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The Importance Of Looking Beyond The Data

2025/5/26
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Jason in the House

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Lee Carter
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Jason: 我非常荣幸能邀请到李·卡特,一位卓越的民调专家。她不仅精于数据分析,更擅长解读数据背后的故事,这使她在众多民调专家中脱颖而出。她对词汇的敏锐运用和对政治现象的深刻理解,让我对她的观点深信不疑。与她交谈总是充满活力,她对生活的热情也深深感染了我。 Lee Carter: 我认为民调既是艺术也是科学,需要避免个人情感的干扰。理解人们行为背后的原因至关重要,仅仅理解数据是不够的,还需要理解数据背后的原因。特朗普能够以独特的方式与人们沟通,这使他在2015年和2016年取得了胜利。在2020年,他没有坚持“让美国再次伟大”的口号,而是反对激进左派,这可能导致了他的失败。理解人们的诉求,而不仅仅是看数字,这一点非常重要。现在人们不愿意透露自己的真实想法,因为一切都变得两极分化。我们需要质疑一切,并确保我们与正确的人交谈。人工智能可以帮助我们快速了解趋势,并指导我们关注的重点,但如果以错误的方式使用人工智能,并认为它可以取代我们,那会让我感到害怕。我的工作是用数字讲述选民的故事,希望人们理解总统的支持率是高是低,以及人们为什么想要改变或不想要改变。

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The episode starts by discussing the recently passed "one big, beautiful bill" in the House of Representatives. It highlights the role of Speaker Johnson and President Trump in its passage and looks ahead to the Senate's consideration of the bill, noting potential changes and challenges.
  • The bill passed the House by a narrow margin (215-214).
  • The bill will now move to the Senate for further consideration.
  • Reconciliation rules will affect the Senate's ability to amend the bill.
  • The bill's final form may differ from its House version.

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Well, welcome to the Jason and the house podcast. Really appreciate your time. Thanks so much for joining us. We got a good one today. Somebody I think you've probably seen or heard along the way. Lee Carter from Maslansky and Partners.com.

Anyway, she is one of the better pollsters out there. She's not one of those people who just goes out and like, here's the survey, fill it out, and then let me just tell you what happened. No.

It's the analysis. It's making sure that you've got good data, good input, and then you're able to interpret it. And that's what makes her so good, so viable. And she's also kind of one of these keen people who are really good at vocabulary.

Not necessarily my strong point. Wasn't in school, isn't now, but she understands the power of words and the way they're applied. So look, we're going to talk about the success and the phenomenon that is Donald Trump. We're going to talk about what's going on in the world of politics.

where are Democrats, Republicans at this part of the world and what's going on now and learn a little bit more about her because you know what? Lee Carter is just a fabulous person. And like I've said, I've been with her on camera. I've seen her on camera. But behind the scenes, she's just a wonderful, energetic, full of life person, which I'm just saying for a pollster,

it's just a little different. And so, um, I think you're really going to enjoy this and, uh, I look forward to chatting with her. So hope you're able to stick around for that. We're going to talk a little bit about the news cause, oh my goodness, there's a lot happening. And then of course, we're going to highlight the stupid because there's always somebody doing something stupid somewhere. So let's get on with it. Uh, again, thank you for joining us. Um,

You know, what's just happened recently in the last few days. And, you know, this podcast is about to come out here right on Memorial Day. What's happened is unbelievable. What Speaker Johnson was able to do in the House of Representatives. Now, there is criticism on the one big, beautiful bill.

No doubt you can find you can pick it apart. Some people want more cuts. Some people want less cuts. Some people want this. Some people want that. A lot of credit to President Donald Trump, because without his input, no doubt they would still be in separate camps.

But you also have Speaker Johnson, who, you know, when I was in in the House of Representatives, a freshman came in and I was on the House Judiciary Committee. I was not an attorney. Now, a lot of people criticize me for saying that because it sounds like I'm bragging, which it is. But I was not an attorney on judiciary.

Now Speaker came in. That's where I got to know him a little bit. And I can't say I'm really close to the guy and I talk to him all the time. No, no, no. But I got to know him and he just knew kind of right away that he's just a rock solid person. And inevitably you are going to disagree with him politically at some point, somehow, somewhere, right?

