What is the Future of the Israel-Iran War and Will the U.S. Get Involved?
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You're listening to State of the World from NPR. We bring you the day's most vital international stories up close where they're happening. It's Tuesday, June 17th. I'm Greg Dixon. The conflict between Israel and Iran shows no signs of cooling. The two sides are still striking each other from the air.

President Trump has been taking to social media to communicate warnings to Iran's leadership and the Iranian people. He demanded Iran's, quote, unconditional surrender. And he warned everyone in Iran's capital, Tehran, to evacuate. That caused a wave of frantic departures for the people who live there.

NPR spoke to one resident of Tehran who said she and her family tried to leave but had to turn around. Her name is Bauran, and she asked that we only use her first name because she's afraid of government reprisal for speaking to the media. Our car is not working. It doesn't have gas.

She says they couldn't fill up their tank. All gas stations had lines a couple miles long, and people were waiting up to four hours for fuel. The roads out of the city were bumper-to-bumper traffic.

To understand where this conflict could be going and what the U.S. role might be, Steve Inskeep spoke to Karim Sajidpour. He's a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, specializing in Iran. Since its inception in 1979, the Islamic Republic of Iran has spent decades seeking to eradicate Israel, and it now seems to be

that Israel is pursuing the same goal, trying to eradicate the Islamic Republic. Their targets have expanded. They've established...

aerial dominance in Iranian skies. And it doesn't seem that Prime Minister Netanyahu is intent on ending these military operations anytime soon. You make a helpful point in that while Israel conducted a preemptive attack here, a preventive attack, as they would put it, it's almost as if these two countries have been at war for almost half a century.

That's true and it's unfortunate because in contrast to most modern geopolitical conflicts like between Russia and Ukraine or Israel and the Palestinians, this isn't in my view a geopolitical conflict. There's no direct land or border disputes between Iran and Israel. Persians and Jews go back thousands of years.

This is really an ideological battle, and it's, in my view, a war of choice for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Prior to the 1979 revolution, Iran and Israel had cordial relations. So in my view, this

toward Israel, the official slogan of death to Israel from 1979 onward is not a reflection of the national interests of Iran. Okay, so it was a war of choice by Iran to target Israel. Now in the more recent frame, it is...

an attack of choice or an offensive of choice by Israel to go after Iran in this bigger and bigger way. You said that it raises the question as to whether Israel is seeking regime change in Iran. What has President Trump said over time about that possible goal?

Well, that's an interesting question because as recently as 30 days ago in President Trump's speech in Riyadh, he lambasted those who have sought regime change in the Middle East, interventionists and nation builders who he said have destroyed far more nations than they've built and had no ideas about the realities of the societies in which they were intervening.

And early in President Trump's term, the fear that the Israelis had was that he was too aggressively seeking a deal with Iran, seeking diplomacy with Iran. And now the fear that a lot of Trump's MAGA base have is that he's getting sucked into another Middle East war that they've long feared.

Well, I want to talk about the realism of regime change, what's possible and what's not. A large number of military leaders have been killed. People are asking if political leaders might be targeted next. Israel certainly seems to have a lot of capabilities. But then the question is, does Iran have a bench? Can they elevate new leaders? Is their system set up to be durable and produce new leaders as well as maintain political support?

Well, this is a large country, right? 90 million people. It's a regime which has been in power for 46 years. It's true they have an old supreme leader, 86 years old, and there's a lot of talk about succession to him. But

But the bottom line is that despite the regime's unpopularity, and I suspect they only have about 15 to 20 percent popular support, the idea that the Iranian society can organize a protest movement while they're under aerial bombardment is just highly unlikely. People are incredibly anxious and they're thinking about their daily safety and security.

And so I think that Israel can effectively eliminate Iran's top military and perhaps even political leaders. But that's not doesn't seem to be a strategy to to transition into a different type of a regime. Is a collapse, as we saw in Syria last year, just not very likely here?

Anything is possible, Steve. You know, even up until a week before the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, U.S. government officials were talking about engaging Assad. So they didn't see that coming.

But in this context, it's tough to see a regime imploding while it's fighting for its life and it believes that it either needs to kill or be killed. And as you point out, there's not a viable resistance movement as there was in Syria, at least not something that we can see publicly. Kareem, thanks so much for your insights as always. Thank you, Steve. Kareem Sajidpour is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C.

And that was NPR's Steve Inskeep. For the most part, Israel and Iran's attacks on each other have been strikes from the sky by missiles and planes. That's meant countries caught in between the two foes have found themselves in the flight path of attacks, among them Jordan and Lebanon. And as NPR's Jane Araf and Aman tells us, people in those neighboring countries are coping in different ways. There's nothing more serious than war, the casualties, the destruction.

The danger of being hit by shrapnel from weapons launched up to a thousand miles away. The Jordanian and Lebanese governments are trying hard to stay out of the conflict. For most of their citizens, there's nothing they can do but watch. And that's exactly what many are doing. This is an extraordinary scene this weekend on a rooftop bar near Beirut.

Lebanese musician Alain Otaik plays saxophone while guests snap photos of Iranian missiles streaking across the sky.

In the viral video, he wears a multicolored kimono, and he really leans into the music. We caught up with Atayek by Zoom. At first, I thought this was a firework, and then after I realized, no, it's not a firework because everybody was tense. So I decided to continue playing and give this love to everyone who's feeling, you know, emotionally disturbed and stuff like this to make them feel good. Atayek, whose stage name is O. Alan Sachs,

says bars and restaurants in Beirut are mostly still full.

He says all the wars Lebanon has been through have made people here a bit different. Me personally, I live in the moment. And be living in the moment and not focusing on what's happening around you with music will help you in this situation, you know what I mean? Lebanon has been officially in a state of war with Israel for years. Despite a ceasefire in November, Israel is still launching airstrikes against the militant group Hezbollah.

Lebanon really wants to stay out of this conflict and in any case has no real air force to speak of. Jordan, helped by U.S. air defenses, has been intercepting Iranian attacks aimed at Israel to minimize the danger to Jordanians. Air raid sirens have sounded several times a day since Israel began attacks on Iran. Jordan has a peace treaty with neighboring Israel.

But Israel's war in Gaza against Hamas has killed more than 55,000 Palestinians. And there's no love lost for Israel here. Despite the danger, a lot of Jordanians have been brewing tea and going up on their roofs to watch the missiles when they hear the sirens at night. So many that the government has warned them to stay indoors. Jane Araf, NPR News, Amman.

That's the state of the world from NPR. For more coverage of all sides of this conflict, go to npr.org slash mid-east updates. Thanks for listening.

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