a house has never been lower.

Twenty one percent say it's a good time to buy a house down nine percent from the prior low of a year, prior twenty, twenty two, fifty percent of mark consistently. I thought I was a good time to buy a significantly fewer expect local housing Prices to increase in the year. Hey, sex, is this like a predictive of a bottom and pure capital ation? And then that means maybe IT is in fact a good time. How would you read the data?

I don't see IT as a button necessarily. The way I read the data is that the Spike in interest rates have made IT very unaffordable to buy a house. Right now.

You've got that the mortgage are what like seven percent interest status even slightly higher. So peel just can afford the same level of house that they did before. I mean, mortgage es were at three, three and half percent like a more and half ago.

Now I think what's kind of interesting is that even in the one thousand nine and eighties, the early one thousand nine hundred and eighties, when interest rates were like fifteen percent, you still had fifty percent thought I was okay time to buy a house or attractive time to buy a house. So for the number to be this low tells me that is not just about interest rates. I think consumer confidence is also plumbing and people are feeling more insecure.

So I think this is another economic indicator that things are looking really shake you right now. And i'll tell you one of the the knock on effects of this is gna be that people can move because in order to a move, you have to sell your current house and then buy a new one, and you're not going to want to sell your current house when Prices are going down. And then for the new one, you're going to lose your three percent mortgage.

You if you get a new one at seven percent. So you're talking about to buy anything like that, how you 怎么样。 So freezes the market, IT freezes mobility. I think over the last few years during coverage, you saw tremendous movement between states. I think that sw down a lot now because people just can't afford to trade houses.

So as a result of that, I think this content is gonna rise because I think one of the ways that you create a pressure of wealth is that people are unhappy in a state. They just move somewhere else. Well, now they not going to do that.

You to a Better opportunity for you, your family, whether that schools tax is a job, lifestyle, say, yeah, you can you you're onna, reduce joy in the country and IT also IT grows with Price discovery doesn't in your mother if you don't have a fluid market here, then how does anybody know what their houses worth? And and this just again creates more A A frost. I think freeport .

has said this a couple times. Three work you can correct me from wrong, but like the the home is like the disproportionate majority of most americans wealth, right?

All their wealth.

how? So I mean, there is that fact to IT.

yeah. And then what does that do for how was attention savings? Yes, OK. And you got in coming what's going on there bringing in your lunch.

Now I was looking, I was looking at you mentioned that for sale. Take one hundred and seventy five million dollars, but they just got Price to one forty. So i'm just taken a little again.

I mean.

me a lot of distress in the market soon. I'm predicting a lot of actually can we shift to the commercial side for a second? I just.

Yeah, but speaking of the real state market, so I want to give an update on cems o theory. I was talking to broker the other day, and so here hear the stats that they gave me. So IT was a local broker than someone from blackstone and their fans of the part and just came up to me.

We started talking about was happening to go shut up, shut out to them, didn't take, didn't take a photo, but but I vent their friends of the pot. So we start talking about what's happening in surface go real estate. So the S F.

Office market this level said as ninety million square phy, they said the vacancy rate is now thirty five percent, says over thirty millions were feet vacant and vacations still growing as leases and and company shed space because some of that space that they are not using, not for subway, everyone is, what about AI? Is A I going to be the savor? The problem is that AI companies are only that only about a million square feet of demand.

So one million out of thirty million is going to be absorb by AI. And I think maybe that number grow over time over the next five, ten years as as we create some really big AI companies. But this is not going to bail out service to go right now.

The other thing is that VC back startups are very demanding interns to the attention improvements. And landlords don't really have the capital and not to put that into the buildings. And starbrook are not the kind of credit worthy tenants that landlords really want.

So this is not going to bail anybody out. They say there are a ton of zombie office hours, especially in somma, and all these office towers are advancing to be be owned by the banks, which are going to liquid ate them. And they're gonna find out that these loans that they made are going to be written off because the collateral that they thought was blue chip that was back king of those loans is not so blue ship anymore.

So I think we've got not just a huge commercial real problem, but it's going to be a big banking problem as basically, people stop pretending you right now they're going to restructure loans is not pretending extend you reduce the rate on the loan but add term to IT. But that only works for so long. If this keeps going, if the market keeps looking like this, I think you are going to a real problem and and that will be a problem in the banking system. Now services go is the worst of the worst, but they said that new york is similar, and all these other big cities with empty office towers are directionally.

I mean, you are right now for the psychic con conference. And IT is packed. The city is packed, getting anywhere.

There's gridlock. You can't walk down the street, got to walk around people. Every restaurant IT is dynamic.

And that I talk to people about offices and they said people are staying in their houses and their tiny new york apartments instead, going three train stops to their office. They go to the office water today's week, unless you're like J P. Morgan or some other places that they drop the boom.

But there's a lot of people still working from home. The finance people have all gone back. Media people are starting to go back.

So there, there are three to five days here, and the city is booming. Contrast that has spent the last two weeks in safran, cisco, walking from somma to the embargo back. Dad, nobody in the city is like literally a ghost town.