But you do have to tip the hat and give him a lot of credit for coupling together the votes. I think it was 215 to 214 with one voting present. That's kind of a wimpy way to do it, folks. You can't just show up in Congress and say, I was here. What kind of vote is present? I was here, but I couldn't make up my mind when everybody else did. And so anyway,

The reality is that he got the votes and got it over the edge and did so in the timing. He said he'd get it done before the holiday, and he did. But now the bill is probably going to look different when it gets to the finish line for another vote in the House of Representatives. So then now it goes over to the United States Senate. Now, remember, this is reconciliation. So it's unlike other bills, right?

reconciliation has to do with spending it spending revenue you can't legislate on it so let's pretend you have a paragraph you wanted to insert to change the way the military does something

Can't do that. That would violate the rules of reconciliation. So a lot of strange words like the Byrd rule. Byrd stands for Senator Byrd, B-Y-R-D. Then there's what's called the Byrd bath. There's all kinds of, you don't have to dive into it unless you really want to and go look it up or go. I mean, there's a lot of detail there.

But now it goes over to the Senate and the point is you don't have to get to cloture, which is 60 votes. Normally, if you're passing just a regular old bill, you have to get 60 senators to agree to proceed. That gets bypassed with reconciliation. So at some point, the Senate's going to bring it up and there's going to be some voting here and there's going to be some amendments and there are going to be some suggestions that

from some real fiscal conservatives over there in the Senate. Think like Senator Mike Lee. Rand Paul has already just said, I want nothing to do with this bill. It's going to have the record increase in

in certain categories. So look out folks, it ain't done yet. You got Senator Johnson from Wisconsin, a true fiscal conservative. He's gonna have to, you know, he gets an opportunity to weigh in here too. So it'll be really interesting to see what happens. I think a lot of people are wondering if that $40,000 threshold for SALT, the state and local taxes, is going to stay in place.

Or are they going to reduce that back? A lot of people, myself included, want to see that at zero. I don't think we should have to supplement bad management and high taxes in high tax states like New York. I just don't. But there's going to be those types of discussions. Can you accelerate some of these discussions?

you know, expenses, reduction in expenses. Are all of the doge cuts in there? I don't think so. So there's a lot of things that will be looked at. But the question is, can, will, what's going to happen with the Senate? And, you know, ultimately, it's a team sport. And can Republicans all get on the same page at the same time? I don't know. But we're going to find out. But it is moving. And it did get past...

the first and probably one of the most difficult hurdles. And hats off, like I said, to Speaker Johnson for what's going on there. Next topic I want to talk about, Memorial Day. It's just important that we pause and thank the people who have served and given their lives. The people who have, there are millions of them, I think it's north of 10 million people, that have answered the call

stepped up, served their country and made the ultimate sacrifice. I like to say that, hey, we can't just do this on Memorial Day and the Fourth of July and, you know, some very important holidays. And holidays probably isn't the right word, right? I think there are a lot of people getting together. They're celebrating life, celebrating the United States of America, waving the flag, roasting up some hot dogs, you know, doing the American thing.

maybe attending a baseball game or car race or something like that. I mean, there's a lot of ways to get together and celebrate America, the freedoms and the liberties for us. Our families all get together down in southern Utah. It's going to be really fun to be together. We got six grandkids, Julie and I. Six grandkids. Hard to believe. I just like that's still surreal to me.

It's just so fun. You know, it's going to be hot in the 90s. They're going to be out in either a pool or a splash pad, you know, getting wet, running around. It's really, it's amazing that the freedoms and the opportunities and the unbelievable prosperity that we have in this country. But there has to be that time where you also salute and thank God.

with a humble heart, those that have served. And try to do that, not just, I don't want to be preachy, but I think we got to make sure we do that in our actions, not just our words, not just a prayer, not just a service, but that we do that in perpetuity, because there's a lot of people whose loved ones aren't going to be with them. There's going to be a lot of people who are serving overseas. And I know Memorial Day was very specific to

those that have fallen. But I think Memorial Day also has a soft spot in our hearts for those that have been, that are actually away from their families and are serving, or maybe they're first responders. It kind of expands out like a concentric circle. I think that's okay, too. I think it's love of country and love of the flag and love of America and this amazing success that it's had.

Anyway, it's one of my favorite holidays, but it's more than just a holiday from not going to work. It's something that touches all of our heart. And I hope you and your family are also able to pause, recognize, and thank in your deepest hearts those that have given the ultimate sacrifice. All right, let's move on to the stupid because you know what? There's always somebody doing something stupid somewhere.

