The phone call that could change the world
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Welcome to the World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. I'm Toby Gillis, joined today by Alex Dibble. Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are to speak on the phone about Ukraine. The US President says the division of Ukrainian assets, including land and power plants, will be discussed. But so far they've been a long way apart on the terms of a ceasefire deal. So what do both of them want from this call? And...

How are they planning for it? We'll look at each of them in turn and we'll start with Putin, with Emily Ferris, who specialises in Russian domestic politics in the International Security Studies Department at the think tank RUSI. Emily, will Putin be going it alone in his planning for this or are there advisers he actually does trust helping him?

Oh, well, these are lots of big questions about whether Russia has a strategy, how many people really feed into that strategy, whether Putin is a rational actor within his own frame of reference. Look, I guess the answer to some of these things is, yes, Russia does have a strategy. Putin does have a strategy. It's increasingly...

a small group of people that make decisions, key decisions, especially on big things like this. One of the big problems, I think, is that this kind of ceasefire and all the discussions around it have really taken Russia by surprise. They don't think they thought that the negotiations between the Americans and the Ukrainians would move quite so quickly. So what you can see now is...

them sort of stalling for time. So their insistence on things like hashing out the real details, I think just looks like a delay tactic to buy themselves some time. And that's because of a number of things. Firstly, because obviously they're progressing reasonably well on the battlefields. They're making incremental gains. It's also because their southern Kursk region is not currently under Russian control.

And also they're trying to think about, you know, what could possibly be included in the details of a ceasefire agreement that could materially benefit them. So whether it looks like, you know, the economics around how you support those occupied territories, what a peacekeeping mission would look like, whether it's the kind of defanging of Ukraine politically and security wise. All of those things are considerations that I think are probably going into the debate at the moment in the Kremlin.

That's interesting the way you put that, because the narrative around this ceasefire is that it breaks every Putin red line. Are you suggesting he doesn't actually know what his red lines are? So I think it's probably a couple of things. I think, first of all, throughout this conflict, it's not really been clear what actually does constitute a red line for Moscow. So at the beginning, it was sort of any Western aid to Ukraine is an absolute red line. But clearly that was crossed multiple times in that conflict.

that wasn't a red line. Then at the moment, the red line that everybody is talking about is whether you have these European troops, which as far as Russia is concerned, look like NATO troops. And I think that genuinely is actually a red line for Moscow. They've always been quite unequivocal that they see...

NATO troops or any kind of boots on the ground from a foreign perspective as a real security threat by NATO. And you don't need to agree with it. You don't need to buy into it at all. But certainly, I think from the Russian perspective, that is seen as kind of crossing the Rubicon, as it were. Emily, we all know Putin's plan has been to take all of Ukraine. Has something changed here that's actually brought him to the table and brought him to this call?

Well, it's probably a few things. The first is actually this is a reasonably good deal on the table for them. It's pretty much ceding to most of Russia's demands, which is that it gets to keep Crimea. They get to keep, it looks like, most of the territory that they've gained in Ukraine. It looks like they might be able to get things like the removal of Zelensky, which is what Putin has been pushing for for a while. You know, he often says he's an illegitimate leader.

and that he would like to see elections in Ukraine, because obviously what they really want is a leader in Ukraine that's rather more sympathetic to Russia, if not even pro, which I can't see happening, by the way, in the short term. But certainly, you know, in a few presidents' time, we might see something quite different coming through in Ukraine. You know, as to whether, you know, Putin has other considerations, I mean, there's

There's the sort of economic question around whether Russia can keep the war up in the next few years. And I think most sort of quite deep dives into the Russian economy suggest they probably can. But I think all of that is kind of factoring in to...

some of the discussions about whether Russia should come to the table. But one of the big problems that I think nobody really quite foresaw was that it looks like some of the public opinion coming out of Russia seems quite negative towards a ceasefire deal, any sort of deal. So sort of the assumption that the Russians, of course, would welcome the idea of a ceasefire, would welcome the idea of not having to send, you know, their sons and their husbands to war. But actually, the consensus seems to be among the majority of Russian people that, you

Yes, they would like a ceasefire deal, but it needs to be on Russia's terms. And I think if there's any sort of sense that Russia is capitulating, losing territory, there's a risk that, say, this could buy time for increased American arming of Kiev or any opportunity, say, for greater European defence spending, which is obviously on the table at the moment, what we were kind of discussing. I think all of that is seen as quite a big loss for Russia in the end.