It's a real shame. It's a real, real. And I wonder if these this is the question I have A U sax.

Can they cut a deal? Can they go to, like, months to month? Rand sublets, you know, Lucy guy, just give people any dollar amount to convince them to come back.

Is there any dollar? And because i'm looking for a space for the incubator in samedi, we're beginning a tunit in bound, but the Prices are still really high. And like how do I cut a deal here? Because shouldn't people boy, lowering the Prices dramatically or they are just pretending? Or or will I get a or definitely .

coming down big time, especially for space, that sort of commodities, not that desirable. But what's happening is, according to the people I talk to, is that the demand, the people who actually are looking for new space, they only want to be in the best areas and they want to be in the U. S.

Buildings that I have the best amities. And so that sort of commodity office tower, where there's barely anybody ever there, like no one wants that. So I think people rather pay a higher rain. I mean, the rain will still be much lower ply, be half the Price of what I used to be. But they d rather pay a little bit more for that, then get like us on the office hour.

We can talk about all this without talking about two cases, tragically, a shop lifter, a criminal who was stealing from A A drug store in cesc, I got shot in. The video was released, i'm sure you've seen in sex. And then here in new york, everybody's talking about this one incense of a marine trying to subdue a violent Thomas person with two other people.

And it's on everybody's minds here. And brook Jenkins is not prosecuting in sentences. Go the shooter.

They look like, you know, uh, a clean shoot, as they would say in the police business, an appropriate and its tragic to say this. But the person did charge the security guard. The security guard did fear for their life and shot him. So brigg's is not pursue anything, but in new york city, there are, they are pursuing manslaughter. For the person who did seem a bit accessed from the video, it's heart to tell what the reality is in these situations and IT thoughts on a day with these two cases in two, two cities.

Yeah, look, I mean, the only time you can get a story. D A excited about prosecuting someone is when they act in self defense or defensive others. I mean, this marine anal penny is his name.

He was acting in defensive others. The person who he stopped was someone with an extensive criminal record who had just recently engaging attempt to knapping, who had punched to elderly people, had to dozens of arrest. In fact, people on redit were talking about how dangerous this person was.

Apparently a dozen years ago or so he was seen as more of like a quirky, like Michael Jackson and personator R. P. performer. But something happened disappoint to a redit post that I saw where something happened. And there are some more psychological break.

And then since then, he had dozens and dozens of of crimes, and they just keep letting loose through this revolving door of justice system we have. And now look, no one likes to see him basically dying. And yet, too bad.

It's orrible that that happens. I don't know though, that if you are trying to stop someone, I don't know how easy IT is to precisely control whether you use too much force or not. So I think denial penny has a strong case that he was acting in self defense and defensive others.

And there were two other people, by the way, who are holding this person down.

There are three of them restraining him.

And what university new york seat to me of all different backgrounds was, this is not a race issue. The other, I want to, the other people were people of color. IT was not a race issue and they're trying to make you into a race issue in both these cases. And this is literally what happens is just having been through this in new york in the seventies and eighties.

when you do not, whose they who's they when you say .

trying to make a change, protests on the street both, and go in new york, people protesting these, as you know, justice issues. The fact is, if you do not, if you allow lawlessness for too long, a period time, you get a bernie gets situation and burning, gets people can look at up. In the eighties, I was a kid when IT happened, but they tried to move somebody.

He had a gun, he shot him. And like, this is what happens if you allow lawlessness for extended periods of time. It's just your basically gambling. And what happened to berny .

gets he got not .

guy the case he got not guilty, but I think he had legal gun, so he was guilty of that gets thing was really um crazy because at the time the climate in new york and this one thousand nine hundred eighty four shooting there was a portion of people who I don't want to say they made a hero, but they made IT. I see this is what happens if you allow us to be assaulted forever. We're going to fight back at some point.

That was divide in new york when I was a child, 4， fifteen years old. And this happened. He was charged with attempted murder.

his name of a vigano I group that .

used to walk the streets to something that almost signed up for the guardian Angels. I went to their head course because I was practicing martial arts, and I thought I would check IT out, and they had their office in house kitchen. I didn't want of joining, but what they would do is they would just ride the subway.

They would wear a certain type of hat and where a garden is, a shirt. And all they did was the subway a red berry, and they would just ride the subway. And you felt kind of marts.

Were you taking take one though? I was in take one down. Now this is before I mix Marshall ts, but they just roll the subways.

And honest, i'd been on the subway with the many times you felt safe. And IT wasn't vigilantes. They were gardening Angels.

They use that term. And many times they would do exactly what this marinated, which is try to subdue somebody who is committing crime. I was, I had two distinct instances where people tried to mug me. You know, writing the subway ways in new york in is two distant times, and one was a group of people, and one was one person like IT was pretty scary. Both times I navigated IT, but I was yeah not pleasant in the hates york.

See one more thing about this, honey john, nearly case to look at. The end of the day, this can be litigated. I don't know all the details.

They're going to have to litigate whether dano penis use of force was successive or not. But but here's the thing is that the media has been presenting Jordan nearly by only posting ten year old photos him and leaving out crucial information. This was A A report.