All right, I got to go to this story coming out of Perrysburg, Ohio. And this comes from Fox News dot com, where they had this allegedly a 24 year old Venezuelan who had somehow doctored up some documents and all that and decided to, you know, reenroll or enroll in high school.

Now, I don't know what kind of sicko this guy is and what he was trying to do as a 24-year-old, trying to go hang out with 15-year-olds. But I can't imagine that can't be good. And I'm just glad the authorities got on it. They evidently arrested him. I've seen some videos of this, some stories of this. It's all an allegation. We'll see. But you're here illegally, and then you're trying to go back to high school? Yeah.

Aye, aye, aye. Something kind of weird and sick going on there. Alright, now, time to go on to the next one. This one just still bothers me. This is the City Council of Providence, Rhode Island. Okay, this happened a little while ago, I recognize that. But the City Council of Providence, Rhode Island, the allegation is that they hosted a flag-raising ceremony at the City Hall...

It wasn't the American flag. It wasn't the Rhode Island flag. It was the Palestinian flag. What the... How in the world? That's about the stupidest thing I've ever seen. Like, that is just... It's offensive to so many and so... You want to engage in the political debate about what we should do with this and that? Go ahead and do that. But...

Don't be raising the Palestinian flag on city offices. That just makes me mad. I think it's stupid. I think it's wrong. It certainly made the list here. It's just unbelievable. So that was just fundamentally wrong. That's the stupid for today because you know what? We're in a really happy mood. We're going to be talking to a really happy person. So

Let's get on with it with Lee Carter. Let's bring her in. Well, thanks for joining us, Lee. I'm honored that you would come on and join us. And, you know, I was doing a few shows here at Fox and I thought, why have we not had you on? Lee Carter, you're like one of the best at what you do. And I'm thrilled that you're coming on today. I'm so thankful you asked me. What fun. No, you're really good. And I want to understand it because, you know,

Trying to understand America and pierce through what's happening, what's not happening. I've seen a lot of like pollsters that are, they're just not very good. I don't, I don't believe them, but when you get on and talk about what's happening, what's not happening, I believe you. Why is that? Well, I think polling is part art and part science, and it's really hard not to bring in your own feelings into the mix. And, and,

I feel like for every piece of data that you can find that says people feel one way, you can find data that says that they feel a different way, or you can just focus in on one thing or the other. And I really believe strongly that all of this starts with trying to suspend how you feel and understand what's going on with everyone else. And so I'm always curious about why people feel the way they feel or why they're doing what they're doing. And

you have to, if you don't just understand the why, the data, you can't just understand the data. You have to understand the why behind the data. Why do people feel that way? And once you start to understand the why, then the data starts to tell you a story. And so for the last decade, sort of watching the rise of Donald Trump has been fascinating because he was speaking to people in a way that nobody else was speaking to them. And a lot of people were questioning the data. A lot of people were questioning what was going on because it just didn't make sense to him because he was so unconventional.

But once he understood what he was doing and why people were resonating with him, it was so clear that he was the only one that was going to win in 2015 in the primaries and then 2016 in the election. And, you know, interestingly enough, in 2020, when we were watching what he was doing, he sort of went off his own script when he was running. Instead of running on Make America Great Again and when he was the fighter for the American people, he was running against the radical left.

And he was always running for the American people. And I think that sort of cost him some chips back in 2020. And then when he came back in 2024, he was ready to be our fighter again, and it worked. But I think you really have to understand and spend time understanding what it is that is appealing, not just what the numbers are telling you. Well, I want to dive a little deeper into that. But before we get to that part, Lee, we want to understand you, because I see you on air. I've

interviewed you on air, but I also see you behind the scenes. You're just like a perpetually fun, happy person. And I love that about you. So, um, let, let's go back to like, I was born in, and I'm not talking the year I'm talking to like where, and just kind of walk us through. Cause I want to understand how Lee Carter became Lee Carter. So let's, let's start back when I was born in, was born in New York and Long Island. Um,

And I was raised in New Jersey. So I've been back and forth in the tri-state area. Most of my life went to college down in South Carolina. And I've always been an extremely curious person. I've always wanted to understand why other people were doing what they were doing. And I've always been a little bit of an overachiever. Did you have like brothers, sisters? Yeah.