With all that in mind then, Putin stalling for time and all, does this phone call have any chance of changing anything? Um...

Well, it seems like things are moving rather quickly. And these phone calls that I think in normal diplomatic terms where we'd say, oh, you know, do they really make a difference? I think, you know, the ability of the Americans to act unilaterally, whereas within the European Union, of course, you have to have consensus from all the states, is rather different. So it means you actually do, things do move rather quickly. So, yeah.

What I've noticed so far really is that the Americans and the Russians have mostly talked about their own bilateral relationship. Ukraine has really been kind of a bit of a sideshow for them. This is probably the first time that they're actually sitting down to talk about Ukraine for the first time. Who knows what the outcome of that call really will be, but at least from the Russian side, it's a really important acknowledgement diplomatically that the Americans are prepared to speak to them, that they are engaging with them on an equal footing. That's something that's always been...

I think a bit of a preoccupation for Russia, even in Soviet times, it's always kind of sought this sort of recognition as an equal power from the Americans. So that in and of itself is a huge win for the Russians now having some kind of relationship and being able to have their voice heard, I suppose they would put it, in and of itself, I think is a huge deal for them.

Emily Ferris, Russian domestic politics expert. Thank you. Now let's turn to The Times' assistant US editor David Charter to look at Donald Trump's preparations for speaking to Vladimir Putin. David, there's probably a feeling that the US president is happy to shoot from the hip a bit in calls like this. Is that wider the mark?

I think this one is a bit more serious than just winging it for Trump. I don't deny that it may seem that he does that, but among his staff, certainly, a fantastic amount of preparation is going into this call. And Trump is very well across this particular topic because the ideal outcome is continued progress towards the

Russia joining in a ceasefire. That's going to be tricky because we know that there are numerous Russian demands, which at the moment are apparently unacceptable to Ukraine. So Trump wants to keep the momentum going. He's trying to manage expectations, knowing, as his team does, that Putin is very unpredictable, but also deep down,

Once, really, to control the whole of Ukraine. That was his original war aim. And so can they reach a realistic, permanent peace, a permanent truce that Putin is really going to sign up to?

Yeah, that is an interesting element, David, because it's usually Trump we call unpredictable, isn't it? Do you think anyone is telling him what a lot of people think, which is that Putin's just playing him on this? And if so, how might that impact these talks? There are one or two voices that can get through to Trump to make that kind of point that he's simply being played by Putin.

I don't actually think Trump's ego would allow him to even consider that as a possibility seriously, because Trump is the kind of negotiator who likes to think he's got

most of the cards and that he's got the upper hand. But there are one or two people, people like Lindsey Graham, who's a senator who's not in the administration, but he's close to Trump. He does play golf with Trump. Lindsey Graham is perhaps one of the few voices in the Trump inner circle who can get through and put the kind of point that you're suggesting that, do you know what, there's another side to this. Putin's just stringing you along.

I mean, that's also the role of allies like Britain. And of course, Sir Keir Starmer has also said Putin's just dragging his feet. That kind of comment at that level, I think, will filter its way through to Trump. So at least there's a chance of him hearing it, whether he would accept it is another matter.

So little impact on the call at all. OK, David Charter, The Times' assistant US editor, thank you. Donald Trump will of course be looking to use all his powers of persuasion to improve the chances of peace when he speaks to Putin. But what will happen if the Russian president simply refuses to play ball and rejects a ceasefire?

That question is something we looked at on last Wednesday's episode of The World in 10 and is really worth a listen. For now, though, thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. We'll see you tomorrow.

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