So again, that is why I mentioned in the whole mico Jackson in person or thing is that the media keeps retrained nearly as innocent, harmless guy who is this like delightful Michael Jackson personator. In truth, he hasn't done that in more than a decade because, again, he had some sort of mental break. And since then he's been arrest over forty times, including for attempting to kidnap a seven year old child.

And so the media is not portraying this case, I think, in an accurate way. And I think as a result of that, IT leads to pressure on the da to prosecute someone who has, I think, strong self defense claim. Or you know maybe the da just want to do this anyway. And IT gives the D A cover to do this.

sorted. M, I mean, and you know that we had .

this back forth with, why is CNN being an accurate to things sex?

They're basic, CoOperating with all brags interpretation in the case, and are trying to make the case against penny look as damming as possible.

You want they just take a trade down the middle is a tragedy. We have a screw up situation here. We got a mental health crisis and a tragedy for every involved on the berny gets stuff he served eight of the twelve months sentence for the firearm charge and he had a massive ve forty three million dollars civil judgment against him in one thousand nine ninety six decade later this.

this, this is a little different than that gets things because pulling out a gun and shooting somebody well.

yeah.

and he was penny is a train marine.

right? He's trying to mobilize.

He has to believe that he's just trying to to do nearly and so using a choke hold to kill him, that's an unfortunate consequence of what happened. But he was trying to restrain the guy as far as we know, right? As far as we know.

Yeah, I mean, tragedy all around. We got to have long. I tweets ted like, I don't know why we love the post office. Maybe we can make that like once a week. And we do all of that space and allow every american who suffer from mental illness to check in to what used to be the post office. You know, maybe like once, we can obviously give those people very gentle landings, but I don't think we need post service more than once or twice a week.

And then let you let's reallocate tes the money towards mental health in this country where anybody who sick, who feels like their violent or feels like their suicide, can just go into a publication de a facility and say, i'm a sick person, please help me this would solve a lot problems in society. We've got a mental health crisis. We should provide mental health services to all americans. And it's a obviously easy thing for us to afford to.

And if we had done that, then this never what had happened.

exactly. I mean, literally you have sax who wants to baLance the budget saying, hey, this is something worth spending on. We can all agree on .

this compare to the impact on society, I don't think would be a huge expense.

We would save money. We save money because our city, like sandro, could become quite livable or new york, if, and then you've got, forbid, these terrible schools otz. You know, if you avoid even one of them is thirty people's lives or ten people's lives.

So we convert post offices. What we need to do is stand up scale shelters and IT doesn't need to be done on the most expensive land.

Give outside of cities. Why is there is no expectation in europe for like paris or london to be affordable or hung to be affordable? There are affordable places, thirty minutes outside of those places where you could put these facilities.

I just when I asked one question to sex, because I don't know, and I know sex is a little, little deeper into this time. What is George sources motivation for putting in these little less insane? D as like I understand that was able to buy them, their low cost is not a lot of money. Okay, I understand that, that stable sticks. But what is his actual motivation for causing chaos?

cities. Listen, we can't know exactly what his motivation is, but what he did is he went into cities where he doesn't live and flooded the zone with money to get his preferred candidate, electors. D.

A. Now the reason he did that was a change of the law. And the way that he changed law is not through legislators the way you're supposed to Operate, but rather by abusing prosecutorial direction. So in other words, once he gets his sorda elected, they can change the law by deciding what to prosecute and what not to prosecute. And that's why there is so much low in these cities.

But there's a Better path.

yeah. But this is not the only way that soros has, I say, imposed his values on cities that he does he live in. Where live? I think he's in new york guy, i'm not sure.

But he's gone far beyond that, obviously, in these elections. But also, he's done this across the world. Sr, us.

Has to think called the open sight foundation, which sounds like a spreading democracy al values, but in fact is commenting regime change all over the world. And he's been sponsoring and funding color revolutions all over the world. Now, if you like some of the values he spreading, then maybe you think that's a good thing.

But I can tell you that the way this is perceived by all these countries all over the world is a great, tremendous dissension and conflict. And then they look at america. They basically say, you, this american billionaire coming into our country and he's funding regime change and IT makes amErica look bad. Now he's doing this, I think, with the CoOperation of our state department, a lot of cases and maybe the CIA, I don't know, but this is why america, Frankly, is hate at all over the world as we go running around meddling in the in the eternal affairs of all these countries.

This is all there like that, was that I heard, and people around him doing these of things in similar .

is that is the idiot sun Alexander, who's really now pulling .

the strings on the fortunate. You would you allow source to speak up in summer, would you? I have sorrow or sun, and they going to explain themselves .

if there are no problems. There is article that alexandros has visited the White house like two dozen times during the bian presidency. This is an an extremely powerful and connected person.

I mean, sure he listen up on OK. We'll see you all next time. This is episode one two nine of all in.

we will see an epo de one thirty.

your winter.

We open sources to the fans, and they have .

just .

got crazy with.

We should all just get a room and just have one big, huge orgy because they always like this, like sexual attention, but they just.

We do.