Oh, of course. I have a brother. He's my older brother. And he would tell you that he is the reason why I am who I am today. I tried to emulate him in every way when I was growing up. How much older is he?

He's three years older than me and he has five children. I adore my nieces and nephews and he has two grandchildren. Wow. Well, tell me about it. I got six. So yeah, it happens before you know it. So yeah. Okay. So you have, sorry, you have a brother and he's older. So he was bossing you around from the very beginning. Yeah.

Yes, he was. Taking credit for all your successes. And it was obviously not his fault anytime you fell down and skidded your knee or whatever you did in terms of falling down.

That's right. But were you like, were you playing sports? Were you like, like what were you into music? What were you doing as a little kid? So I say I was designed for water, not for land. I've never been a very good athlete when it comes to traditional sports.

um although i love to play and cheer people on i um but i was a swimmer um i was always a very good swimmer and uh could spend all of my time in or by water even now really what was your sport like which which stroke would you like what did you my favorite strokes were backstroke and breaststroke backstroke not everybody's favorite is backstroke i loved it i loved it you

You just like propelling yourself in the water, not being able to see where you're going. Is that what that was? Exactly. Exactly. Like the counting that you had to do to get to the wall. OK, so I look, I did competitive swim when I was very little, but I didn't get to be the point where I could count my strokes and understand that I was about to hit a thing of cement.

So you did that. And it's not exactly, it's not like you're coming from Florida or, you know, a sunny, warm state. The water had to be cold and you had to get up early, right? Absolutely. What did it teach you? What did you learn from swimming? Just keep going, even when it's hard. And the other thing about swimming is it's a team sport, but it's also an individual sport. So sometimes the most important thing is trying to beat your own record rather than trying to beat everybody else's.

So it taught me a few different things. It also connected me a lot to my father, who was also a swimmer. So I thought, you know, I wanted to have that piece of things. But I like both the individual and the team component of it. Interesting. Interesting. All right. So you were doing some sports. Yes. But what made you, like, how did, where did this curiosity start to manifest itself?

So there's a few different things. So one of the things that I became in high school, I had a teacher who was a history teacher, and he brought American history to life for me in a way that made me absolutely love our country and love our history. I had a grandfather and a family who was extremely patriotic and very into politics. My great grandfather was a congressman.

He was Fred Hartley from New Jersey. He was the author of the Taft-Hartley Act. So I always had a huge passion for politics.

When I was in high school, I was the chairman of the Young Republicans of New Jersey. I was like super geek. One of the first things that I I always had a job starting when I was 14. I worked at a great deli, which is still open in New Jersey. And they just opened. My niece just opened with owner a new one, which I'm really excited about there. But when I first stopped was at a deli in New Jersey. And what were you doing? You're slicing the meat. What were you doing? I was.

I wasn't allowed to slice the meat until I was 18. You couldn't operate heavy machinery. But I did make a mean sandwich and get coffee and do all the things and work the counter. Oh, good.

So I did that in my first paycheck that I got from the deli. I took to the well, I didn't take it to the bank. What I did is I ordered the PBS box set on Ronald Reagan, which was really long, but I loved it. So I was really into politics. I was really into history. You were a geek. Let me just pause right there.

Not many kids working at the deli are cashing that check going right to buy the box set on Ronald Reagan. That's all in. That's all in right there. I was all in. So you could see like the leanings are coming out that way.

The same time, I was always fascinated with messaging and language. So I would ask questions at the dinner table like, what's the difference between a nerd, a geek, a dork, and a dweeb? They sound like the same thing. And if you look them up in the dictionary, it would say it's the exact same thing, but they're totally different, right? So I became obsessed with messaging as well. Interesting. And storytelling.

And so that sort of happened all through high school. And then I went to college and I took a sociology class and I wanted to understand why people behave the way they did. And so I became a sociology major along with a history major. And I loved it. And it all sort of came together in this like package of what I was interested in, politics, messaging, history, human behavior. And it wasn't like I was sitting there saying, you know, when I grow up, I want to be a poster.

But so I went into, I graduated from college. I went into marketing and I was just sort of, I was doing well at it, but I was kind of bored. And I was like, I always thought I was going to go to politics. I was always thought I was going to do something different. What am I going to do with all of this? And then I heard the

The founder of my firm, his name was Frank Luntz, speak at a conference. And I thought, oh, my goodness, here he is talking about messaging, human behavior, politics all in one place. And that's a job. So I tried to meet him and he had absolutely no interest in meeting me at all. Zero. But I did spend the next year trying to make sure that he would answer an email from me to say that I wanted to work for him.

which he never did. But his partner, Michael Maslansky, who is my partner now, was opening the New York office and ended up I got connected with him. And the rest is history. And I've been here for over 20 years now. Wow. Frank is no longer my partner. Michael is my partner. I have two other partners here. And just every day is I feel so lucky that I found something that is a combination of everything that I was interested in all in one place.

So when you look at pollsters, I mean, I look at them and I just think that's not right. There's no way that's true, that kind of stuff. But you have this success rate and this like I just feel like you're telling us the truth. But I get the sense that some of these others, they're just making it up. Well, I don't know that, you know, people are making it up as much as.

You know, you read the data the way you want to read the data. I even look at, you know, I look at people looking at the president's approval rating right now and saying, you know, this is the lowest approval rating of any president in 100 days. It's a total disaster and all of this kind of stuff. And I look at it and I'm like, well, let's see what the real story is. So he's at 44 percent approval right now, which is high.

Almost 10 points higher than Joe Biden was when he left. So it's not that bad, but you can look at it and say it is horrible relative to others. But how many people in the first hundred days did as much that is really pretty unpopular with some people? I mean, what he did with immigration was solid and strong and one of the reasons why he was elected. But the people who hated him really didn't like what he was going to do there.

What he's doing with tariffs, a lot of people are like, is that economic policy or negotiating strategy? And the people who look at his economic policy are terrified. And so they're giving him a bad rating. But the bottom line is this. Only 2% of people that voted for Donald Trump would change their mind right now. Right. And so what he's done is he's solidified his support.

Well, making some really tough changes that are unpopular because, of course, the people who oppose them are making hay out of it. But nothing's really changed all that much. And so I think you have to look at the whole story and the whole picture before you just look at your numbers. And I think sometimes people will just look at one poll and say that's the story.

But if you look at just one poll or one survey, you might not see something else or that there's a different way of asking the same question or the way that it's understood. And then the other thing is a lot of pollsters aren't talking to people. They're just looking at these spreadsheets and they're not out there doing qualitative or focus groups or one on one conversations voters to find out what it is that they're thinking and really understanding from a qualitative perspective what's going on.

And if you're just looking at an Excel spreadsheet, you don't hear the same story. It's the same thing in a business. You know, it's like the CEO that doesn't walk the floor and really understand. You can totally miss what's going on with the culture of a place. It's the same thing, I think, with Poland. You have to understand all of it together. You're listening to Jason in the House. We'll be right back with more of my conversation with Lee Carter right after this. Ryan Reynolds here from Intmobile.

I don't know if you knew this, but anyone can get the same premium wireless for $15 a month plan that I've been enjoying. It's not just for celebrities. So do like I did and have one of your assistant's assistants switch you to Mint Mobile today.

I'm told it's super easy to do at mintmobile.com slash switch. Upfront payment of $45 for three-month plan equivalent to $15 per month required. Intro rate first three months only, then full price plan options available. Taxes and fees extra. See full terms at mintmobile.com. Well, let's go back to that data collection because you're right. I mean, the world's changed, right? I mean, when I was growing up, we had to dial your telephone numbers and everything.

You could look up, you know, you get the yellow pages and the white pages and still look our name and addresses in that telephone book. And I'm sure in terms of polling, it was a lot easier to get a hold of people. But now with, you know, social media and the Internet and all the spamming, how do you actually like collect quality material to so that, you know, you're grabbing the pulse of what's actually going on?

It's not easy. I was going to say very careful. It's really hard to get people, I think, to be completely direct with you on what they feel right now, because everything is polarized. Even like which coffee you choose can be a political statement. Which car you drive, you know, yes.

For sure. And so I think there's a lot of people who are reluctant, first of all, to answer the phone. Second of all, to get online and say anything that they really, really think. And those that do are a certain kind of person. So that's why I believe we have really sophisticated ways of trying to find our samples and make sure that the people that we're talking to are the right people. But more than that, I think we have to question everything. If something like it has to pass the smell test.

There's all kinds of survey panels that are out there. And those are like just databases of people that you can reach out to to try and get them to respond to things. You have to look at the quality of them. You have to make sure that you have the geographic dispersal. You have to understand what all you're looking at. But more than that, like when the data comes back, sometimes something just doesn't feel right. If it doesn't, you have to look at the data and understand why.

And I think it's just so important that you're always skeptical as you're looking at a poll and not just take everything at face value. And the other thing is, if you're a pollster, you start looking at all kinds of things behind the scenes. Like when you look at a poll, is it weighted? What does weighting mean? It could mean that

70% of Democrats responded and only 20% of Republicans responded. And so what they do is they weight the number, the percentages, so that it ends up looking like it's representative sample, but really more Democrats than Republicans answered. And they're just extrapolating what they think more Republicans would say.

You don't look at the waiting. Sometimes you can miss the bigger story because you want to make sure that you're getting a representative sample of who you're trying to talk to. And if it isn't, you should question it. So there's a lot that goes into it. And now, and these aren't yet so popular on the polls that get covered in the media, but they certainly are popular among pollsters and researchers trying to figure out what's next. AI is creating synthetic audiences.

And that's say, like, what would somebody how would somebody who meets this demographic react? And they're trying to use predictive tools to see how they react. And I think we'd be really careful of those because they use historical data. But that's a separate story from what you're asking me about, which is the polls that we see on TV right now.

Well, and that's, yeah, the fakery, the deep fakes. I think this is a big society problem we're going to have to deal with because not only does it manifest itself in social media and online and entertainment and real life. I mean, it's just omnipresent now. And you look at where the investment's going and the direction it's going and how AI is just going to be all absorbing. Man, that's going to take a...

It's got to come up with some real creativity for somebody who's trying to capture the pulse of what people are really thinking because it can swing so fast and so hard and something can go viral that's just not true. It's literally just made up. Yeah. And we have to be so careful about it. But the thing that's exciting about AI, like we have to be so, so afraid and so, so scared and so, so skeptical about all of the fakes and all that. And I'm really concerned about synthetic audiences being

all sorts of things that are coming our way. But I heard somebody talking about how to lean into AI in a way that's more productive. And AI is a new technology that's exciting. And he said, in the same way, though, that somebody wouldn't say their big differentiator is that you have electricity so you can work longer hours.

You shouldn't say your big differentiator is AI. It's like, how can you make it? How can it make you look work smarter? Right. And so what we can do with AI as pollsters now is pretty cool. Like I can get back a survey of, you know, thousands of people and it can read the trends for me and help me understand quickly where there's maps or where there's there's like heat maps of people feeling the same way about something.

And then it'll help me direct me on where I need to focus. But if you use AI in the wrong way and say, this is the answer that's going to replace us, that scares me. But I think the thing about it, it's like, okay, I have access to a light switch that makes me be able to work more efficiently, but it doesn't change the human part of it. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Oh, that makes sense.

So, Lee, I want to go back and understand you a little bit. So it's one thing to be a nerd and want to be able to... I don't know which of those four you used. What were they? Nerd? A nerd, a geek, a dork, and a dweeb. Yeah, I wouldn't call you a dweeb or a dork, but maybe...

maybe it's a little dorky to want to read numbers and data. Yeah. Is that fair? It is. I think that's fair. It's definitely fair. But interacting with you, communicating with you, you're not that person. That's what I mean. That's not who you are. And so not to put everybody in a box or just say you have to be one way or the other, but

You know, a lot of people can look at the data, they can analyze the data, they can scrub the data, they can come up with their best interpretation, but not many people can talk about it and have something that's really complex and then be able to synthesize that into a 90-second summary that makes sense to a lot of people. And so where did you get that skill set? Because that, I mean, that's a rarity, right?

A lot of practice. Now, the thing that I have always found... Were you practicing that when you were like in seventh grade? Well, you know what? When I was in seventh grade, I liked to... I was also a theater, like a little third theater geek. So I was in Oklahoma when I was in seventh grade, too. So there's a little geekness there, yeah. Yeah, yeah, there is. But I still like to present, right? I like public speaking. And I...

I really like the idea of conveying ideas in ways that resonate. And I find myself like, I'm always, I've always been sort of like a go between like a people in some ways, a people pleaser, but I don't want to define myself as a people pleaser. Like how do I explain this to someone who disagrees with me? I have, you know, a family on the left and family on the right family that's super religious family. That's not, how do I create bridges so that people can understand each other? And that's always something that I've tried to do. And, and I think,

I heard what somebody, I met with a woman who is a CFO at a very large financial services company. And I asked her, I was like, I know on paper what your job is CFO, but what is your job? She's like, my job is to tell the story of our business with numbers. Yeah. I was like,

So my job is to tell the story of what's going on with the electorate with numbers. And that's what I try to do. I don't want it to be complicated. I don't want you to have to remember that it was, you know, the approval rating is 44%. I want you to understand why.

I want you to understand the story of what's going on. I want you to understand the why the president is either surging or crashing or why people want change or why they don't, because it's a story. And the numbers just help us tell that story. And so see, I rest my case how good you are at that. You gave the best description I've heard yet. You're listening to Jason in the house. Stay with us. We're going to be right back.

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But it is an interesting skill set that somehow between swimming your older brother who's taking all the credit and theater that out pops somebody who could actually do that at the highest level and do it with a smile on her face. So more power to you.

My brother, actually, to give him credit, is he saw the rise of Trump before I did. And it was early. I mean, he came down the elevator, what was it, June of 2015? And within a couple of weeks, my brother said he was going to be the candidate that was going to win. And I was like, really? Really?

And I respect my brother a lot, but I was like, why? What is it about him? Like, you know, showing up at the Iowa State Fair in a helicopter. I mean, I knew he captured everybody's attention, but why? And he said something to me that was really interesting. And we're talking about, he said, he's going to, you know, he's fighting for the everyman. He's fighting for people like me. And I said, yeah, but don't you think that's what the Democrats are all saying? And he said, no.

And I said, think about all the welfare programs they're offering and all of that. And he said, you know what the difference is? He said, the Democrats think that's the best I can do. Donald Trump believes I can do more. Wow. That was insightful. Yeah.

I was like, at that time when he's showing up at a helicopter in Des Moines. Yeah, that makes. Yeah. And it was like he was bringing back the American dream to people who had told that they weren't going to be able to have it anymore. You know, your jobs are gone and they're not coming back. You're clinging to your Bible and your guns. And Donald Trump came back and said, that's not true. But it was my brother who explained it to me for the first time. And I was like, wow.

That's captured it. Yeah. He should take all the credit. He should. He should. I don't know what his name is, but brother Maslansky Carter, John Carter, John. Okay. We'll just call him John. John. Well done. Well, yeah. Yes. Um,

We're running out of time here, Lee, but I got to learn a little bit more about you. So I have some rapid questions to dive a little deeper into you. You ready? You ready? I'm ready. I'm going right for the gusto here. Pineapple on pizza, yes or no? Yes. Lee, you were on such a roll. I was so impressed. The judges hate this answer. Not on the regular, not on the regular. But if it was the only pizza that was available to me and I was hungry and we had just finished a late night shift, I would have it.

All right. That's believable, but it doesn't like the answer still. Way to try to dig out of it, but that did not suffice. But I believe you. I believe you. I trust you. My standard order is pepperoni. Amen to that. And I'm hungry. You're making me hungry. All right. What was your high school mascot? The Bears. The Pingree Bears.

Because there's a lot of bears in long Island or where were you out? New Jersey. They got bears. There are a lot of bears in my, my, my parents' hometown and where I grew up. There are a lot of bears. My mom often sends me pictures of them, um,

Eating her bird feeder food, which is kind of scary. Yeah, that's there are more bears than people realize, even though it's New Jersey. Yeah, that's that's very true. If you what is the worst class you ever took? Like you just bombed it like it was terrible. You didn't do you didn't get anything out of it. And your teachers were not impressed. What what class was that?

All right. I actually liked the class, but I bombed it. And it was called the Cultural History of Japan. And it was in college. I was a history major. And I had trouble. It was so complicated. Memorizing the names, there were so many people that had similar names.

And I bombed it. I love the stories of the people, but I messed up. I messed up on the test because the names were just so hard. And I think my professor thought I didn't try that hard because it was unusual for me to do that poorly. Yeah, that was that. That is hard. You just named like, I can't believe I didn't take that class. I would have never made it through that class. That's OK. That's very understandable. Yeah.

So if you weren't doing this in life, what would you be doing? Oh, gosh. If I weren't doing this, I would probably be doing some kind of real estate flipping houses interior design. Oh, there you go. I could see that with you. That makes sense. Yeah. No, that makes total sense. What was the first concert you attended?

This is totally random, but I went to the Grateful Dead. Really? You're a deadhead. Your first one. How old were you? I was in seventh grade. Seventh grade. Your parents let you go to a deadhead concert? Yes. Yes. I went with and I had no idea what I was getting into. One of my best girlfriends, I went with her father and we went with her father to go see. And then the second concert I went to see was Billy Joel.

Oh, that would be fun. The Deadhead concert. That is totally random. It's not what anybody expects. Your first concert, what? Grapefruit Dead? All right. Second to last question. What's your favorite menu item at Taco Bell? Oh, good grief. I'm going to go with their quesadilla.

Oh, that's a cop out, but we'll let it slide since you blew the other food question. That was not quesadilla. You just thought of what's the first piece of Mexican food I can think of. You're not a fan of Taco Bell, are you? I'm not the biggest fan of Taco Bell, but my nephews are.

Yeah, I am. That's the problem. I have this 13-year-old palate that still loves McDonald's, Taco Bell, like all this. I like Whoppers. They're all good. I love McDonald's and I love Burger King. I'm a big burger person. Yeah, I love the Burger King commercials when they involve the king. Those are good. All right, last question. Best advice you ever got? Oh, gosh. Best advice I ever got. The thing that's coming to mind right now is

Is my uncle told me that you should never leave work before your boss when I first started. That's good. But I he also told me that you should never repeat anything that you don't understand. Right.

And I think that was really, really helpful. That's wisdom. Yeah, that's very good. All right. Very quickly, you wrote a book. Tell us about the book, how we find you on social media. Tell us that. So I wrote a book called Persuasion, Convincing Others When Facts Don't Seem to Matter.

And it's essentially a nine step plan and how to convince anyone of anything using a tool I call active empathy, which is really trying to understand other people's perspectives. A lot of what we've just talked about today, and I walk you through how to do it with with

with different examples, there's a workbook in it. So you can do so whether it's just trying to convince somebody that you're right for a job or trying to convince the relative that you have a hard time communicating with about politics, it can be anything. It's the nine steps that you walk through. And it's, it's really based on, you know, decades of research that I've done trying to understand what messages win and out there. And so that is my book. It's available where we can buy books. I don't care. Usually isn't a good response.

No, no. OK, I got to take that out of my vocabulary. All right. Generally shuts people down. So and then social media. How do we find you? Yeah, I am. I developed my social media before I realized that I was ever going to be on television. So I was like, it's not the easiest. So I am Lee Hartley Carter. But my follow me on Twitter at LH underscore Carter.

But it's if you find me, you can find me under Lee Carter pretty easily and Instagram as well. Oh, very good. One of the best out there. Lee Carter, thanks so much for joining us. And I really do appreciate it. Thanks for sharing a bit about you and, you know, your bad pizza habits and everything else. We really do appreciate it.

Now I'm going to go off to Taco Bell and make sure that I have my order right for you next time I see you. Very good. Very good. Lee Carter, thank you. Thank you so much for Lee Carter. See, I told you she's full of energy. She's like a dynamic person and she's a pollster.

That's like a unicorn. You got to be able to talk to the unicorn. Anyway, she's just a wonderful person. Glad to call her a friend. Thank her for taking the time. And I hope you found it as interesting as I did. She's just a wonderful, interesting person. I would love it if you could rate the podcast. That'd be great. You can subscribe to the podcast so you get it. We come out once a week.

And then it shows up and hey, want to listen to that one? Great. If not, yeah, we'll listen to the next one. Also want to remind you, we've got a library of like, I think we've done like 200 something podcasts at this point. So if you got somebody in the news, somebody at Fox, somebody in politics,

that you're interested, we might have already done one. And if there's somebody that you want us to interview, then direct message me on X, at Jason in the house, something like that. Somehow communicate it. That would be wonderful. I want to remind people, you can listen ad-free with a Fox News podcast plus subscription on Apple Podcasts. And Amazon Prime members can listen to the show ad-free on the Amazon Music app.

Also, check out Fox News Podcast Network over at FoxNewsPodcast.com, FoxNewsPodcast.com. I'm Jason Chaffetz. Thank you so much for joining us. This has been Jason in the House. It's the Will Cain Show. Watch it live at noon Eastern, Monday through Thursday on FoxNews.com or on the Fox News YouTube channel. And don't miss a show. Get the podcast five days a week at FoxNewsPodcast.com or wherever you download your favorite podcasts.